[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1991.

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: GingerAle on March 27, 2015, 06:30:35 AM

So, just FYI, almost 40% of the available XMR supply has exchanged hands over the past month.

Methods: poloniex, 1 month view, 1 day candles, drag over each candle and record XMR volume. Sum up these numbers.

the comment re: "market making" got me curious what kind of market maker this would be.

And here's the data:

feb-24 172861
75085
71196
82312
148702
42298
141498
39531
43975
86541
137419
34022
63069
170410
227075
111596
74913
71218
106312
73859
112937
59925
59597
59322
25193
74677
121729
40361
55203
112734
41253
Mar 27 - 13057

sum = 2,749,880

total xmr supply at writing: 6,906,568

Does this make practical sense? I mean is it miners dumping and "whales" accumulating, yet keeping the price from moving too much?
We can't really know but a part of me wonders how much is just person A selling to person B and then back again. Of course this
happens with any coin, but I wonder what the "real" volume is. Can any whales comment? Grin

That said, we can't exactly complain at the state of things. I think we are seeing wave II of Cryptos come up before our eyes (anonymous).
And as another said earlier, we need distribution to really take place before we fall too low on the emission curve (say in the next 18 months or so)
and even then it will be the whales "job" to make sure a healthy amount of distribution occurs, after all -

Its about sharing

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Busoni gon be riiiiiiche

GingerAle

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1008

So, just FYI, almost 40% of the available XMR supply has exchanged hands over the past month.

Methods: poloniex, 1 month view, 1 day candles, drag over each candle and record XMR volume. Sum up these numbers.

the comment re: "market making" got me curious what kind of market maker this would be.

And here's the data:

feb-24 172861
75085
71196
82312
148702
42298
141498
39531
43975
86541
137419
34022
63069
170410
227075
111596
74913
71218
106312
73859
112937
59925
59597
59322
25193
74677
121729
40361
55203
112734
41253
Mar 27 - 13057

sum = 2,749,880

total xmr supply at writing: 6,906,568

Shrikez

sr. member

Activity: 400

Merit: 263

Whoever has been doing the market making over the last month (if anyone is doing it at all): You are doing a masterful job, at least from my amateurish point of view.

Quicken

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: smooth on March 27, 2015, 04:12:57 AM

Quote from: rpietila on March 27, 2015, 01:59:59 AM

Quote from: Hueristic on March 26, 2015, 11:46:16 AM

Quote from: rpietila on March 26, 2015, 11:10:21 AM

Quote from: Hueristic on March 26, 2015, 11:01:08 AM

Guess I'll just have to wait for the next whale dump to get back in.

Whales are accumulating. The miners dump. I don't rule out a miner dump but in this environment with brisk demand that is pretty needless.

If I needed to sell 50k, it would not be hard to do. And if I needed to sell my produce, there would be no need to accumulate 50k before selling.

These are clearly evident in the recent days when lows have been rising quicker than the highs.

There will always be a whale dump to accumulate lower. You know this. Sometimes it will even cause panic selling. Wait didn't we just go through one of those?

I know many things, including that it takes about 3x overvaluation to be able to safely sell something and actually gain money whale scale. BTC has been in this situation 3 times during its history, I spotted all of them, in the first one actively refused to buy (bought later at $3), second one had time to sell for 1 day until it toppled and third one bought a castle. These I know. Monero has never been such overvalued.

I think it was 3x overvalued, and probably more than that when it was 0.01 and extremely immature with no track record. That was only for a short time, but long enough for me to sell more than once.

No this was not whale scale, but nothing about Monero is really, although that was the closest we got.

I agree. It would have been better if the price had stayed below 0.005 in June 2014, if only so that people didn't think a one week spike in price was representative of anything solid.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: rpietila on March 27, 2015, 01:59:59 AM

Quote from: Hueristic on March 26, 2015, 11:46:16 AM

Quote from: rpietila on March 26, 2015, 11:10:21 AM

Quote from: Hueristic on March 26, 2015, 11:01:08 AM

Guess I'll just have to wait for the next whale dump to get back in.

Whales are accumulating. The miners dump. I don't rule out a miner dump but in this environment with brisk demand that is pretty needless.

If I needed to sell 50k, it would not be hard to do. And if I needed to sell my produce, there would be no need to accumulate 50k before selling.

These are clearly evident in the recent days when lows have been rising quicker than the highs.

There will always be a whale dump to accumulate lower. You know this. Sometimes it will even cause panic selling. Wait didn't we just go through one of those?

I know many things, including that it takes about 3x overvaluation to be able to safely sell something and actually gain money whale scale. BTC has been in this situation 3 times during its history, I spotted all of them, in the first one actively refused to buy (bought later at $3), second one had time to sell for 1 day until it toppled and third one bought a castle. These I know. Monero has never been such overvalued.

I think it was 3x overvalued, and probably more than that when it was 0.01 and extremely immature with no track record. That was only for a short time, but long enough for me to sell more than once.

