Topic: 🔶 YOLOdice.com 🔶 suspended on 16st Mar 2021 - page 7. (Read 143533 times)

Fixed.   Our mempool is still growing... the larger it is, the more accurate it will be.

We had to move some stuff around and change a little logic & a new server, but she's looking better.  It's aiming for around 0.5MB to 0.75MB deep & she updates every minute.

This website is really decent too:  https://fee.cryp.ee/#/btc

Thanks for pointing that out Darkstar.

Good luck Ethan.

I've never heard of estimaterawfee... it's not in the "help" text when I type it on the Console!  lol *sigh* (or maybe I'm blind?)

We messed around with estimatesmartfee for a while.

Bitcoin Core's estimator is trash.  Even "economical" is WAY overpriced from my experience "these days" (2017 and after).

They have no incentive to have their system pricing stuff fairly and all the incentive to overprice the hell out of it!  (Profit for miners + no one bitching at developers because they didn't get confirmations, lol because you're going to get confirmations using Bitcoin Cores estimator!!!!!!  I speculate that the Bitcoin Miners are purposely gaming the Bitcoin Core estimator too.)

I explain it like this... None of us know the future, but we do know the present and the past.

Think of the Bitcoin network like a 6 lane highway that does get busy.  

Friday = traffic jams and Sunday = Pretty easy driving.

Bitcoin Core tries to get you to drive on Sunday as if it's Friday's traffic!  That's fucking r-e-t-a-r-d-e-d!!!!!!!!!

Anyone who has ever driven a car knows that you drive with your eyes in real-time... sure you don't know the future, but you just do your best in the present.

---

I also agree with RHavar's 1, 2, & 3.   RBF is a pain in the ass too, but it's a good fucking feature!

FB's cap our Bitcoin withdraw fees both ways with a min and a max.  (10vsat min and 0.0003 BTC max)

The API I posted will reflect that 10vsat min... there won't be a max, so you may need to add some logic if you want a max.)

[We are still working on a permanent fix for that API thing, I'll post when she's complete... it shouldn't be long]

I've spent a lot of time on it, and honestly bitcoin core's algorithm is actually quite good. There's little things you can do to improve it, but it's probably not worth it.


Often it looks stupidly high, but let's say you are using the default conservative estimate, (a 95% confidence?) -- it implicitly takes into consideration occurrences like "What if there's no blocks for the next 30 minutes, and everyone is out bidding each other". If that doesn't happen, your fee will indeed be stupidly high. But otherwise, it would've ended up stuck


If you want to save money on fees, there's a few good things you can do (both are annoying and a bit of a PITA though):


1) Batching
2) Low-Ball the fee (target a long-range with economical) and keep bumpfee it until it ends up confirmed
3) Cap the (initial) fee rate you're paying, so you're never too early in the mempool. If you're doing 2) you can bump it later as required, but you don't want to ever really be one of the highest fee rate transactions if you can avoid it

That's exactly what I did as well.  The same website too!

Good eye, something broke, Xploited is fixing the API call right now... because your right, 10 looks hella low atm.

I forgot to mention, we have it set to a minimum of 10, even if the network is lower.  I've just seen the network blowup in the low numbers too fast... 10 seems to be a decent number.

I'll post when she's fixed... it should just be a minute.

I really like the idea behind it; it's pretty much what I've been doing manually looking at Johoe's mempool stats. However, for some reason, it seems to be returning 10 satsPerVByte right now, despite there being 45+ MB of transactions greater than paying greater than 10 sat/byte.

All of those estimators are T-R-A-S-H.  For the exact reasons as you outlined in a previous post (using historical data rather than real time).

I've had Xploited (CLAM creator) create an API call you can use to estimate your stuff.  It's the same estimates that we use for our exchange and our swap tool.

Basically,  This estimates the cost to go .75 MB deep in the chain at the time of the request.  Each block usually takes 1mb off the chain, so it's isn't very aggressive and transactions can take some time to confirm.  Being not aggressive kind of helps not contribute to unnecessary blockchain bloat.

I think you'll be shocked at the price difference and the speed these estimates confirm!

https://freebitcoins.com/xchange/api/v1/btcfee ({"satsPerVbyte":"102"} at the time of this post)

Hopefully this helps y'all and your users!  If you don't know what VBytes are... message me and I'll connect you with Xploited. <3

You could set the fee as fixed 100sat/b. This would maybe take 6 hours to confirm, which whouldn't be a problem. With fees of around $30 you're overpaying, even with the current status of the mempool.
That said, wish I had that LTC high roller in my referrals

Still the amount look too high because the highest possible fee required for one input and one output transaction is going to be less weigh than 1kvbyte so why better to process them in bytes to reduce the fees a lot more further.

I have changed the ways the BTC withdrawal fees and now we take the fee/kb from https://btc.com/stats/unconfirmed-tx .

