[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2191.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: nioc on August 23, 2014, 11:51:53 AM

On June 24 the block reward was 16 and today it is ~14.6 which is a 9% decrease in 2 months.

At what point will the decreasing emissions have a significant effect on price?

9% seems significant to me but I consider demand side paramount to any coin. Without demand it goes to zero regardless of emission.

sparky999

sr. member

Activity: 473

Merit: 250

If you can estimate the adoption rate then it would simply be the point in time at which adoption and emission curves intersect. Pretty sure Rpitila has all the numbers to do this if he hasn't done so already. I would ballpark it at around Dec-Feb.

nioc

legendary

Activity: 1624

Merit: 1008

On June 24 the block reward was 16 and today it is ~14.6 which is a 9% decrease in 2 months.

At what point will the decreasing emissions have a significant effect on price?

bobabouey2

sr. member

Activity: 248

Merit: 250

Excellent data, and because I like histograms:

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Code:

pricemin	pricemax	volume%	cumulative
850	899	2 %	100 %
800	849	0 %	98 %
750	799	2 %	98 %
700	749	1 %	96 %
650	699	0 %	95 %
600	649	5 %	95 %
550	599	5 %	90 %
500	549	8 %	85 %
450	499	7 %	77 %
400	449	22 %	70 %
350	399	16 %	48 %
300	349	13 %	32 %
250	299	11 %	19 %
200	249	3 %	8 %
150	199	0 %	5 %
100	149	3 %	5 %
50	99	1 %	2 %
0	49	1 %	1 %

This shows that 48% of the volume has been traded below 0.00400. The all-time-average is 0.00410. Days above 0.00450 are rather rare (30% in total) whereas above 0.00650 is only 5% in total. The most traded range seems to be 0.00250-0.00450.

I regard the current price as cheap, because 68% of the volume has been traded at a higher price.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Ultros, can you add the irc channels #monero • #monero-dev • #monero-otc to your post also? This is helpfull for people who have a problem and want to chat about it.

On topic: As I stated before, there is clearly great resistance @ 0.004, if we break that I think we will reach 0.0055-0.006 again. Support is @ 0.0033-0.0034 area. There is a probability that we move sideways for some time before breaking through 0.004.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

I hope to soon post here a chart or table showing the amounts of moneros traded at any given price level (0-50k, 50-100k, etc.). In my opinion, monero has during all its exchange history been a rangebound coin. The all-time-weighted-average is about 400k, and most of the trade has been conducted at a narrow range of 300-500k. When the range is definitely broken, there is no knowing what the next trading range would be.

Ultros

sr. member

Activity: 471

Merit: 250

monero.cc

Monero Economy • Monero Support • Monero Mining • Monero Dev

#monero • #monero-dev • #monero-otc

Old thread (now locked): https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monero-xmr-speculation-thread-622708

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Self-moderated thread for discussion of Monero trading and price speculation.

Off topic posts will be removed. Off topic includes any extensive discussion of other coins, promoting other coins, or posting of promotional materials from other coins.

Non-substantive comments such as Monero sucks, Monero is a scam, Monero is great, Monero to the moon, etc. are considered off topic. Every post and reply should add to the discussion. The preceding sentence forbids repetitive exchanges on the same topic without some topical context.

Hostile trolling (which includes but is not limited to use of "meme" pictures to attack or demean) especially by sock puppet accounts is not allowed.

When quoting posts, please remove any large charts or other images unless the quoted post is at least one page old. Please shrink (or remove) large images in replies in all cases.

When I am speaking as the moderator, and only then, I will write in red. Other messages using red text are not permitted.

People speculating on Monero may also be interested in the MoneroMarkets subreddit (unaffiliated)

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2191. (Read 3312335 times)