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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 786. (Read 3314343 times)

legendary
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Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
April 04, 2017, 01:00:10 PM
Can someone explain why/how Monero is/isn't scalable?

Monero is quite scalable.   For example having a dynamic block size allows it to adjust to the sorts of issues that BTC is facing with grace.

The one caveat is the large (kb) size of it's blocks.  But this is constantly being mitigated by Moore's Law.
newbie
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April 04, 2017, 12:43:44 PM
Can someone explain why/how Monero is/isn't scalable?
legendary
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Sine secretum non libertas
April 04, 2017, 12:38:37 PM


Unless the neckline is descending, H & S is indistinguishable from consolidation before an up-leg.
legendary
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Monero Core Team
April 04, 2017, 12:00:24 PM
Fees are just a side effect of the actual usage of a blockchain network. ...

Correct, which is why Monero got it right and has a dynamic fee system that will make fees cheaper as usage increases (inversely proportional), genius work ArticMine.

I'm still confused on why this does not open an attack vector with chain spam? Is there a critical mass point?

Sorry but I stopped reading progress when I couldn't get the info I needed to vet the RPC (at least the "Scientists" found that vector afterwards). Is there a quick synopsis of this discussion, I can never find irc logs.

maybe you should PM ArticMine and ask him directly.

He reads this thread so I'm sure he'll drop a quick synopsis.

I covered this type of attack in this thread back in January 2016.

ArticMine PMed me after I wrote that flaming post, and said he would reply after studying my posts. He has not yet replied. Does that mean I am correct and there is no solution for Monero. I think so.

It is fundamental. Afaics, you'd have to completely rewrite Moaneuro. Tongue

Rewrite Monero, is not necessary at all but some documentation on how the Cryptonote adaptive blocksize limits actually work is needed, especially given the formula in section 6.2.3 of the Cryptonote Whitepaper is wrong. https://cryptonote.org/whitepaper.pdf. My response will come in time.

I will start by examining the Cryptonote Penalty Function for oversize blocks. This is critical to understand any form of spam attack against a Cryptonote coin. From the Cryptonote whitepaper I cited above the penalty function is:

Penalty = BaseReward (BlkSize / MN - 1)2

The new reward is:

NewReward = BaseReward - Penalty

Where MN is the median of the blocksize over the last N blocks
BlkSize is the size of the current block
BaseReward is the reward as per the emission curve or where applicable the tail emission
NewReward is the actual reward paid to the miner
The Maximum allowed blocksize, BlkSize, is 2MN
The penalty is only applied when BlkSize > (1 + Bmin) MN Where 0 < Bmin < 1 In the Cryptonote whitepaper Bmin = 0.1.
 
The error in the Cryptonote Whitepaper was to set NewReward = Penalty

For simplicity I will define:
BlkSize = (1+B) MN
BaseReward = Rbase
Penalty (for a given B) = PB
NewReward (for a given B) = RB

The penalty for a given B becomes:
PB = RbaseB2
While the new reward for a given B becomes:
RB = Rbase(1 - B2)
The first derivative of PB with respect to B is
dPB / dB = 2RbaseB

In order to attack the coin by bloating the blocksize the attacker needs to cause at least over 50% of the miners to mine oversize blocks and for an expedient attack close to 100% or the miners to mine oversize blocks. This attack must be a maintained over a sustained period of time and more importantly must be maintained in order to keep the oversized blocks, since once the attack stops the blocks will fall back to their normal size.  There are essentially two options here:

1) A 51% attack. I am not going to pursue this for obvious reasons.

2) Induce the existing miners to mine oversize blocks. This is actually the more interesting case; however after cost analysis it becomes effectively a rental version of 1 above. Since the rate of change (first derivative) of PB is proportional to B the most effective option for the attacker is to run the attack with B = 1. The cost of the attack has as a lower bound Rbase but would be higher, and proportional to, Rbase  because miners will demand a substantial premium over the base reward to mine the spam blocks due to the increased risk of orphan blocks as the blocksize increases and competition from legitimate users whose cost per KB for transaction fees needed to compete with the attacker will fall as the blocksize increases. The impact on the coin is to stop new coins from being created while the attack is going on. These coins are replaced by the attacker having to buy coins on the open market in order to continue the attack. The impact of this is to further increase the costs to the attacker.

