Just shorted another 1 btc (leveraged to 3) @ around 601. I know I am taking a risk here, but it is these kinds of risks that has paid off. Plus I have the emotional stability to handle a loss.
I remember when I went long for about 20 btc's in late Dec/ early Jan, when BTC took a dive from it's ATH, and then rebounded to 990. @ about 960, I decided to go long for 20 btc's, and boy did that hit me right in the face when BTC took a dive. But I didn't lose my cool and took a loss when it went below 900. From there, I re-analyzed my positions and the market, and made it back fairly quickly.
Topic: Xiaoxiao's trading/forecast blog - page 5. (Read 16369 times)
After some deliberation: I've decided to short .7 btc's (leveraged to 2.5) at 581. Stop loss is at 650. A buy order set at 510.
This weeks forecast:
500-659
Trades: none, for last 2 months.
not logarithmic, but i could see something like this happening:
500-659
Trades: none, for last 2 months.
not logarithmic, but i could see something like this happening:
Xiaoxiao: Are you based in china?
No sir.
This week's forecast:
550 - 700
Trades : none, 5th week in a row...
Xiaoxiao: Are you based in china?
I know what you mean, but what I meant was that all these crap coins sure makes bitcoin look good which is bullish, it is a sign people are into cryptos, but it may also cause inflation.
I think altcoins are all going south, to be honest. Spend a bit of time looking into the market and you will find a whole heap of disillusionment. It's the biggest feeling out there by far.
I think you should get back in the Kitchen Ramsay!
Only joking, but please check out the Litecoin charts and dig up some news from the past couple of months. Litecoin is probably the biggest catastrophe out there at the moment in altcoinland.
EDIT: regarding the OP, I do not agree on the BTC prognosis. I think we are heading up after a few more days stable. By the end of the week.
I know what you mean, but what I meant was that all these crap coins sure makes bitcoin look good which is bullish, it is a sign people are into cryptos, but it may also cause inflation.
I think altcoins are all going south, to be honest. Spend a bit of time looking into the market and you will find a whole heap of disillusionment. It's the biggest feeling out there by far.
I know what you mean, but what I meant was that all these crap coins sure makes bitcoin look good which is bullish, it is a sign people are into cryptos, but it may also cause inflation.
I think altcoins are all going south, to be honest. Spend a bit of time looking into the market and you will find a whole heap of disillusionment. It's the biggest feeling out there by far.
Mass adoption is at least 3 or 4 bubbles away
Mass adoption is a couple ETFs away.
This week's forecast: 590-700 btsp price
trades : none 4th week in a row.
What's up with this stability? Everyone expecting a bubble, nothing happening.
trades : none 4th week in a row.
What's up with this stability? Everyone expecting a bubble, nothing happening.
What is your forecast for August ?
To be honest, I am contemplating shorting. And the reason is because all this great news right now is a FRUITION of this past bubble, and a lot of inexperienced people are seeing it the other way around or seeing these new small good news to be causing a new bubble. I'm still not sure what happened this last bubble, but it may have to do with some shady things going on with the chinese exchanges. Market manipulation in China is unbelievable.
This is the smartest statement I've seen on this board.
My own guess is this, but it is projected way too far out and so many things can intervene and shake it up. I think we'll get some upwards price activity not for reason of good news, but because of a changing market infrastructure -- notably, more leveraging and more Wall Street bots. I think we are all going to be taken for a ride really soon and if you catch the peak you'll be sitting pretty but if you are a day late then you'll (not as in you, specifically, but as in people generally) be living out of a cardboard box.
I expect July 20 modest price movement for those behind the game trying to enter cheap, then late July rally that speeds up and then takes on a life of its own as disillusioned youth start to gamble with their financial aid dollars and then... the crash... cascading margin calls on overleveraged traders PLUS a big exchange falling. Hopefully I am wrong because that would be an existential crisis.
Who knows... but next bubble seems to be long ways ahead.
