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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1999. (Read 3313076 times)

legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 24, 2015, 11:10:45 AM
Monero is trending up nicely. IMO monero is currently the number one anon coin. I'm just scared of zerocash...

Why are you scared of it? I have even not heard about it. What is its marketcap?
The rise of DRK coin is a serious threath to Monero (yes, it has been argued it is insta/fastmine - but honestly people do not care about it - only us who are geeks are caring about it).
I do not own any DRK (unfortunately) and I am not planning to hold it as the train has left the station in this coin IMO (marketcap is ~ 5 times higher than XMR and DRK is approaching LTC).
Should we start a war agains DRK (perhaps shorting it to the bottomless pit...?). I guess in Bitfinex it is possible to short DRK if I am not mistaken...? Is it a smart thing to do?
sr. member
Activity: 327
Merit: 250
March 24, 2015, 10:49:28 AM

Yes, it does. I only discovered Monero (well, rediscovered it from last May) because of Crypto Kingdom. Since then, I have put XX,XXX XMR into the game where it will stay.  I think the ratio of people to gamers in the crypto crowd is significantly higher than most demographics, so this has a great chance of taking off. 

Plus it's FUN!  Finally I can do something with my crypto that is something I would do outside of crypto. I can't underscore the importance of that-I believe that alone will bring the players. Oh, and they might discover Monero as a side benefit Wink

I don't want to say bad things about the game, and I plan on playing it myself once the online version is out. That said, I think the way it's advertised is extremely misleading. Take the bolded for example.

Of course that's where it will stay, because you don't have an option of taking it out. The XMR is given to the developers.

The game also has a high potential for locking up a significant part of the total supply in a "good" way.
It doesn't lock up anything, because the developers can take the money and use it for whatever they want, because it is now theirs. They are selling virtual items for their game, and while you can trade it with other people (assuming other people want it), the developers already sold these virtual items, the money is already theirs. Unlike an exchange, which may tie up funds because the exchange has obligation to let you cash out, this is a game where the money you spent is gone.

IMO, the items in the game, whether it's moneritos or ckg or land or stones should not be advertised as "worth X XMR", which makes it seem as they're pegged to XMR or something. But really, they're not. It's no different from buying stuff from a cash shop in any other game.

I have already talked with tf2honeybadger and asked him about the progress of the CKG (in-game gold) <-> XMR listing. He confirmed that it is happening. I have also heard this from the Crypto Kingdom people as well, so as far as I am concerned, there will be a medium of getting money in and also out in the near future.  My statement was meant to imply that I would keep the XMR in the game even after that bridge to poloniex is implemented.

As far as things being pegged to XMR, they are being pegged to XMR because the plans for implementation of a CKG to XMR listing is nearly complete.  I don't know about you, but if something is assumed to be having value soon, wouldn't it make sense to discuss it with that value attached to the items? Just because the tech isn't 100% complete doesn't mean the in-game assets are worthless.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
March 24, 2015, 10:08:06 AM
monero is currently the number one PROVABLY anon coin. I'm just scared of zerocash...

Fixed^.   Smiley

Don't fret about 0cash, it's still vaporware and involves substantial trade-offs of its own.

CryptoNote tech & whitepaper came out of nowhere. Maybe next months someone with a strange pseudonym will release an even better whitepaper.

Have a better whitepaper and implementation only goes so far.  Arguably inferior products win in their sectors all the time (cough, Windows, cough).

A real Monero-killer would have to be so much better that it overcomes our 1st mover and large network effect advantages.

Possible, but not likely, because XMR already does exactly what it says on the box, which is good enough to satisfy the anon market.

XMR is a moving target for competition because it's constantly improving and the ecosystem is blossoming, making it even harder to leapfrog.   Cool
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 250
March 24, 2015, 09:49:08 AM

Yes, it does. I only discovered Monero (well, rediscovered it from last May) because of Crypto Kingdom. Since then, I have put XX,XXX XMR into the game where it will stay.  I think the ratio of people to gamers in the crypto crowd is significantly higher than most demographics, so this has a great chance of taking off. 

