Author

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1992. (Read 3313076 times)

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
March 27, 2015, 06:30:35 AM
So, just FYI, almost 40% of the available XMR supply has exchanged hands over the past month.

Methods: poloniex, 1 month view, 1 day candles, drag over each candle and record XMR volume. Sum up these numbers.

the comment re: "market making" got me curious what kind of market maker this would be.

And here's the data:

feb-24 172861
75085
71196
82312
148702
42298
141498
39531
43975
86541
137419
34022
63069
170410
227075
111596
74913
71218
106312
73859
112937
59925
59597
59322
25193
74677
121729
40361
55203
112734
41253
Mar 27 - 13057

sum = 2,749,880

total xmr supply at writing: 6,906,568


sr. member
Activity: 400
Merit: 263
March 27, 2015, 05:03:39 AM
Whoever has been doing the market making over the last month (if anyone is doing it at all): You are doing a masterful job, at least from my amateurish point of view.

sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
March 27, 2015, 04:45:52 AM
Guess I'll just have to wait for the next whale dump to get back in.

Whales are accumulating. The miners dump. I don't rule out a miner dump but in this environment with brisk demand that is pretty needless.

If I needed to sell 50k, it would not be hard to do. And if I needed to sell my produce, there would be no need to accumulate 50k before selling.

These are clearly evident in the recent days when lows have been rising quicker than the highs.

There will always be a whale dump to accumulate lower. You know this. Sometimes it will even cause panic selling. Wait didn't we just go through one of those?

I know many things, including that it takes about 3x overvaluation to be able to safely sell something and actually gain money whale scale. BTC has been in this situation 3 times during its history, I spotted all of them, in the first one actively refused to buy (bought later at $3), second one had time to sell for 1 day until it toppled and third one bought a castle. These I know. Monero has never been such overvalued.

I think it was 3x overvalued, and probably more than that when it was 0.01 and extremely immature with no track record. That was only for a short time, but long enough for me to sell more than once.

No this was not whale scale, but nothing about Monero is really, although that was the closest we got.

I agree. It would have been better if the price had stayed below 0.005 in June 2014, if only so that people didn't think a one week spike in price was representative of anything solid.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 27, 2015, 04:12:57 AM
Guess I'll just have to wait for the next whale dump to get back in.

Whales are accumulating. The miners dump. I don't rule out a miner dump but in this environment with brisk demand that is pretty needless.

If I needed to sell 50k, it would not be hard to do. And if I needed to sell my produce, there would be no need to accumulate 50k before selling.

These are clearly evident in the recent days when lows have been rising quicker than the highs.

There will always be a whale dump to accumulate lower. You know this. Sometimes it will even cause panic selling. Wait didn't we just go through one of those?

I know many things, including that it takes about 3x overvaluation to be able to safely sell something and actually gain money whale scale. BTC has been in this situation 3 times during its history, I spotted all of them, in the first one actively refused to buy (bought later at $3), second one had time to sell for 1 day until it toppled and third one bought a castle. These I know. Monero has never been such overvalued.

I think it was 3x overvalued, and probably more than that when it was 0.01 and extremely immature with no track record. That was only for a short time, but long enough for me to sell more than once.

No this was not whale scale, but nothing about Monero is really, although that was the closest we got.





legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1036
Facts are more efficient than fud
March 27, 2015, 04:10:04 AM
I am thinking about putting another 10BTC on XMR yet i also want to wait for a nice big dump....What do? Cheesy

I don't think that big dump is coming anytime soon--but it seems the buying isn't rushed, so you could buy a little each day and mitigate the chance of buying on a short-term dip. Risto has access to more market information, so maybe he can give you a better incite.
legendary
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1001
getmonero.org
March 27, 2015, 03:59:59 AM
I am thinking about putting another 10BTC on XMR yet i also want to wait for a nice big dump....What do? Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1036
Facts are more efficient than fud
March 27, 2015, 02:42:47 AM
There is no reason why XMR could not replace BTC

There reason XMR cannot replace BTC is that both are antifragile.

XMR only strengthens BTC.  If BTC needs to incorporate innovative features proven in XMR, it will.  And vice versa.

They are complements, not substitutes or competition, and should gravitate towards parity.


