Yet another analyst - page 5. | Bitcointalksearch.org

exstasie

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Weekly spinning top doji is inconclusive, indecisive. A similar doji in February off the upper BB obviously kicked off a huge crash, but that's certainly not guaranteed this time. I'm hoping this next weekly candle will give some indication.

The lower degree count from last week's post was invalidated, but it's still possible we are in the same higher degree Wave 5. I can't tell yet if the thrust to $12K+ was the entire Wave 5, or if it's sub-dividing and we have yet to see a local wave (iii). I'll share a new count when things become a bit more clear.

TL;DR it will go up or down. Tongue

Be prepared to buy a dip to $9K. Something like January 2016 (a dip to the 0.382-0.5) looks possible.

exstasie

legendary

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I think the last two weeks of consolidation was a local Wave 4. Here's a look at how the count has progressed so far:

Lower degree count:

That puts us in (iii) of v. Typically there should still be significant upside from here, $13K-$15K maybe. Be ready for a very harsh pullback afterwards though, like June-August 2016, January 2017, or March 2017.

JL0

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Quote from: exstasie on August 13, 2020, 04:22:14 AM

Quote from: JL0 on August 13, 2020, 04:02:04 AM

Hi exstasie,

do we need to fill that gap at $9600 ? Is it Important ? Masterluc said that $10K will hold if not his Idea is shit. What you think ?

When he says $10K, he probably means the $10K area.

In my eyes, a test of $10K and a wick to $9,600 could easily be part of the same move. It's impossible to pinpoint the exact bottom.

I'm not as obsessed with the gap fill theory as some people. We don't need to fill the gap. But it would be a typical target on a correction to the March-August rally. Nobody should be surprised to see it filled, although I don't think price will necessarily stay there for long. Like Masterluc, I expect the $10K area to hold. Any foray into the $9,000s will probably be strictly an intraday affair.

Thank you

exstasie

legendary

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Quote from: JL0 on August 13, 2020, 04:02:04 AM

Hi exstasie,

do we need to fill that gap at $9600 ? Is it Important ? Masterluc said that $10K will hold if not his Idea is shit. What you think ?

When he says $10K, he probably means the $10K area.

In my eyes, a test of $10K and a wick to $9,600 could easily be part of the same move. It's impossible to pinpoint the exact bottom.

I'm not as obsessed with the gap fill theory as some people. We don't need to fill the gap. But it would be a typical target on a correction to the March-August rally. Nobody should be surprised to see it filled, although I don't think price will necessarily stay there for long. Like Masterluc, I expect the $10K area to hold. Any foray into the $9,000s will probably be strictly an intraday affair.

JL0

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Bitcoin the Digital Gold

Hi exstasie,

do we need to fill that gap at $9600 ? Is it Important ? Masterluc said that $10K will hold if not his Idea is shit. What you think ?

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: STT on August 03, 2020, 06:09:45 PM

Calling for 27k based on last few months recovery is a stretch too far, he must have greater reasoning then that.

Once $20K breaks, I expect a parabolic run that goes much further than $27K myself.

I'm not sure about the timing aspect. I'm envisioning something a bit slower and steadier than him, like 2016. We'll see!

Quote from: STT on August 03, 2020, 06:09:45 PM

Theres resistance to pushing up so high, think of the total market capitalisation to BTC and all that potential supply onto the rest of the worlds markets, for crypto to be that large so soon this year does seem unlikely.

What does market cap have to do with it?

STT

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Calling for 27k based on last few months recovery is a stretch too far, he must have greater reasoning then that. Theres resistance to pushing up so high, think of the total market capitalisation to BTC and all that potential supply onto the rest of the worlds markets, for crypto to be that large so soon this year does seem unlikely. [Could be in a lockdown theres a pressure cooker effect but I think people have enough things to spend their money on tbh]
What propels prices up so high and why it can be so brief is a large amount of momentum that swings us into a movement upwards, there is always a gravity and selling that'll occur but if its overwhelmed then we get these grand prices. Theres a structure to the movement usually like a trebuchet or some release of energy and focus, its going to accumulate that pressure over more then a few months and I'd guess he has another chart for that over years.

exstasie

legendary

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Got our push above $12K, and in came the bears with a high volume selloff! Two possible internal counts:

That kind of selloff often indicates a higher degree top, represented by the yellow count. In EW terms, a typical Wave II retracement from here would call for the $7K-$8K area, although I'm honestly skeptical we'll go that deep.

