Topic: Yet another analyst - page 6. (Read 10498 times)

Head fake it is. Very nice recovery from the lows, comfortably above the lower daily band and the 50-day MA. Early bears trapped again, and the game of ping pong continues. Those bands are getting tighter and tighter:



Unsurprisingly, the move coincided with a recovery in the stock market:



The FED just announced they'll start buying a portfolio of corporate bonds, across the entire market. The market is loving it. Trying to fight the FED turns out to be a loser's game yet again.

Stocks rally on Fed's plan to buy individual corporate bonds

It's worth noting that higher lows are still in tact right now. Holding $9K (but failing to close above $9.3K) would merely put me back on the fence, but I see the bearish argument here:

This is a make or break moment:



As you can see, closing above/below the 50-day MA (currently $9,284 Coinbase) has consistently defined the mid-term trend. The daily Bollinger Bands have tightened considerably as well, with the lower BB at $9,060.....so we're on the verge of a major breakdown.

Closing the day like this would be pretty bearish. If bulls can wick this up and close the day at $9,300+ it begins to look like a head fake.

BTC moving in lockstep with stocks again. S&P 500 futures full retracing the June rally, back to mid-May levels, really ugly stuff:

Good chance of that, yep. A V-bottom recovery to sustained ATHs like after the 1987 stock market crash is still technically possible but I don't think the underlying fundamentals support that at all.

I believe VIX will tell the story:



The Friday session closed strongly in stocks, leaving that bearish gravestone candle on VIX, which also closed below the upper BB. It's possible we're building out another scenario like inside the yellow ellipse, which would mean one more weak leg up in stocks before a significant crash.

What that spells for BTC exactly, I'm not sure. It could mean continued sub-$10.5K ranging until that crash comes, which is what happened the last time stocks broke upward.

Don't like this stocks/btc correlation at all as stocks are up for one hell of a beating.

Are we seeing a return to correlated BTC and stock markets? SPX and BTC both with 6% drops yesterday:





On BTC: Still higher lows in terms of the larger structure, still inside the range, but no immediate bullish retrace of the dump and hitting resistance at the daily BB basis. Bears are back in the game but they need to take out $8,600 in order to sweep stops and to have a hope of building out a bearish mid-term trend.

Watching stocks closely now. Strong spikes in volatility like this are often mid-term bearish.

Yes you're probably right. I wanted to avoid looking at this as a rising wedge, as for me it would suggest a bearish bias, but given how the upwards sloping resistance isn't very steep, I'd therefore be able to argue that the bearish bias isn't very strong. My main reservation would be that there are only two clusters of touch-points at resistance however, this is probably why I feel more comfortable seeing it as an imperfect ascending triange that satisfies my needs better of a confirmed pattern




Indeed. Whether I see this as a bull flag still, descending triangle or rising wedge is far less relevant than price breaking out of this range to confirm a direction.


That's good to know  

It may worth mentioning that we kinda have historically a high somewhere in the summer.
In 2017 it was at the end of August, in 2018 it was in in July and in 2019 (an AYH) in June.

It could also be seen as a rising wedge, which BTC actually loves to break upwards from.

I tend to view patterns like this in EW terms, so I don't see a triangle per se but it doesn't really matter I guess. The same principles apply as any other range breakout.


Anything in that range sounds realistic to me. Monthly pivot high at $12.3K. After this length of consolidation I wouldn't even rule out a wick near the $13.2K monthly pivot. I assume bears will make their last stand in that area, if not earlier.

I'm starting to see this as a bullish ascending triangle (better late than never). I've been looking at this consolidation pattern as a bull flag for weeks now, but given the strong rejections from the horizontal resistance, as well as wicking down close to the upwards trending support, it's starting to resemble one for me again. There is the obvious head fake that invalidates this pattern, as well as an "unclean" upwards trending support, but it feels very relevant again none the less:



While the measured move target of 23% would put BTC at around $12.3K, the $ move to around $11,869 seems more realistic to me. Especially given the imperfection of this pattern. The yellow box at the end of 66 bars would otherwise be the anticipated breakout zone, with 75% of the triangle completed. A breakout is imminent it seems.

Interesting candles:



Bears keep smacking price down with these high volume selloffs at resistance, but the market keeps floating back up each time. 4-hour OBV was looking bearish for a while but is now perking up very nicely after this last rebound.

Seen plenty of BTC charts that curve into an upside breakout off this sort of price action. Previous comments about range still apply but it definitely feels bullish......

