Topic: Yet another analyst - page 7. (Read 10498 times)

Surely something really BIG could negatively affect all markets, and likely would create ongoing potential to distinguish shitcoins from bitcoin - at the same time, there could be some weird world that evolves in which physical assets become overly undervalued compared with digital assets - which contributes to likely undue pumpening of shitcoin projects that would not otherwise deserve such support that comes from a lack of confidence in placing value into some physical assets.  Perhaps, I am not placing high odds on such a scenario, but still consider that recently we have been witnessing some somewhat unprecedented devolving values in he physical world including negative oil, of course virus related devaluations and realizations of expenses in the physical world, severe crackdowns in hongkong that may or may not play out too well and then if riots continue to be contagious in USA cities, authorities might end up realizing that their various technologies can sometimes be kind of helpless in attacking people from within... of course, there might be some folks who want to play hardball, and those actions have real costs, and can cut either way in terms of whether they are able to quel the state of real world inequalities (real or not) that cause a decently large segment of the population to conclude that they have nothing to lose.



I have not really been playing around too much with P2P in the last year or so after Localbitcoins really dried up in the USA, and I have not searched for other possible P2P avenues, but surely, I recall towards the peak of the 2017 bubble, almost all local bitcoin traders disappeared, even from selling BTC, and I stuck it out for a while by continually raising my prices and even limiting the quantity of transactions that I would do based on so much demand, but after a while, I just had to stop any transactions because I started to feel that my physical safety was becoming more at risk.  People were getting increasingly crazy in October/November, and by the time December, January, February came, I just could not tolerate it, but I think I resumed sometime after February or so...  probably I had a month and a half hiatus in the middle of it, and of course, the jamming of some of the transactions processing between about early December 2017 and nearly the end of January 2018 contributed to additional anxieties, too.



Sure, I might be talking about a bit of a USA phenomena, and I had already decently built up my credit by the 90s when I started to take advantage and play around with this stuff.  I would imagine some of that free credit did not exist as much in other places, so it might be a bit unfair for me to mention it, except that I was trying to point out some of the irony of a lot of the freeflowing credit that I was able to find for many years, and then all of a sudden when money is being printed like it is going out of style, then some of the credit avenues dry up.. and just seems like more of a ploy, including the shenanigans that banks play, even with all the free money that they have at their disposal.  They had engaged in similar behaviors in their receipt of free money in 2008, too... those corrupt self-dealing fucks.


Yes.. early 2000s were pretty prolific with credit card promotions, and I don't know what I am thinking regarding any bank promotions because they want to entice you in, but then they also are going to want to charge you for maintaining an account... so I am not sure how that is going to play out, and surely bitcoin should give them some competition in that direction, but I suspect banks will not be forced to compete with bitcoin until after they have played quite a few games with their account holders. .maybe even employing surprise bail-ins too.

My tentative conclusion has continued to be that there is likely to be another altcoin season, but still a bit of an amorphous projection regarding both possible changes in which ones might be the BIGGER pumped-ones, and including speculating on possible changed characteristics with the ongoing smoke and mirror dynamics of conjectured and projected ethereum 2.0 transitions.. but sure, dumb money wants any kind of excuse that they can for pumpening of various shit projects once bitcoin starts to pump (presuming that btc pumpening will happen at some point in the near future, likely no later than 18 months from now).

@JayJuanGee: Oh I'm definitely not against TA, even if I don't necessarily use it myself (or at all, really). I enjoy it a lot though, if it's well thought-out and not overly egoistic (it can also be fun when the charter's got a bit of character). But like you, I do get equally annoyed by analysts who don't put Bitcoin in its contextual nuances as an emerging asset class -- but especially more by shitcoin analysts who pretend their alt has some semblance of actual market activity.

I don't think black swan events of this extent (for me now this is the great depression rather than the covid) will affect Bitcoin long-term too, perhaps delay some of the TA outcomes, but I think the very unlikely doomsday scenarios would certainly invalidate or at least suspend all outcomes for years -- some emerging markets might never even resurface.

