Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1840. (Read 3314350 times)

100 people taking the advice is 300k. 1000 people taking the advice is 3m. There won't be enough for 10k people to take the advice. Even right now, there's only enough for less than 3k people to take the advice. In 3 years, there's still only enough for 6k people to take the advice, excluding current major holders. Likely, there will only be 3-4k people that ever need to take the advice.

So where can we find another 3-4k people in 3 years? Given the small amount needed and the number of us there already are, a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'.

Say there's 200 of us now. If we each find 15-20 people that think they want to take the advice and do it over the next three years, well be way okay.

Shouldn't be too bad. Go make a single new middle class friend every two months from now until three years from now. Get them to take the advice.

Seems like hardly any work at all, given the yield.

Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

I won't sell ... magic beans to new friends. 

Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.

That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.

I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.

I only know rpietila from bitcoin talk but he seems like an intelligent and benevolent person from what I can see.  
  
A good thing since if he keeps the faith he will likely end up as one of the richest men in history.  
  
I wish I had more resources to purchase more Monero than I do, but even one Monero will make one fairly wealthy if this project goes as it I believe it will.  
  
Does anyone know if there is a ratio or theoretical number where owning more of an asset by one individual actually decreases it's possible value?  For example, we can all agree that owning 1% will make you obscenely wealthy if Monero goes the distance.  That relies on the other 99% becoming widely distributed and a major standard for transacting goods and services across the world.  
  
But, let's say there are 100 of us and we all buy 1%.  Well, we have n-person-prisoner-dilemma-fucked ourselves because now no one can reasonably transact with the asset (and it will likely be discredited long before this becomes a fact).  
  
It would seem that buried within the mountains of magic numbers there is a game theory solution for the maximal amount of an asset a rational player should ever seek to own, even if they suspect (hope) the value/utility will one day explode to orders of magnitude above its current state.

It is so easy that I am crying to make it accessible for you  


- Buy XMR now at $0.35. Most people can set aside $1,000 so that'll be 3,000 XMR, a rather easy buy even in the illiquid exchange.

- Write it off. Don't care about what you could have bought with it. Work overtime to recoup the money if you must, or skip a trip, to make it emotionally OK that you have given the money away.

- Do some productive stuff, don't follow XMR unless you care about the nascent payment network and services in alpha stage.

- Wait, until it hits $2 (not that hard, we were doing it for months last summer; the ath = $5), if the day arrives, sell 500 XMR and get back 100% of your original investment. If anything, now you should be totally ok to just wait where it goes.

- Continue your life.

- Sell 500 XMR every time it goes up 10x from the previous sale. This way the schedule is:

500 XMR @ $2
500 XMR @ $20
500 XMR @ $200
500 XMR @ $2,000 (gain $1 million)
500 XMR @ $20,000 (gain $10 Mm)
500 XMR @ $200,000 except since at this point you are set for life plus have XMR that is worth 100 million in purchasing power, it's hardly necessary to sell it unless you need something.

$200,000 * 18 million coins = $3,600 billion, still <1% of the current total in USD-denominated assets, so as such, not even a win for crypto but a good start


ADD: Oh forgot to mention: never, EVER:

- sell at a loss
- deviate from the plan in any other way.

I speculate that this flagship use of the forum funding system will set the stage for future success of the funding system, and hence, future success of Monero. If developers outside of the Monero community witness a fully functioning funding system, they will be more likely to build a reputation in the Monero community in order to get in on the action. I.e., they will contribute to core development to build a reputation, and then pitch a proposal for eventual funding. Or they might have impressive github activity which will serve as credentials.

Either which way, Monero wins.

So c'mon Monero whales - the remainder of the fund for MoneroMoo to dedicate 260 hours to Monero development is only 3930 XMR, and you can bet MoneroMoo will hodl that coin.

To all the free electricity mining outfits out there, please consider donating to Monero development. This coin is one of the few CPU coins that has a chance for the long haul - if you don't help fund development, your cash cow may shrivel up and die.

3930, thats only ~6.9 hours of emissions!!!

https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/334/fund-a-developer-moneromoo-will-work-part-time-on-monero-for-260-hours-over-approx-6-months

There already are plenty of projects, the rest of the Alt market. The fact that Risto is supporting XMR means that he is making his bet on Monero after examining the other alternatives.

I think the problem with Risto's scenario analysis with high expected value but low probability of success is that one needs to have plenty of such projects out of 1 will make it big.
Where to find the rest of the high outcome low probability games? National lottery perhaps?

I meant if you have 1 BTC you should keep from 3 to 5 XMR. I believe this is the most possible scenario for its price.

OK, but the price of monero needs to be at least 3 TIMES BIGGER than it is now first 

The American Pegasus Center For Kids Who Don't Math Good And Want To Do Other Stuff Good Too will be a reality.

It's the difference between short and long term thinking.

To open up, I will share my latest price/scenario analysis for Monero. I did it for the following 32 months (the remainder of this year, and the 2 following years). As it was price scenario, the only variable actually mapped was price, the reasons why the price might go up, down or stay the same, were all approximated as part of the probabilities.

The scenarios had 6 possible prices: 1000, 100, 10, 1, 0.1 and 0 USD, and 0 was considered a terminal failure after which no recovery could happen. Each timepoint (end of year 2015, 2016, 2017) and price were assigned with a conditional probability based on the price in the previous timepoint.

It was always possible to go to 0, the probability that it would happen in a given period ranged from 5-24%. Also every lower price point was always possible. The increase in price was only deemed possible to be 10-200x per period though, excluding black swans. (Much larger price increases are not even uncommon in crypto - BTC had 6400x in less than a year in 2010-2011, and some premined coins have had even larger).

The complete table of conditional probabilities used (expressed in full %) is as follows:

When calculated, it yielded the following price scenario probability table for the end of 2017:


It looks like that an investment in Monero will return a loss of 80% or more in 61% probability, which is not promising. Also the probability of a rise to 1000 USD or more (reaching the historical peak in BTC marketcap, in about 2/3 of the timeframe that BTC reached it from launch) is at less than 1%, a reality check confirming the conservative assumptions.

Yet the EV of XMR in the end of the period (the sum of the partial EV in the above table) is 19.29 USD, a 38x gain in 32 months, with an annual expected return of 293%. When we evaluate this result, it is notable that 3/4s of the EV is produced from scenarios where XMR achieves the current size of BTC, or more. It is these scenarios that must exist to make the coin a stellar investment.

Now I don't want to bash Dash, but I haven't seen evidence that it could realistically (<1% (above) is still realistic, 0% is not) achieve such a prominent long-term position.

To create a fat tail probability distribution, there must be few flaws in the system. Dash has too many:
- single developer
- premine
- lying about the premine
- masternodes
- deficient anonymity.

It is like physically reaching the moon. The spacecraft does not need to be high-end, but if there are 5 large holes in its different systems, it soon tilts the odds of actually reaching the moon to become slim.

Monero, on the other hand, seems quite antifragile. The only problem that is as severe as the ones listed above for Dash, is
- botnet mining.

The developers have correctly understood that the potential and payoff for Monero is not in the order of 10-100x the current price, but 1000x or more. The priorities of development are set accordingly.

If Monero and Dash are mooncraft, Monero's design philosophy is to maximize the probability of hitting moon, and the resulting payoff, while Dash concentrates on getting as many people on board as possible.