I respectfully disagree.
First of all, I do not think btc is the ultimate crypto currency. It is the first one like this type but certainly is not the ultimate.
I do not say bitcoin will be broken but I just dare to claim bitcoin might lose its popularity.
It is challenging to sell bitcoins these days to noobs. They think it is too expensive and in declining trend which is an adoption killer combination. Who wants to buy an asset that gets dumped, it is pure stupidity.

Monero can fix economically bitcoin's wild fluctuation problem and grow steadily (traders are here playing a crucial role - they give markets both sellers and buyers and thus cutting the over-reactions into both ways). On the other hand, accumulation and adoption will put Monero to rising price channel that might take years or even decades (unheard in crypto). Basically extremely long term steady bull-market for sure 99.99 % probability will attract huge amounts of money. But this needs to be proven by time and the price cannot rise too fast so that it will not feel risky investment. That is the factor that potentially be crucial in replacing bitcoin.

If I am not mistaken, the devs are working on option into XMR to use it also publically...? Am I completely wrong?
Anything that bitcoin has can be included into Monero.

I think you're referring to the viewkey.

* https://moneroeconomy.com/faq/en/how-can-monero-be-both-anonymous-and-transparent-same-time
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 27, 2015, 02:38:05 AM
There is no reason why XMR could not replace BTC

There reason XMR cannot replace BTC is that both are antifragile.

XMR only strengthens BTC.  If BTC needs to incorporate innovative features proven in XMR, it will.  And vice versa.

They are complements, not substitutes or competition, and should gravitate towards parity.


I respectfully disagree.
First of all, I do not think btc is the ultimate crypto currency. It is the first one like this type but certainly is not the ultimate.
I do not say bitcoin will be broken but I just dare to claim bitcoin might lose its popularity.
It is challenging to sell bitcoins these days to noobs. They think it is too expensive and in declining trend which is an adoption killer combination. Who wants to buy an asset that gets dumped, it is pure stupidity.

Monero can fix economically bitcoin's wild fluctuation problem and grow steadily (traders are here playing a crucial role - they give markets both sellers and buyers and thus cutting the over-reactions into both ways). On the other hand, accumulation and adoption will put Monero to rising price channel that might take years or even decades (unheard in crypto). Basically extremely long term steady bull-market for sure 99.99 % probability will attract huge amounts of money. But this needs to be proven by time and the price cannot rise too fast so that it will not feel risky investment. That is the factor that potentially be crucial in replacing bitcoin.

If I am not mistaken, the devs are working on option into XMR to use it also publically...? Am I completely wrong?
Anything that bitcoin has can be included into Monero.
legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
March 27, 2015, 02:30:51 AM
I recommend now for all the accumulators start buying all the available Moneros below 0.005.
There are not that many coins besides the manipulation walls.
0.005 is cheap Monero IMO. There is no reason why XMR could not replace BTC and reach at some point large price points. Therefore buying XMR at 0.005 (or 1.25 usd) is like buying btc at 1 usd range.
I would not be surprised if the price of XMR goes to new ATH during coming months so technically anything below previous ATH is a screaming deal.

For longer haul, any XMR you are able to get below 10 000 USD is extremely cheap.

It is important to remember that there is not enough Moneros for every person in the world and probably will never be.

I also bought a few today. Not that I need to buy any but simply helping the marketcap to be build.

BTW, I have no plan to sell any coins. The selling comes when there is something major happening (like mass adoption). Until that Monero is a great buy and I have no intention to sell coins. I am sorry to tell this all ye accumulator mates.  Cheesy

Sounding a bit like the DASH guys. Lets calm down Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
March 27, 2015, 02:23:00 AM
There is no reason why XMR could not replace BTC

There reason XMR cannot replace BTC is that both are antifragile.

XMR only strengthens BTC.  If BTC needs to incorporate innovative features proven in XMR, it will.  And vice versa.

They are complements, not substitutes or competition, and should gravitate towards parity.

Every moment we stay above 0.003 is a victory that will resonate throughout history for 1000 years!



Go Mustangs!
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
March 27, 2015, 01:59:59 AM
Guess I'll just have to wait for the next whale dump to get back in.

Whales are accumulating. The miners dump. I don't rule out a miner dump but in this environment with brisk demand that is pretty needless.

If I needed to sell 50k, it would not be hard to do. And if I needed to sell my produce, there would be no need to accumulate 50k before selling.

These are clearly evident in the recent days when lows have been rising quicker than the highs.

There will always be a whale dump to accumulate lower. You know this. Sometimes it will even cause panic selling. Wait didn't we just go through one of those?