I'm thinking along similarly lines myself. I'd like to see that high volume dump candle on June 2nd fully retraced (~$10,200) before getting too excited. That would get us back above the daily upper BB as well.

I'm slightly concerned about sentiment and commitment of traders:


Here is a look at longs vs. shorts on Bitfinex. Not many shorts to squeeze:

Feeling a bit more bullish now then?

I noticed last night we found the key support we needed on the 4hr. Despite a lot of fear & doubt leading upto the Weekly close that was (and did) signal a TD 9 Sell (see quote below for thoughts), we were supported by the 100 & 200 Day MAs, the local volume point of control at $9,509, as well as the mid-level support of the current bull flag structure:



I agree that longer-term without breaking through $10.5K we are still below key resistance, as well as now re-testing the (purple) long-term bull trend channel (that could flip to resistance), but last nights short-term bear trap does give me a bullish bias around 60-40. If we can get above $10K again then this would move to 70-30 for me. Thoughts?

My Weekly perspective can be found here:

I've seen again people telling the bull run is starting.
https://mobile.twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1267214325661433856
I'm not convinced it's meaningful or just babble.

If so, the lack of downward movement would maybe make sense.

The lack of downward follow through in BTCUSD is interesting. Large cap alts like XLM and ADA have also risen against BTC, and have pumped to new highs against USD, so the market appears to be buoyant despite the short term failure off $10.4K.

As long as the daily range holds, and especially if we keep forming higher lows above that June 2nd bottom ($9,270 Coinbase) this is beginning to look bullish to me. Bears aren't bringing any momentum and price is just floating back up.

Levels of interest:

• $10.5K (obviously)
• Below $8,630 pivot = significant lower low

hahahaha

You mean that it is likely that we are going to have to see those Vegeta memes again, when we return back to $9k.

Some people are getting sick of the Vegeta memes, but hey going above $9k is likely better than going below $8k, so there is that.

As of now, we have not quite gotten below $9k, so I am not one to give up hope, in regards to support until after it already breaks and other peeps are saying: "I told you so" to me, which is fine.  I don't really mind a few downward corrections along the way to greater richie status.  By the way, for me, I was able to use our move up to $10,407 as a way to rebalance my books in a few ways that are likely to have been a lot less painful than if we had gone down from our mid-$9ks from yesterday.. so up before down is definitely working for me, personally... and at the same time.. so far, we are largely up before sideways.. but sure, we could get some down from here, too (outside of those wee downward spikes that we saw to $9,135-ish, so far in the past hours)..

Oh yeah, a $1,300 BTC price correction can be really scary for some folks getting involved in BTC if they have not previously prepared themselves (psychologically and financially) for such BTC price craziness.  But if you zoom out a bit, you have to look beyond the mere correction part of the formula and appreciate that the outrageous BTC correction was largely only as great as it was because the day before there was a $900 price bounce.... so our status update might be merely characterized as a $400 price fall ($1,300 - $900) that has recovered to where it was...   Which is a BIG wooptie doo, except for the drama (or excitement) aspect in the middle... and for me, for some reason, most of the time, UP before DOWN tends to feel better than DOWN before UP.. even if they might end up achieving the same results (ie mostly flat).   

Psych! Sorry bulls! Bearish engulfing on the daily, all of yesterday's gains are now lost. This market is not ready to break range after all.

Bart top in full effect:



$10.5K established once again as the resistance of all resistances to break.

The daily Bollinger Band head fake is foreboding. As I have pointed out before, we often get a headfake in one direction before breaking out in the other. The ball is back in the bears' court. $8,600 and $8,100 are the levels to break.

Big bullish engulfing candle on the daily, and new highs!



Could this be it?!

First things first, let's see whether the candle closes above the upper BB in ~40 minutes. The real fireworks start above $10.5K.

Seems the weekend would have been a better time to sell, but not by much anyway. What surprised me is today is still above 9500.


I'm on the same page here, and I admit when I take BTC and put it into something else, I'm completely gambling, so I don't even follow them much once I take them, don't even store them properly just leave them on exchanges but I do believe in dominance figures as well and on the BTC ATH bull that will take altcoins flying.

When people say "buy the dip" that's really the important question: which dip?

This actually applies to all prospective investments, although as you know by now altcoin bear markets are particularly long and unforgiving. After the 2017 bubble popped I promised myself I wouldn't even look at the altcoin market for 2 years. I was traumatized by the 2014 bear market and wasn't going to make that mistake again.

When it comes to shitcoins I have no problem at all missing the bottom. I'm only interested in raging bull markets.