[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2181.

luigi1111

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Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 29, 2014, 05:31:47 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 29, 2014, 05:20:02 PM

Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Doesn't seem like such a high rate of emission when you consider that there are ~28000 Litecoins mined every day. If the higher price of LTC can be sustained, I see no reason why XMR cannot go much higher.

It's much much higher than LTC presently, but that's not really the point I guess. LTC isn't $100 after all. Tongue

Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but purely in terms of coins mined per day - isn't LTC higher? Monero is roughly at 21,000 coins per day and dropping daily. Litecoin is fixed around 28,000 per day until the next block reward halving.

I am referencing the data in the rpietila XMR Economics thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.140

No you are correct on absolute numbers of coins emitted, I was referring to inflation figures (which ARE relevant, but we can argue HOW relevant Tongue

).

However, given LTC's numbers, it could only support an XMR price of about .014! 0.0105*(28,000/21,000)

Edit: forgive my fail formula (which smooth quoted next page). Number was correct, formula not.

smooth

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Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 05:18:58 PM

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here! You've set it up so that everyone suffers.

There is a parable about this, but I couldn't remember where it comes from so I can't quote it properly.

But the thrust of it is that if something seems useless to you, you probably don't fully understand the purpose of it. Only when you can clearly understand and explain the argument in favor of something should you decide you are opposed to it, or vice versa. In fact most things that are worse for everyone doesn't even exist in the world. Ideas that dumb are quickly abandoned. So there must be someone for whom this is better. Try to figure out who that is and why.

Thinking that something is crazy or is worse for everyone when other obviously intelligent people disagree should be a clue that you don't understand it entirely. This doesn't mean you have to change your mind ultimately, but at least open it a crack.

saddambitcoin

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 29, 2014, 05:20:02 PM

Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Doesn't seem like such a high rate of emission when you consider that there are ~28000 Litecoins mined every day. If the higher price of LTC can be sustained, I see no reason why XMR cannot go much higher.

It's much much higher than LTC presently, but that's not really the point I guess. LTC isn't $100 after all. Tongue

Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but purely in terms of coins mined per day - isn't LTC higher? Monero is roughly at 21,000 coins per day and dropping daily. Litecoin is fixed around 28,000 per day until the next block reward halving.

I am referencing the data in the rpietila XMR Economics thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.140

Brilliantrocket

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Quote from: smooth on August 29, 2014, 05:18:17 PM

Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 05:06:22 PM

A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners , and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?

No, the difference is that this structure is compatible with a pump-and-dump scam. So buyers always have to be wary of it, which depresses the price and ultimately serves as a competitive disadvantage against cleanly launched coins.

Only systems that are structurally incompatible with fraud don't suffer from the overhang of potential fraud.

Your argument basically comes down to centralized systems being more efficient and mining being inefficient. That might be true in an ideal world without the possibility of fraud or abuse. It isn't true in the real world.

Emit 10-20% of the coins over a period of 1-2 months. Then, emit the remaining 80-90% over a long time frame. Are coins more concentrated in the hands of early adopters? Yes. This is a good thing! Reward those who were there at the start! Who cares what people are wary of, the majority of people are morons who cannot properly distinguish between something that is a scam, and something that isn't. Catering to them is of no relevance. The things that actually deliver results will succeed regardless of what the vast herd of sheep think.

luigi1111

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Combining posts...

Quote from: smooth on August 29, 2014, 05:18:17 PM

Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 05:06:22 PM

A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners , and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?

No, the difference is that this structure is compatible with a pump-and-dump scam. So buyers always have to be wary of it, which depresses the price and ultimately serves as a competitive disadvantage against cleanly launched coins.

Only systems that are structurally incompatible with fraud don't suffer from the overhang of potential fraud.

Basically the argument is that "bunch of coins mined over a few months to a year" = more participants than "bunch of coins mined in a few days", which should lead to better distribution as well as much better perception. It's only one piece of the distribution schedule, but it is largely responsible for public perception (and XMR can get negative perception as well for its defined curve, just that it didn't go way outside of what was defined like DRK did).

Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 29, 2014, 05:20:02 PM

Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Doesn't seem like such a high rate of emission when you consider that there are ~28000 Litecoins mined every day. If the higher price of LTC can be sustained, I see no reason why XMR cannot go much higher.

