Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 126. (Read 3313076 times)

haha
the best will be 2 weeks from now, these guys will eat crow, what bad traders would buy XMR @450$ anyways lol
once RandomX comes into effect, should see nice run up going into the new year
prediction: 100$ by end of year, i really think RandomX is the best algo yet

Just my 2 monerujo

The last spike was 26 times fold. Let's take into account 50% loss in the spike of that because of the emission, adoption, bla bla blaaaa so that would end up in a 13 times fold.
0,006 * 13 = 0,078BTC/monero
0,004 * 13 = 0,052BTC/monero

I personally think our bottom will be 0,005'ish so that would end up at 0,065BTC/monero
My feeling tells me that we will hit the 0,065'ish mark a few months after the BTC halving, so keep on to your monerujo and then it will be lambo time  (respectively Lexus and Ducati time for me  )

cheers 

Sure, it's absolutely reasonable to assert that because the emission has effectively ended that there could be less selling pressure, however there were other massive declines at different points in the emission. For example, consider that there were massive losses in two month time frames two other times, 01Sep2016-01Nov2016 (80%) and then again 26Aug2017-05Nov2017 (70%), meanwhile the loss from 31Aug2014-31Oct2014 was actually a 77% loss while the >90% losses didn't come in until 14 months after that drop, where the yearly emission on those three periods was 16.23%, 8.46% and 154.98% respectively (source from : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?pli=1#gid=239466694), where now it's currently 3.39% per https://moneroinfo.herokuapp.com/ .

So unless you were to be implying that some point below 3.39% triggers the price to stop going down, I'd lean toward thinking the emission rate has significantly less of an effect when compared to market sentiment or something else entirely. I'm still not convinced that we don't have less than a year left, and as such still maintain that there is still more to lose from where Monero's at, despite what BTC does.

Ha, this is amazing! Well said.

Some clarity / good news on the regulatory side would be the perfect storm here. Imo Monero can run back to 0.0125 levels in a few days on very little extra inrerest.

I believe the first was because of the cripple miner inherited from the scamcoin bytecoin and the second was bubble plus asic iirc. Either way as you have stated it is a great time to stock up and i have grabbed a few m0ar yesterday. Unfortunately my lowball bid wasn't filled as well.

When did they stop requiring basic math skills at Russian troll farms? 91% loss from .035 would put us at 0.00315, not .001**.

Bitcoin has had two 90%+ declines in its history, from $0.17 to $0.01 in 2010 and from $32 to $2 in 2011. The Jan 2015 bottom was at 85% down from ATH and the Dec 2018 bottom at 84%. Note that it hasn't had another 90% decline in the last 8 years. Those are not regular occurrences.

Monero has also had two 90%+ declines, from $5.53 to $0.22 in 2015 and from $467.77 to $37.16 in 2018. Those bottoms are clearly established and hoping to get a 96% discount after you’ve missed the 92% off sale is a recipe for FOMO.

But please keep shoveling Siberian FUD coal into the steam engine, just try not to get run over when the train gets moving again.

Monero went from $6.50 to a quarter in first year when yearly mining emission was 100%. So at the bottom in one year emission doubled. Before that was even higher. Now yearly mining emission is 3.4% and that would take 30 years to double, but since it keep decrease will take more then a century.  

Top in BTC: 0.035
Now in BTC: 0.006
Lowest in BTC since: 0.006

a crippling loss of 83% at the lowest and is at it's lowest since peak right this minute

Top in USD: $475
Now in USD: $56
Lowest in USD since: $38

a crippling loss of 92% at the lowest and it's still a crippling loss of 88%

Years ago it went down from $6.50 to a quarter, which was a crippling loss of 96% and 0.01 to 0.00095, which was a crippling loss of 91% BTC-wise and we aren't even all the way there yet. That'd be at the 0.0014 btc/xmr or $19 mark so until I see either of those hit I really don't see a point in recommending a buy to anyone who hasn't already been buying it all the way down until this point. At least anyone looking to actually make money within the typical frame of next week or next month, or next quarter, or even next year.

Imagine losing 90% of your teeth. Or losing 90% of your tires where the only sane solution is replacement or implants at this point, viewed purely economically. So charts related voodoo aside, I think there's still plenty more to lose, while technologically there's not that much more to gain.

Viewed from the lossage side of things, March 2018 was the last time this was any good, viewed as if increasing price correlates to increasing success. That's 19 months, where the overall gap between when things sucked to when they were good last time was 26-27 months, and we're not past 70% of even matching that yet so if you've managed to find a comfort zone over these last months as far as managing to get away from checking the price every half hour it'd certainly still be reasonable to continue doing so for the time being.

This is explicitly a price speculation.

It plays on past events. I see many similar charts that predict 2017 will repeat again. Some even predict it next year instead in 2021. But yes, Monero was best top100 performer in 2016, since before that had high emission. So even if cycle will repeat we should not expect it to be as strong as 2016 and 2017 were.   But the chart is legit. Nothing different then million charts on this forum.

this explanation could be correct:

https://www.coindesk.com/trump-administration-popped-2017-bitcoin-bubble-ex-cftc-chair-says

when you know how it works for gold and silver markets.

^  Lol.  Didn't think there was a way to make XMR's chart look any better.  I was wrong.  The power of denial is strong with this one. 

I would agree with that 

Some long term hopium from reddit. I dont think it can go better then this

monero is running up https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/monero

He can run faster than he looks, you know...  He has like race horses' hooves inside those Air Jordans (or whatever sneakers) he usually wears.

Well I just bought m0ar.

Cool story. ELI5?