No this was not whale scale, but nothing about Monero is really, although that was the closest we got.

generalizethis

legendary

Activity: 1750

Merit: 1036

Facts are more efficient than fud

Quote from: GreekBitcoin on March 27, 2015, 03:59:59 AM

I am thinking about putting another 10BTC on XMR yet i also want to wait for a nice big dump....What do? Cheesy

I don't think that big dump is coming anytime soon--but it seems the buying isn't rushed, so you could buy a little each day and mitigate the chance of buying on a short-term dip. Risto has access to more market information, so maybe he can give you a better incite.

GreekBitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1001

getmonero.org

I am thinking about putting another 10BTC on XMR yet i also want to wait for a nice big dump....What do? Cheesy

generalizethis

legendary

Activity: 1750

Merit: 1036

Facts are more efficient than fud

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2015, 02:38:05 AM

Quote from: iCEBREAKER on March 27, 2015, 02:23:00 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2015, 01:15:51 AM

There is no reason why XMR could not replace BTC

There reason XMR cannot replace BTC is that both are antifragile.

XMR only strengthens BTC. If BTC needs to incorporate innovative features proven in XMR, it will. And vice versa.

They are complements, not substitutes or competition, and should gravitate towards parity.

I respectfully disagree.
First of all, I do not think btc is the ultimate crypto currency. It is the first one like this type but certainly is not the ultimate.
I do not say bitcoin will be broken but I just dare to claim bitcoin might lose its popularity.
It is challenging to sell bitcoins these days to noobs. They think it is too expensive and in declining trend which is an adoption killer combination. Who wants to buy an asset that gets dumped, it is pure stupidity.

Monero can fix economically bitcoin's wild fluctuation problem and grow steadily (traders are here playing a crucial role - they give markets both sellers and buyers and thus cutting the over-reactions into both ways). On the other hand, accumulation and adoption will put Monero to rising price channel that might take years or even decades (unheard in crypto). Basically extremely long term steady bull-market for sure 99.99 % probability will attract huge amounts of money. But this needs to be proven by time and the price cannot rise too fast so that it will not feel risky investment. That is the factor that potentially be crucial in replacing bitcoin.

If I am not mistaken, the devs are working on option into XMR to use it also publically...? Am I completely wrong?
Anything that bitcoin has can be included into Monero.

I think you're referring to the viewkey.

* https://moneroeconomy.com/faq/en/how-can-monero-be-both-anonymous-and-transparent-same-time

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: iCEBREAKER on March 27, 2015, 02:23:00 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2015, 01:15:51 AM

There is no reason why XMR could not replace BTC

There reason XMR cannot replace BTC is that both are antifragile.

XMR only strengthens BTC. If BTC needs to incorporate innovative features proven in XMR, it will. And vice versa.

They are complements, not substitutes or competition, and should gravitate towards parity.

I respectfully disagree.
First of all, I do not think btc is the ultimate crypto currency. It is the first one like this type but certainly is not the ultimate.
I do not say bitcoin will be broken but I just dare to claim bitcoin might lose its popularity.
It is challenging to sell bitcoins these days to noobs. They think it is too expensive and in declining trend which is an adoption killer combination. Who wants to buy an asset that gets dumped, it is pure stupidity.

Monero can fix economically bitcoin's wild fluctuation problem and grow steadily (traders are here playing a crucial role - they give markets both sellers and buyers and thus cutting the over-reactions into both ways). On the other hand, accumulation and adoption will put Monero to rising price channel that might take years or even decades (unheard in crypto). Basically extremely long term steady bull-market for sure 99.99 % probability will attract huge amounts of money. But this needs to be proven by time and the price cannot rise too fast so that it will not feel risky investment. That is the factor that potentially be crucial in replacing bitcoin.

If I am not mistaken, the devs are working on option into XMR to use it also publically...? Am I completely wrong?
Anything that bitcoin has can be included into Monero.

farfiman

legendary

Activity: 1449

Merit: 1001

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2015, 01:15:51 AM

I recommend now for all the accumulators start buying all the available Moneros below 0.005.
There are not that many coins besides the manipulation walls.
0.005 is cheap Monero IMO. There is no reason why XMR could not replace BTC and reach at some point large price points. Therefore buying XMR at 0.005 (or 1.25 usd) is like buying btc at 1 usd range.
I would not be surprised if the price of XMR goes to new ATH during coming months so technically anything below previous ATH is a screaming deal.

For longer haul, any XMR you are able to get below 10 000 USD is extremely cheap.

It is important to remember that there is not enough Moneros for every person in the world and probably will never be.

I also bought a few today. Not that I need to buy any but simply helping the marketcap to be build.

BTW, I have no plan to sell any coins. The selling comes when there is something major happening (like mass adoption). Until that Monero is a great buy and I have no intention to sell coins. I am sorry to tell this all ye accumulator mates. Cheesy

Sounding a bit like the DASH guys. Lets calm down

iCEBREAKER

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1072

Crypto is the separation of Power and State.

