U.N. estimates of global black market in 2012 were 2tln USD, like havocscope.
Most of that is large-ticket stuff. It requires deep liquidity. BTC is not an option due to tracability. Today, XMR is not an option due to poor liquidity. To achieve sufficient liquidity to do large ticket black market transactions will require a price in the 1000s.
Once the price is in the 1000s, the liquidity will also be large enough for multinational corporate to take an interest.
Relying on black market to raise the liquidity is dangerous. Much better to find a way to bring the liquidity up without the black market. However, it seems inevitable that dark web will use XMR as soon as usability is sufficient. That is a very small portion of global black market, and won't move the price past 100 on demand.
I find it difficult to see a price below 100 in 1 year. Sub-USD100 in 9/2015 is not going to happen, unless there is a shocking event, a risk event, of large proportions. To properly discount and make a current price on that future expected price you need to estimate the risk.
Estimating the risk is harder and more pressing than estimating the central tendency demand support.
It is because risk estimation plays such a large part in determining rational present value that I very very much appreciate the rigor of the development process being applied in the core software, and the ability of the team to maintain coherent vision, even as players move in and out. I think there is no more insider risk in XMR than there is in BTC right now.
The legal risk seems greater for BTC at present because of relative size focusing attention on BTC, but XMR will get all too much unwanted attention when it passes MAID into top-ten cap, during September. I am sure it is already on the radar of grassroots operatives. When it gets on the political radar, the big guns come out.
IIP has become a pressing need, for that reason. This fait needs to be accompli before the main becomes trop forte.