Re liquidity crises -- I do get a lot more failed orders on P2P in higher periods of volatility (when selling) and the traders I trust and who will fulfil all commitments despite price movement also tend to stay away or switch off trades during these periods. It's not the same thing I know, but at least for my P2P experience, I am affected by liquidity as soon as price starts to swing. It's not all bad, though, I can easily switch over to direct exchange but it does become an annoyance especially if combined with network congestion (which thankfully wasn't a problem during March's Black Thursday).

I've not seen 0% interest rate promotions no. Where I come from, it's usually a limited offer on larger products. Like a 1st year 0% on housing loan, or 0% interest student loans IF you get very good grades AND agree to contractual employment. I did enjoy a period in the early 2000s of credit card cashbacks though (always transferring out the debt/loan from a credit card to another bank and enjoying a 5% cashback/rebate they give you for switching). Cycled through over 10 banks and got myself a nice sum of "free money". I don't know if you can still do it today. In the UK now, they're giving you 100 GBP or thereabouts for new savings accounts. Think we'll be seeing more of this with neobanks coming up.

@exstasie: I spent some time in 2018 shifting a bit of bitcoin to alts steadily, for some misguided reasons caused by seeing just how high some of these coins went, and believing, wrongly, that getting them at 30% of their ATH was "buying the dip". I'm not completely unhappy, since some of these alts are anyway good projects but yeah, the only new shitcoins I get now are if people pay me in them, otherwise, I'm just fine getting Bitcoin. I'm actually also very confident once BTC ATHs, we'll see alts do much better, but it won't be that 2017 altseason anymore.

I think BTC dominance (ticker BTC.D on Tradingview) provides a good snapshot of the overall altcoin market. I also think when looking for major bullish trend reversals in the general BTC/ALT market that large caps like Ethereum and Cardano tend to lead before riskier small caps take off.

You're correct that it's difficult to generalize too much. Sometimes you're holding several bags that refuse to move while the rest of the market seems to be flying. That's altcoin life.

Two generalizations I'm fairly confident about:

• In a BTC bull market like 2017, basically every altcoin still listed on prominent exchanges will eventually pump.
• In the context of said bull market: BTCUSD sideways = very bullish for ALT/BTC.

I am not 100% against TA, and I agree with your overall assertion, buwaytress, that there may be times in which TA has more importance than during other times, and there still are likely to be differences of opinions, no matter what how much weight to give to TA versus some other factors, so in that regard, a lot of these matters will get sorted out through the markets with the individual actors coming to varying evaluations (whether present value or future value).

Many times, I get worked up by TA advocates who seems to be attempting to apply some traditional TA tools to bitcoin as if it either were a mature asset and/or just failing and refusing to account for some of the fundamental unique aspects of bitcoin in terms of its paradigm shifting position (as a new emerging asset class), so sure there could be some loose ways to attempt to leave additional margin of error in TA in order to account for the unique aspect of bitcoin as a paradigm shifting asset class but also taking account the other currently credible BTC price prediction models can also temper TA to some extent (and those currently credible BTC price prediction models would be 1) stock to flow 2) four year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and network effects principles). 



So, sure, additionally, we have some other unique and current macro-circumstances (such as virus and money printing sloppiness) that we should not be ignoring that could undermine TA and also just cause both short-term liquidity issues like exstasie keeps mentioning or could end up causing some of the BTC price prediction models to have to get shifted on their axis.  I doubt that some black swan events (or whatever we might want to call them) would necessarily invalidate the various currently valid BTC price prediction models, but surely I believe that none of the prudent ones of us should be approaching these kinds of matters by overly relying upon any mathematical models whether TA or the longer term BTC price prediction models that might not be able to capture some of the known unknowns and of course even worse at capturing the unknown unknowns.



These days, I rarely have personal liquidity crises on the bi-weekly or monthly, unless for some reason dramatic price movements happen at the same time, and surely, we witnessed that kind of a dramatic event on March 12 with the movement of several asset classes (downward at the same time), but since that market movement ended up playing out more as a short term event, some of us, including yours truly did not really have to change too much of our overall approach in order to NOT feel too negatively affected by such a dramatic short term negative price movement situation.

