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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1837. (Read 3314350 times)

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
July 15, 2015, 11:06:17 AM

It's risto's website:

Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?

(I don't believe we even have 25000 owners right now. That much could be the total number of people exposed to XMR but many of them are at zero balance.)

Price will rise as money enters in. We have the moneroinvestment.com site, which will soon be polished for launch and will target midclass people who are interested in buying 10-100k XMR with fiat. Even a few of these guys can raise the price significantly.

CK has potential to absolutely explode XMR. At present, about 1% of XMR is already in CK account, so if we get "even" 100,000 new players, the price will have to go up by 10x to accommodate the equivalent new buying. Of course not every game makes it big, so this is more speculative than the 'new investors' case, which is clear as sky, only variable is timing.

I don't think the wallets or merchants matter that much, but I am pretty alone with this opinion, so perhaps they do Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
July 15, 2015, 10:01:37 AM
Figured some monero-aholics would be interested in this:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11881938

"Smoothie's Hawaiian Property

Tentative payment methods: BITCOIN, LITECOIN, MONERO, GOLD, SILVER"

Good choices!  Welcome to Monero Mountain!



Enjoy your assimilation into our wild & free collective!   Cool
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
hero member
Activity: 744
Merit: 500
July 15, 2015, 08:29:46 AM
I wont comment on the probably of failure because I do not feel qualified to quantify it.

I will say that the longer the community continues to grow and development progress continues to be made the greater the chance of success.

Look up all the coins that were launched with a bitcointalk announcement last year around the same time as Monero.  Monero is doing better that 99% of them. Many thousands of coins have been launched over the last year. How many of those has a community as strong as ours?

Of those with a strong community how many are had a premine, instamine or fastmine? How many allow for private transactions at the protocol level without and form of centralized mixing?

Most coins now seem to be designed with a very short PoW period followed by a conversion to PoS to make the developers BTC quickly. Unfortunately this model does not have the proper incentives for lasting development or growing a community.

Monero is built to last. Lots of progress has been made but XMR prices are still lower than they were last summer. This is a wonderful thing for potential community members looking at Monero. New community members can buy Monero at prices lower than many early adopters did a year ago! However this period is unlikely to last much longer as emission is slowing and demand will soon far outweigh supply from the miners.

I think it is possible that the next month or two (before translations and worldwide marketing plans are ramped up and while less than 50% of XMR has been mined) may be the last opportunity to buy Monero at anywhere near these price levels.

Of course this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. I look at many coins quite carefully. There are none that I am nearly excited about as Monero.

I tend to agree with you.
The emission looks now great and the chart and supply of coins in exchanges is pretty scarce which makes the coin potentially very explosive even if we get a moderate amount of new money into Monero.

However, if Monero takes off, it is cheap buy even for 0.50 BTC.

Cheap at .5 BTC? So you expect XMR to reach BTC parity?


Even more.
I am waiting here once Risto makes calculations on how many XMR can each person own in the world in our generation even if the coin is shared equally (very unlike scenario - usually there are a few big guys, the elite, and the rest are small peasants).

I hope Risto will make a realistic calculation and will not forget that except of XMR there are several good coins on the market that world population will use.
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
July 15, 2015, 06:07:42 AM


Interesting. Who owns this site?

I believe it is RP Wink
full member
Activity: 308
Merit: 109
July 15, 2015, 06:05:11 AM
Hey looks like moneroinvest.com is updated.  Smiley

Yet it seems to be dealig with monero only by its name. What about in near future? Will it soon have some functionality with monero?

http://moneroinvestment.com/


Thanks. That site was new for me.

But what about moneroinvest.com site. Will it be for example possible to buy metals by Monero in near future from there?
sr. member
Activity: 283
Merit: 250
July 15, 2015, 05:57:58 AM
Hey looks like moneroinvest.com is updated.  Smiley

Yet it seems to be dealig with monero only by its name. What about in near future? Will it soon have some functionality with monero?

http://moneroinvestment.com/

Interesting. Who owns this site?

Found one mistake:

"At the time of this writing in May 2015 Monero is at the very begging of its story."