It at this point where we see the critical importance of a tail emission since if Rbase = 0 this attack has zero cost and the tragedy of the commons actually occurs. This is the critical difference between those Cryptonote coins that have a tail emission, and have solved the problem, such as Monero and those that do not, and will in a matter of time become vulnerable, such as Bytecoin.



The fee design in Monero with the tx fee per byte proportional to the block reward divided by the median blocksize is based upon this analysis. There is a critical consequence of this that is very relevant to price speculation. While it is relatively straight forward to retrofit coins with a fixed minimum tail emission such as Ethereum, Dogecoin and Friecoin with an adaptive blocksize similar to that in Monero. There is no solution that I am aware of for coins with a falling block reward such as Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum Classic and Dash. In my opinion the real genius here was adding the tail emission to Monero when it was forked from Bytecoin back in 2014. This was before my involvement with the Monero project.

Edit 1: The tail emissions in Monero, Ethereum, and Dogecoin are generated by inflation. In the case of Freicoin the tail emission is generated by demurrage. The Freicoin case is interesting since it can be a model for securing sidechains with a fixed maximum number of coins. If the sidechain is intended to be used for active transactions with a high velocity of money as opposed to long term wealth preservation then demurrage is a very viable option.

Edit 2: The tail emission in Monero of 0.6 XMR per block produces a maximum inflation rate of just under 1%. This is below the historical inflation rate of gold. So while Monero has a inflation rate to secure the coin it also has a "hardness" that is at least as strong as that of gold. After all gold is the "gold standard" when it comes to hard money. If we were to compare the tail emission in Monero to Bitcoin, the rough equivalent would be a tail emission in Bitcoin of approximately 3 XBT per block.

Edit 3: One can argue that the fee design in Monero is based upon an analysis that identifies a serious flaw in coins with a falling block reward such as Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum Classic and Dash, since the solution of a "fee market" that replaces the block reward has not been found. The eventual need for such a "fee market" is implicit in these coins' design  If, in order for the coin to scale, the total fees per block have to be proportional to the block reward then the message becomes that such a "fee market" is in fact incompatible with scaling.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
April 04, 2017, 11:04:58 AM
Fees are just a side effect of the actual usage of a blockchain network. ...

Correct, which is why Monero got it right and has a dynamic fee system that will make fees cheaper as usage increases (inversely proportional), genius work ArticMine.

I'm still confused on why this does not open an attack vector with chain spam? Is there a critical mass point?

Sorry but I stopped reading progress when I couldn't get the info I needed to vet the RPC (at least the "Scientists" found that vector afterwards). Is there a quick synopsis of this discussion, I can never find irc logs.

maybe you should PM ArticMine and ask him directly.

He reads this thread so I'm sure he'll drop a quick synopsis.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
April 04, 2017, 10:35:36 AM
hero member
Activity: 768
Merit: 505
April 04, 2017, 09:59:37 AM
Fees are just a side effect of the actual usage of a blockchain network. ...

Correct, which is why Monero got it right and has a dynamic fee system that will make fees cheaper as usage increases (inversely proportional), genius work ArticMine.

I'm still confused on why this does not open an attack vector with chain spam? Is there a critical mass point?

Sorry but I stopped reading progress when I couldn't get the info I needed to vet the RPC (at least the "Scientists" found that vector afterwards). Is there a quick synopsis of this discussion, I can never find irc logs.

maybe you should PM ArticMine and ask him directly.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
April 04, 2017, 07:31:17 AM
Fees are just a side effect of the actual usage of a blockchain network. ...

Correct, which is why Monero got it right and has a dynamic fee system that will make fees cheaper as usage increases (inversely proportional), genius work ArticMine.

I'm still confused on why this does not open an attack vector with chain spam? Is there a critical mass point?

Sorry but I stopped reading progress when I couldn't get the info I needed to vet the RPC (at least the "Scientists" found that vector afterwards). Is there a quick synopsis of this discussion, I can never find irc logs.
legendary
Activity: 2242
Merit: 3523
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
April 04, 2017, 05:54:27 AM
[...] But its good BU will lose. BU is just some Big Pools wanting to earn More Fees with Blocksize Increase. Their Main concern is earning fees, not the Blocksize problem.