I was about to say they got much lower now, but the values got high again. Right now the instant withdrawal fee is high again at 0.001680 BTC and batch is at 0.00084000 BTC as the mempool becomes full again :-(

Cheers,
Ethan

I can see that LTC loses raises a lot of controversy and I fully understand it. The first time (in Dec 2019) someone won most of the bankroll was when we (me and Scott) owned the bankroll, so someone won ~4k LTC in just a few days. This plus ~700 LTC in rakeback and referral bonuses. These were taken directly from our pockets. We then changed the max bet profit and changed the rules to make such wins less likely. We've also opened LTC to other investors, hoping for the stable (although probably less exciting) growth. LTC profits came back to 2019 levels, but to our despair a similar thing happened in Aug 2020.

Believe me, we became paranoid after the first win, but the second time this happened made us ultra-paranoid. We have been checking server logs, bet history, API requests, algorithms, number generators... everything we could. Although we found nothing, this was still disturbing for us, not to mention investors (you).

We've never made our LTC back, and if you had investments open in Aug 2020 you probably suffered a huge loss too. I can only say we did all we could to make sure it was a fair win and I believe it was. The probability was low, but it happened.

Other bankrolls did not suffer anything similar (fortunately), but are under-performing too. All BTC, ETH (which is not a public bankroll), LTC and DOGE's expected profit is higher than real profit, which is disturbing for us too. It looks like some players with really high budgets were playing YOLOdice and their budget allowed them to keep winning. When you have large budget you can will small for quite a long time, until you lose in a big way. But this (unfortunately for us, investors) did not happen.

I also realize that this discrepancy between the actual and expected profit could undermine our reputation and I don't feel well about it. That's also one of the reasons we are suspending YOLOdice, although I would be much, much happier if we could close when the profits were at ATH.

Besides, I still believe we could come with a model where both players and investors could be protected by a Provably Fair algorithm and not rely on site operators.

Cheers,
Ethan

I believe only way that yolodice could ever be sold would be someone who is already huge in the crypto gambling world as it is could maybe take it with a lot of money, someone who has already successfully managed a casino before, and has the means to buy this one as well, creating both a good amount of purchase offer for ethan to consider it but also credible enough that everybody knows they will not be stealing people's money or something like that.

Only very few people I can think of like that who is not actively running a casino right now and that is either RHavar or Stunna, both managed to create world's biggest crypto casinos respectively for their time and both got out at the right time, both are very trusted, and both have the money for it. Yet I am %99 sure that they are not interested since just like Ethan they just wanted to get out.

A big percentage if not all of those losses were suffered by investors, not necessarily by the casino.

Although they do a quite good exit but still they really need to answer those questions came from their investors so that they can clarify on what happen on that losses since it's really confusing to see those scenarios happening, but I'm quite confident that those are legitimate incident but let see the explanation made by ethan.

I was wondering the same thing at the time. According to all statistics, one player won massive amounts of LTC in just a few bets. There was a question whether there was an abuse of some kind of system bug or just extreme luck.
Although Ethan put some security measures after that, we never got a clear answer what really happened.

And the day has come the Closure of YOLOdice in this forum has decided


expecting next week that this thread will be close also , Is there any Farewell event from yolodice before the closure comes next month ?

at least for the memory and gratitude for the Bitcointalk community  .

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/snipies-gambling-investment-test-5254959

and this investment test as well will be closed soon , Great Journey YOLO supporter see you next time .

if you check the graph, 18-21 August there are some big wins which get more than 50% of LTC bankroll. As you can see, he has not recovered to this day.
I'm not blaming anyone here, I'm just saying that something didn't work well here. Which casino can operate with a 50% loss?



About the security issue, yes I speak with admins and tell me that his log is everything normal, probably is someone from my computer send my BTC. Even if no log details from my IP or anyone at the time of withdrawing funds from my account. So, someone closes my investment, exchange altcoins to BTC, withdraw Bitcoin without any clue in the log.
extremely suspicious when I know that is two weeks old account, where I am logged in only using Brave browser which is fresh installed, mainly to use it for login in Yolodice and one more similar service. As I haven't much experience with Brave, I thought that was where the problem arose. Even if all my other funds in many other services still untouched, nor were there any known attempts.

I don't think that you can blame the losses on Yolodice.

Unless there is substantiated evidence that Yolodice is tampering with the provably fair mechanism, which there is none, then the losses can simply be attributed to variance.

But the security problem is very interesting - how much did you lose, when was this, and what was the resolution that Yolodice gave you at the end? Did you get to speak directly to the admins about the issue or just a mod/support?

You reminded me the sad story of Safe(!!!)Dice. The owner went missing and disappeared from the scenes and even left the game running: there was an automated wallet re-balance which made deposit and withdrawals still available under some certain thresholds. People kept playing and losing but some were able to get something out. (cold wallet went rogue...)
I once remember some safedicers called a YD a scam. History proved who were the real scammers.
Good luck Ethan and see you around!

The future financial world will still need the geeks but it is going to be much more permissioned. Boundless, open exchange that happens on crypto-gambling sites doesn't really sit well with financial institutions.
Congratulations for a great run and an incident-free, graceful closure. Hope we can hear of the experience you guys had at some outlet.