Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 126. (Read 3314316 times)

I can't say I'm a fan of Bitcoin.com and I can't stand BCH but it's nice to see monero getting listed on there anyway just so the n00bs see it when they get tricked into using that exchange.

The Bitcoin.com Exchange has listed Monero

https://twitter.com/BitcoinComExch/status/1188790055965528065

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BTSE has listed Monero

https://twitter.com/BTSEcom/status/1186344898640916480

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BTSE has added futures trading for Monero

https://twitter.com/BTSEcom/status/1189777190499446785

Cryptocurrency in Focus: Monero's a Rebel With a Cause

As regulators tighten the screws on cryptocurrencies to prevent illicit uses, Monero has doubled down -- and ultimately benefited from its unique positioning.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cryptocurrency/cryptocurrency-in-focus-monera-s-a-rebel-with-a-cause-15145095

Dude, so you are recommending buyers... more specifically new buyers... to not buy any crypto/monero at all until this "inevitable" continued down market based on passed market swings??

1) I will admit that I don't know shit about market trend analysis, but most of the time it's horseshit.  You are comparing one, two, maybeeee three events in the past that look similar in the market and trying to make that a hard science... I feel it's important to remember the value of statistical significance and knowing that these market indicators (especially in crypto) is still not a definitive thing.  I love all the graphs that people post here that insinuate certain things are going on in the market, but it's like studying astrology... sure, there are stars and planets floating around and shit that arrange themselves in cool patterns; but that doesn't mean there is a centaur in the night sky.

2) I think it's important to remember 'normal people' with "new money" don't typically have deep stacks of money they are trying to allocate into investments, and more importantly speculative/volatile assets like Monero/Bitcoin... Storing away money slowly and "stacking sats" is, and I believe will remain the best method of investment into the crypto-sphere.  You don't have to catch the falling knife perfectly to make a profit (if that's what you are after).

Makes me remember this legend

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEzNXzZy8e4

That looks an amazingly accurate analysis proving the bottom is pretty much in.   

Thanks - seems I have been right to be buying

No I just said that you can not compare anything with Monero first year. Emission inflation was huge. Same as was in Bitcoin, ZCash and now in Grin. ZCash is losing value for 3 years now. From 2000 BTC to 0,004 BTC. So much selling pressure as happened in beginning of 2015 for Monero did not happened after that and will never happen again.  Corrections happens after each price increase. They did, they do and they will do. But  strength of corrections will be smaller and smaller. This is actually what Stock to flow ratio tells us (what is widely misunderstood in crypto community).  Commodities with higher stock to flow ratio are more stable. They fluctuate less. Gold will increase value much less then Silver. It will latter on correct less also. 10 years old cryptocurrencies of course can not exactly follow patterns of 10000 years old commodities. But that is what stock to flow ratio tells us.





I am sure you can buy Monero at lover price then is right now but. You will not buy it at much lower price. Price of Monero will be way higher 2 yeas from now. At this moment I would strongly recommend to buy it. When price will go over $500 I will stop recommending, but people will only start buying then.

Well then I'm sure it'll be a pleasure holding with you all the way on down to 0.00315 some time next year fella, good catch I punched in 96% twice there rather than 91% and 96% as was intended. Regardless of that, the peak I was talking about was the one in May/June 2014, from which I recall it being a decent bit over $6.00, and not the peak you were discussing. It would help if exact dates were mentioned to begin with I suppose.

Despite that, Bitcoin had quite a bit of time it spent at the bottom of its 'two 90%+ declines', and this trough is exactly what I think this is heading into, and I again speculate it will be a time period of over one year and I personally hold anyone saying the opposite of that to be talking their bags up in order to exit a market they themselves have realized has a seriously high chance decline another 50% from exactly here. Certainly wouldn't be the first time someone has done that here.

And if it wasn't quite clear to you, I said very specifically that I wouldn't recommend buying if you haven't already been buying, not whatever you've seem to have read it as. This is because people who haven't been buying, often chase markets in an upswing .. for which I'm quite solidly convinced this'd be nowhere near a reasonable upswing until 12 months or more .. so telling new money to enter would be a very nasty thing to do right now, in my opinion.

haha
the best will be 2 weeks from now, these guys will eat crow, what bad traders would buy XMR @450$ anyways lol
once RandomX comes into effect, should see nice run up going into the new year
prediction: 100$ by end of year, i really think RandomX is the best algo yet

Just my 2 monerujo

The last spike was 26 times fold. Let's take into account 50% loss in the spike of that because of the emission, adoption, bla bla blaaaa so that would end up in a 13 times fold.
0,006 * 13 = 0,078BTC/monero
0,004 * 13 = 0,052BTC/monero