Can we please have this BU/Core is good/bad discussion elsewhere?

Fees are just a side effect of the actual usage of a blockchain network. So miners their concern is that their mined blockchain is actually being used as much and by as many as possible, not the other way around.

Artificially limiting capacity to increase fees is very short sighted. I am sure miners are more clever than that, these are professional business nowadays. That is why the elastic non arbitrary blocksize of Monero is such a great and very valuable feature.
sr. member
Activity: 812
Merit: 251
I-CHAIN - The Revolution of Digital Advertising
April 04, 2017, 03:30:33 AM
BTC mempool size has crashed since February.  Smoothed xns/day is trending down.  It seems clear that the tight hold on BTC is increasing.  Come the fork, you may have a hard time finding anyone willing to spend BTC for a couple of weeks at least.

I am increasingly convinced that this will spike XMR.  How else can you buy fentanyl on alphabay?  Opiates are the quintessence of an inelastic demand driver - just ask Stringer Bell.  Methinks I should go all-in again.

You are convinced the fork is inevitable?   I think even the possibility is destabilising - but with BTC at this price, it seems to not be priced in, indicating IMO that it is not thought to be definite by the market.

I am not saying you're wrong, but I wonder how you feel it's a done deal it will happen.



Fork wont happen. BU needs 75%, which it will never get. On the other hand Segwit wont get 95% too. So UASF will happen. I dont know its good or Bad, But its good BU will lose. BU is just some Big Pools wanting to earn More Fees with Blocksize Increase. Their Main concern is earning fees, not the Blocksize problem.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
April 04, 2017, 01:51:57 AM
BTC mempool size has crashed since February.  Smoothed xns/day is trending down.  It seems clear that the tight hold on BTC is increasing.  Come the fork, you may have a hard time finding anyone willing to spend BTC for a couple of weeks at least.

I am increasingly convinced that this will spike XMR.  How else can you buy fentanyl on alphabay?  Opiates are the quintessence of an inelastic demand driver - just ask Stringer Bell.  Methinks I should go all-in again.

You are convinced the fork is inevitable?   I think even the possibility is destabilising - but with BTC at this price, it seems to not be priced in, indicating IMO that it is not thought to be definite by the market.

I am not saying you're wrong, but I wonder how you feel it's a done deal it will happen.

member
Activity: 61
Merit: 10
April 04, 2017, 01:19:56 AM
Top of pennant on xmr. Could be a nice reshort. I have  begun scaling more shorts with a sl at 0.0185, with green pl from my 193 short.

Depends on what you think of BTC.  It's the big factor in alt prices.  Normally XMR goes down on BTC rises, this time XMR has not lost $ value.

Good luck, but be careful, eh? Wink  I am not sure you will make on shorting XMR right now

Even if this hits 185 and i get sl, I still make bitcoin. But so far i reshorted at 185-183 and now it is 177 again. More green, more btc for me. I think there is still room for 1250 btc bull fakeout which could mean a realization of my low 0.016 and at least low 0.017 for xmr. Who knows, long term trend line has 0.012 xmr correction, and similar harsh drops for all alts maid to 10k fct to 20 eth could drop to $30. I am short on all of them. Only alt that I think has completed a deeper retrace is ripple from 7k to 2k.

Dont get me wrong. I am a monero bag holder, maid bag holder 7k etc but they have all had brilliant runs this year and as a result have room to correct a midst a btc bull run so it seems only logical to day trade these spot holdings to make more btc.

EDIT: 175 Yes we have broken down on xmr and broken up on btc. I expect the destruction of this pennant and sub 0.017 today.

You obviously are well informed enough to make your call.  Fair enough.  Personally I am happy XMR to be holding a $20 plus price.

BTC looks overpriced to me, but you bet on it if you're sure, eh?

In the end I covered completely all alt shorts because like you said btc seems to be having some trouble now in this short term. I then entered into some very small margin longs on monero maid and ltc. At this point it seems 50/50 where alts or btc go.
full member
Activity: 176
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April 03, 2017, 08:55:26 PM

...the Bitcoin Forkalypse (Forkacalypse?)


Hmm... fork-apocalypse, so maybe: "Forkapalypse"...?

