Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1995. (Read 3313076 times)

Yeah it's nuts.

xmr is rocketing just now..... where is the roof ?

i just loose 1btc buy order at 0.001 , just for bter hack days................ HELL

I understand that by breaching one's privacy as such is kind of a way to show the value of privacy through Monero, but there's still, in my opinion, something wrong about not respecting people's privacy in the first place. We should not be the ones doing it to coerce, for lack of a better word, people to consider Monero.

We've tested the lower bound of demand, shaken out the weak hands among the founding holders, and now emission decline is reducing supply.  Failure to achieve critical mass is a reason to fail to go exponential.  That's very different from a reason for demand to decline below December levels.  And that is strictly required for a new low.

Each of these events seems likely to bring more visibility to XMR, and hence more demand.  Demand is really quite low because of a lack of uses.  Since the cryptocoins-dice disaster, xmr.to and CryptoKingdom constitute the bulk of the non-speculative demand.  Even bad news is good news for XMR at this point.

> 1. Bitcoin-style cryptocurrency not seen as useful (enough) by the market. Leads to same sort of downward liquidity spiral as above, but for the entire cryptocoin universe (except maybe other platform concepts such as Ripple, fiatcoin, etc.).

Negligible probability event.

> 2. Private cryptocurrency is not seen as useful by the market. Ditto.

Negligible probability event.

> 3. Bitcoin is perceived private enough or becomes more private (incl. sidechain)

Incredibly low probability event.

> 4. Zerocoin is perceived as trusted enough (both in terms of setup and cryptographic maturity)

Possible. Not sufficient.  It must also be usable.  Adequate trust is potentially achievable, but usability is a very low probability event.

> 5. Dark/dash is perceived as private enough (and/or is improved). Requires Dark/dash to also not collapse into a financial smoldering wreckage, or other non-privacy-related failure.

Now you're at the level of plausible conceivabililty, which is a high-water mark.

> 6. An unknown black swan technology replaces Bitcoin, and is perceived as private enough or has a private version.

That would be XMR, actually.  Very nice outcome.  

> 7. An unknown black swan technology replaces Monero's ring sigs, etc., and is perceived as private enough or has a private version. Monroe does not adopt/adapt, or fails to do so quickly enough.

Of your enumerated risks, this seems the most likely, and would require a failure of the community to adapt technically, forever.  The displacing competitor would have some more usable variation of zerocoin's privacy properties, in all likelihood.

In aggregate I don't think these suffice to make failure to thrive more likely than thriving.  Most of them are of pretty negligible likelihood, or depend on some dramatic technical innovation, which is certain to occur, but only after an unknowable delay, which is time for XMR to consolidate its niche.


I agree on that point, as a limit in the infinite bound.  But I have seen quite a lot of instances of a specific pattern which I think is dominating XMR valuation dynamics presently, and I consider it more likely than not that it will continue in this pattern:

When a company IPOs, there is a tendency for initial volatility to create a starting spike, after which a long, slow decline occurs, ending in a very wide bottom.  You can imagine the investor dynamics, as hot speculation becomes a quarterly grind.  When the business model and process matures to the point where organic growth is manifest, price rises, slowly at first, then in a sequence of manic rushes, as various tiers of investors pile in.  Such issues are often called 'virgins', perhaps because they have yet to experience their first ecstasies.

This is very much where I see XMR today.

What it needs to flourish is basically just a lot of sweat, to consolidate value-enhancing business processes and models.  In my view the overwhelming bulk of the early risk lies in the possibility that this sweat will not get invested in a timely manner.  The risk profile changes after dramatic success and value-expansion has been achieved.

Unfortunate but thats the nature of the beast i suppose. It would be hard to do advanced scripting on an opaque blockchain.

^

Does monero allow for the sort of scripting necessary to do atomic transactions?

great volume increase the last hours.
is a fraction coming from drk's profit?

In addition, Atrides is also working on an Openbazaar version for XMR.

Then, on the theory that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, it must be very closely aligned with what the project is about, eh?

but this could be a closer future (mercury exchange)

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/mercury-fully-trustless-cryptocurrency-exchange-looking-for-testers-946174

Ethereum launch is getting closer and closer. If they gain enough liquidity and allow xmr/btc decentralized exchange then I can imagine lot of dirty bitcoins are going to seek a new home in a safe exchange for always untainted new anonymous crypto like Monero.

Ethereum if successful could really increase the global liquidity in the whole crypto once people are allowed to trade without the counter party and security risk of centralized exchanges.

It would mean increasing the velocity of money which leads to inflation. Altcoins should rise.

Correct thinking? I guess Monero and Ethereum is still a bit a distant future

~32k coins bought at .0031 in 2 orders

I feel very discusted as someone classifies investors to classes of 1. Wanted investors 2. Unwanted investors.

I welcome everybody to the family - including drk community members.

Looks like you tried to read something from my writing that I did not say. The buyers obviously has to be solicitated/interested in owning it. Obviously that is the job of a salesman to find the people who are interested in buying it. Selling to millionaires is not a similar process than selling crab in Jerusalem old city Arab bazars. Who by the way remembered me last time I passed by that I was there a few years earlier (impressive).
The job of a booker is to try to find the potentially interested individuals and the seller's job is to close as many sales as possible.

I dont know what is the original idea of Monero but I certainly hope it is not to be owned by only us.

In my country it is public information how much anyone is taxed and therefore you can easily find the richest by visiting in a tax office. Some countries you need probably to be more sophisticated (like trying to get the contact infos of local golf clubs etc).

Look again at your stated intention for finding investors:
"A good way to make money is to try to find local rich people's contact details and start contacting them (not explaining things in technical jargon but in the language of average Joe), then find the right people and sell them coins with markup which is your salary."

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this behavior is the antithesis of what the Monero Project is working against. By doing this, one targets those he/she knows are rich, with no respect towards their privacy, primarily to solicit for their money simply because one knows they're rich and already deemed they could live without some amount of this money, without mind towards any other regard. This doesn't even attract the best kind of investor (read: educated) for Monero.

If these rich people did not agree to be solicited for investments, then leave them alone. If you, however, have built up a good reputation for others' wealth management, and people come to you asking for investment advice at their own accord, more power to you.

I am under the impression that during the last few days XMR has been gently nudged to stay in a holding pattern, not being allowed to rise or fall very much. Maybe to wait out the DRK hype? Or the final touches to the new release?

Someone is trying to manipulate Monero down.. it doest cost that much to buy the wall... 

I do not know if it is stupid money.
Usually the stupid people end up to poverty if they have had money at some point.

You are not able to make any money unless you do not take sometimes some serious risk. Monero currently is such risk. As stated here several times, the probability to fail is high but it is not certainity. And if it doesn't fail, it will go through the roof at some point.
Those rich people are well aware that they make money by taking risks (especially if their way to make the fortune is not inheritance but entrepreneurship). Monero is a speculation which only smart people does since the estimate value is high. On the contrary, the masses are stupid and they are gambling the unfair gambles (such as lotteries, futures, options etc).

That is true. There are a lot of people now with a lot of stupid money. Hooray quantitative easing.