Also I would cut up the story into more paragraphs, it's a bit of a long read (as in all in one) and not very attractive to the eye.

edit:
and another one, 'The central argument regarding Monere value add as an investment is that the value proposal presented above is plausible, '
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
July 15, 2015, 05:53:34 AM
Hey looks like moneroinvest.com is updated.  Smiley

Yet it seems to be dealig with monero only by its name. What about in near future? Will it soon have some functionality with monero?

http://moneroinvestment.com/
full member
Activity: 308
Merit: 109
July 15, 2015, 05:43:15 AM
Hey looks like moneroinvest.com is updated.  Smiley

Yet it seems to be dealig with monero only by its name. What about in near future? Will it soon have some functionality with monero?
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
July 15, 2015, 04:34:40 AM
The thing is Monero is owned by people who do not really care to sell unless they want to play a little pinball game like me.  Grin

Personally I am not interested in selling any coins in 1 digit and even two digits I will think carefully if I start implementing SSS. When Monero is traded in hundreds, I might make a SSS plan from there. Knowing my standard of living and willingness for fancy life, I think I will not need that many coins to sell. I could easily live happily in a farm in nowhere growing my own food.

But dude, why the fuck do you need all the wealth of the world when you only have a farm and grow your own food? Smiley
You're planning to hire people to grow your food and clean your farm?

Investing and supporting local economy is important.
Keeping money in circulation helps the unemployed to get jobs and create to them some wealth also.

I plan to invest money into companies (startups) - and I wish I could do it directly with Moneros - not to convert it to fiat first.
Also buying a whole block of flats is one of my bigger dreams (which I probably will do even if Monero fails).

Help your tenants seek jobs that will pay in Monero and then they can pay you rent in XMR
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
July 15, 2015, 04:32:44 AM
The thing is Monero is owned by people who do not really care to sell unless they want to play a little pinball game like me.  Grin

Personally I am not interested in selling any coins in 1 digit and even two digits I will think carefully if I start implementing SSS. When Monero is traded in hundreds, I might make a SSS plan from there. Knowing my standard of living and willingness for fancy life, I think I will not need that many coins to sell. I could easily live happily in a farm in nowhere growing my own food.

But dude, why the fuck do you need all the wealth of the world when you only have a farm and grow your own food? Smiley
You're planning to hire people to grow your food and clean your farm?

Investing and supporting local economy is important.
Keeping money in circulation helps the unemployed to get jobs and create to them some wealth also.

I plan to invest money into companies (startups) - and I wish I could do it directly with Moneros - not to convert it to fiat first.
Also buying a whole block of flats is one of my bigger dreams (which I probably will do even if Monero fails).
hero member
Activity: 794
Merit: 1000
Monero (XMR) - secure, private, untraceable
July 15, 2015, 04:22:31 AM
Good news! The excellent optimization work by Noodle Doodle (in some cases faster than the original in-memory version!) has been completed and a pull request was submitted moments ago: https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/337

Additional testing will be needed and there are still a few loose ends but this is a major step toward the database being pushed out as a tagged build.

Great. That's the one I was waiting for to start my full nodes again. My blockchain is about a month old and the sync was much slower compared to the in-memory version.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
July 15, 2015, 04:13:41 AM
I just bought a couple hundred Moneros.
My stack is growing as I consider the current price a bargain.

I still find it amazing how low the prices are now compared to the peak last year despite all the progress since that time. 500 XMR for 1BTC seems almost too good to be true.

I wonder if most early BTC adopters are still in denial about the importance of fungibility. XMR seems like the best possible hedge for their BTC holdings. If only a small number of BTC early adopters put a few % of their wealth into Monero prices will climb extremely fast.

So far rpietila seems the most vocal of this group. I know a few BTC core developers have made some positive comments about Monero and cryptonote. What will it take for the cascade of interest from this group to begin?
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1008
Delusional crypto obsessionist
July 15, 2015, 04:12:51 AM
The thing is Monero is owned by people who do not really care to sell unless they want to play a little pinball game like me.  Grin

Personally I am not interested in selling any coins in 1 digit and even two digits I will think carefully if I start implementing SSS. When Monero is traded in hundreds, I might make a SSS plan from there. Knowing my standard of living and willingness for fancy life, I think I will not need that many coins to sell. I could easily live happily in a farm in nowhere growing my own food.

But dude, why the fuck do you need all the wealth of the world when you only have a farm and grow your own food? Smiley
You're planning to hire people to grow your food and clean your farm?
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 502
July 15, 2015, 04:12:38 AM
What do you predict the XMR price will be once LMDB and the official GUI are released?