Plus it's FUN!  Finally I can do something with my crypto that is something I would do outside of crypto. I can't underscore the importance of that-I believe that alone will bring the players. Oh, and they might discover Monero as a side benefit Wink

I don't want to say bad things about the game, and I plan on playing it myself once the online version is out. That said, I think the way it's advertised is extremely misleading. Take the bolded for example.

Of course that's where it will stay, because you don't have an option of taking it out. The XMR is given to the developers.

The game also has a high potential for locking up a significant part of the total supply in a "good" way.
It doesn't lock up anything, because the developers can take the money and use it for whatever they want, because it is now theirs. They are selling virtual items for their game, and while you can trade it with other people (assuming other people want it), the developers already sold these virtual items, the money is already theirs. Unlike an exchange, which may tie up funds because the exchange has obligation to let you cash out, this is a game where the money you spent is gone.

IMO, the items in the game, whether it's moneritos or ckg or land or stones should not be advertised as "worth X XMR", which makes it seem as they're pegged to XMR or something. But really, they're not. It's no different from buying stuff from a cash shop in any other game.
legendary
Activity: 1281
Merit: 1000
☑ ♟ ☐ ♚
March 24, 2015, 09:17:42 AM
Monero is trending up nicely. IMO monero is currently the number one anon coin. I'm just scared of zerocash...
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1011
Monero Evangelist
March 23, 2015, 10:38:56 PM
Here is the funniest part: Monero already won the "anon race", if such thing ever existed.
Nothing is won. There is no winner. Just different teams that prepare.

There is alot of work and stress ahead and only a small chance of succeeding. But the project itself is really worth, to really(!) give our best, to try everything possible.

Monero is only well-positioned today, but 1.) only against the public known competition.
CryptoNote tech & whitepaper came out of nowhere. Maybe next months someone with a strange pseudonym will release an even better whitepaper.

2.) the crypto landspace, tech and market changes very fast, who is being ahead can and does change very fast
(if u consider winning as surely given, you wont fight enough for the victory)


3.) people in general and especially people acting in a free markets, dont act logically or fact-based, superior tech doesnt gurantee success, having the best and most secure product  is worthless if nobody is going to use it, etc.

these are just three main points, there are alot more to consider
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 23, 2015, 07:19:04 PM
serious question, how is Monero going to come out on top?

I just dont' see it.

Maybe serious but can you be more specific? It is pretty hard answer such a vague question. Pretty much the only way to answer that would be with some kind of sales pitch, which we generally don't do and isn't appropriate to this thread at all.

Give your own opinion, and more importantly explain why.
legendary
Activity: 1639
Merit: 1006
March 23, 2015, 07:16:10 PM
serious question, how is Monero going to come out on top?

I just dont' see it.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 23, 2015, 06:39:45 PM
Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.

^ highly significant with huge potential impact leverage.

Imagine this game becomes even just moderately popular (not even considering black swan "hit" status). The number of users quickly goes off the chart compared to typical crypto user bases.

That would be true if the game actually lowered the barrier of entry to the crypto market, but I don't believe it does at this time (correct me if I'm wrong). So for now, the game's growth is still limited mainly to the cryptosphere.

However, if users could deposit fiat money with a credit card for the purchase of CKG or whatever the in-game currency is, then pretty much anyone could play it and benefit monero. I'm not in the loop with the game's development, so if this is already possible or planned, then disregard.

EDIT: perhaps new accounts must pay a certain amount to play the game, and their account comes with a fixed amount of CKG that is included with all new paid accounts. I'm looking for legal ways to easily distribute crypto that wouldn't be considered "money transmission." I'm not a lawyer.

There is a freemium model. People will be able to play for free, earn CKG at a slow rate, and earn moneritos (in game XMR) by playing.

sr. member
Activity: 327
Merit: 250
March 23, 2015, 06:30:18 PM
Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.

^ highly significant with huge potential impact leverage.

Imagine this game becomes even just moderately popular (not even considering black swan "hit" status). The number of users quickly goes off the chart compared to typical crypto user bases.

The game also has a high potential for locking up a significant part of the total supply in a "good" way.

