9+x return in less than 60 days? That is a bold call.
See my possible break out scenarious mentioned above.
Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2172. (Read 3313576 times)
9+x return in less than 60 days? That is a bold call.
See my possible break out scenarious mentioned above.
The funny thing about it is that no one of us is actively trading our holdings, so we are not contributing to any bottoms forming. It might be just that we are the only ones that provide serious leadership about trading without daytrading ourself, and the market follows it.
Let's see if I can call a top occurring in October, I say the top here will be 0.037.
The reasoning is that we must form a top that is greater than Darkcoins top. If we do so, the market have chosen the definite anonymity coin.
Darkcoins peak was 0.027, if we go up above 0.027 the excitement will take us over 0.03.
Let's see if I can call a top occurring in October, I say the top here will be 0.037.
The reasoning is that we must form a top that is greater than Darkcoins top. If we do so, the market have chosen the definite anonymity coin.
Darkcoins peak was 0.027, if we go up above 0.027 the excitement will take us over 0.03.
9+x return in less than 60 days? That is a bold call.
Possible break out scenarios:
GUI wallet interface released by dev team.
Cryptsy ads XMR to their exchange. (Rumour)
Open Bazaar is modified to work with Monero.
A decent online wallet is released.
GUI wallet interface released by dev team.
Cryptsy ads XMR to their exchange. (Rumour)
Open Bazaar is modified to work with Monero.
A decent online wallet is released.
The funny thing about it is that no one of us is actively trading our holdings, so we are not contributing to any bottoms forming. It might be just that we are the only ones that provide serious leadership about trading without daytrading ourself, and the market follows it.
Let's see if I can call a top occurring in October, I say the top here will be 0.037.
The reasoning is that we must form a top that is greater than Darkcoins top. If we do so, the market have chosen the definite anonymity coin.
Darkcoins peak was 0.027, if we go up above 0.027 the excitement will take us over 0.03.
Let's see if I can call a top occurring in October, I say the top here will be 0.037.
The reasoning is that we must form a top that is greater than Darkcoins top. If we do so, the market have chosen the definite anonymity coin.
Darkcoins peak was 0.027, if we go up above 0.027 the excitement will take us over 0.03.
Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.
My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.
I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.
If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!
The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.
My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.
I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.
If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!
The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.
A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.
There is nothing alarming that would make anyone sell now. Frankly I think it's just daytraders selling, a lot of small fishes, trading in order to increase their XMR holdings.
Am I so unclear that you interpret my post as an:
- exhortation to sell?
- analysis that a dump is likely?
I have bolded the relevant parts, that in my opinion (and intention) support the view that despite there is a large but below 50% chance that we are sold into, it is still profitable to buy.
- walls always lie
except when they don'trelying upon someone else's ask or bid not to be pulled, except during the time it takes you to hit it, would be rather absurd, but a bid is a bid and an ask is an ask. it is liquidity. it has the lifetime of liquidity. you can rely on that.
Quote
- indicators are meaningless
except when they aren'ti shouldn't even start on this. you know they just provide (or fail to provide) a quantifiable edge. there's nothing meaningless about that. so i guess you're using "meaningless" in a specialized sense?
I have noticed a lot of times when me and rpietila pulled out numbers for bottoms forming, and most of the times the market have followed the numbers we put out.
Might be a coincidence or not, who knows.
Might be a coincidence or not, who knows.
im not trying to impress anybody, i was just pointing out that those walls are not so big compared to volume
risto above is basing hes "good analysis" on those walls, then he says walls lie and then he says im wrong
im just trying to point out these illogics
risto above is basing hes "good analysis" on those walls, then he says walls lie and then he says im wrong
im just trying to point out these illogics
Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.
My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.
I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.
If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!
The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.
My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.
I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.
If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!
The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.
A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.
There is nothing alarming that would make anyone sell now. Frankly I think it's just daytraders selling, a lot of small fishes, trading in order to increase their XMR holdings.
Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.
My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.
I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.
If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!
The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.
My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.
I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.
If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!
The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.
A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.
Ask-side is nearly over 250k atm.. :O
someone (h3speros?? lol) is trying to impress a lot of folks here, or dump would have commenced i think.