In November 2018 (remember the BTC price drop from $6k to $3k), my liquidity played out a bit worse than the March 12 event, so I did end up having to cash out a little bit of BTC that was at a time that was not of my own choosing, and sometimes it still can be quite unclear regarding if events like that could be played better (by me), on an individual basis (and of course, we all have our own individual differences that might cause us to maybe gamble a bit more or less in one direction or another).

Currently, I do have some changes in my cash flow that partly comes from some of the changes in revolving debt that is being offered to me by traditional financial institutions.. you know those various seemingly ongoing 0% promotions? 

I have been using those 0% promotions in various kinds of revolving debt ways for about 20 years.... and a lot of times receive either fee money or very close to free money...  funny that, no?... and there have been times in which I have been forced to bring my own use of revolving credit back down to zero or close to zero balances in order to avoid excessive fees and penalties, and that tends to be part of the attempted trap that those kinds of 0% credit promotions hope that the persons using those credit lines are going to mess up their cashflow or make some mistakes that thereafter allow the financial institutions to charge penalties and exorbitant (perhaps usury?) interest rates.

Anyhow, I find it interesting that a lot of the 0% interest rate promotions have dried up in recent times, in spite of all the fucking money that is printed recently and given to banks for free and even their increased ability to loan out money that they do not have in their banks (in recent months, they have been given increased permission to just loan out money they do not have).. those fucks.. but traditional financial institutions have still figure out ways to remove promotional 0% interest rate programs even though they are getting money for free they are trying to charge outrageous rates or just to make credit revolving more difficult for regular peeps... .. and so in the coming couple of months, I have some of those revolving credit lines that are seemingly much better for me to pay back than to continue to circulate or renew, so I will quite likely have to pull some money out of my bitcoin funds in order to NOT receive penalties or excessive fees... so sure, I prefer to pay low fees and to save on financial costs when I can in order to keep myself mostly in control of my various assets rather than having to kowtow to the unilaterally imposed conditions of financial institutions trying to trap me into paying their exorbitant (bordering on usury) fees...

For me, it is nice to have options, but sometimes, there still can be some juggling of finances that are forced, and so my personal finances have to be able to handle such changed circumstances, otherwise I have not adequately prepared for a variety of extreme circumstances that end up playing out in reality (rather than the various scenarios that had been planned to have been more likely).

Surely, any BTC trader that adds various alts into his/her trading practices is raising an additional level of complexity that seems to be going beyond the parameters that exstasie seems to be attempting to address in this thread, and then if you mention one alt coin or another, then where are you going to stop exactly with the amount of variance?

I am NOT suggesting that there might not be a considerable number of potential profitable avenues in dealing with shitcoins, but surely becomes a lot more difficult to follow when just referring to some of them (the shitcoins, that is) generally rather than specifically.

By next week, most of Europe will have lifted lockdown or resumed public services to full capacity -- and I'm sure by June there will be resumption of all things paused. I'm thinking especially US-China, and then people fully come to terms with unemployment and industry contraction. Then yeah, that second wave of economic turmoil might begin shifting into gear. Might see the trolling stop.


I'm getting less and less confident in TA at the moment, we're in no man's land in terms of economy. And we're yet to feel the full repercussions of the shit coming towards the fan. When it does, and sprays us all, that's when I think the market will stop trolling and begin moving proper. I suspect we throw TA out the window in this case.


Well, I sold mine on Friday -- typical fortnightly/monthly sale to pay bills -- and I actually waited from Monday. I keep telling myself not to time when I have to do it anyway, but yeah I was half hoping for that Friday volatility everyone was saying would happen after CME expiries.

I fell for the bull trap to be honest. Not exactly by selling any Bitcoin, but converting a little bit of it into some of my strong alts, which of course in BTC value have fallen now against BTC.

