If you think that is too much weighed to the downside, buy more, and by so doing, help it grow!
Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1841. (Read 3314350 times)
The detailed calc is there in the thread a few months ago. It is very pessimistic, and gives XMR only 39% chance to even be alive in 2.5 years. Significant gains happen only in 15% of the cases. Yet the EV was something like 29x.
If you think that is too much weighed to the downside, buy more, and by so doing, help it grow!
If you think that is too much weighed to the downside, buy more, and by so doing, help it grow!
I think the problem with Risto's scenario analysis with high expected value but low probability of success is that one needs to have plenty of such projects out of 1 will make it big.
Where to find the rest of the high outcome low probability games? National lottery perhaps?
Where to find the rest of the high outcome low probability games? National lottery perhaps?
It's more like VC investing--though that range is usually significantly less than 1/100, but is closer to 1/100 than a 1/1,000,000+ lotto ticket. And there doesn't need to be total success for you to earn your investment back as selling 10% at a 10x return gives you back your initial investment (minus taxes). The probability of Monero going to $2.5-5 is much higher than 1/100 and that would be the range for those who started investing in the last six months.
When you guys think XMR will be 2k USD per coin, why do you ignore 1 major risk:
In the nearest future some superior tech coin may surge on the market. When BTC was released, people thought it was anonymous. Now we all know it is not. Moreover BTC network is not immune and it was spammed.
In the nearest future some superior tech coin may surge on the market. When BTC was released, people thought it was anonymous. Now we all know it is not. Moreover BTC network is not immune and it was spammed.
(Hopefully) nobody is ignoring any risks.
Rather, we are talking about a price scenario universe with very lucrative, small probability outcomes.
The more detailed calculation is back there in the same thread, but an indicative one can be summarized as:
1/100 probability = 1000x gain
99/100 probability = total loss
Nothing is ignored, all the risks are there in the 99% part. Yet the 1% makes it all worthwhile and +EV.
The whale has spoken
Let´s see what happens next year. I personally like the efforts that are smashed in to XMR, i am a picoinvestor and active at funding developement but i am more interested in using Monero in every day culture.
I think Monero is THE next technologie and i am eager in this tech and infrastructure. I hope Monero can keep up the decentralisation and run towards usability in REAL anonymous transactions! -> I would prefer a mixin=3 per default, maybe that could be implemented by the core dev´s
The only "fear" i have is the adoption of the big "notsoleagalactivity" guys in the business, that could destroy Moneros reputation, although it would lift the gain like hell.....
But maybe you can do a scenario where this fact is taken into calculation Risto
I think the problem with Risto's scenario analysis with high expected value but low probability of success is that one needs to have plenty of such projects out of 1 will make it big.
Where to find the rest of the high outcome low probability games? National lottery perhaps?
Where to find the rest of the high outcome low probability games? National lottery perhaps?
That´s a point
EDIT: BTW, i hate the spamming of the BTC transactions, my 0,00001txfee transactions are unconfirmed for 20hours now, but maybe the not so anonymous BTC devs will apply factor 10 blockchainsize finally
I think the problem with Risto's scenario analysis with high expected value but low probability of success is that one needs to have plenty of such projects out of 1 will make it big.
Where to find the rest of the high outcome low probability games? National lottery perhaps?
Where to find the rest of the high outcome low probability games? National lottery perhaps?
Have not you tried to list XMR on litebit.eu? It`s a fiat (EUR/USD/GBP) to crypto exchange.
When you guys think XMR will be 2k USD per coin, why do you ignore 1 major risk:
In the nearest future some superior tech coin may surge on the market. When BTC was released, people thought it was anonymous. Now we all know it is not. Moreover BTC network is not immune and it was spammed.
In the nearest future some superior tech coin may surge on the market. When BTC was released, people thought it was anonymous. Now we all know it is not. Moreover BTC network is not immune and it was spammed.
(Hopefully) nobody is ignoring any risks.
Rather, we are talking about a price scenario universe with very lucrative, small probability outcomes.
