Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 3. (Read 3313576 times)

The Monero Moon newsletter is back!

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-62

Check it out!!!

^  Yeah, but I'm starting to think that price analysis and TA seems like it's useless for XMR now it this point of its existence.  There's almost no speculation going on with XMR and most of those who own it, really use it.  And the growth is slow but organic.  I think long term we're positioned better than BTC in terms of community, organic usage and real growth...  Not just those guys who park their fiat in a coin then dumps them and they'll do it all over again when another spot arises.

I'm not saying that I'm not doing it or it should be frowned upon.  I'm just talking about what I'm seeing specifically with XMR.  It's a totally different culture.

Thought I'd give my current opinion on XMR/BTC as has been a few months. After the rejection from the anticapted 200 WMA back in March, price has entered the no-trade zone, in between support and resistance.



Like most other altcoins, it looks like there will be a bit more downside before any upside, possibly next year. There is also a bearish cross of the 50 & 200 Week MAs incoming as circled around 0.0065 BTC, with the volume point of control just above at 0.007. A nice setup for a long position would likely be at the support level around 0.004 BTC towards the end of the year, for an initial target of 0.008 BTC (swing range trade).

Let's see what the curve is doing this time, cycle would be to go up after the bottom we have 

Indeed, there's a multi-year range that has developed now. It does look more bullish than bearish for the long-long-term, as the consolidation is clearly above 2015/2016 previous range. While I always look at BTC pairs, I do pay attention to USD pairs as well. In the case of Monero, the issue I have is the double top on dollar chart. While it's not particularly bearish to have such a resistance level, it raises the question of what the Bitcoin price of Monero would if there would be a triple top on the dollar chart (that I think is relatively likely eventually, as can now be considered strong resistance).

Baring this in mind, the issue I have is that a future triple top on the dollar chart could now easily be a re-test of the current range's resistance. Not so similar to the May 2021 high that was a re-test of the range's resistance level. In summary, I have no doubt that Monero will continue to appreciate in the long-term against the dollar, but against Bitcoin, it may well sit sideways for many more years to come. My most optimistic scenario would be that breaking out of the range leads to re-testing around 0.02 BTC. But then by doing so, there are around 2 years worth of buyers that could well be keen to get out...

It's more likely that 0xMR returns to 1usd for a 10x than Monero returning to its ATH.

^  And it shows that it's def a really good sign that no ASIC maker has figured out RandomX yet.    I'd be more worried if the hash rate suddenly goes up at a fast pace tbh.

As for the chart, I've been starting to look at XMR against BTC as the base currency more and more.  The chart just looks smoother than if paired against USD.

It's been ranging since 2020...  Watch out if it breaks out above .009 - .0092 resistance.

It's tracking price (i.e. almost perfectly flat) over the past year which makes sense given the constant tail reward. Before that the price was coming down into the crypto winter and tail reward hadn't been reached yet.

Likewise this thread has gone pretty quiet which is partially a function of the crypto scene moving out from bitcointalk and partially that it's not that interesting to speculate on a flat price.

I guess zooming out then it's also true that in 2018/2019 hash rate also declined then looked static, followed by the growth in 2020/2021, no doubt due to the price increase. So maybe it's not relevant.


Generally it's because it always increases, minus the odd dip. This is largely due to constantly finding cheaper electricity prices across the globe and increasingly affordable renewable energy. More recently also other industries such as hydro dams, as it can be cheaper to mine Bitcoin than to produce low quantity of electricity which isn't economically viable all year round. Flare gas based operations avoiding flaring by mining Bitcoin instead which saves a lot of money and scrutiny. Even main grids adopting Bitcoin mining, as it's cheaper to mine Bitcoin than to store excess electricity and always will be.

I realise Monero and Bitcoin mining are completely different markets, as one is based on cost of GPU/CPUs prominently, whereas the other is generally based on electricity costs and production savings.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/monero-hashrate.html#3y


To me it looks static last year. It declined in 2022. What is normal since also price declined in 2022.   Well at second look, I see price mainly declined in 2021. I guess during that year it was still hope Monero price will go up and more people mined with loss. Later they saw that is it for this cycle and gave up. Hash rate increased a lot in 2021. It is normal some of those newcomers dropped out.  


Why is BTC hash rate keep growing I have no ideas. When I googled their last new ASIC come out in march 2020.  Makes little sense that miners would need up to 3 years to update their miners.  But what do I know.

Out of curiosity, is anyone concerned by Monero's continued decline is hash rate since beginning of 2022? Not trying to FUD here, just curious of what people think about the following...