How close is LMDB to being tagged for official release? I have heard it has been very close for several months and doing well in testing

One key milestone is improving the meager performance of the first db implementation so the orphan rate doesn't shoot up and also so the node doesn't become impractical to use on low-end systems (which was part of the motivation for the database in the first place).

Good news! The excellent optimization work by Noodle Doodle (in some cases faster than the original in-memory version!) has been completed and a pull request was submitted moments ago: https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/337

Additional testing will be needed and there are still a few loose ends but this is a major step toward the database being pushed out as a tagged build.

Congratulations, and thanks to everyone involved, especially NoodleDoodle. Great to hear that Monero is moving forward!  Cool

Is there any news of the GUI? Haven't heard about this in months, but admittedly, I didn't follow this thread as close as I used to do...  Undecided
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
July 15, 2015, 04:00:00 AM
I just bought a couple hundred Moneros.
My stack is growing as I consider the current price a bargain.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
July 15, 2015, 03:54:08 AM
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
July 15, 2015, 03:45:54 AM
What do you predict the XMR price will be once LMDB and the official GUI are released?

How close is LMDB to being tagged for official release? I have heard it has been very close for several months and doing well in testing

One key milestone is improving the meager performance of the first db implementation so the orphan rate doesn't shoot up and also so the node doesn't become impractical to use on low-end systems (which was part of the motivation for the database in the first place).

Good news! The excellent optimization work by Noodle Doodle (in some cases faster than the original in-memory version!) has been completed and a pull request was submitted moments ago: https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/337

Additional testing will be needed and there are still a few loose ends but this is a major step toward the database being pushed out as a tagged build.

Quote
Bockchain:
1. Optim: Multi-thread long-hash computation when encountering groups of blocks.
2. Optim: Cache verified txs and return result from cache instead of re-checking whenever possible.
3. Optim: Preload output-keys when encoutering groups of blocks. Sort by amount and global-index before bulk querying database and multi-thread when possible.
4. Optim: Disable double spend check on block verification, double spend is already detected when trying to add blocks.
5. Optim: Multi-thread signature computation whenever possible.
6. Patch: Disable locking (recursive mutex) on called functions from check_tx_inputs which causes slowdowns (only seems to happen on ubuntu/VMs??? Reason: TBD)
7. Optim: Removed looped full-tx hash computation when retrieving transactions from pool (Huh).
8. Optim: Cache difficulty/timestamps (735 blocks) for next-difficulty calculations so that only 2 db reads per new block is needed when a new block arrives (instead of 1470 reads).

Berkeley-DB:
1. Fix: 32-bit data errors causing wrong output global indices and failure to send blocks to peers (etc).
2. Fix: Unable to pop blocks on reorganize due to transaction errors.
3. Patch: Large number of transaction aborts when running multi-threaded bulk queries.
4. Patch: Insufficient locks error when running full sync.
5. Patch: Incorrect db stats when returning from an immediate exit from "pop block" operation.
6. Optim: Add bulk queries to get output global indices.
7. Optim: Modified output_keys table to store public_key+unlock_time+height for single transaction lookup (vs 3)
8. Optim: Used output_keys table retrieve public_keys instead of going through output_amounts->output_txs+output_indices->txs->output:public_key
9. Optim: Added thread-safe buffers used when multi-threading bulk queries.
10. Optim: Added support for nosync/write_nosync options for improved performance (*see --db-sync-mode option for details)
11. Mod: Added checkpoint thread and auto-remove-logs option.
12. *Now usable on 32-bit systems like RPI2.

LMDB:
1. Optim: Added custom comparison for 256-bit key tables (minor speed-up, TBD: get actual effect)
2. Optim: Modified output_keys table to store public_key+unlock_time+height for single transaction lookup (vs 3)
3. Optim: Used output_keys table retrieve public_keys instead of going through output_amounts->output_txs+output_indices->txs->output:public_key
4. Optim: Added support for sync/writemap options for improved performance (*see --db-sync-mode option for details)
5. Mod: Auto resize to +1GB instead of multiplier x1.5

ETC:
1. Minor optimizations for slow-hash for ARM (RPI2). Incomplete.
2. Fix: 32-bit saturation bug when computing next difficulty on large blocks.