This week's forecast:
700-500
trade: none, 3rd week in a row no trades made.
Keep up the good work. Your analysis is sensible.
What is your forecast for August ?
To be honest, I am contemplating shorting. And the reason is because all this great news right now is a FRUITION of this past bubble, and a lot of inexperienced people are seeing it the other way around or seeing these new small good news to be causing a new bubble. I'm still not sure what happened this last bubble, but it may have to do with some shady things going on with the chinese exchanges. Market manipulation in China is unbelievable.
This is the smartest statement I've seen on this board.
My own guess is this, but it is projected way too far out and so many things can intervene and shake it up. I think we'll get some upwards price activity not for reason of good news, but because of a changing market infrastructure -- notably, more leveraging and more Wall Street bots. I think we are all going to be taken for a ride really soon and if you catch the peak you'll be sitting pretty but if you are a day late then you'll (not as in you, specifically, but as in people generally) be living out of a cardboard box.
I expect July 20 modest price movement for those behind the game trying to enter cheap, then late July rally that speeds up and then takes on a life of its own as disillusioned youth start to gamble with their financial aid dollars and then... the crash... cascading margin calls on overleveraged traders PLUS a big exchange falling. Hopefully I am wrong because that would be an existential crisis.
Who knows... but next bubble seems to be long ways ahead.
This week's forecast:
700-500
trade: none, 3rd week in a row no trades made.
The auction is an absolute bearish sign. You don't beat the government's predicitons.
the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.
Bitcoins is different than other seized assets. Your example of the ferrari is a terrible analogy.
they're both property. same would happen with real property as well. bitcoin isn't money to them. how is that a bad analogy? you're over here quoting gordon gecko like he's a real person, telling us to short bitcoin because its traded sideways for 2 months. i think ill take bad analogies over your bad advice any day.
lol when did i tell you guys to short bitcoins. I am on the fence, that is my whole point.
The auction is an absolute bearish sign. You don't beat the government's predicitons.
the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.
Bitcoins is different than other seized assets. Your example of the ferrari is a terrible analogy.
they're both property. same would happen with real property as well. bitcoin isn't money to them. how is that a bad analogy? you're over here quoting gordon gecko like he's a real person, telling us to short bitcoin because its traded sideways for 2 months. i think ill take bad analogies over your bad advice any day.
The auction is an absolute bearish sign. You don't beat the government's predicitons.
the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.
Bitcoins is different than other seized assets. Your example of the ferrari is a terrible analogy.
Nope. The government is required to liquidate any assets it seizes. They don't have a choice. Therefore, the presence of the auction is neither positive, nor negative. The outcome of the auction, however, turned out to be quite positive.
+1 - the fact that all bidders were outbid, by a single entity, i now forget his name.. is bullish.
He was prepared to overpay and part with $18M (or so the rumours go) to get his hands on those coins.
The auction is an absolute bearish sign. You don't beat the government's predicitons.
the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.
Bitcoins is different than other seized assets. Your example of the ferrari is a terrible analogy.
Nope. The government is required to liquidate any assets it seizes. They don't have a choice. Therefore, the presence of the auction is neither positive, nor negative. The outcome of the auction, however, turned out to be quite positive.
The auction is an absolute bearish sign. You don't beat the government's predicitons.
the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.
Bitcoins is different than other seized assets. Your example of the ferrari is a terrible analogy.
The auction is an absolute bearish sign. You don't beat the government's predicitons.
the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.
The auction is an absolute bearish sign. You don't beat the government's predicitons.
The greatest bubble according to Money Never Sleeps is the "cambrian explosion". Is bitcoin just another mega version of the tulips? Perhaps. The thing that worries me is all these new cryto's coming out. Dogecoin, soccercoin, sexcoin... come on? next thing you know there will be something called shitcoin
That was launched 9 months ago: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ann-new-coin-launch-shit-coin-sht-307419
Jump to: