[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1987.

rpietila

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Quote from: MoneroMooo on March 29, 2015, 07:51:06 AM

Quote from: GingerAle on March 29, 2015, 07:12:12 AM

any other things to add to the list?

Short squeeze Cheesy

In a way, yes. Many who have sold in anticipation to buy lower are getting convinced that their trade went bad and are buying back.

- Increased confidence (volatility has been decreasing lately)
- New (Venture Capital -mindset) money is entering in (possibly several 5-figure USD = XMR positions, some perhaps larger) <= not all of this are believers though, some may be looking for a quick buck, which for them is 1-5 years and anything more than 10x gain

The last reason, which I know to be true, however don't know the full extent, is what I have been expecting to happen. These investors are bridging the gap between the reality of expectations(TM) and valuation, of which the latter has been lagging. When the valuation catches the reality, they exit or lighten up.

MoneroMooo

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Quote from: GingerAle on March 29, 2015, 07:12:12 AM

any other things to add to the list?

Short squeeze Cheesy

generalizethis

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Facts are more efficient than fud

Quote from: GingerAle on March 29, 2015, 07:12:12 AM

Okay, so in the polo trollbox and other places, the question often arises "why is XMR price rising". Here are some possibilities in no particular order

XMR provides a valuable service (cryptographically secure private transactions)
active core development
active ecosystem development (openalias)
people that hear about DASH also hear about XMR and decide to buy XMR instead
XMR.to allows you to use XMR wherever XBT (BTC) is accepted
active community (close to instantaneous responses on forums and IRC)
Major XBT market maker said "xmr will now start rising"
Recent bitcoin fungibility problem awareness
XMR is undervalued
XMR was artificially undervalued due to BCX attack threat circa 10/2014
Staying power - been around for almost a year (birthday less than 1 month away)
Large consistent market volume
The longest and slowest pump 'n dump is underway (price has been rising for a month)
I think we're exiting the most linear phase of the ~4 year emission curve - already a 3rd (6 million) of available coins have been emitted

false reasons XMR price is rising:
XMR devs convincing people to buy monero: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10893672
Monero is a taco

any other things to add to the list?

(paraphrasing)

Fluffy telling people not to buy Monero if they're just speculating, but only if they believe in the project or are using it--preferably both. I love it when leadership is open and honest and doesn't delude people with false promises or play-up inflated expectations.

GingerAle

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Okay, so in the polo trollbox and other places, the question often arises "why is XMR price rising". Here are some possibilities in no particular order

XMR provides a valuable service (cryptographically secure private transactions)
active core development
active ecosystem development (openalias)
people that hear about DASH also hear about XMR and decide to buy XMR instead
XMR.to allows you to use XMR wherever XBT (BTC) is accepted
active community (close to instantaneous responses on forums and IRC)
Major XBT market maker said "xmr will now start rising"
Recent bitcoin fungibility problem awareness
XMR is undervalued
XMR was artificially undervalued due to BCX attack threat circa 10/2014
Staying power - been around for almost a year (birthday less than 1 month away)
Large consistent market volume
The longest and slowest pump 'n dump is underway (price has been rising for a month)
I think we're exiting the most linear phase of the ~4 year emission curve - already a 3rd (6 million) of available coins have been emitted

false reasons XMR price is rising:
XMR devs convincing people to buy monero: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10893672
Monero is a taco

any other things to add to the list?

razen489

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monero price above 0.003 the new normal? https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc

TrueCryptonaire

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When it comes to speculation, when do you estimate we will have strong support over 0.005?

opennux

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Quote from: Gladimor on March 28, 2015, 08:46:28 PM

Quote from: futureofbitcoin on March 28, 2015, 08:43:51 PM

Quote from: Gladimor on March 28, 2015, 06:56:26 PM

For those of you that think that mining at a "loss" is stupid, most of the people mining XMR are doing so in speculation that Monero will be more valuable in the future. They technically are not mining at a loss, until they sell at current prices.

Well, if they could buy the coins without mining for a cheaper price then it is stupid from an economics perspective. I mean you have to upkeep the machines and stuff, it's a lot more work than just buying coins. So if mining doesn't produce a profit, then they probably should have another motive other than money.

Most of the people mining XMR- that I have met- have said that they mined XMR for "fun".

Not everyone has easy access to the banking system or a market price exchange. Hence it can be hard to buy BTC (at market prices) and therefore XMR (at market prices).

That's also disregarding sunk costs, and widely varying electricity costs around the world. Why'd wouldn't you mine them if you're not paying for the electricity, and you want to support the tech OR see that it makes sense to mine a private coin if your mining is shady (using uni/corporate/school/etc. hardware).

