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Topic: Yet another analyst :) - page 130. (Read 269580 times)

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
December 26, 2012, 04:07:24 PM
This thread is more valuable than both of the following PAID subscriptions services:

Cypherdoc's at 2.5 BTC: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/financial-risk-analytics-subscription-service-74587

and

S3052's at up to 5 BTC: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-forecast-bitcoin-speculation-bitcoin-technical-analysis-up-or-down-1493

Don't pay for knowledge you can learn on your own or learn from others that aren't charging you for bullshit "guidance".  Grin Grin Grin

You can learn a lot from this guy (FOR FREE): http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=watch

and Waveaddict.  Cheesy

Your Best Friend,

Smoothie


that'd be an example of #2 and #5:  

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1420130
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
December 26, 2012, 03:31:54 PM
This thread is more valuable than both of the following PAID subscriptions services:

Cypherdoc's at 2.5 BTC: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/financial-risk-analytics-subscription-service-74587

and

S3052's at up to 5 BTC: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-forecast-bitcoin-speculation-bitcoin-technical-analysis-up-or-down-1493

Don't pay for knowledge you can learn on your own or learn from others that aren't charging you for bullshit "guidance".  Grin Grin Grin

You can learn a lot from this guy (FOR FREE): http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=watch

and Waveaddict.  Cheesy

Your Best Friend,

Smoothie
hero member
Activity: 490
Merit: 500
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 26, 2012, 01:49:36 PM
Sure move to 1540 top was obviously a bubble, which obviously needed to bump. We waited for a correction, we knew about correction. And pirate was a perfect trigger. But just a trigger, when market TIs screamed "Are you all nuts here?!". And market turned on this trigger. Pirate and all of us are just puppets Wink
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
December 26, 2012, 01:44:38 PM
That's the thing about news. It is perceived differently depending on market conditions. In a bear market, good news looks less good, but still slows the decline while bad news looks extra bad, accelerating it. In a bull market, good news looks great, accelerating the rise and bad news is "meh" and only slows it a little. I know, I know, before you all say it, the Pirate default was serious news and was at a top waiting to happen so it pushed it over the edge.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 26, 2012, 12:46:23 PM
About wordpress. Such news were appeared when market already made decision. Middle BB already had broken to upside. And middle BB curve already represented direction change.

Wordpress news just accelerated this move.

This is kinda mystery, but its true. News are just another sort of indicators confirming or declining figures drawn by market.

sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 26, 2012, 12:34:40 PM
We are all part of something big called SYSTEM. Every system participant has unconscious knowledge about whole system status and direction. And plays his unique role in futher system evalution. Or degradation. Both are just directions. The main point is move.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
December 26, 2012, 12:32:07 PM
From my modest expirence, TA precedes news.

WP news was fallowed by 3 rallies...

It would seem on this market their isn't much insider trading.

probably because it decentralized no one person know what everyone else is working on
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 26, 2012, 12:27:21 PM
From my modest expirence, TA precedes news.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
December 26, 2012, 12:21:59 PM
And some basic EW of this correction off the 1380 top.



I agree with this, But I'd bet the downward slide is going to take weeks if not months, and I guess its kinda risky to try an profit off this move, because a good piece of news could get the price rocketing a dollar again.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 26, 2012, 11:26:38 AM
And some basic EW of this correction off the 1380 top.

sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 26, 2012, 11:06:22 AM
My current view on situation Wink Not a real trend so far.

sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 24, 2012, 07:41:52 AM
And this is choice from my past pic. 1310 still holds though due to abnormal number of supports located at this point.

However I didn't changed my mind of nearest revisiting 1240. I said there both ways lead to down.

Especially current. Coz of my favourite shampoo.

sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 24, 2012, 07:38:19 AM
Daily IFT is in hard bear zone

sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 24, 2012, 07:33:18 AM
Daily middle BB broken to downside. Also BB width is so thin so it suggests a bold move outside BB borders to expand it.

legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 23, 2012, 03:15:16 AM
Another round of fight for 1310. And this daily picture not looks bullish

sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
December 22, 2012, 04:45:39 AM
I do the same. You saw my weekly picture.
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
December 22, 2012, 04:32:04 AM
He that hath an ear, let him hear what the Spirit saith unto the churches

He that hath two ears hears double speak.

doesn't Satan have 2 heads?

just to be fair, being an analyst is not easy work.  one can never be right all the time.  but if you can get the trends correct most of the time you're doing good.  lucif is just doing the same thing most analysts do; he hedges by providing lots of different alternative scenarios via lots of lines and squiggles.  nothing wrong with that.

da2ce7, a valued sub of mine, gave me some great advice early on back in April when i was struggling to find my "style".  he told me to just tell my subs what i think will happen and to ignore all the skeptics or trolls.  so what i do in my letter is just that; tell everyone exactly what i think is going to happen, analyze why according to my cycle work, and that's it.  i rarely if ever put up alternative scenarios or hedge my calls.  it makes it cleaner, more intellectually honest, and allows me to focus my mind on the highest probability; no hedging.  the bad side is that i am an intermediate term trader (hold for months even years) and given the markets inherent nature to swing both up and down weeks at a time, i can look very bad when its moving against my general outlook.  this is where money management comes in.  sure i could be wrong in my views but at least subs get an honest, straightforward analysis of what i think w/o any double speak.  and i've become very comfortable with that.  its not a style for every analyst or subscriber that's for sure.

just my two cents.

adding my few cents here:
I focus a lot on the big picture first to identify the overarching trend. once this is defined, then the shorter term forecasts fall into place relatively easily. I use dozens of different indicators, including some new ones and also look at many alternatives.
but then I try to keep the outlook very simple for subscribers and don't bother them with too many alternatives.
also, I established very specific trading ideas which enables me and subscribers to track the quality of the service and outlook. this keeps me honest.
I dont want to praise my accuracy and leave it up to subscribers to judge this. but based on the growing number of subscribers, it can't be that bad
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