It's much much higher than LTC presently, but that's not really the point I guess. LTC isn't $100 after all. Tongue

Quote from: Febo on August 29, 2014, 05:20:59 PM

Is simple as this, if 50% of XMR would be minted in first month, few people would buy them and hold and price would go x10 or x100 in few months and not many people would got into coin at all, community would be weak. And some other coin would take XMR spot. As it is is perfect since will keep coin at low price for longer period of time + noone got coins super cheap. What you think is better is at quite some other coins, so i think is better you chose those.

This is kinda nonsense, as you are pretty apparently comparing to DRK (at 50% of current supply, which isn't even true anymore), but their community (of which I am a part as well) is quite big and active. They have the longest thread in the entire altcoin section. The other part of it is, absolutely some people got XMR at super cheap prices. I was one of them.

You are spot on about fast emission keeping price relatively low for early adopters/accumulators.

Febo

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Is simple as this, if 50% of XMR would be minted in first month, few people would buy them and hold and price would go x10 or x100 in few months and not many people would got into coin at all, community would be weak. And some other coin would take XMR spot. As it is is perfect since will keep coin at low price for longer period of time + noone got coins super cheap. What you think is better is at quite some other coins, so i think is better you chose those.

saddambitcoin

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Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Doesn't seem like such a high rate of emission when you consider that there are ~28000 Litecoins mined every day. If the higher price of LTC can be sustained, I see no reason why XMR cannot go much higher.

Brilliantrocket

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I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here! You've set it up so that everyone suffers. To be clear this is not trolling. If you look through my posts, you'll see that I've been very disappointed with how Darkcoin is coming along. I'm looking to diversify.

smooth

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Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 05:06:22 PM

A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners , and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?

No, the difference is that this structure is compatible with a pump-and-dump scam. So buyers always have to be wary of it, which depresses the price and ultimately serves as a competitive disadvantage against cleanly launched coins.

Only systems that are structurally incompatible with fraud don't suffer from the overhang of potential fraud.

Your argument basically comes down to centralized systems being more efficient and mining being inefficient. That might be true in an ideal world without the possibility of fraud or abuse. It isn't true in the real world.

luigi1111

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Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 05:10:41 PM

Quote from: Febo on August 29, 2014, 05:08:54 PM

Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day.

It is 20k new coins so people have something to buy. If there would be 2000, everyone would fight for them and there might be huge riots on the world. Developers thinked it all over to be perfect.

New investors buy from a pool of all available coins, not just newly minted ones. So it's actually better to have a supply of 5,000,000 and an emission of 1000 than it is to have a supply of 1,000,000 and an emission of 20,000. I really can't see any advantage to dumping 86% of your supply over 4 years, from the perspective of a few months into that timeline. Who is benefiting there? Early adopters, developers and new investors are all disadvantaged, it would seem to me.

I think the price "hurts" longer, which arguably benefits accumulators more.

Brilliantrocket

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Quote from: Febo on August 29, 2014, 05:08:54 PM

Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day.

It is 20k new coins so people have something to buy. If there would be 2000, everyone would fight for them and there might be huge riots on the world. Developers thinked it all over to be perfect.

New investors buy from a pool of all available coins, not just newly minted ones. So it's actually better to have a supply of 5,000,000 and an emission of 1000 than it is to have a supply of 1,000,000 and an emission of 20,000. I really can't see any advantage to dumping 86% of your supply over 4 years, from the perspective of a few months into that timeline. Who is benefiting there? Early adopters, developers and new investors are all disadvantaged, it would seem to me.

luigi1111

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Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 05:06:22 PM

A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners, and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?

This definition could vary a bunch. DRK was obviously VERY fast (but only about 10% of the longer term supply), XMR is just "fast" with 50% in two years. Its supply will certainly outpace DRK's sometime next year.

So you could argue XMR's distribution is faster, however DRK has to contend with major accusations that never cease from those fateful first 24 hours. I think the present price would be much higher if that hadn't occurred.

Febo

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Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day.

It is 20k new coins so people have something to buy. If there would be 2000, everyone would fight for them and there might be huge riots on the world. Developers thinked it all over to be perfect.