Gladimor

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Monero- Secure. Private. Untraceable.

xxxgoodgirls

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http://news.diginomics.com/evolution-marketplace-collapse-violates-bitcoin-fungibility/

XMR has been nominated!

smooth

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Quote from: futureofbitcoin on March 28, 2015, 08:43:51 PM

Quote from: Gladimor on March 28, 2015, 06:56:26 PM

For those of you that think that mining at a "loss" is stupid, most of the people mining XMR are doing so in speculation that Monero will be more valuable in the future. They technically are not mining at a loss, until they sell at current prices.

Well, if they could buy the coins without mining for a cheaper price then it is stupid from an economics perspective. I mean you have to upkeep the machines and stuff, it's a lot more work than just buying coins. So if mining doesn't produce a profit, then they probably should have another motive other than money.

It's not necessarily true it is less work to buy coins. It is hard for many people to get btc and nearly impossible to buy XMR without btc.

Gladimor

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Quote from: futureofbitcoin on March 28, 2015, 08:43:51 PM

Quote from: Gladimor on March 28, 2015, 06:56:26 PM

For those of you that think that mining at a "loss" is stupid, most of the people mining XMR are doing so in speculation that Monero will be more valuable in the future. They technically are not mining at a loss, until they sell at current prices.

Well, if they could buy the coins without mining for a cheaper price then it is stupid from an economics perspective. I mean you have to upkeep the machines and stuff, it's a lot more work than just buying coins. So if mining doesn't produce a profit, then they probably should have another motive other than money.

Most of the people mining XMR- that I have met- have said that they mined XMR for "fun".

futureofbitcoin

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Quote from: Gladimor on March 28, 2015, 06:56:26 PM

For those of you that think that mining at a "loss" is stupid, most of the people mining XMR are doing so in speculation that Monero will be more valuable in the future. They technically are not mining at a loss, until they sell at current prices.

Well, if they could buy the coins without mining for a cheaper price then it is stupid from an economics perspective. I mean you have to upkeep the machines and stuff, it's a lot more work than just buying coins. So if mining doesn't produce a profit, then they probably should have another motive other than money.

othe

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The mining discussion is absurd, there is no other coin except DRK that people can mine with gpu's and that provides enough liquidty to sell.

And people mine at a loss, because they already have the hardware to do it, its like a credit.

Gladimor

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Quote from: smooth on March 28, 2015, 06:59:30 PM

Quote from: Gladimor on March 28, 2015, 06:56:26 PM

For those of you that think that mining at a "loss" is stupid, most of the people mining XMR are doing so in speculation that Monero will be more valuable in the future. They technically are not mining at a loss, until they sell at current prices.

I never said it was stupid, just that its different from what I have done. People have their own motivations to do things, all fine with me.

I was indirectly responding to TrueCryptonaire.

smooth

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Quote from: Gladimor on March 28, 2015, 06:56:26 PM

For those of you that think that mining at a "loss" is stupid, most of the people mining XMR are doing so in speculation that Monero will be more valuable in the future. They technically are not mining at a loss, until they sell at current prices.

I never said it was stupid, just that its different from what I have done. People have their own motivations to do things, all fine with me.

Gladimor

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For those of you that think that mining at a "loss" is stupid, most of the people mining XMR are doing so in speculation that Monero will be more valuable in the future. They technically are not mining at a loss, until they sell at current prices.

smooth

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 28, 2015, 05:50:08 PM

Is it true that Monero is mined by botnets mainly?
For me it is irrelevant who is miner - I am not mining, I am buying it with hard currency so it doesn't play any role to whom I pay for my coins.

Fairly hard to say. I think it is a significant factor in mining, as are cloud computing scammers (e.g. buying time without viable payment credentials). The cloud vendors are being dumb, but it seems they continue to allow it, so that's their problem.

As long as people are mining to make money (or explicitly mining to help the coin at at a loss), whether that's botnets, cloud cheaters, or whatever, it all makes the coin stronger, so I entirely agree with you it doesn't matter. The only miners who hurt are those who are motivated by attacking rather than profit, or are so centralized they could be exploited by an attacker (large pools come to mind).

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: generalizethis on March 28, 2015, 05:54:37 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 28, 2015, 05:43:56 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 28, 2015, 12:36:33 PM

If it dumps briefly as low as 0.0016 I will support the price. I have some coins in storage waiting from the heavenly rain.
I think there is not real dumping at 4 usd.
I do not recommend selling any coins before there is massive adaption from noobs that needs coins. We are holding coins for them so when they enter to the markets, I am ready to sell 10-20 xmr to them. Wink

That's some strong bullish signal right there, TrueCryptonaire gave up waiting XMR fall into his arms at 0.0005 Shocked

After all we were pretty close - sub 0.001.
If it had touched 0.0005 I would have scooped up some nice number of coins right there.
Meanwhile I bought silently on the way down. It was crazy and I felt pretty bad so I did not buy any significiant number of coins at each price point.
Nobody seemed to be interested in Monero and it was close to graveyard. I remember reading Warz desperate comments on Polo trollbox while the price kept dropping like a falling knife.

I was also trying to do my best to fear mongering - I wanted so badly the coin to drop to 0.0005. I guess I failed my mission. Cry

I remember some of the "don't catch a falling knife" posts (there were a few, don't remember who were the posters) but i made sure to adjust my buying to MORE with every post. I think I posted, "learn to juggle" around .001 and got slammed by the fear patrol. Tongue

Obviously it is not nice to have competition, therefore I had to warn others. LOL Grin

People who are fear mongering most likely has their own best interest. They want to buy it low.
Same thing applies to bitcoin speculation forums. You can easily see when to buy coins just when the number of FUD is the most highest point.

The pain is at its maximum level at the very bottom, always.

generalizethis

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Facts are more efficient than fud

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 28, 2015, 05:43:56 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 28, 2015, 12:36:33 PM

If it dumps briefly as low as 0.0016 I will support the price. I have some coins in storage waiting from the heavenly rain.
I think there is not real dumping at 4 usd.
I do not recommend selling any coins before there is massive adaption from noobs that needs coins. We are holding coins for them so when they enter to the markets, I am ready to sell 10-20 xmr to them. Wink

That's some strong bullish signal right there, TrueCryptonaire gave up waiting XMR fall into his arms at 0.0005 Shocked

After all we were pretty close - sub 0.001.
If it had touched 0.0005 I would have scooped up some nice number of coins right there.
Meanwhile I bought silently on the way down. It was crazy and I felt pretty bad so I did not buy any significiant number of coins at each price point.
Nobody seemed to be interested in Monero and it was close to graveyard. I remember reading Warz desperate comments on Polo trollbox while the price kept dropping like a falling knife.

I was also trying to do my best to fear mongering - I wanted so badly the coin to drop to 0.0005. I guess I failed my mission. Cry

I remember some of the "don't catch a falling knife" posts (there were a few, don't remember who were the posters) but i made sure to adjust my buying to MORE with every post. I think I posted, "learn to juggle" around .001 and got slammed by the fear patrol. Tongue

*

Quote from: generalizethis on December 17, 2014, 03:23:42 AM

Quote from: kawa900jc on December 17, 2014, 02:33:20 AM

Quote from: generalizethis on December 17, 2014, 02:18:46 AM

Quote from: kawa900jc on December 17, 2014, 01:53:31 AM

The 0.001 lever is broke. New low levels has to be discovered.
I invested 0.12 BTC @ 0.0012 but for now is was not a good choice.
Hopefully is was just a spike below 0.001 but the presure is to high I afraid.
Maybe I buy extra @ 0.0005?

For now strategy is holding and see where XMR hits the floor.
Never try to catch falling knives.

"If you can't catch falling knives, you'll never make it as a juggler." --juggler.

Stupid, misquoted myself--oh well.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: smooth on March 28, 2015, 05:16:08 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 28, 2015, 05:09:05 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 28, 2015, 05:07:40 PM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 28, 2015, 05:02:22 PM

Quote from: Gladimor on March 28, 2015, 04:53:52 PM

I'll just leave this here one more time...

Nearly none of the miners mining MONERO are dumping.

Do you know why? It is because it is:
1. Unprofitable to dump (Electricity costs > Mining revenue)
2. If free electricity, they could just mine WhirlpoolX algo coins and make 40% more money.
3. People that are mining Monero are mining one of the least profitable coins to mine.

Miner inflation is non-existent. Another +1 for Monero.

This doesn't make any sense.
Why are someone bothering to mine at loss?
My advice for any miner mining Monero at loss is to find a coin they can mine with profit, dump that coin and buy Monero instead. This strategy brings more Moneros for this particular miner.

Maybe because they believe in the future of Monero (and thus a higher price), it's basically the same many Bitcoin miners did in the past and even currently.

But that doesn't make any sense.
Still, if you believe in the coin but mining is done at loss, then mine more profitable coins that you can convert into a coin you believe in. You end up getting more coins that you believe in than by mining it.

A lot of the supposedly more profitable coins are small in size and subject to a lot of churn. If you want to minimize your time investment it may not be worth it to keep up with hot profitable coins to mine and just stick with one or a small number.

But really I don't know who is mining at a loss or why. I've mined over the years and when it turned into a loss and I didn't feel like putting the effort into finding something else to mine I just turned the miners off and sold the and waited or sold the equipment. But to each his own. Some people have fun with it and don't treat it as being strictly bottom line oriented.

Mining should adjust to the price fluctuation so that it is at least break even thing to do.

Is it true that Monero is mined by botnets mainly?
For me it is irrelevant who is miner - I am not mining, I am buying it with hard currency so it doesn't play any role to whom I pay for my coins.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1987. (Read 3314330 times)