Ask-side is nearly over 250k atm.. :O
im just saying that volume and other indicators (like rsi or macd) are maybe more important then those "walls" because they are small compared to volume
My investment philosophy as regards XMR is quite simple:
- walls always lie
- indicators are meaningless
- volume is likely correct
- only thing that really matters is how many XMR you get to buy, and (secondary) how much you paid for them.
you were the one that started to talk about walls
volume is an indicator
and that last one is just pointing out the obvious...
im just saying that volume and other indicators (like rsi or macd) are maybe more important then those "walls" because they are small compared to volume
My investment philosophy as regards XMR is quite simple:
- walls always lie
- indicators are meaningless
- volume is likely correct
- only thing that really matters is how many XMR you get to buy, and (secondary) how much you paid for them.
I have no reason to "hope" that it would go up or down. It is hard to trade profitably if you let that affect your decisions.
About 6 people have 50,000 XMR or more (after all, 50,000 XMR is 1.5% of all the XMR that exists cf. similar % of bitcoins would be BTC200,000, hardly an insignificant amount as a bid support or size of dump
). Some of these people ARE dumpers, however, so it is fully plausible that occasionally one person would quickly unleash such an amount.
I am still waiting for your fact-based 12-line treatise, because your only meager content in the last post was easily proven to be absolutely wrong. I hope I am not being mean.
About 6 people have 50,000 XMR or more (after all, 50,000 XMR is 1.5% of all the XMR that exists cf. similar % of bitcoins would be BTC200,000, hardly an insignificant amount as a bid support or size of dump
). Some of these people ARE dumpers, however, so it is fully plausible that occasionally one person would quickly unleash such an amount.I am still waiting for your fact-based 12-line treatise, because your only meager content in the last post was easily proven to be absolutely wrong. I hope I am not being mean.
you have not proven anything, you don't know if i have more than 50k
all i said was that those "walls" are not so big, many ppl have so many bitcoins that they could come here in xmr market and draw some new curves to us to analyze
im just saying that volume and other indicators (like rsi or macd) are maybe more important then those "walls" because they are small compared to volume
I have no reason to "hope" that it would go up or down. It is hard to trade profitably if you let that affect your decisions.
About 6 people have 50,000 XMR or more (after all, 50,000 XMR is 1.5% of all the XMR that exists cf. similar % of bitcoins would be BTC200,000, hardly an insignificant amount as a bid support or size of dump). Some of these people ARE dumpers, however, so it is fully plausible that occasionally one person would quickly unleash such an amount.
I am still waiting for your fact-based 12-line treatise, because your only meager content in the last post was easily proven to be absolutely wrong. I hope I am not being mean.
About 6 people have 50,000 XMR or more (after all, 50,000 XMR is 1.5% of all the XMR that exists cf. similar % of bitcoins would be BTC200,000, hardly an insignificant amount as a bid support or size of dump
). Some of these people ARE dumpers, however, so it is fully plausible that occasionally one person would quickly unleash such an amount.I am still waiting for your fact-based 12-line treatise, because your only meager content in the last post was easily proven to be absolutely wrong. I hope I am not being mean.
Anyone have any reason to trust Hitbtc with money?
Poloniex is great, busoni already suffered a hack and reimbursed everyone. And busoni seems to be making a lot of money so it's not worth scamming anyone.
Not so sure about Hitbtc, but I really need another place to trade on sometimes.
Poloniex is great, busoni already suffered a hack and reimbursed everyone. And busoni seems to be making a lot of money so it's not worth scamming anyone.
Not so sure about Hitbtc, but I really need another place to trade on sometimes.
whats wrong with poloniex?
Anyone have any reason to trust Hitbtc with money?
Poloniex is great, busoni already suffered a hack and reimbursed everyone. And busoni seems to be making a lot of money so it's not worth scamming anyone.
Not so sure about Hitbtc, but I really need another place to trade on sometimes.
Poloniex is great, busoni already suffered a hack and reimbursed everyone. And busoni seems to be making a lot of money so it's not worth scamming anyone.
Not so sure about Hitbtc, but I really need another place to trade on sometimes.
No, that was mean
Rephrase: Please distill some of your knowledge on the topic in 12 lines for others to read!
i did read your post, i just wanted to point out that orderbook is thin compared to volume so those "walls" doesnt necessarily mean much, you don't have to be a big player to make those kind of "walls"
theres data that might suggest this downturn isnt over yet
are you also considering hitbtc? it has over 60% of poloniex volume
i have studied only poloniex data
No, that was mean
Rephrase: Please distill some of your knowledge on the topic in 12 lines for others to read!
i did read your post, i just wanted to point out that orderbook is thin compared to volume so those "walls" doesnt necessarily mean much, you don't have to be a big player to make those kind of "walls"
theres data that might suggest this downturn isnt over yet
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