The orange count says the whipsaw we just experienced was an expanding flat, with one more leg up into the $12,000s+ to come.

I thought these were worth sharing. Two diametrically opposing charts from two fellow EW analysts I respect a lot, Masterluc and xxxx123abcxxxx:

exstasie

legendary

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I think we're in a Wave 5. Hard to have a concrete target since BTC sometimes has really strong blow off tops. A typical Wave 5 would likely end inside that pivot resistance range:

Working internal count:

The 0.382 would be a typical retracement for Wave iv. A dip back to $10.5K looks like a buy. Whether or not that dip comes, I am still expecting a push into the $12K-$14K range.

exstasie

legendary

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There you have it, the first structural higher high since October 2019:

That's confirmation for me that the 2019-2020 bear market is over.

Short term, I would expect minimum $12K on this thrust. I still think that CME gap in the $9,600s will probably end up getting filled (or at least a test of the $10K area to confirm it as support) but perhaps not until after short squeezing higher first.

exstasie

legendary

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Quote from: exstasie on July 21, 2020, 06:38:38 PM

My gut is telling me we just experienced an important shakeout. It's too early to call since it's still all lower highs since $10.4K, but I think the stock market is set for a rally similar to late May. That obviously sets the stage for a rally in BTC, at least to the upper end of the range.

I'm still unexcited until $10.5K is actually broken. We've been waiting 2.5 months for that to happen.

Boom, important shakeout indeed! There's a spike through $10K on good volume:

I would remain cautious given that it's the weekend and that futures are closed. Wouldn't be surprised to see the market come back and fill that gap (futures closed at $9,615 on Friday).

But overall, bullish technicals are bullish. Not much else to say until bulls make it official and hold above $10.5K.

exstasie

legendary

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Quote from: Tzupy on July 21, 2020, 09:44:36 AM

Daily PSAR has flipped to bullish, and daily MACD looks about to cross into positive soon.

Yes, the technicals look bullish.

Stocks pushed new local highs today, rejecting the possibility of a double top in the S&P 500. BTC followed like the sheep that it is. The daily BTCUSD candle is printing a clear range expansion above the previous 1.5 week range.

My gut is telling me we just experienced an important shakeout. It's too early to call since it's still all lower highs since $10.4K, but I think the stock market is set for a rally similar to late May. That obviously sets the stage for a rally in BTC, at least to the upper end of the range.

I'm still unexcited until $10.5K is actually broken. We've been waiting 2.5 months for that to happen.

Tzupy

legendary

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Daily PSAR has flipped to bullish, and daily MACD looks about to cross into positive soon.

exstasie

legendary

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on July 16, 2020, 10:37:10 AM

I've just read that

Quote from: https://twitter.com/BTC_JackSparrow/status/1283770267324559360

$BTC OV loaded back up to levels not seen since March 16

and that this means a big move (in either direction) is imminent. Is this a good indicator?

I prefer to look at open interest. Open value = open interest calculated in satoshis.

The chart is sort of cherry picked since if you look to the left, OI or OV were much higher prior to the March crash. Being at the same levels as late March isn't particularly meaningful to me.

Quote from: NeuroticFish on July 16, 2020, 10:37:10 AM

What direction do you expect (based on other indicators)?

I'm still neutral. No point having a bias when we're in such a tight, stubborn range. The breakout, when it comes, will be very powerful and should provide a solid trend to trade.