Yes, it does. I only discovered Monero (well, rediscovered it from last May) because of Crypto Kingdom. Since then, I have put XX,XXX XMR into the game where it will stay.  I think the ratio of people to gamers in the crypto crowd is significantly higher than most demographics, so this has a great chance of taking off. 

Plus it's FUN!  Finally I can do something with my crypto that is something I would do outside of crypto. I can't underscore the importance of that-I believe that alone will bring the players. Oh, and they might discover Monero as a side benefit Wink
hero member
Activity: 795
Merit: 514
March 23, 2015, 06:21:23 PM
Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.

^ highly significant with huge potential impact leverage.

Imagine this game becomes even just moderately popular (not even considering black swan "hit" status). The number of users quickly goes off the chart compared to typical crypto user bases.

That would be true if the game actually lowered the barrier of entry to the crypto market, but I don't believe it does at this time (correct me if I'm wrong). So for now, the game's growth is still limited mainly to the cryptosphere.

However, if users could deposit fiat money with a credit card for the purchase of CKG or whatever the in-game currency is, then pretty much anyone could play it and benefit monero. I'm not in the loop with the game's development, so if this is already possible or planned, then disregard.

EDIT: perhaps new accounts must pay a certain amount to play the game, and their account comes with a fixed amount of CKG that is included with all new paid accounts. I'm looking for legal ways to easily distribute crypto that wouldn't be considered "money transmission." I'm not a lawyer.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
March 23, 2015, 06:03:32 PM
Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.

^ highly significant with huge potential impact leverage.

Imagine this game becomes even just moderately popular (not even considering black swan "hit" status). The number of users quickly goes off the chart compared to typical crypto user bases.

The game also has a high potential for locking up a significant part of the total supply in a "good" way.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 23, 2015, 05:49:58 PM
Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.

^ highly significant with huge potential impact leverage.

Imagine this game becomes even just moderately popular (not even considering black swan "hit" status). The number of users quickly goes off the chart compared to typical crypto user bases.
legendary
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1004
March 23, 2015, 05:46:58 PM
Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

There is this game that is only playable with Monero too...with over 100 players spending thousands of XMR there. I don't know of any game that accepts only Bitcoin and uses it as its in-game currency.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 23, 2015, 04:27:29 PM
Without a WalletNotify API within bitmoneroed does that limit the ability of exchanges or potentially a marketplace from incorporating Monero as the primary transaction payement service?

No, as evidenced by the several exchanges that have already done it (including a few more that aren't around any more).

Walletnotify/blocknotify are are APIs from bitcoin (and bitcoin forks) and when we support something closer to those (it likely won't ever be exact because of the inherent differences in the technology), it will become easier to integrate with systems already supporting those other coins. But without them it can obviously still be done, just with a bit more work.



Ok well then in terms of question Number 2. At $0.70-$0.75 isn't Monero under priced if it were to ever be used in lets say an underground market for example? And what other barriers would there be to implementation of Monero in such a marketplace if any?

The only right way to think about if something will go up or down is to think it from the perspective of supply/demand intermediation.
Supply we know from the parameters. Then you ask yourself a question will there be more propensity to hold coins than today. Note, if there are 2 guys holding each coin for 1 week and one coin per person, it means one coin is held 2 weeks (for instance, if I am paying my rent with 1 xmr after holding it for one week and the landlord of my appartment is holding the coin for 1 more week before cashing it out, the coin is held 2 weeks, but in the hands of different persons).
Therefore, creating chains of holders is important for developing the Monero economy after we have some kind of merchant acceptance.
Now we still are in the age of speculation so we need to think if the willingness to hold a coin will decrease or increase from the current level. Personally I think the price of the coin doesn't matter wether it is under/overpriced, all that matters is, will there be more held coins vs. emitted coins in the future than there is now.
I am optimistic in this and therefore I am holding. I am thinking there is relatively high chance of higher amounts of coins held than there is now. If I didn't think in this way I would have dumped (all) my coins long time ago.

Even if Monero fails in getting merchants, it doesn't mean it wouldn't succeed better than bitcoin. Monero is kind of better coin for storing wealth, in this it is a little bit like UNO but with bigger community.
The network-effect and adoption will happen by raising the price little by little all the time and making sure, the long term holders will not be at loss. That will create satisfied salesmen for the coin and the price can rise exponentially.