I would have done it anyway just to rebalance my portfolio but the futures friday news made me shift earlier:)

Yep, that sounds about right. The weekly and monthly charts are still quite bullish. On the other hand, bulls keep failing at key resistance on the daily, plus there is an incredible amount of uncertainty in the global markets. Stock markets and BTC are both hovering below major technical resistances that could end up serving as longer term bearish inflection points.


That sounds fair enough. The market is very trollish at the moment. I don't like any leveraged positions until we're outside of that $8,100-$10.5K range. Too much risk.

So, for you, odds are slightly in favor of bulls.  Perhaps 60/40 - ish?   Hahahaha

Maybe a week or longer ago, I said that I am not getting too excited until we either break below $7,800 or above $10,200, and I believe that you have stated some similar numbers, and sure if we start to move more towards one end of the range rather than the other end, then we might start to consider that the odds of breaking out in the same direction becomes a bit greater....

I understand that I should not be putting words in your mouth because your analysis does attempt to be quite a bit more nuanced than my own, but still I am not even sure whether to get excited at all in terms of maybe breaking out in one direction or another because surely even though there has been a lot of "ranging" in the upper end of my even broader range of $7,800 to $10,200, I am still not quite able to muster up much confidence beyond maybe 53/47 in favor of up, but even that feels a bit too comital and optimistic... from my less analytically attempting approach.

Still ranging. As anticipated, the undercut to the $8,600s was a bear trap:



Now the ball is in the bulls' court. The daily upper band, the current R1 pivot, the May monthly pivot high, and soon that failed trend line are all clustered at $10K. That's the resistance to break. Breaking above should send a lot bears into panic mode.

The daily bands are tightening. A few more days of ranging and the next breakout could be very explosive. I'm still feeling pretty neutral about the big picture. Not writing off the bears quite yet.

Bears tried to undercut the lows. Low volume, no momentum, sprung right back into the range:



This has the feel of a bear trap. If bulls retake $9,100 and especially the $9,300 daily pivot, it starts to look pretty bullish again. I would stress however that the $8K and $10.5K range still applies. Everything in between is liable to be a troll.

Just visualizing some key levels as we wait for the market to decide direction:



Resistance to the upside using Bitfinex price levels:

• May 7th daily pivot: $10,045
• Daily upper Bollinger Band: $10,088
• February yearly pivot: $10,500

Downside support:

• May 15th daily pivot: $9,130
• Daily lower Bollinger Band: $8,371
• May 10th weekly pivot: $8,100
• 50-day MA: $7,982 and rising

The yearly pivot ($10,500) and the 50-day MA ($8K) are still our absolute lines in the sand. As we can see on the chart, a break below the 50-day MA is very likely to confirm a mid-term downtrend.

Possible Adam & Eve double top forming on the daily chart: http://thepatternsite.com/aedt.html

I'm not doubting the power of Bitcoin. The higher time frame momentum is way too strong to risk shorting here. At the same time, this is a bullish setup I have often seen fail. After all, we are below long term historical resistance, not above it.

I try to stay away from predictions at times like this, when there is potential for a strong breakout in either direction. I'm more interested in reacting to the breakout and catching the bulk of the subsequent trend.

A break above $10.5K will be meaningful. So will new weekly lows. Bulls really don't want to see sub-$8K.

Aren't you saying that anyone who is serious about bitcoin, should be preparing for either price direction, and not overly preparing for one direction instead of the other.

On the other hand, maybe one of the things that irritates me about down betters is that anyone who is investing into bitcoin and somewhat understanding its fundamentals, should already be attempting to stack a bit more in terms of their bet to the upside rather than betting to the downside; otherwise why invest in bitcoin?

In the end, if any one who wants to build his/her BTC stack is attempting to build it by selling and hoping to buy back lower, then that just seems like a strange ass approach to the whole matter, but hey, to each his own.  Do as you please, and maybe you will get lucky, perhaps?  Seen a lot of people get reckt waiting for lower prices when they should instead be getting busy towards some kind of more simple version of just steadily stacking.