The more detailed calculation is back there in the same thread, but an indicative one can be summarized as:
1/100 probability = 1000x gain
99/100 probability = total loss
Nothing is ignored, all the risks are there in the 99% part. Yet the 1% makes it all worthwhile and +EV.
If I tell my friends that I believe 1666x gains are possible, I will sound like a lunatic.
So did the guys who advertised BTC in 2010. Now they have their limos, yachts and castles.
When you guys think XMR will be 2k USD per coin, why do you ignore 1 major risk:
In the nearest future some superior tech coin may surge on the market. When BTC was released, people thought it was anonymous. Now we all know it is not. Moreover BTC network is not immune and it was spammed.
i dont think we have one, maybe one big Behemoth..
btw great list, should fit nicely for the next few months
lets see how much action we get the coming days, looks promising for now. xmr is so small compared..it feels undervalued for now, at least to me
btw great list, should fit nicely for the next few months
lets see how much action we get the coming days, looks promising for now. xmr is so small compared..it feels undervalued for now, at least to me
If XMR stays perfectly fungible, then we have a serious contender for a great store of value on our hands. People who risk big early may be massive winners in the long run.
Might I interfere to your musings, I'd propose a diversification of a portion from 1:3 to 1:5 or more of the BTC:XMR you have.
Do you mean dollar based or coin amount?
I assume he meant the ratio to be based on current (fiat) value.
I meant if you have 1 BTC you should keep from 3 to 5 XMR. I believe this is the most possible scenario for its price.
If I tell my friends that I believe 1666x gains are possible, I will sound like a lunatic.
So did the guys who advertised BTC in 2010. Now they have their limos, yachts and castles.
I prefer this thread as making money and helping others to make money also is more my way.
I'm truly interested in your definition of money.
For me money is starting to be anything else than fiat...
What do you mean by money? Wealth in general (just holding the cheapest coins possible to sell them high later)?
Or fiat?
I know, it's probably me, but I really get confused about people talking about making money on this website.
you can safely ignore TC without missing anything
he's like our retarded mascot. almost always been here but no one is taking him seriously.For what are you butthurt?
Perhaps once you might find I was wrong but I doubt you will find the second time I was wrong so I guess if you do not want to make money you should ignore me but if you are here to make money you should read my posts with the very same devotion like you read the Bible.
I prefer this thread as making money and helping others to make money also is more my way.
I'm truly interested in your definition of money.
For me money is starting to be anything else than fiat...
What do you mean by money? Wealth in general (just holding the cheapest coins possible to sell them high later)?
Or fiat?
I know, it's probably me, but I really get confused about people talking about making money on this website.
My definition of money/wealth:
increase of purchasing power.
I've sold Moneros around 0.003 and now buying back - yes still I am buying despite I've done the major buying already but I still want to support the marketcap by buying coins from the weak hands.
If Monero goes to bubble, I will sell and make bitcoins/moneros (I need to sell less Moneros to get the same amount of fiat/btc).
I make money both in crypto and real world. In real world I make money mainly from renting appartments and in crypto I make money by buying low and selling high (speculation).
I think of it like this:
At its peak, for a short while, XMR withstood over $100,000 worth of daily emission. (23000+ XMR emitted per day * 580+ XBT:USD * .008+ XMR:XBT).
Today's daily emission in USD: ~$8,300
So a bubble in July 2015 could take us to $7+ assuming zero growth of the XMR economy.
How about XMR in 2021? Due to better exchanges, more use, and more visibility, let's assume that XMR can withstand $1,000,000 in daily emission for a short while (as litecoin currently can in 2015 with nearly zero use). With 836 coins emitted per day, that's $1000+ per coin.
I believe $1000 per XMR is not only possible but realistic.
At its peak, for a short while, XMR withstood over $100,000 worth of daily emission. (23000+ XMR emitted per day * 580+ XBT:USD * .008+ XMR:XBT).
Today's daily emission in USD: ~$8,300
So a bubble in July 2015 could take us to $7+ assuming zero growth of the XMR economy.
How about XMR in 2021? Due to better exchanges, more use, and more visibility, let's assume that XMR can withstand $1,000,000 in daily emission for a short while (as litecoin currently can in 2015 with nearly zero use). With 836 coins emitted per day, that's $1000+ per coin.
I believe $1000 per XMR is not only possible but realistic.
Lets be generous and share our knowledge of Monero with others now while prices are still cheap. I am telling everyone I know about it. They will thank me later if everything goes according to plan
If I tell my friends that I believe 1666x gains are possible, I will sound like a lunatic.
If you tell them Monero is a new digital cash and if it gets even wider adoption, it will skyrocket.
Then you could show them the story of Bill Gates. He basically was more or less broke in the beginning and now his wealth approaches 100 billion. If he had kept Microsoft in his hands, he could have been richer even as Microsoft has experienced pretty fast adoption among the companies around the world.
You could compare Monero to Microsoft and pick up the marketcap of Microsoft and calculate with the parameters what will happen to Monero's price if it gets partial adoption (like Microsoft has partial adoption among the operating systems).
I prefer this thread as making money and helping others to make money also is more my way.
I'm truly interested in your definition of money.
For me money is starting to be anything else than fiat...
What do you mean by money? Wealth in general (just holding the cheapest coins possible to sell them high later)?
Or fiat?
I know, it's probably me, but I really get confused about people talking about making money on this website.
you can safely ignore TC without missing anything
he's like our retarded mascot. almost always been here but no one is taking him seriously. I think of it like this:
At its peak, for a short while, XMR withstood over $100,000 worth of daily emission. (23000+ XMR emitted per day * 580+ XBT:USD * .008+ XMR:XBT).
Today's daily emission in USD: ~$8,300
So a bubble in July 2015 could take us to $7+ assuming zero growth of the XMR economy.
How about XMR in 2021? Due to better exchanges, more use, and more visibility, let's assume that XMR can withstand $1,000,000 in daily emission for a short while (as litecoin currently can in 2015 with nearly zero use). With 836 coins emitted per day, that's $1000+ per coin.
I believe $1000 per XMR is not only possible but realistic.
At its peak, for a short while, XMR withstood over $100,000 worth of daily emission. (23000+ XMR emitted per day * 580+ XBT:USD * .008+ XMR:XBT).
Today's daily emission in USD: ~$8,300
So a bubble in July 2015 could take us to $7+ assuming zero growth of the XMR economy.
How about XMR in 2021? Due to better exchanges, more use, and more visibility, let's assume that XMR can withstand $1,000,000 in daily emission for a short while (as litecoin currently can in 2015 with nearly zero use). With 836 coins emitted per day, that's $1000+ per coin.
I believe $1000 per XMR is not only possible but realistic.
Lets be generous and share our knowledge of Monero with others now while prices are still cheap. I am telling everyone I know about it. They will thank me later if everything goes according to plan
If I tell my friends that I believe 1666x gains are possible, I will sound like a lunatic.
Tell them something "more reasonable" like 200% and they will be pleasantly surprised.
200% wouldn't be worth the risk.
I think 99.99% of the worlds population would be pretty happy with 200%. If they put in $100, okay that's kinda pointless. But if they are putting in 2.5k, 5k or more, 200% is a nice chunk of change and it's pretty much guaranteed. I don't expect anyone here would say xmr won't do at least 200% at some point in the near future. That's a measly pump. Think of what hours your average person has to do to make $10k. It's funny how the expectations differ within the crypto community from the outside world.
You may be underestimating the chances of failure.
I think of it like this:
At its peak, for a short while, XMR withstood over $100,000 worth of daily emission. (23000+ XMR emitted per day * 580+ XBT:USD * .008+ XMR:XBT).
Today's daily emission in USD: ~$8,300
So a bubble in July 2015 could take us to $7+ assuming zero growth of the XMR economy.
How about XMR in 2021? Due to better exchanges, more use, and more visibility, let's assume that XMR can withstand $1,000,000 in daily emission for a short while (as litecoin currently can in 2015 with nearly zero use). With 836 coins emitted per day, that's $1000+ per coin.
