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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1839. (Read 3314350 times)

legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
July 14, 2015, 09:40:58 AM

I'm interested in monero but seeing you talk about "a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'" sets some red flags.
You really should try to make it sound less like a pyramid sheme because your whole post is drenched in a pyramid flavour.

Every coin (as well as penny stock etc) produces some with this sort of attitude.  Let the evangelists be evangelists.  Examine the platform for what it is and does.  Assign appropriate weight to the value of the community, and consider voices like that one to represent part, not all, of the community.  And then make a decision to become involved, code, invest, speculate, etc.

That is a more balanced way to look at this rather than making decisions based on single outliers.

I'd say this is true for most decisions.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
July 14, 2015, 09:35:39 AM
@rpietila

what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?

Thank´s for your answer

"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.

That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.

I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.

Are you sure the possibility of Monero`s death is as high as 50%?  In which case Monero can die?

In my humble opinion: unfortunately monero's chance of "death" is much higher than 50% with "death" defined as abandoned, superseded, broken, or otherwise rendered virtually valueless.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
July 14, 2015, 09:31:23 AM
The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.

Quote from: wikipedia
A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme, rather than supplying any real investment or sale of products or services to the public.

Thank you for your post.
In my opinion there are two types of pyramid schemes.
1) Legitimate pyramid schemes
2) Illegitimate pyramid schemes.

The difference is basically the fact that the legit one has a real product/service etc like Monero has. Monero is similar type of pyramid scheme as any real investment has.

The illegitimate one on the contrary is only a game, like ponzi where the lowest part brings the cash, the second level from the bottom gets a slice of the cash and forwards it to higher levels who on their behalf take their share until the top who gets the share of all the incomes.
legendary
Activity: 1105
Merit: 1000
July 14, 2015, 08:56:56 AM
The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.

Quote from: wikipedia
A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme, rather than supplying any real investment or sale of products or services to the public.
hero member
Activity: 768
Merit: 505
July 14, 2015, 08:09:52 AM
What would you sell a new friend then?

Nothing, that's an easy way to make a New Friend into a New enemy. I do tell old friends about opportunities though.

This! Selling is the wrong word though... IMO you can tell them what your doing with some fascination... but thats it... if they are really interested they will research themself or bugger you...

It´s a difference if you try to sell sth or if there is genuine interest.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
July 14, 2015, 07:53:49 AM
What would you sell a new friend then?

Nothing, that's an easy way to make a New Friend into a New enemy. I do tell old friends about opportunities though.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
July 14, 2015, 07:45:46 AM
Quote
Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

Just so much wrong with this.

I will make many more positive human interactions (I reserve the term "friends" for people I stay in close contact with for years).

I won't sell Monero, penny stocks, herbal oils or magic beans to new friends.  

So you didn't tell your friends about Bitcoin before it was a thing?

Oh wait..."Date Registered:  April 16, 2013."

Sorry your friends didn't tell you about Bitcoin before it was a thing.

Or maybe they tried, only for you to ignore their "magic bean" talk?

The guys I told about Bitcoin in 2011 have been very interested to hear about Monero.

They know I can smell disruption from a mile away.   Smiley

My register date on this forum in July 2013, but my Mtgox and Dwolla register dates are in May, 2011. Which one is more important? Talking or doing?  Cheesy

Anyway, I was only smart/rich enough to buy a double digit amount. I've corrected that mistake with Monero.

Btw, it turns out that one of my electrical engineer friends heard about bitcoin in 2009-2010 when we were in school together. He never told me :/ He ended up first buying bitcoin in the triple digits.
donator
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1060
GetMonero.org / MyMonero.com
July 14, 2015, 07:03:24 AM
I speculate that Eddie and I should stop using wide screens when checking forum changes...
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
July 14, 2015, 07:01:46 AM
I speculate that good formatting could be a smart move in making the system more user-friendly.  Grin

Actualy it looks fine on my browser, have you set any zoom on your browser ?

No zoom. Standard 100%. I'm getting the same results on an iPad too.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
July 14, 2015, 06:59:21 AM
I speculate that this flagship use of the forum funding system will set the stage for future success of the funding system, and hence, future success of Monero. If developers outside of the Monero community witness a fully functioning funding system, they will be more likely to build a reputation in the Monero community in order to get in on the action.

