[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2171.

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: Skinnkavaj on September 03, 2014, 12:17:02 PM

Possible break out scenarios:
GUI wallet interface released by dev team.
Cryptsy ads XMR to their exchange. (Rumour)
Open Bazaar is modified to work with Monero.
A decent online wallet is released.

I say BTC-e adding XMR will have a greater impact than it would being added to cryptsy.

saddambitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1004

Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 11:28:06 AM

Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 08:04:21 AM

Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.

In general I agree with this analysis. Until there are some fundamental developments (database, GUI) completed that enable the flood of new users unwilling to tinker with Monero in its current state, price will continue to oscillate making higher lows each time.

I suspect the 0.004 level will hold for this week and then buy support will erode to sub 300 BTC, slowly dropping to around 0.00365. We will see the XMR ask sum around the low of 160,000 and that will be the sign it is time to go up again.

With that being said, there have been no missives for a couple weeks - this could mean devs are just busy or perhaps they are close to reaching some big milestone and delaying the next missive until complete. I have no idea, but I am not selling any XMR right now.

Febo

legendary

Activity: 2730

Merit: 1288

What i prefer is that price will not go under 0.0035 this month, and not under 0.004 in October, and not under 0.0045 in December and in January not under 0.005.
I am lucky guy, since there is huge chance, what i prefer will happen. Grin

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1029

Sine secretum non libertas

Does anyone use cryptsy? I guess for the alts everyone else has delisted.

GUI before DB would be a mistake, IMO.

I would hope I would have heard about it if OpenBazaar work for XMR was close to ready.

That leaves online wallet. That could happen in a week or two, yes.

But you forgot gambling sites. That could happen soonest.

GreekBitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1001

getmonero.org

Quote from: Skinnkavaj on September 03, 2014, 12:19:01 PM

Quote from: vuduchyld on September 03, 2014, 12:17:49 PM

9+x return in less than 60 days? That is a bold call.

It's the altcoin market. Crazier things have happened before.
See my possible break out scenarious mentioned above.

No i prefer to see it double in 60 days than seeing it 9 times up. So big bubbles are bad. After all darkcoin is irrelevant as an anonymous coin anymore and when monero doubles its price it will be above darkcoin anyway...

Skinnkavaj

sr. member

Activity: 469

Merit: 250

English Motherfucker do you speak it ?

Quote from: vuduchyld on September 03, 2014, 12:17:49 PM

9+x return in less than 60 days? That is a bold call.

It's the altcoin market. Crazier things have happened before.
See my possible break out scenarious mentioned above.

vuduchyld

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: Skinnkavaj on September 03, 2014, 12:11:09 PM

The funny thing about it is that no one of us is actively trading our holdings, so we are not contributing to any bottoms forming. It might be just that we are the only ones that provide serious leadership about trading without daytrading ourself, and the market follows it.

Let's see if I can call a top occurring in October, I say the top here will be 0.037.

The reasoning is that we must form a top that is greater than Darkcoins top. If we do so, the market have chosen the definite anonymity coin.
Darkcoins peak was 0.027, if we go up above 0.027 the excitement will take us over 0.03.

9+x return in less than 60 days? That is a bold call.

Skinnkavaj

sr. member

Activity: 469

Merit: 250

English Motherfucker do you speak it ?

Possible break out scenarios:
GUI wallet interface released by dev team.
Cryptsy ads XMR to their exchange. (Rumour)
Open Bazaar is modified to work with Monero.
A decent online wallet is released.

Skinnkavaj

sr. member

Activity: 469

Merit: 250

English Motherfucker do you speak it ?

The funny thing about it is that no one of us is actively trading our holdings, so we are not contributing to any bottoms forming. It might be just that we are the only ones that provide serious leadership about trading without daytrading ourself, and the market follows it.

Let's see if I can call a top occurring in October, I say the top here will be 0.037.

The reasoning is that we must form a top that is greater than Darkcoins top. If we do so, the market have chosen the definite anonymity coin.
Darkcoins peak was 0.027, if we go up above 0.027 the excitement will take us over 0.03.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: Skinnkavaj on September 03, 2014, 11:44:01 AM

Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 11:28:06 AM

Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 08:04:21 AM

Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.

Don't think it's a good analysis. We have been up and visisted 0.005 at least 2 times now on the shorter time frame, 4 times on the larger one. The big holders of XMR have already had their chance to sell.

