Does anyone here think monero could explode 100 times, during the next bitcoin bubble?
several people have stated they think monero will go 1000x in the future. you can read aminorex's posts for some insight.
pt 1.
no offense but I think we need to get rid of the get rich quick scheme idea.
i like monero for the simple fact that it's actually appears to be anonymous, fair and has developers. if you read up some on bitcoin - the analytics for both tracking down who owns bitcoin AND where a bitcoin has been are improving at a faster rate than bitcoin adoption. expect this to continue. Add in the fact that the bitcoin bullies (btc foundation, main dev & biggest pools) are all MORE than happy to co-operate/be fine with the centralized applications (circle, coinbase, etc) enforcing government rules and you wind up with two problems.
1. bitcoin is too transparent and governments that are actually oppressive (since people can't mine it anymore & have to buy it thru a centralized service) can come very close to regulating, banning or worse use it for a tracking mechanism.
2. since bitcoins can be tracked - they can be flagged as evil and rejected by centralized services as no good. Or stolen ones could technically be forced to be returned from the people they got stolen from. and it's totally possible to prove that.
essentially these things add friction back into the currency that shouldn't be there (in my personal opinion) for the type of adoption we are aiming at (taking power away from the political powers that control money supply and giving it to the protocol).
pt 2.
as the earlier poster mentioned crypto is in a bloodbath. But I don't think we've seen ANYTHING yet. there are too many libertarians who've bet the farm on it, too many rich kids, too many scammers ... this place is still thriving on hope that bitcoin will go to 100K per coin.
many of the people prediction a 1,000X price jump also predicted that bitcoin would go to $100,000. making predictions is this place is a fools errand IMO. so probably those the most educated to do so won't be shouting their opinions from the rooftops. But rather the pumpers who want you to buy all you can afford and back the truck up on the credit card are the ones making the bold prediction. Because your investment makes them rich.
pt 3.
the economics of both bitcoin and monero are broken. they just are. the shrinking monetary supply is structured close to (not quite) a pyramid scheme. having the difficulty level go up proportionately to adoption is PLENTY to make early adopters rich. tokens get proportionately more expensive as the difficulty of getting them gets harder (both of these factors are driven by adoption). but for whatever reason the gold bugs decided to dump out tons of coins early and just a few late.
this makes it impossible for even MINOR adoption to happen without early adopters getting rich. this also adds to the friction of adoption. in addition to this at the current rate of adoption there is no way miner fees will pay for a secure network. imagine this.
even if the monero network was worth 100,000,000 bucks. and 90% of the coins are mined so the miners are competing for like 200 coins a day that are worth a grand spanking total of $1,200 ($6 bucks a coin @ the 100,000,000 market cap w 16.2 mil coins) plus say double that in transactions. That isn't going to pay for a whole hell of a lot of security.
the fundamental reason it's broken is that the reward (in tokens) goes down over time as adoption goes UP. the system will almost certainly cave in on itself if it doesn't adopt PoS or remove the hard coin cap limit.
Pt 4.
in my opinion there is a time horizon of several years between now and the point that people figure out this just isn't going to work. And the ability to transfer money almost instantly with no government tracking with it being recording in the blockchain is a massively cool thing. It could usher in a whole new era of economics in every thing from drug trade to wealth needing to flee countries with totalitarian rule.
at some point soon as the government cracks down on money (my understanding is the US govt has a backup of all bank transactions after 9/11) the solution to being able to do money outside the government is huge. And IMO monero is the best solution right now for this problem. it's more scalable than what they're trying to do with zerocash. it's more provable than darkcoin (and much less of a scam).
it's open sourced and the devs are known. so it could be a huge huge awesome deal.
but don't kid yourself. money is fleeing the market. it's built on bad economics. and if you're just in this to get rich your time horizon probably will be off.
decide why you're buying it. what will trigger you to sell it (price change? or another quality competitor?). decide how much you're going to put in it then wait.
DON'T do math on "how much money will i make if it goes to $10? how much if it goes to $100?" buy it for a reason. sell it for a reason. don't be nieve.
just my .02
This May I heard btc was going to be 5k in July.