Nice, LOL.  I think that'll catch on Cheesy


Yeah it doesn't exactly roll off the tongue, all throat really. But I like the double ka sounds... Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 608
Merit: 509
April 03, 2017, 08:28:46 PM

...the Bitcoin Forkalypse (Forkacalypse?)


Hmm... fork-apocalypse, so maybe: "Forkapalypse"...?

Nice, LOL.  I think that'll catch on Cheesy
full member
Activity: 176
Merit: 108
April 03, 2017, 07:47:55 PM
Speculation:. When BTC forks everyone will be holding  their coins tightly, and transaction traffic will approach nil.  Consequently the only way to actually buy anything on, e.g., alphabay will be using XMR.   XMR valuation may double, triple, quadruple overnight.

Any market (darknet or otherwise) paying attention will suspend/freeze all BTC activity until the Happening/Forkcalypse/Battle Of The Blockchain is resolved.

That could take days or weeks or months, producing a BTC liquidity crisis and ensuing mother of all alt pumps.

Since spill-over/backup capacity for BTC is the main use case of alts, it really wouldn't even be a pump but rather a fundamental repricing event to discover how best to reallocate capital in the crypto sector in light of a black swan visiting the One True Ledger.

Coins with preexisting, independent (sorry no ShapeShit) market infrastructure/support/use, such as Monero, should do best as their current relatively low prices represent a bottleneck that must be expanded in order for previous levels of commerce to start flowing through again.

Coinbase adding monero before the Bitcoin Forkalypse (Forkacalypse?)would be nice timing. If they do add monero, is the expectation for after the april 15 hard fork (to unclog monero's own mempool)? Well,wouldn't that be excellent timing for it all to come together in this order!
sr. member
Activity: 327
Merit: 252
April 03, 2017, 06:46:16 PM
Guys, as a lot of the Dash people seem to sincerely believe that coinbase is gonna add them first  but I think around here we-all pretty much believe (more likely based on what Armstrong, Lee, etc have actually *said* lately, not to mention their actual POLL results) that it's going to be MONERO next up on their platform as the #3 crypto coin gonna be made available to the mass market... it's occurred to me today that maybe something ELSE may be in the works rather than just us or them being disappointed when this news finally comes.

Seems to me that IF maybe coinbase doesn't want to be seen as 'playing favorites' or engaging in any action that could be construed as 'manipulating the markets' maybe if they're seriously gonna add either Dash or XMR next, it might be that they kinda have to ADD BOTH OF THEM TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME??

Picking one or the other right now, especially in light of recent events, has many pro/con aspects to either decision and seems to me there's no clear correct choice other than don't do either of them OR -- better -- just do 'em both at once!!

So, is that crazy thinking or does anyone else here see maybe this might be how it'd have to play out...?


Coinbase have said that their long-term goal is to add multiple coins so it's not necessarily a case of either/or.

...

They added ETH during the DAO and fork to ETC so what does that tell you about their credibility?

I'm not sure what one has to do with the other.

Coinbase is likely not for Crypto Currency purists. It is more aimed at speculators who don't care about maintaining their own wallets and who want an easy way to purchase currencies without the pressure and learning curve of trading platforms like Poloniex.

I'm not that interested in their credibility insofar as their decision with regard to ETH and the DAO. I am interested in the fact that they have six million accounts and what that might do for Monero's reputation and price.

Sorry I was responding to this

Quote
That said, given what Lee has said about Dash, I just can't imagine how Coinbase could offer it without undermining their credibility.

And apparently I did not quote the correct line so I've gone back and corrected that.

Ah, I see. Well I do think there's a difference in terms of how the two situations relate to credibility. In the case of the ETH/DAO debacle, it's not as if Coinbase played any part in it. It was going to happen with or without Coinbase's input. And to repeat myself, rightly or wrongly, most people (investors/speculators) either wanted it to happen or didn't care if it did. I'm not arguing that they were right not to care, rather that Coinbase's target audience aren't the type that would.

Clearly, adding Ethereum to Coinbase didn't impact Coinbase's reputation for the great majority of its customers. Adding Dash would. Or, rather, it should. You can't add a currency to your portfolio that's been ridiculed by your Director or Engineering without risking huge criticism. And rightly so.