I personally think our bottom will be 0,005'ish so that would end up at 0,065BTC/monero
My feeling tells me that we will hit the 0,065'ish mark a few months after the BTC halving, so keep on to your monerujo and then it will be lambo time  (respectively Lexus and Ducati time for me  )

cheers 

Sure, it's absolutely reasonable to assert that because the emission has effectively ended that there could be less selling pressure, however there were other massive declines at different points in the emission. For example, consider that there were massive losses in two month time frames two other times, 01Sep2016-01Nov2016 (80%) and then again 26Aug2017-05Nov2017 (70%), meanwhile the loss from 31Aug2014-31Oct2014 was actually a 77% loss while the >90% losses didn't come in until 14 months after that drop, where the yearly emission on those three periods was 16.23%, 8.46% and 154.98% respectively (source from : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?pli=1#gid=239466694), where now it's currently 3.39% per https://moneroinfo.herokuapp.com/ .

So unless you were to be implying that some point below 3.39% triggers the price to stop going down, I'd lean toward thinking the emission rate has significantly less of an effect when compared to market sentiment or something else entirely. I'm still not convinced that we don't have less than a year left, and as such still maintain that there is still more to lose from where Monero's at, despite what BTC does.

Ha, this is amazing! Well said.

Some clarity / good news on the regulatory side would be the perfect storm here. Imo Monero can run back to 0.0125 levels in a few days on very little extra inrerest.

I believe the first was because of the cripple miner inherited from the scamcoin bytecoin and the second was bubble plus asic iirc. Either way as you have stated it is a great time to stock up and i have grabbed a few m0ar yesterday. Unfortunately my lowball bid wasn't filled as well.

When did they stop requiring basic math skills at Russian troll farms? 91% loss from .035 would put us at 0.00315, not .001**.

Bitcoin has had two 90%+ declines in its history, from $0.17 to $0.01 in 2010 and from $32 to $2 in 2011. The Jan 2015 bottom was at 85% down from ATH and the Dec 2018 bottom at 84%. Note that it hasn't had another 90% decline in the last 8 years. Those are not regular occurrences.

Monero has also had two 90%+ declines, from $5.53 to $0.22 in 2015 and from $467.77 to $37.16 in 2018. Those bottoms are clearly established and hoping to get a 96% discount after you’ve missed the 92% off sale is a recipe for FOMO.

But please keep shoveling Siberian FUD coal into the steam engine, just try not to get run over when the train gets moving again.

Monero went from $6.50 to a quarter in first year when yearly mining emission was 100%. So at the bottom in one year emission doubled. Before that was even higher. Now yearly mining emission is 3.4% and that would take 30 years to double, but since it keep decrease will take more then a century.  

Top in BTC: 0.035
Now in BTC: 0.006
Lowest in BTC since: 0.006

a crippling loss of 83% at the lowest and is at it's lowest since peak right this minute

Top in USD: $475
Now in USD: $56
Lowest in USD since: $38

a crippling loss of 92% at the lowest and it's still a crippling loss of 88%

Years ago it went down from $6.50 to a quarter, which was a crippling loss of 96% and 0.01 to 0.00095, which was a crippling loss of 91% BTC-wise and we aren't even all the way there yet. That'd be at the 0.0014 btc/xmr or $19 mark so until I see either of those hit I really don't see a point in recommending a buy to anyone who hasn't already been buying it all the way down until this point. At least anyone looking to actually make money within the typical frame of next week or next month, or next quarter, or even next year.

Imagine losing 90% of your teeth. Or losing 90% of your tires where the only sane solution is replacement or implants at this point, viewed purely economically. So charts related voodoo aside, I think there's still plenty more to lose, while technologically there's not that much more to gain.

Viewed from the lossage side of things, March 2018 was the last time this was any good, viewed as if increasing price correlates to increasing success. That's 19 months, where the overall gap between when things sucked to when they were good last time was 26-27 months, and we're not past 70% of even matching that yet so if you've managed to find a comfort zone over these last months as far as managing to get away from checking the price every half hour it'd certainly still be reasonable to continue doing so for the time being.

This is explicitly a price speculation.

It plays on past events. I see many similar charts that predict 2017 will repeat again. Some even predict it next year instead in 2021. But yes, Monero was best top100 performer in 2016, since before that had high emission. So even if cycle will repeat we should not expect it to be as strong as 2016 and 2017 were.   But the chart is legit. Nothing different then million charts on this forum.

this explanation could be correct:

https://www.coindesk.com/trump-administration-popped-2017-bitcoin-bubble-ex-cftc-chair-says

when you know how it works for gold and silver markets.

^  Lol.  Didn't think there was a way to make XMR's chart look any better.  I was wrong.  The power of denial is strong with this one. 

I would agree with that