However we should not also doubt the power of bitcoin neither, sure there are many times when we all imagined price would go up and it didn't and dropped inside and I agree that we can't really got carried by any hype since hype itself doesn't really make the price go up, if you are hyping something you should also put the money in there as well. One thing for sure is the simple fact that even if bitcoin "could" drop, it also could increase at any time as well.

There are many days when nobody expected bitcoin to do anything but it went up 20%+ without any single sign, and that is the kind of thing it could do even right now. Which means yes be careful and know that it could drop very easily, however there is a chance it could skyrocket as well, so be wary about what you are doing in any direction at all times.

Bitcoin price movements can surely test the patience of any HODLer/accumulator, and of course the traders are trying to take advantage of as much of the volatility as they can, and frequently we will find BTC defying the expectations of the squiggly lines on the charts.

Even thinking back to April-June 2019, the BTC price movement from $4,200 to $13,880 caused a lot of HODLers to speculate that BTC was on its way up, and surely in retrospect there can be all kinds of speculation regarding why the continued BTC upwards movement did not happen, why the movement was ahead of its time, or why we are in a purported bear market currently, and whether or NOT any of us buys some of those analytical angles in terms of describing BTC price history (that we can all see in front of us), it is even more difficult to describe while we are in it.  

So, sometimes even the most lame of BTC price predictors can proclaim in retrospect that a 3.5x BTC price appreciation in about 3 months is overheated; however, before such price movement happened, there probably would have been close to zero chart-a-lists who might have anticipated such outrageous BTC price movement, and probably even some traders have learned from experience to prepare for such outrageous scenarios which disproportionately benefits HODLers who did not sell too much too soon and did not end up betting against the corn while in the midst of that movement.  Surely once it reached its top, then it would have become profitable to bet against bitcoin at that point, and could have paid off handsomely in the past almost year (even though my personal strategy does not involve any of the betting against corn, tactics).    

My personal investment system strives NOT to really call short term BTC price directions, but to both attempt to profit from the volatility, let the price come to me, and to anticipate that in the longer term the BTC price is going to continue to be higher.. including that so far in BTC's history, the BTC price has always been higher 4 years after any earlier price point, and there is likely going to be some time in the future in which that framing of BTC price dynamics is NOT going to be true (including wondering whether December 2021 is going to deliver BTC prices that are higher than $19,666 or not?  still to be determined).

Anyhow, so far, BTC price dynamics have sufficiently trended up in order to ensure that so long as at least any BTC accumulator/HODLer has had at least a 4 year time horizon, even if such person has bought at the top of any such BTC price movement, the price is likely to be higher 4 years later.. even while in the middle of that 4 year period, there may be several times in which the BTC buyer/hodler had wished to have had saved a bit more fiat to have been able to buy more BTC at lower prices in the up and down cyclings.

So, for example, if a BTC accumulating person had $2,000 to invest in bitcoin, that person might be a bit upset for a while if s/he had bought .11111BTC at $18k in December 2017, when the same amount of cash could have been used to buy .5 BTC at $4k in December 2018 (1 year later) or even in March 2020 (almost 2.5 years later).

Personally, even though I keep track of my input costs into BTC, when I had been in my most intensive BTC accumulation stages in 2014 and 2015, I had just continued to accumulate BTC on a regular basis and tried NOT to think too much about where the BTC price might go during that period in which I was building my target BTC accumulation levels.  So there are many times that I could look back and second guess my strategy and verify that I could have accumulated way more than twice as much BTC with the same amount of fiat capital that I had employed into BTC, but I still find that second-guessing to be almost useless because if I continue to invest in bitcoin whether it goes up or down, I still have given myself upwards price movement insurance.  In other words, while in the midst of the BTC price movement, we cannot really know how much more time we are going to be spending at x, y, or z price levels or if those BTC buying levels are going to end up disappearing.

I have seen a lot of folks making way BIGGER mistakes than me by waiting or NOT acting, because they are either failing to continue to invest in BTC, and they are waiting for lower BTC prices before taking action.  