NeuroticFish

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I've just read that

Quote from: https://twitter.com/BTC_JackSparrow/status/1283770267324559360

$BTC OV loaded back up to levels not seen since March 16

and that this means a big move (in either direction) is imminent. Is this a good indicator? What direction do you expect (based on other indicators)?

exstasie

legendary

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Merit: 1521

Quote from: exstasie on June 28, 2020, 03:20:32 AM

The good news: No closes below the lower BB, no squeeze triggered. We are also still well above the $8,630 pivot which as I've said before is a very important structural level. This dip also occurred while the stock market and futures were closed, which may explain the lack of follow through. If stocks open upwards this week, BTC will likely follow as usual.

More of the same. Stocks up, BTC up. And the game of ping pong continues.....

Looking at the daily SPX chart, the market is close to printing a three white soldiers pattern. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_white_soldiers.asp

After that reaction to last week's selloff attempt, I wouldn't be surprised at new local highs in the stock market over the next couple weeks. If so I think BTC will grind upwards alongside it but there's a good chance BTC will also stay stuck within its 2-month range.

exstasie

legendary

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The chart looks a bit worrisome for bulls. Barely managing to stay inside the daily Bollinger Bands and now clearly trending below the 50-day MA:

Grinding the lower band like that is an ugly look. I was hoping for a more robust bounce after undercutting the lows like that. You can see a very similar move in the opposite direction on April 23-25th, where price wicked above the upper band for a few days before finally exploding upwards.

The good news: No closes below the lower BB, no squeeze triggered. We are also still well above the $8,630 pivot which as I've said before is a very important structural level. This dip also occurred while the stock market and futures were closed, which may explain the lack of follow through. If stocks open upwards this week, BTC will likely follow as usual.

buwaytress

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Quote from: exstasie on June 17, 2020, 07:13:16 PM

Quote from: buwaytress on June 16, 2020, 07:26:22 AM

@exstasie oh there's plenty more where that Fed stash came from too, and they can keep this up all the way til November elections too, mind you, and I'm still certain we'll see more stimulus-like bills being passed, if not within that period, even next year when the economic contractions will really be felt.

Buying corporate debt though? Unprecedented. That's the crazy thing about this crisis: you never know if the Fed is willing to keep upping the ante. At this rate they'll be buying stocks directly by year end!

The stock market is no better than shitcoins now. It just pumps and dumps based on Fed news. The money printer meme even feels like it was modeled after the Tether printer meme. Tongue

They've managed to just exceed every single expectation we've had of them. Promising unlimited printing, corporate bonds cause ETFs just aren't sexy enough, putting cash in people's hands (and I do support some aspects of UBI but really when you see a records broken in retail spending and casinos then you know that's really not well-spent stimulus), no concerns at all for their incredible balance sheet which isn't done fattening etc. Like you said, nothing will surprise us anymore.

Wonder what's in store for today's speech!

exstasie

legendary

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Quote from: buwaytress on June 16, 2020, 07:26:22 AM

@exstasie oh there's plenty more where that Fed stash came from too, and they can keep this up all the way til November elections too, mind you, and I'm still certain we'll see more stimulus-like bills being passed, if not within that period, even next year when the economic contractions will really be felt.

Buying corporate debt though? Unprecedented. That's the crazy thing about this crisis: you never know if the Fed is willing to keep upping the ante. At this rate they'll be buying stocks directly by year end!

The stock market is no better than shitcoins now. It just pumps and dumps based on Fed news. The money printer meme even feels like it was modeled after the Tether printer meme. Tongue

buwaytress

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@exstasie oh there's plenty more where that Fed stash came from too, and they can keep this up all the way til November elections too, mind you, and I'm still certain we'll see more stimulus-like bills being passed, if not within that period, even next year when the economic contractions will really be felt.

Central bank where I am just put out its most optimistic prediction of a 5-year wipeout of growth, with this year's repercussions to dwarf the 2009 period. A middleground prediction sees 15% immediate drop when housing bubble bursts. Worst-case scenario sees 30% killrate on businesses... not sure if Fed will put out such dire numbers, or if they will allow it. What I'm even more unsure of is how all that will affect Bitcoin.

Topic: Yet another analyst - page 5. (Read 10476 times)