Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2174. (Read 3313070 times)

There is an absolutely perfect 50% retracement just put into place in Poloniex: from 0.00510000 to 0.00400000, with previous bottom at 0.00290000. This means that regardless whether we just hit a mid-move bottom (which in this case will not necessarily ever be visited again) or a downward resistance that will be breached later, the next move is resolutely UP, and the fibonacci possibilities are:

38.2% = 442
50% = 455
61.8% = 468
76.4% = 484.

If these are cleared, it is good possibility that this was a bear trap in large proportions. If the price turns down from these, we may be in a downtrend going ultimately to the 175-231-290 line, which could mean a bottom in the 330-350 range.

There is an absolutely perfect 50% retracement just put into place in Poloniex: from 0.00510000 to 0.00400000, with previous bottom at 0.00290000. This means that regardless whether we just hit a mid-move bottom (which in this case will not necessarily ever be visited again) or a downward resistance that will be breached later, the next move is resolutely UP, and the fibonacci possibilities are:

38.2% = 442
50% = 455
61.8% = 468
76.4% = 484.

If these are cleared, it is good possibility that this was a bear trap in large proportions. If the price turns down from these, we may be in a downtrend going ultimately to the 175-231-290 line, which could mean a bottom in the 330-350 range.

I agree. And actually 2 days ago i started mining there. But why post that on the speculation thread?

I'm very happy to see that the pool that donates most to the developers is increasing fast. Everyone who is mining for other than instant profit should mine there I think.

If the price turns down from these, we may be in a downtrend going ultimately to the 175-231-290 line, which could mean a bottom in the 330-350 range.

To be honest.

1) I think Monero is the best privacy/anon coin out there.
2) My next favorite is Darkcoin.
3) All the other anon coins besides those 2 with the exception of boolberry, are Crap(Yes I've looked into them to determine that their crapness), and I avoid at all costs

We are losing steam. My newbie sense of TA says that we are going to rebound somewhere around the 61% fibo  @.00365 before breaking .00581 for good so this could be a good moment to short.
...

Thats the reason, he holds a shitton of bbr and btcd.
No idea why BBR should even use that, it makes absolutely no sense as bbr already has anonymity.


Now back to topic dudes

Speculation can go extremely high if the roadmap is clear and confidence it will be achieved is high (I'm not saying either of these is necessarily the case).

If you expect a $100 million market cap in six months when ease of use is improved, and you expect that to happen with 80% probability, then a fair value now is very roughly $40 million. All inputs here are hypothetical but the model is not.

It's impressive that price speculation has come as far as it has what with XMR lacking some major ease of use features. I understand that there is a priority list for the developers and I'm not questioning that. However, how high can speculation really go without a large base of users that require things like SPV wallets?

I say that any of the bottom 3 scenarios are not plausible or sustainable until development progresses further. Bitcoin had Armory, Blockchain.info and mobile offerings before it hit a market cap of $100m (~ 15X today's XMR cap). Is it reasonable to expect Monero to do that with a CLI / desktop app that requires a more or less dedicated computer to run?

The following is only speculation about the price, and not intended to affect the trading decisions. Often trading decisions need to take into account volume, tax and other considerations.

Scenarios:

Fatal. Any of the following: Monero is found out to be a high level scam, Poloniex is hacked and coins stolen, tech breaks down etc. This would lead the supporters of Monero to stop their buying, and many speculators selling their coins. The exchange rate plummets to anything between 0 and 300. Going to zero in a short time is not likely unless the network totally crashes or even then (Goxcoins still have some value). The likelihood of this happening in the next 30 days is 1-5%.

Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.

Slightly negative. Price fails to break 580 this week, and retreats back to 400, however the previous bottom in 290 is not threatened. Accumulation phase may continue in the sticky price area of 400-450. Likelihood 20-40%

Neutral. Slow grind higher continues with occasional spikes and dumps, 580 is taken but no definite push towards ATH. Likelihood 20-40%.

Slightly positive. The uptrend continues with a higher ascent, about 3-4% per day, leading to near 1000 before 30 days, which will likely to be a venue of some shuffling of the deck. Likelihood 10-20%

Positive. 1000 is destroyed and march higher goes on relentlessly (may also make a bubble top and come down in the space of 30 days, nevertheless only after making a new ATH). Likelihood 10-20%.

Stellar. Some external event means that investment capital flocks into Monero, and even $10 million compared to the market cap of about the same range means that a completely new range is established. Price can go to 5000 in an instant, yet will find its support level much lower. Likelihood 2-10%.

Or they could just buy bitcoin instead in the knowledge that it is very easy to make it disappear and reappear at time and place of your choosing

In the zerocoin paper they claim a block with 800 zerocoin transactions would take five minutes (they really said minutes, that is not a typo) to verify. That is 2.6 seconds per transaction. In a decentralized network every node must verify blocks before forwarding them. Monero gets criticized for a proof of work that takes about 20ms per block, although it remains to be seen whether that turns out to be a problem.

This orders of magnitude away from being practical for a decentralized network.

There are private transactions, anonymous transactions and plausibly deniable transactions - each coming with tradeoffs. I could see situations where legit and illegit companies/persons would want to conduct private transactions but not necessarily anonymous nor impossible to prove transactions.

Organized criminal enterprises, high net worth individuals, intelligence assets (spies), etc all have reasons to want to prevent transactions from being discernible to outsiders but might want to be able to prove they made or received payments to certain 3rd parties. Even mobsters have accountants.

It's reasonable the feature set Monero offers could be superior to the one proposed by Zerocoin, under a broader set of circumstances.

Ask yourself this. Would someone looking to replace a swiss numbered bank account chosen for tax avoidance likely use a tool that will only be perceived useful to criminals or one that has broader purposes? I posit that Monero would be more palatable.

There are private transactions, anonymous transactions and plausibly deniable transactions - each coming with tradeoffs. I could see situations where legit and illegit companies/persons would want to conduct private transactions but not necessarily anonymous nor impossible to prove transactions.

Organized criminal enterprises, high net worth individuals, intelligence assets (spies), etc all have reasons to want to prevent transactions from being discernible to outsiders but might want to be able to prove they made or received payments to certain 3rd parties. Even mobsters have accountants.

It's reasonable the feature set Monero offers could be superior to the one proposed by Zerocoin, under a broader set of circumstances.

Ask yourself this. Would someone looking to replace a swiss numbered bank account chosen for tax avoidance likely use a tool that will only be perceived useful to criminals or one that has broader purposes? I posit that Monero would be more palatable.

Comparing Monero and Zerocoin, here is a post I made in the Anoncoin thread.