My point with the market place is that would be a reason for non-holders to then grab some monero and "hold" it (or part of it) at least for as long as they conduct business on the marketplace and thus increasing the demand. Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.

For Monero-virgins this is bargain especially if they are planning to spend fiat into this (rolling via bitcoin obviously).
If they are bitcoiners, the price is still right but perhaps not that good deal - especially if one has paid too much for their bitcoins. On the other hand, DRK, which is currently the leading private coin, is pumping and it is bitcoinwise 5-6 times more expensive than Monero.
My recommendation is to drop some darks when the price rises and buy Moneros instead especially as Monero is sliding down a little bit. There are also now plenty of Moneros for sale relatively close (last time I checked, 10 % with marketbuy costed ~ 100 btc).
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
World Class Cryptonaire
March 23, 2015, 11:35:25 AM
Without a WalletNotify API within bitmoneroed does that limit the ability of exchanges or potentially a marketplace from incorporating Monero as the primary transaction payement service?

No, as evidenced by the several exchanges that have already done it (including a few more that aren't around any more).

Walletnotify/blocknotify are are APIs from bitcoin (and bitcoin forks) and when we support something closer to those (it likely won't ever be exact because of the inherent differences in the technology), it will become easier to integrate with systems already supporting those other coins. But without them it can obviously still be done, just with a bit more work.



Ok well then in terms of question Number 2. At $0.70-$0.75 isn't Monero under priced if it were to ever be used in lets say an underground market for example? And what other barriers would there be to implementation of Monero in such a marketplace if any?

The only right way to think about if something will go up or down is to think it from the perspective of supply/demand intermediation.
Supply we know from the parameters. Then you ask yourself a question will there be more propensity to hold coins than today. Note, if there are 2 guys holding each coin for 1 week and one coin per person, it means one coin is held 2 weeks (for instance, if I am paying my rent with 1 xmr after holding it for one week and the landlord of my appartment is holding the coin for 1 more week before cashing it out, the coin is held 2 weeks, but in the hands of different persons).
Therefore, creating chains of holders is important for developing the Monero economy after we have some kind of merchant acceptance.
Now we still are in the age of speculation so we need to think if the willingness to hold a coin will decrease or increase from the current level. Personally I think the price of the coin doesn't matter wether it is under/overpriced, all that matters is, will there be more held coins vs. emitted coins in the future than there is now.
I am optimistic in this and therefore I am holding. I am thinking there is relatively high chance of higher amounts of coins held than there is now. If I didn't think in this way I would have dumped (all) my coins long time ago.

Even if Monero fails in getting merchants, it doesn't mean it wouldn't succeed better than bitcoin. Monero is kind of better coin for storing wealth, in this it is a little bit like UNO but with bigger community.
The network-effect and adoption will happen by raising the price little by little all the time and making sure, the long term holders will not be at loss. That will create satisfied salesmen for the coin and the price can rise exponentially.

My point with the market place is that would be a reason for non-holders to then grab some monero and "hold" it (or part of it) at least for as long as they conduct business on the marketplace and thus increasing the demand. Right now other than speculation and potentially using xmr.to there are even less use cases for Monero than Bitcoin. Not that it's a bad thing (we are just early in the game), but it speaks to its upside price potential being much greater than it is now.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
March 23, 2015, 11:23:20 AM
short term downtrend for the 3th time since we broke 0.002. What is interesting is that these downtrends seem to be a little more flat every time it occurs again Smiley



I expect that the that this downtrend will be broken in the next 24 hours, maybe when the new missive is published Wink
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 23, 2015, 11:18:39 AM
Increasing only very slowly now: BTC is too low.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 23, 2015, 10:41:41 AM
Oh, its underpriced alright.  Unless you consider downside risks much larger and upside risks proportionately smaller than I do.



Are you personally increasing your Monero holdings these days?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 23, 2015, 10:32:53 AM
Oh, its underpriced alright.  Unless you consider downside risks much larger and upside risks proportionately smaller than I do.
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