I believe $1000 per XMR is not only possible but realistic.
At its peak, for a short while, XMR withstood over $100,000 worth of daily emission. (23000+ XMR emitted per day * 580+ XBT:USD * .008+ XMR:XBT).
Today's daily emission in USD: ~$8,300
So a bubble in July 2015 could take us to $7+ assuming zero growth of the XMR economy.
How about XMR in 2021? Due to better exchanges, more use, and more visibility, let's assume that XMR can withstand $1,000,000 in daily emission for a short while (as litecoin currently can in 2015 with nearly zero use). With 836 coins emitted per day, that's $1000+ per coin.
I believe $1000 per XMR is not only possible but realistic.
Lets be generous and share our knowledge of Monero with others now while prices are still cheap. I am telling everyone I know about it. They will thank me later if everything goes according to plan
If I tell my friends that I believe 1666x gains are possible, I will sound like a lunatic.
Tell them something "more reasonable" like 200% and they will be pleasantly surprised.
200% wouldn't be worth the risk.
Depends entirely on what probability you assign success.
I think of it like this:
At its peak, for a short while, XMR withstood over $100,000 worth of daily emission. (23000+ XMR emitted per day * 580+ XBT:USD * .008+ XMR:XBT).
Today's daily emission in USD: ~$8,300
So a bubble in July 2015 could take us to $7+ assuming zero growth of the XMR economy.
How about XMR in 2021? Due to better exchanges, more use, and more visibility, let's assume that XMR can withstand $1,000,000 in daily emission for a short while (as litecoin currently can in 2015 with nearly zero use). With 836 coins emitted per day, that's $1000+ per coin.
I believe $1000 per XMR is not only possible but realistic.
At its peak, for a short while, XMR withstood over $100,000 worth of daily emission. (23000+ XMR emitted per day * 580+ XBT:USD * .008+ XMR:XBT).
Today's daily emission in USD: ~$8,300
So a bubble in July 2015 could take us to $7+ assuming zero growth of the XMR economy.
How about XMR in 2021? Due to better exchanges, more use, and more visibility, let's assume that XMR can withstand $1,000,000 in daily emission for a short while (as litecoin currently can in 2015 with nearly zero use). With 836 coins emitted per day, that's $1000+ per coin.
I believe $1000 per XMR is not only possible but realistic.
Lets be generous and share our knowledge of Monero with others now while prices are still cheap. I am telling everyone I know about it. They will thank me later if everything goes according to plan
If I tell my friends that I believe 1666x gains are possible, I will sound like a lunatic.
Tell them something "more reasonable" like 200% and they will be pleasantly surprised.
200% wouldn't be worth the risk.
Im telling many people... but no one wants to listen to "magic internet money"
Maybe post an email address or link to contact form in order to make it easier for people to ask them.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/btc38-262888
btc38 bitcointalk rep
tickets:
http://www.btc38.com/trade/cs_qaa_en.html
https://support.btc-e.com/
twitter:
https://twitter.com/btc38com
https://twitter.com/btcecom
I hope everyone who supports XMR will contact all the major exchanges and ask them to add us.
The more exchanges we have the more liquidity and exposure we get
Cryptsy keeps saying they will add XMR as well but they have taken a year already since it was high on voting list.....
Please keep asking exchanges to add us. Remind them of our potential trading volume and unique features
Reminder that XMR is already on BTER:
https://bter.com/trade/xmr_btc
Maybe more volume there would help attract BTC38 to Monero
Anyone have close contact with Cryptsy? I have seen reports forever that XMR would be added but it never happens
Might as well contact bitfinex too. They added DASH so maybe they will consider us if enough people ask
[email protected]
More exchanges makes it easier to attract new users. BTC38 in particular will be helpful in China. Please contact them frequently to remind them about our desire to trade XMR on their exchange.
Long term I would love to see XMR on the major Chinese exchanges like OK Coin (just BTC and LTC now) but we need to take things one step at a time.
