I wont comment on the probably of failure because I do not feel qualified to quantify it.
I will say that the longer the community continues to grow and development progress continues to be made the greater the chance of success.
Look up all the coins that were launched with a bitcointalk announcement last year around the same time as Monero. Monero is doing better that 99% of them. Many thousands of coins have been launched over the last year. How many of those has a community as strong as ours?
Of those with a strong community how many are had a premine, instamine or fastmine? How many allow for private transactions at the protocol level without and form of centralized mixing?
Most coins now seem to be designed with a very short PoW period followed by a conversion to PoS to make the developers BTC quickly. Unfortunately this model does not have the proper incentives for lasting development or growing a community.
Monero is built to last. Lots of progress has been made but XMR prices are still lower than they were last summer. This is a wonderful thing for potential community members looking at Monero. New community members can buy Monero at prices lower than many early adopters did a year ago! However this period is unlikely to last much longer as emission is slowing and demand will soon far outweigh supply from the miners.
I think it is possible that the next month or two (before translations and worldwide marketing plans are ramped up and while less than 50% of XMR has been mined) may be the last opportunity to buy Monero at anywhere near these price levels.
Of course this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. I look at many coins quite carefully. There are none that I am nearly excited about as Monero.
I will say that the longer the community continues to grow and development progress continues to be made the greater the chance of success.
Look up all the coins that were launched with a bitcointalk announcement last year around the same time as Monero. Monero is doing better that 99% of them. Many thousands of coins have been launched over the last year. How many of those has a community as strong as ours?
Of those with a strong community how many are had a premine, instamine or fastmine? How many allow for private transactions at the protocol level without and form of centralized mixing?
Most coins now seem to be designed with a very short PoW period followed by a conversion to PoS to make the developers BTC quickly. Unfortunately this model does not have the proper incentives for lasting development or growing a community.
Monero is built to last. Lots of progress has been made but XMR prices are still lower than they were last summer. This is a wonderful thing for potential community members looking at Monero. New community members can buy Monero at prices lower than many early adopters did a year ago! However this period is unlikely to last much longer as emission is slowing and demand will soon far outweigh supply from the miners.
I think it is possible that the next month or two (before translations and worldwide marketing plans are ramped up and while less than 50% of XMR has been mined) may be the last opportunity to buy Monero at anywhere near these price levels.
Of course this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong. I look at many coins quite carefully. There are none that I am nearly excited about as Monero.
I tend to agree with you.
The emission looks now great and the chart and supply of coins in exchanges is pretty scarce which makes the coin potentially very explosive even if we get a moderate amount of new money into Monero.
However, if Monero takes off, it is cheap buy even for 0.50 BTC.
Cheap at .5 BTC? So you expect XMR to reach BTC parity?
If XMR moves into the (at least) 20 trillion dollar "offshore private wealth storage" market before bitcoin does, then it can be as big or bigger than bitcoin.
I see no evidence that bitcoin has made any real advances into this area. Otherwise, it wouldn't have such a tiny market cap. The market is "up for grabs."
Bitcoin is the best candidate for this market if you are looking at hashing power and development activity. But XMR offers banking privacy which is something that you have (to some degree) in Switzerland and the Cayman Islands, yet bitcoin lacks it.
Thanks for the reply! I've used the Cayman Islands as a way of describing the relationship of XMR to BTC. I had no idea it was worth 20 trillion!
It's actually way more than that, the average person has no access to Cayman Islands, Monero is readly available, functional and at reach
And you aren't subject to political swings or untangling yourself from the fine print with Monero. Anyone who has seen Blow or Wolf of Wall Street should know that Panama and Sweden were safe havens until they weren't. The solutions are sometimes riskier than the problems.
Cayman Islands won't be a safehaven for long anymore -> http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33889