I think we might need a little assistance in the formatting department. This is how it looks to me:-



I speculate that good formatting could be a smart move in making the system more user-friendly.  Grin

Same for me, although I get a little formatting error on my phone as well.
member
Activity: 95
Merit: 10
July 14, 2015, 06:57:14 AM
I speculate that good formatting could be a smart move in making the system more user-friendly.  Grin

Actualy it looks fine on my browser, have you set any zoom on your browser ?
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
July 14, 2015, 06:48:10 AM
I speculate that this flagship use of the forum funding system will set the stage for future success of the funding system, and hence, future success of Monero. If developers outside of the Monero community witness a fully functioning funding system, they will be more likely to build a reputation in the Monero community in order to get in on the action.

I think we might need a little assistance in the formatting department. This is how it looks to me:-



I speculate that good formatting could be a smart move in making the system more user-friendly.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
July 14, 2015, 06:45:03 AM
For those who are interested, some Monero TA at twitter:

https://twitter.com/Pipfoundry/status/620903992139362304

Please trade with caution and do your own due diligence/TA as well!
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
July 14, 2015, 06:08:32 AM
Quote
Surely your chances of making a single new friend every two months for the next three years is greater than 1%, right?

Just so much wrong with this.

I will make many more positive human interactions (I reserve the term "friends" for people I stay in close contact with for years).

I won't sell Monero, penny stocks, herbal oils or magic beans to new friends. 

So you didn't tell your friends about Bitcoin before it was a thing?

Oh wait..."Date Registered:  April 16, 2013."

Sorry your friends didn't tell you about Bitcoin before it was a thing.

Or maybe they tried, only for you to ignore their "magic bean" talk?

The guys I told about Bitcoin in 2011 have been very interested to hear about Monero.

They know I can smell disruption from a mile away.   Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
July 14, 2015, 05:43:17 AM
The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.

You are right, but his post reads like a "I don't give a shit about monero but only want to get people join this pyramid so I can cash out and ride a pink elephant."
Don't understand me wrong, I also want to ride a pink elephant but I want to ride it sooner than him.
He doesn't really invite me to join his pyramid by his post, it reads like a scam.

I'm not scared away by one person though.


also, you're in the speculation thread. For non pyramid/we're-gonna-be-bajillionaires-one-day-how-will-you-spend-your-billions conversations, there are many other places Smiley on bitcointalk, its the ANN thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.25800

There's also the getmonero.org forum, where the funding system has recently blasted off

And of course IRC #monero and #monero-dev
hero member
Activity: 649
Merit: 500
July 14, 2015, 05:30:55 AM
Does anyone know if there is a ratio or theoretical number where owning more of an asset by one individual actually decreases it's possible value?  For example, we can all agree that owning 1% will make you obscenely wealthy if Monero goes the distance.  That relies on the other 99% becoming widely distributed and a major standard for transacting goods and services across the world.  
  
But, let's say there are 100 of us and we all buy 1%.  Well, we have n-person-prisoner-dilemma-fucked ourselves because now no one can reasonably transact with the asset (and it will likely be discredited long before this becomes a fact).  
  
It would seem that buried within the mountains of magic numbers there is a game theory solution for the maximal amount of an asset a rational player should ever seek to own, even if they suspect (hope) the value/utility will one day explode to orders of magnitude above its current state.



I would urge everyone to limit their holdings.  Excessive concentration of ownership will damage the upside.


This is no doubt true. Do you have any suggestions on some appropriate numbers though?

18.6k would be .1% of the long-term supply.  I would not fault anyone for owning that much.  1000 enthusiasts would, conceivably, suffice to build an economy, which would disperse ownership as others became involved. 

Anyhow, as long as price is under downward pressure, you should not feel guilty (or foolish) for buying too much, no matter how much you own.  You can always sell it later, at a BTC profit, when price is trending up, if you think it is wise to reduce your holdings to aid dispersion.

legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
July 14, 2015, 05:11:25 AM
The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.