@cryptsy Horus and some other staff member of Cryptsy confirmed that XMR should be added... but first they do a revamp as far as i understood ( guess they have to change their infrastructure to be able to add it ) no ETA afaik.
@finex They did not add it because everyone asked but Otoh of Dash community has some RL connections to someone in the leading position there
@bter why should people move their after their hacks or whatever it was when polo runs smoothly besides the KYC... you dont see much volume on bittrex either
thanks for bitfinex details I was not aware of
your advice makes sense about bter if there indeed have been recent hacks (I don't use the site so I was not aware)
poloniex is great. I just think that having more exchanges in multiple countries is better for a variety of reasons
no exchange is perfect. btc38 for example could benefit from more login and registration options. I still really hope they add XMR soon. It will be a mutually beneficial partnership
email: [email protected]
reddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/btc38
Maybe post an email address or link to contact form in order to make it easier for people to ask them.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/btc38-262888
btc38 bitcointalk rep
tickets:
http://www.btc38.com/trade/cs_qaa_en.html
https://support.btc-e.com/
twitter:
https://twitter.com/btc38com
https://twitter.com/btcecom
I hope everyone who supports XMR will contact all the major exchanges and ask them to add us.
The more exchanges we have the more liquidity and exposure we get
Cryptsy keeps saying they will add XMR as well but they have taken a year already since it was high on voting list.....
Please keep asking exchanges to add us. Remind them of our potential trading volume and unique features
Reminder that XMR is already on BTER:
https://bter.com/trade/xmr_btc
Maybe more volume there would help attract BTC38 to Monero
Anyone have close contact with Cryptsy? I have seen reports forever that XMR would be added but it never happens
Might as well contact bitfinex too. They added DASH so maybe they will consider us if enough people ask
[email protected]
More exchanges makes it easier to attract new users. BTC38 in particular will be helpful in China. Please contact them frequently to remind them about our desire to trade XMR on their exchange.
Long term I would love to see XMR on the major Chinese exchanges like OK Coin (just BTC and LTC now) but we need to take things one step at a time.
@cryptsy Horus and some other staff member of Cryptsy confirmed that XMR should be added... but first they do a revamp as far as i understood ( guess they have to change their infrastructure to be able to add it ) no ETA afaik.
@finex They did not add it because everyone asked but Otoh of Dash community has some RL connections to someone in the leading position there
@bter why should people move their after their hacks or whatever it was when polo runs smoothly besides the KYC... you dont see much volume on bittrex either
I think of it like this:
At its peak, for a short while, XMR withstood over $100,000 worth of daily emission. (23000+ XMR emitted per day * 580+ XBT:USD * .008+ XMR:XBT).
Today's daily emission in USD: ~$8,300
So a bubble in July 2015 could take us to $7+ assuming zero growth of the XMR economy.
How about XMR in 2021? Due to better exchanges, more use, and more visibility, let's assume that XMR can withstand $1,000,000 in daily emission for a short while (as litecoin currently can in 2015 with nearly zero use). With 836 coins emitted per day, that's $1000+ per coin.
I believe $1000 per XMR is not only possible but realistic.
At its peak, for a short while, XMR withstood over $100,000 worth of daily emission. (23000+ XMR emitted per day * 580+ XBT:USD * .008+ XMR:XBT).
Today's daily emission in USD: ~$8,300
So a bubble in July 2015 could take us to $7+ assuming zero growth of the XMR economy.
How about XMR in 2021? Due to better exchanges, more use, and more visibility, let's assume that XMR can withstand $1,000,000 in daily emission for a short while (as litecoin currently can in 2015 with nearly zero use). With 836 coins emitted per day, that's $1000+ per coin.
I believe $1000 per XMR is not only possible but realistic.
Lets be generous and share our knowledge of Monero with others now while prices are still cheap. I am telling everyone I know about it. They will thank me later if everything goes according to plan
If I tell my friends that I believe 1666x gains are possible, I will sound like a lunatic.
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