Not only has Bitcoin's continued it'd network growth, as per usual during bear markets, but so has Litecoin and Dogecoin which are the next biggest POW coins. I'm not sure if this is due to merge mining between LTC/DOGE, or whether XMR is significantly less profitable to mine due to the use of GPU/CPUs, but it seems to reflect Monero's price action, that being around the same price it was beginning of 2022.

This isn't to say LTC or DOGE are doing significantly better either, as altcoins are generally struggling right now against Bitcoin, nor that Monero remains vulnerable with it's current hash rate decline. It just seems strange that the network isn't growing similarly to others, with only the Top 3 POW coins gaining hash rate (ignoring ETC as it's increase was solely due to ETH merge).

I heard some bad thinks happened to our dear Dasher friends, so I had to come back to the forum to cheer them up.  No one made a 9th birthday post here. You guys are bad posters!

So somoen will not say I am so offtopic I also just read that Haveno is ready for testnet.

Eeh.  The answer is Bitcoin.  Sure there are bitcoin maxis sympathetic to Monero.  I am one of those after all.  But Bitcoin is doing exactly what the maxis want and expect.  The blocksize is limited.  The consensus rules are being followed.  The fee market is doing it's job, and testing the mettle of people who want to do Couterparty on chain.  Bitcoin is the premium value store chain.  And it will cost money to store value there.  And yet lightning will make it available to even people who cannot pay the fees or even run a node.

Monero will keep moneroing.  It will keep being appropriate to use for the things it is good at.  And I think more people start to realize it's good for something significant.

BTC has nothing to be afraid about when it comes to Monero.  The chains that should be afraid are the ones like BCH.  BCH cant scale any better than BTC and doesn't do anything better at all.  Monero can scale a little better (still sucks though) and offers something no other chain does.

Bah I ignore CT nowadays...  A lot of what the guys say there are just stuff that basically say:  'These are my bags, they're the best, you should buy them too'.  And some of them even make long threads now for more engagement.  :/  I unfollowed all of them except for a couple.  My follow list is made up of guys who are into MMA these days.  And it's funny cos I did it to avoid all the drama in CT, only to see that somewhat the same kind of drama also happens in MMA Twitter.  

And...  What's the most likely cryptocurrency BTC maxis would consider switching to if there isn't any solution to all the shenanigans going on?

Admittedly price looks good against fiat, it usually does, especially when Bitcoin is reversing back to the upside. But against Bitcoin itself? Not so much...



There is certainly room to the upside, followed by facing multi-year resistance based on volume traded and moving averages. It's a strange one as the 50 WMA as crossed bullish with the 200 WMA, but at the same time the 20 WMA is crossing bearish with the 50 WMA. The Weekly "golden cross" is certainly very lagging indicator, but more relevantly price recently collapsed below both these moving averages that crossed bullish.



Based on Daily chart, price remains in a clear-cut downtrend since the start of the year, as well as 2018 for that matter. It's currently testing resistance at the 50 Day MA, that saw price previously rejected last month, and otherwise will face stronger resistance at 0.0075 BTC. To me this isn't a trade or investment worth risking until it can break out of it's multi-year range to the upside, then we could see some serious upside.

It's ironic as I actually believe in the fundamentals of Monero quite a lot, but for whatever reason the price action isn't exactly reflecting this fundamental relevance. At least not in the past 4 years.

The main reason I am posting this now is I have noticed a LOT of anti-monero chatter particularly on twitter recently.  Almost so much that it seems odd.

Not much volume but we are in this little area where we have a directional decision to play out.

For some reason this seems bullish.  I mean he's no Proudhon, but.

Plus nothing is going to overcome the bitcoin explosion.  Hopefully this is a omen to it holding it's USD value during the blast...

MONERORDINALS!    REEEEEE

Prepare for a Saturday long Ramble...  it will be very Bitcoin centric, but will come around to Monero in the end...


Agree to a great extent.  And I think the price rise DOES have to do with SVB as well as the other (and coming) bank failures, but is ALSO a recovery from the bear market, as well as the natural progression of Bitcoin's path. I think we are currently  looking at yet another contender for a Bitcoin perfect storm.   I will add some fundamental analysis to your technical magnificence.  (And keep it at least a little on topic by the end, promise)

Time:  Bitcoin is 14+ years old.  Still survives.  Almost everyone with money has heard of it by now.  People WITHOUT money have TOTALLY got the message and are USING it.  The value prop is understood by a significant (probably still minority) portion of folks.