You are right, but his post reads like a "I don't give a shit about monero but only want to get people join this pyramid so I can cash out and ride a pink elephant."
Don't understand me wrong, I also want to ride a pink elephant but I want to ride it sooner than him.
He doesn't really invite me to join his pyramid by his post, it reads like a scam.

I'm not scared away by one person though.


Well, I have to be honest with you: I like Monero mostly because it is scarce/low inflationary and potentially therefore valuable. Money in general doesn't stir up large feelings but I personally try to act rationally.
Therefore as my savings I prefer a pyramid scheme rather than highly inflationary asset class.
I do give the same amount of shit to Monero than to euro/dollar/gold, or sligthly more since Monero is more like a pyramid scheme.
I agree the word "pyramid scheme" might scare some folks though and it is better not to advertise as such but practically speaking it is a fascinating concept to make seemingly abudant (bits on the screen) a scarce pyramid type of scheme.

But I agree, there is also the technological aspect of Monero, too. Personally I am more fascinated the pyramid though as it makes me potentially a wealthy Gentleman in a few years from now.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1008
Delusional crypto obsessionist
July 14, 2015, 05:03:56 AM
The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.

You are right, but his post reads like a "I don't give a shit about monero but only want to get people join this pyramid so I can cash out and ride a pink elephant."
Don't understand me wrong, I also want to ride a pink elephant but I want to ride it sooner than him.
He doesn't really invite me to join his pyramid by his post, it reads like a scam.

I'm not scared away by one person though.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
July 14, 2015, 04:31:13 AM
The pyramid structure is the only way something can be made valuable in general.
Therefore I am fascinated on pyramid schemes (not scams but honest pyramid schemes).
Pyramid structure means, there is a limited amount of assets and the value of the owner's slice increase when more people come in.
Let's consider gold bullion as an example: there is limited amount of gold in existence. When you have a "significiant slice" of world's gold supply (it is not that large since gold in existence is surprisingly scarce), you want others to buy also gold driving the purchasing power of your gold higher and thus you are climbimg in the pyramid to higher levels.
The same analogy applies to stocks, real estates, silver, pink diamonds, old cars, fiat money, you name it - anything valuable.
G2M
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Activity: 616
July 14, 2015, 04:01:07 AM
What would you sell a new friend then?

Immediately coming to mind would be things like a used car, old guns, discounted service in my line of work, gold or other commodities.

All these things are valuable, much like I consider Monero to be valuable.

How could it be wrong to sell someone something with value?

My mindset must be different here, I was under the impression that this will be something that would be with me for at least the next 40 years (as this may be the extent of my lifetime, not sure).

Why would I not want my friends involved in it, or at least discuss it seriously with them? Especially if, I would imagine, i'd feel pretty terrible as I watched them remain paupers while I suddenly find myself surrounded my incredible amounts of value at some point in the future.

Maybe I am wrong, but it's a risk I'd be willing to take for people i'd like to like, personally. Part of me.

If my friends can drone on and on about going to their sports game, going places, listening to their work exploits, games they'd like to play with me, or otherwise, surely I'm in the right to drone on and on about Monero and how i'd like it if they took one or two thousand dollars and threw it into the ring.

I dunno. Guess I'll just have to try it out and see. I mean it's already worked twice so far, with no hard feelings.

Is it wrong that I'm willing to suffer their grief if this all goes sideways? Do I value people too little? Or do I value Monero too little?

Quote
I'm interested in monero but seeing you talk about "a considerable amount of time can be spent per 'recruit'" sets some red flags.
You really should try to make it sound less like a pyramid sheme because your whole post is drenched in a pyramid flavour.

Fine, I'll call them people. Sorry if I'm not so personable. It's something I'm workin on. If it came off sounding pyramidy then it's mostly because of the rushed mood i feel like i'm in for no reason at all .. sometimes you just forget that you're talking to real people, ya know? Like, you just want to write things that make sense, but end up writing the dumbest damn things.

Maybe I did it to sabotage myself, because I've got doubts and would rather end up nowhere. I'm tricky like that, stupid brain fighting me the whole way Wink

Guess I can stop typing now?
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