On the other hand, you can add Monero. And wouldn't we all want that?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
April 03, 2017, 06:42:31 PM
Speculation:. When BTC forks everyone will be holding  their coins tightly, and transaction traffic will approach nil.  Consequently the only way to actually buy anything on, e.g., alphabay will be using XMR.   XMR valuation may double, triple, quadruple overnight.

Any market (darknet or otherwise) paying attention will suspend/freeze all BTC activity until the Happening/Forkcalypse/Battle Of The Blockchain is resolved.

That could take days or weeks or months, producing a BTC liquidity crisis and ensuing mother of all alt pumps.

Since spill-over/backup capacity for BTC is the main use case of alts, it really wouldn't even be a pump but rather a fundamental repricing event to discover how best to reallocate capital in the crypto sector in light of a black swan visiting the One True Ledger.

Coins with preexisting, independent (sorry no ShapeShit) market infrastructure/support/use, such as Monero, should do best as their current relatively low prices represent a bottleneck that must be expanded in order for previous levels of commerce to start flowing through again.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
April 03, 2017, 06:36:47 PM
BTC mempool size has crashed since February.  Smoothed xns/day is trending down.  It seems clear that the tight hold on BTC is increasing.  Come the fork, you may have a hard time finding anyone willing to spend BTC for a couple of weeks at least.

I am increasingly convinced that this will spike XMR.  How else can you buy fentanyl on alphabay?  Opiates are the quintessence of an inelastic demand driver - just ask Stringer Bell.  Methinks I should go all-in again.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
April 03, 2017, 06:27:34 PM
...

BTC lending rates dropped by half (<0.12%) so more margin longs?

One can borrow DASH at a lending rate of approximately one third of that for XBT. Cryptocurrency on margin is a an extremely high risk business and not for the faint of heart.

You got that right, I almost got caught shorting ripple and dash but luckily I only margin 25% of my margin account so was able to ride out both bear traps and still come out on the plus side.



In other news...

BTC at 1135 and Honeypony is rising like it doesn't give a shit.

Back in the mid .018s as I type with a good green candles showing (against BTC) and nudging up towards $21 in USD terms.

Something afoot? 

Keep an eye, this is not a move I expected with BTC so bullish.

BTC lending rates dropped by half (<0.12%) so more margin longs?

A big factor affecting rates is the possibility of a fork. If you have your coins lent out you won't get the second coin. Looking at BCU on bitfinex, it is down from 200 to 150, so a significant drop in the expected value of the second coin.


NEVER point this out to a degenerate gambler! Tongue

legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
April 03, 2017, 06:19:50 PM
Guys, as a lot of the Dash people seem to sincerely believe that coinbase is gonna add them first  but I think around here we-all pretty much believe (more likely based on what Armstrong, Lee, etc have actually *said* lately, not to mention their actual POLL results) that it's going to be MONERO next up on their platform as the #3 crypto coin gonna be made available to the mass market... it's occurred to me today that maybe something ELSE may be in the works rather than just us or them being disappointed when this news finally comes.

Seems to me that IF maybe coinbase doesn't want to be seen as 'playing favorites' or engaging in any action that could be construed as 'manipulating the markets' maybe if they're seriously gonna add either Dash or XMR next, it might be that they kinda have to ADD BOTH OF THEM TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME??

Picking one or the other right now, especially in light of recent events, has many pro/con aspects to either decision and seems to me there's no clear correct choice other than don't do either of them OR -- better -- just do 'em both at once!!

So, is that crazy thinking or does anyone else here see maybe this might be how it'd have to play out...?


Coinbase have said that their long-term goal is to add multiple coins so it's not necessarily a case of either/or.

...

They added ETH during the DAO and fork to ETC so what does that tell you about their credibility?

I'm not sure what one has to do with the other.

Coinbase is likely not for Crypto Currency purists. It is more aimed at speculators who don't care about maintaining their own wallets and who want an easy way to purchase currencies without the pressure and learning curve of trading platforms like Poloniex.

I'm not that interested in their credibility insofar as their decision with regard to ETH and the DAO. I am interested in the fact that they have six million accounts and what that might do for Monero's reputation and price.

Sorry I was responding to this

Quote
That said, given what Lee has said about Dash, I just can't imagine how Coinbase could offer it without undermining their credibility.

And apparently I did not quote the correct line so I've gone back and corrected that.
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