So, any of us might consider if we have goals to accumulate a certain quantity of BTC and we have not reached our BTC accumulation goals yet, then it is much better to just act on a regular basis, even if we can only afford $20 per week or some modest amount that we feel comfortable putting into bitcoin, it will still add up over time, and sometimes keeping a bit of extra fiat to buy on dips, can be helpful too, during our BTC accumulation phases.

So another hypothetical, maybe we could afford $20 per week to put into BTC, but we want to prepare ourselves for BTC price dips, too, so instead we decide to inject $15 per week into BTC and to just save the $5 per week in order to be prepared for buying more on dips.  I know that these numbers might sound small, and I am using small numbers to demonstrate that each of us needs to be reasonable in terms of making sure that we are working within our budget, but also that almost anyone can establish some kind of plan that is going to add up to be a lot of BTC in the future as long as the timeline is long enough, and it frequently takes 30 years or more for someone to build their retirement portfolio, but I bet with BTC there are decent chances that the quantity of time could end up being considerably reduced.

So even with $20 per week over the past 7 years, the BTC accumulator with a dollar cost averaging (DCA) approach would have accumulated nearly 14 BTC by now, and even if it might be a lot more difficult to accumulate that quantity of BTC, there is still likely to continue to be decent ongoing BTC price performance in the coming years.

Seems that at some point, we might no longer be able to obtain BTC in the 4 digits realm, and that could happen within weeks or maybe it takes a couple more years before we clear out of the 4 digits realm completely, but the person who DCAs into BTC should not really care so much either way, as long as s/he has a long enough investment time horizon, it will likely continue to work out as long as s/he also figures out safe ways to store the accumulated BTC, too.

Exactly the same here, usually when things that are hyped fail to live up to expectations, like the halving did, then things just fall apart. I'm thinking of all the times people thought price would pick up and did not, it usually led to liquidations as people gave up their orders but weirdly enough this didn't happen in this case. Here we are where we were last Saturday too.

That R1 level came into play:



The bigger picture is still unclear as we head into the weekend. Possible cup-and-handle, but I don't usually put much faith into these patterns on intraday time frames:


Bottom line for now: we can't celebrate a new bull market until $10.5K is broken with authority. Technically it's still all lower highs and lower lows since June 2019.

Surely any of us could figure out systems that are tailored to ourselves that attempt to take advantage of decent sizes of volatility that seems almost inevitable in bitcoin, and surely there are periods of time in which the volatility is greater than others... but ongoing BTC volatility has been happening a lot and there really should be no reason to conclude that it is going to lessen any time into the near future.

Personally, I believe that it would not be very prudent for newbies to be attempting to take advantage of BTC volatility until they have largely established their BTC accumulation base, first, so surely I am not much of an advocate of either BTC  trading or even trying to predict BTC price direction on the short-term; however, once any BTC HODLer establishes a decent base (accumulation level), then there can be a variety of tactics to use a relatively small portion of their BTC holdings to take advantage of BTC volatility.  Of course, more professional traders are going to be able to use a higher portion of their BTC value, but still I am NOT much of an advocate of engaging in those strategies and to be careful about the amount of BTC that anyone is putting at risk for certain kinds of trades.

Regarding your specific point about knocking on the doors of $10k, of course, the last day or so has caused that imminently pending situation to become less imminent, but jeez, like I already mentioned, I was becoming quite skeptical if we were going to get back up into the $9ks, just a couple of days ago, and kind of felt like we could be testing support in the lower $8ks again, and then pretty much within less than 24 hours, we went all the way through the $9ks as if we were going to skip them completely, but then that did end up resulting in too much too soon.... so sure, we are back in the mid $9ks and perhaps wondering about the next short-term BTC price direction.  

Currently, as I type, BTC prices are bouncing around between about $9,400 and $9,550 and short term BTC price direction does seem to be favoring down, a bit, or at least to test support at $9k, but you are not going to get me making any kinds of calls of ascribing certainty to any shorter-term BTC price calls that I attempt to make, so I will leave that to exstasie and some of the others.