[PENDING ISSUES]
1. Berkely db has a very slow "pop-block" operation. This is very noticeable on the RPI2 as it sometimes takes > 10 MINUTES to pop a block during reorganization.
   This does not happen very often however, most reorgs seem to take a few seconds but it possibly depends on the number of outputs present. TBD.
2. Berkeley db, possible bug "unable to allocate memory". TBD.

[NEW OPTIONS] (*Currently all enabled for testing purposes)
1. --fast-block-sync arg=[0:1] (default: 1)
   a. 0 = Compute long hash per block (may take a while depending on CPU)
   b. 1 = Skip long-hash and verify blocks based on embedded known good block hashes (faster, minimal CPU dependence)
2. --db-sync-mode arg=[[safe|fast|fastest]:[sync|async]:[nblocks_per_sync]] (default: fastest:async:1000)
   a. safe = fdatasync/fsync (or equivalent) per stored block. Very slow, but safest option to protect against power-out/crash conditions.
   b. fast/fastest = Enables asynchronous fdatasync/fsync (or equivalent). Useful for battery operated devices or STABLE systems with UPS and/or systems with battery backed write cache/solid state cache.
   Fast    - Write meta-data but defer data flush.
   Fastest - Defer meta-data and data flush.
   Sync    - Flush data after nblocks_per_sync and wait.
   Async   - Flush data after nblocks_per_sync but do not wait for the operation to finish.
3. --prep-blocks-threads arg=[n] (default: 4 or system max threads, whichever is lower)
        Max number of threads to use when computing long-hash in groups.
4. --show-time-stats arg=[0:1] (default: 1)
   Show benchmark related time stats.
5. --db-auto-remove-logs arg=[0:1] (default: 1)
   For berkeley-db only. Auto remove logs if enabled.

**Note: lmdb and berkeley-db have changes to the tables and are not compatible with official git head version.
   At the moment, you need a full resync to use this optimized version.

[PERFORMANCE COMPARISON]
**Some figures are approximations only.
Using a baseline machine of an i7-2600K+SSD+(with full pow computation):
1. The optimized lmdb/blockhain core can process blocks up to 585K for ~1.25 hours + download time, so it usually takes 2.5 hours to sync the full chain.
2. The current head with memory can process blocks up to 585K for ~4.2 hours + download time, so it usually takes 5.5 hours to sync the full chain.
3. The current head with lmdb can process blocks up to 585K for ~32 hours + download time and usually takes 36 hours to sync the full chain.

Averate procesing times (with full pow computation):
lmdb-optimized:
1. tx_ave = 2.5 ms / tx
2. block_ave = 5.87 ms / block
memory-official-repo:
1. tx_ave = 8.85 ms / tx
2. block_ave = 19.68 ms / block
lmdb-official-repo (0f4a036)
1. tx_ave = 47.8 ms / tx
2. block_ave = 64.2 ms / block

**Note: The following data denotes processing times only (does not include p2p download time)
lmdb-optimized processing times (with full pow computation):
1. Desktop,  Quad-core / 8-threads 2600k  (8Mb) - 1.25 hours processing time (--db-sync-mode=fastest:async:1000).
2. Laptop,   Dual-core / 4-threads U4200  (3Mb) - 4.90 hours processing time (--db-sync-mode=fastest:async:1000).
3. Embedded, Quad-core / 4-threads Z3735F (2x1Mb) - 12.0 hours processing time (--db-sync-mode=fastest:async:1000).

lmdb-optimized processing times (with per-block-checkpoint)
1. Desktop,  Quad-core / 8-threads 2600k  (8Mb) - 10 minutes processing time (--db-sync-mode=fastest:async:1000).

berkeley-db optimized processing times (with full pow computation)
1. Desktop, Quad-core / 8-threads 2600k  (8Mb) - 1.8 hours processing time (--db-sync-mode=fastest:async:1000).
2. RPI2. Improved from estimated 3 months(Huh) into 2.5 days (*Need 2AMP supply + Clock:1Ghz + [usb+ssd] to achieve this speed) (--db-sync-mode=fastest:async:1000).

berkeley-db optimized processing times (with per-block-checkpoint)
1. RPI2. 12-15 hours (*Need 2AMP supply + Clock:1Ghz + [usb+ssd] to achieve this speed) (--db-sync-mode=fastest:async:1000).
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