Brilliantrocket

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Activity: 826

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A very fast initial distribution, followed by a long, slow emission seems vastly superior from an investment standpoint. It just appears to be better for all involved. The developers can get a reasonable stake for a low cost, to justify their time investment, early adopters get rewarded nicely, and prospective investors can be confident that inflation won't dilute their investment. The only ones who suffer are miners , and considering that no matter what your emission, mining will generally just break even due to economics, what is really lost there?

smooth

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Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 05:01:07 PM

Quote from: Jungian on August 29, 2014, 04:59:21 PM

Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

You do know that the block reward is shrinking for every block though right?

Yes, but in the chart that Rpietila posted, even a year from now the emission was still insanely high. So basically, we're expected to wait 2+ years to see a decent return?

That's not how markets work. If people expect the coin to be $10 in two years then money will rapidly flow in to support the emission at something close to $10.

If you don't expect the coin go to up, ever, the don't buy it. Clearly.

luigi1111

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Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Definitely something to consider. XMR does have a rather rapid, smooth (get it?) distribution, so inflation is constantly and rapidly slowing down.

Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 05:01:07 PM

Quote from: Jungian on August 29, 2014, 04:59:21 PM

Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

You do know that the block reward is shrinking for every block though right?

Yes, but in the chart that Rpietila posted, even a year from now the emission was still insanely high.

So take the emission, imagine what you think daily influx could be, calculate expected price, and decide if it's attractive relative to current prices.

Brilliantrocket

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Quote from: Jungian on August 29, 2014, 04:59:21 PM

Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

You do know that the block reward is shrinking for every block though right?

Yes, but in the chart that Rpietila posted, even a year from now the emission was still insanely high. So basically, we're expected to wait 2+ years to see a decent return?

Jungian

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Quote from: Brilliantrocket on August 29, 2014, 04:57:23 PM

I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

You do know that the block reward is shrinking for every block though right?

luigi1111

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Quote from: smooth on August 29, 2014, 04:51:56 PM

Quote from: luigi1111 on August 29, 2014, 04:47:28 PM

Quote from: smooth on August 29, 2014, 04:10:41 PM

Quote from: luigi1111 on August 29, 2014, 04:09:05 PM

Quote from: iourzzz on August 29, 2014, 03:36:10 PM

Quote from: georgehosterguy on August 29, 2014, 01:34:07 PM

Quote from: iourzzz on August 29, 2014, 12:58:23 PM

Quote from: giveBTCpls on August 29, 2014, 12:28:49 PM

What are some ridiculously long term predictions for this coin? What price do you expect in 20 years time or so? I think in 2050, we'll see a legit FIAT crash from dollar and euro, with asia becoming the ruler fiat, and crypto growing strong on the sidelines. My only 2 long term bets are BTC and XMR thus far.

Possibly in 2070, 100-1000 XMR could be enough to buy a little island...

You know how many little islands there are for sale vs how many XMR will exist in 50 years? Cheesy

Wish so bad I was around the internet before stupid people could connect Roll Eyes

Good luck with your island there guy Kiss

At this moment with current XMR rate there are not so many islands for sale cheaper than 100K-1000K XMR. The growth of Earth population is slowing down and can stabilize may be around 10-12 billion by 2050 if no major disaster happens. But anyway the rate of the islands development is quite high so almost obvious that they are going to be much more expensive.

Widely adopted XMR is gonna be very expensive as well and so difficult to assume that it will rise 1000 or more times in just few years.

Bitcoin is not widely adopted and yet is 250x XMR. 1000x isn't hard at all to imagine given "wide adoption".

Given real "wide adoption" BTC has 100-1000x to go. If XMR achieves that "wide adoption" that is 25000-250000x by your numbers.

I agree with your conclusions, but I don't think we're using "my" numbers. I was trying to point out that a "mere" 1000x isn't hard to imagine. You provided the "wide adoption" numbers as far as I can tell Wink

(I somewhat implied 4x current BTC value would be the absolute baseline for such a thing, but am in agreement the real value would be much higher).

I just meant the number for BTC/XMR. That's obvious from the market prices though.

Of course, this is all "speculation"

Right, it's just market prices, thus my confusion.

As for speculation, I think we're in the right place! Tongue

Brilliantrocket

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I really wish Monero inflation wasn't so high. I'm thinking of investing, but it's hard to imagine any real price increases when there's 20,000 XMR being mined per day. At a arbitrarily selected value of $100, that's $2,000,000 per day, compared with only $288,000 for Darkcoin, the only thing I have besides Bitcoin. A real dilemma for me, as Monero seems to be the most legitimate CN coin.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2181. (Read 3313576 times)