FTX (Crypto): The smarter folks can see what FTX was:  A crypto based super ponzi.  And some of them REALLY know what it was: shadow gvmt attack on BTC, money laundering ring in collusion with TPTB.  And people realize that Bitcoin is the one thing they DID NOT HOLD.  The real meat here is still fairly badly misunderstood, but it's a continuum of understanding that at LEAST outlines that Bitcoin is unique.  It's just the western 'man on the street' that does not know the difference.  Smart money sees it, and people like the Nigerians get it.  Folks are FINALLY starting to see what is wrong with the giant do-everything blockchain model.

Ordinals!  This one is actually funny to me.  It is badly misunderstood by most people... one side sees it as a great boon for Bitcoin that it can "do what ETH does!  Whee!" and the other side is wringing their hands over "misuse of chain space! OMG!".  And, well, there is also the folks who see it as a way to attack or embarrass Bitcoin.  But this is just another round of all the same misunderstandings that have driven value into BCASH (et al), ETH and so many other scams.  Of course Bitcoin can do what ETH does.  It will just do it the right way in the end.  Primarily OFF CHAIN with hashes written to the base layer.  And blockspace will all be used.  Every single bit of it.  Every single block, in the end.  And we will keep fighting about how to manage this part of Bitcoin's properties for decades past our lifetimes, I predict.  In the end what Ordinals is hinting at is the development that will go into the Bitcoin ecosystem that will pretty much rip the rug out of every other value prop alts have.  (Yes, maybe even Monero... but nuance there still, IMO)

The perfect geo-political storm:   We are seeing this unfold now.  And it is too much to really hit all the points here, but Wars, rumors of wars, pandemics, bio weapons, the fall of the US, the rise of China, the energy sector beginning to move from petro to minerals, the rise of Africa, the unveiling of the CIA state that is the west, the attempt at a socialist world order by the "elites", the decline of the $, CDBCs, and on and on.

The perfect macro storm:    Like the prior this is huge, and too much to write about... but we are seeing the effects of the FIAT meltdown begin to ripple out over the entire world economic stage.   This is where the Bitcoin value prop has a chance to really ignite demand.  If you have a lot of value you are most certainly moving it around now (if you had not already started) and for the first time in it's history Bitcoin is a real contender for a risky, but attractive store of value.

In fact, THAT is what I believe we are ABOUT to witness... Little teenage bitcoin is going to solidify it's place in the world as a legitimate and unique store of value.  What I believe this looks like (I am been saying this for years... so eventually I will either be right or just look crazier each time) is a breathtaking rise in the value as the scales finally get tipped by demand.  Most people think that has already happened.  I think it most definitely has not.  Eventually Bitcoin will be worth way too much for the sorts of wild swings we have seen in it's history so far as nearly impossible to occur again.  It would take too much value moving in and out to make any sense.  We are simply not there yet. The APPL market cap still is more than FOUR TIMES the market cap of Bitcoin.  Just APPL.  Eventually this will no longer be the case.  And I believe the market cap in BTC will be large enough for people to be able to do trades in it close to the entire value of it currently without moving the price all that much.  I have no idea what that value is... but it is likely several multiples of the market cap of APPL (and GOOG, and MSFT, and Gold, and... and...) .

It is not going to take very many people deciding to move a very SMALL amount of their value (which is currently, obviously at risk) into Bitcoin as a "crazy hedge" to tip these scales.  We have been building this powder keg for YEARS, and we are just about there now.

Monero?  So... as we watch the world financial system(s) undergo the greatest turmoil since ~1971 we are also starting to see these powerful pushes further and further away from privacy.  The central banks, who hold ALL THE POWER in the world, realize they have to RUSH to get their digital products out.  And even the common schmuck is beginning to realize we are headed into a world in which privacy is an archaic value of the past.  And Bitcoin, for better and worse, is a transparent ledger.  Monero is perfectly positioned to continue to be used by people who understand the need for privacy.  This need is only going to continue to grow.  And I believe we have a LOT of headlines in the future that look like"  "Nazi White Supremacist Group Taken Down by Bitcoin Chain Analysis" before Bitcoin ends up solving it's privacy problems (also off-chain), and the demand for Monero is only going to increase.

So... I agree with Dragonvslinux that the XMR/BTC pair is probably going to suffer in the short term (as it has) and probably also into Bitcoin's meteoric rise I keep predicting.  But I believe it will hold better than the majority of alts, and I also think it will continue to emerge as THE privacy centric base layer for some time to come before Bitcoin also, probably, eats it's lunch.  And i continue to believe an opaque base layer blockchain "coin" is perhaps the ONLY idea that has legs against the financial tsunami that Bitcoin is destined to be.  Yet, personally I think if what one wants the most is a gain in USD value on their crypto, then BTC is the obvious play for a while.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1574581/download