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 27, 2015, 01:15:51 AM

There is no reason why XMR could not replace BTC

There reason XMR cannot replace BTC is that both are antifragile.

XMR only strengthens BTC. If BTC needs to incorporate innovative features proven in XMR, it will. And vice versa.

They are complements, not substitutes or competition, and should gravitate towards parity.

Every moment we stay above 0.003 is a victory that will resonate throughout history for 1000 years!

Go Mustangs!

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: Hueristic on March 26, 2015, 11:46:16 AM

Quote from: rpietila on March 26, 2015, 11:10:21 AM

Quote from: Hueristic on March 26, 2015, 11:01:08 AM

Guess I'll just have to wait for the next whale dump to get back in.

Whales are accumulating. The miners dump. I don't rule out a miner dump but in this environment with brisk demand that is pretty needless.

If I needed to sell 50k, it would not be hard to do. And if I needed to sell my produce, there would be no need to accumulate 50k before selling.

These are clearly evident in the recent days when lows have been rising quicker than the highs.

There will always be a whale dump to accumulate lower. You know this. Sometimes it will even cause panic selling. Wait didn't we just go through one of those?

I know many things, including that it takes about 3x overvaluation to be able to safely sell something and actually gain money whale scale. BTC has been in this situation 3 times during its history, I spotted all of them, in the first one actively refused to buy (bought later at $3), second one had time to sell for 1 day until it toppled and third one bought a castle. These I know. Monero has never been such overvalued.

Many generate lots of volume, yet barely break even no matter how "right" they think they are.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

I recommend now for all the accumulators start buying all the available Moneros below 0.005.
There are not that many coins besides the manipulation walls.
0.005 is cheap Monero IMO. There is no reason why XMR could not replace BTC and reach at some point large price points. Therefore buying XMR at 0.005 (or 1.25 usd) is like buying btc at 1 usd range.
I would not be surprised if the price of XMR goes to new ATH during coming months so technically anything below previous ATH is a screaming deal.

For longer haul, any XMR you are able to get below 10 000 USD is extremely cheap.

It is important to remember that there is not enough Moneros for every person in the world and probably will never be.

I also bought a few today. Not that I need to buy any but simply helping the marketcap to be build.

BTW, I have no plan to sell any coins. The selling comes when there is something major happening (like mass adoption). Until that Monero is a great buy and I have no intention to sell coins. I am sorry to tell this all ye accumulator mates. Cheesy

ArticMine

legendary

Activity: 2282

Merit: 1050

Monero Core Team

Quote from: binaryFate on March 26, 2015, 02:57:48 PM

Quote from: eizh on March 26, 2015, 02:41:23 PM

Isn't Monero empirical proof that scam-free open source crypto projects are still viable?

Absolutely!
It's a gem for this reason if nothing else.
Glad to be around.

Yes it is. it is also one of the reasons I have invested in Monero and support the project.

iCEBREAKER

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1072

Crypto is the separation of Power and State.

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 26, 2015, 12:27:57 PM

Warz told us on Polo trollbox that xmr is going to 0.004. Grin

It doesn't take a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows.

We're seeing whales gobble up the cheap XMR in chunks of 100BTC...who are the fools selling for less than 0.005?

They must be botnet herders who need to pay their zombie providers, because no rational speculator would expect to be able to buy them back cheaper, given the 500+ BTC competing on the bid side and <200k XMR available at any price.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: eizh on March 26, 2015, 02:41:23 PM

Isn't Monero empirical proof that scam-free open source crypto projects are still viable?

Absolutely!
It's a gem for this reason if nothing else.
Glad to be around.

eizh

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 500

Quote from: Anon136 on March 25, 2015, 07:06:12 PM

Part of the nice thing about instamines is that the devs have a lot of incentive to make their project valuable.

Isn't Monero empirical proof that scam-free open source crypto projects are still viable? I'm not ready to laud the benefits of assorted scams until all the honest projects die off.

And, yeah, some shadowtrash sympathizers are on a deletion spree. My mundane mention of their PoW schedule (as stated on their OP) got deleted.

iCEBREAKER

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1072

Crypto is the separation of Power and State.

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 26, 2015, 08:04:59 AM

The buy support is building up nicely.
Also the growth rate is optimal considering the price point.
When/if Monero approaches the parity with bitcoin, the growth rate will decline massively since then there is no "easy growth" left.

Buy support is accumulating, while supply at near-market rates is exhausted.

If not for the still-healthy emission, price would be going crazy.

Not many days left to buy the cheapest first-year coins...

BTC parity aside, there remains tremendous amounts of super-trivially-easy growth left until we pull even with Dashscam. Cool

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: ?? on ??

Mods are just deleting every criticism against this coin, they just deleted my comment again wtf, heres what you need to know about Shadow(scam)cash distribution: http://pastebin.com/S7aKCDgy

If it means that much to you then just start your own thread.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1991. (Read 3314350 times)