There is nothing alarming that would make anyone sell now. Frankly I think it's just daytraders selling, a lot of small fishes, trading in order to increase their XMR holdings.

Am I so unclear that you interpret my post as an:
- exhortation to sell?
- analysis that a dump is likely?

I have bolded the relevant parts, that in my opinion (and intention) support the view that despite there is a large but below 50% chance that we are sold into, it is still profitable to buy.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1029

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 09:38:37 AM

- walls always lie

except when they don't

relying upon someone else's ask or bid not to be pulled, except during the time it takes you to hit it, would be rather absurd, but a bid is a bid and an ask is an ask. it is liquidity. it has the lifetime of liquidity. you can rely on that.

Quote

- indicators are meaningless

except when they aren't

i shouldn't even start on this. you know they just provide (or fail to provide) a quantifiable edge. there's nothing meaningless about that. so i guess you're using "meaningless" in a specialized sense?

Skinnkavaj

sr. member

Activity: 469

Merit: 250

English Motherfucker do you speak it ?

I have noticed a lot of times when me and rpietila pulled out numbers for bottoms forming, and most of the times the market have followed the numbers we put out.
Might be a coincidence or not, who knows.

h3speros

full member

Activity: 189

Merit: 100

im not trying to impress anybody, i was just pointing out that those walls are not so big compared to volume

risto above is basing hes "good analysis" on those walls, then he says walls lie and then he says im wrong

im just trying to point out these illogics

Skinnkavaj

sr. member

Activity: 469

Merit: 250

English Motherfucker do you speak it ?

Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 11:28:06 AM

Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 08:04:21 AM

Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.

Don't think it's a good analysis. We have been up and visisted 0.005 at least 2 times now on the shorter time frame, 4 times on the larger one. The big holders of XMR have already had their chance to sell.

There is nothing alarming that would make anyone sell now. Frankly I think it's just daytraders selling, a lot of small fishes, trading in order to increase their XMR holdings.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 08:04:21 AM

Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss!

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on September 03, 2014, 10:06:43 AM

Ask-side is nearly over 250k atm.. :O

someone (h3speros?? lol) is trying to impress a lot of folks here, or dump would have commenced i think.

Probably some showing off indeed, but I'm curious in which direction we will go.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Ask-side is nearly over 250k atm.. :O

h3speros

full member

Activity: 189

Merit: 100

Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 09:38:37 AM

Quote from: h3speros on September 03, 2014, 09:24:22 AM

im just saying that volume and other indicators (like rsi or macd) are maybe more important then those "walls" because they are small compared to volume

My investment philosophy as regards XMR is quite simple:

- walls always lie
- indicators are meaningless
- volume is likely correct
- only thing that really matters is how many XMR you get to buy, and (secondary) how much you paid for them.

you were the one that started to talk about walls

volume is an indicator

and that last one is just pointing out the obvious...

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: h3speros on September 03, 2014, 09:24:22 AM

im just saying that volume and other indicators (like rsi or macd) are maybe more important then those "walls" because they are small compared to volume

My investment philosophy as regards XMR is quite simple:

- walls always lie
- indicators are meaningless
- volume is likely correct
- only thing that really matters is how many XMR you get to buy, and (secondary) how much you paid for them.

h3speros

full member

Activity: 189

Merit: 100

Quote from: rpietila on September 03, 2014, 09:13:41 AM

I have no reason to "hope" that it would go up or down. It is hard to trade profitably if you let that affect your decisions.

About 6 people have 50,000 XMR or more (after all, 50,000 XMR is 1.5% of all the XMR that exists cf. similar % of bitcoins would be BTC200,000, hardly an insignificant amount as a bid support or size of dump ). Some of these people ARE dumpers, however, so it is fully plausible that occasionally one person would quickly unleash such an amount.

I am still waiting for your fact-based 12-line treatise, because your only meager content in the last post was easily proven to be absolutely wrong. I hope I am not being mean.

you have not proven anything, you don't know if i have more than 50k

all i said was that those "walls" are not so big, many ppl have so many bitcoins that they could come here in xmr market and draw some new curves to us to analyze

im just saying that volume and other indicators (like rsi or macd) are maybe more important then those "walls" because they are small compared to volume

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2171. (Read 3312350 times)