I know many things, including that it takes about 3x overvaluation to be able to safely sell something and actually gain money whale scale. BTC has been in this situation 3 times during its history, I spotted all of them, in the first one actively refused to buy (bought later at $3), second one had time to sell for 1 day until it toppled and third one bought a castle. These I know. Monero has never been such overvalued.

Many generate lots of volume, yet barely break even no matter how "right" they think they are.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 27, 2015, 01:15:51 AM
I recommend now for all the accumulators start buying all the available Moneros below 0.005.
There are not that many coins besides the manipulation walls.
0.005 is cheap Monero IMO. There is no reason why XMR could not replace BTC and reach at some point large price points. Therefore buying XMR at 0.005 (or 1.25 usd) is like buying btc at 1 usd range.
I would not be surprised if the price of XMR goes to new ATH during coming months so technically anything below previous ATH is a screaming deal.

For longer haul, any XMR you are able to get below 10 000 USD is extremely cheap.

It is important to remember that there is not enough Moneros for every person in the world and probably will never be.

I also bought a few today. Not that I need to buy any but simply helping the marketcap to be build.

BTW, I have no plan to sell any coins. The selling comes when there is something major happening (like mass adoption). Until that Monero is a great buy and I have no intention to sell coins. I am sorry to tell this all ye accumulator mates.  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
March 26, 2015, 04:24:19 PM
Isn't Monero empirical proof that scam-free open source crypto projects are still viable?

Absolutely!
It's a gem for this reason if nothing else.
Glad to be around.


Yes it is. it is also one of the reasons I have invested in Monero and support the project.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
March 26, 2015, 03:07:46 PM
Warz told us on Polo trollbox that xmr is going to 0.004.  Grin

It doesn't take a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows.

We're seeing whales gobble up the cheap XMR in chunks of 100BTC...who are the fools selling for less than 0.005?

They must be botnet herders who need to pay their zombie providers, because no rational speculator would expect to be able to buy them back cheaper, given the 500+ BTC competing on the bid side and <200k XMR available at any price.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
March 26, 2015, 02:57:48 PM
Isn't Monero empirical proof that scam-free open source crypto projects are still viable?

Absolutely!
It's a gem for this reason if nothing else.
Glad to be around.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
March 26, 2015, 02:41:23 PM
Part of the nice thing about instamines is that the devs have a lot of incentive to make their project valuable.

Isn't Monero empirical proof that scam-free open source crypto projects are still viable? I'm not ready to laud the benefits of assorted scams until all the honest projects die off.

And, yeah, some shadowtrash sympathizers are on a deletion spree. My mundane mention of their PoW schedule (as stated on their OP) got deleted. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
March 26, 2015, 12:36:46 PM
The buy support is building up nicely.
Also the growth rate is optimal considering the price point.
When/if Monero approaches the parity with bitcoin, the growth rate will decline massively since then there is no "easy growth" left.

Buy support is accumulating, while supply at near-market rates is exhausted.

If not for the still-healthy emission, price would be going crazy.

Not many days left to buy the cheapest first-year coins...

BTC parity aside, there remains tremendous amounts of super-trivially-easy growth left until we pull even with Dashscam.   Cool
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
March 26, 2015, 12:35:50 PM
Mods are just deleting every criticism against this coin, they just deleted my comment again wtf, heres what you need to know about Shadow(scam)cash distribution: http://pastebin.com/S7aKCDgy

If it means that much to you then just start your own thread.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
March 26, 2015, 12:34:13 PM
Guess I'll just have to wait for the next whale dump to get back in.

Whales are accumulating. The miners dump. I don't rule out a miner dump but in this environment with brisk demand that is pretty needless.

If I needed to sell 50k, it would not be hard to do. And if I needed to sell my produce, there would be no need to accumulate 50k before selling.

These are clearly evident in the recent days when lows have been rising quicker than the highs.

There will always be a whale dump to accumulate lower. You know this. Sometimes it will even cause panic selling. Wait didn't we just go through one of those?

The slope of the retracements is getting more and more gentle with every rise though.

Very True. Chances are getting more and more scarce. What do you think they will try next? The BCX Fud Campain was a nice first salvo last time to make before the move.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 26, 2015, 12:27:57 PM
Warz told us on Polo trollbox that xmr is going to 0.004.  Grin
Jump to: