Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. (Read 7757 times)

pretty much relentless up ticks




even .5% means

1.005 to the 26 power in a year  means a 13.8% net jump for the year.


now this year of 2024 was really strong jump due to so much killer gear coming out.

my t21 gear on a down clock does under 16 watts a th

my s21 xp does under 13 watts a th

these units do

 170 = down clock t21
 270 = normal s21xp

the best gear of the 19's was the xp's and they were hard pressed to stay under 20 watts a th.





_______________________________________________
__________________________________________________
____________________________________________________

from newhedge.io


Latest Block:   876799  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.1312%  (1856 / 1853.57 expected, 2.43 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   103919634711492.2                            
Current Difficulty:   108522647629298.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 108748806976814 and 108750243549161
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2084% and +0.2097%
Previous Retarget:   December 15, 2024 at 8:18 PM  (+4.4294%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:52 PM  (in 1d 2h 37m 54s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 7:52 PM  (in 1d 2h 38m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 33m 34s and 13d 23h 33m 44s


small up tick with about 26 or 27 hours to go.


in 2024 we went from about 72.0t to about 108.6t

this is about 50% yearly jump or 1.65% every 2 weeks


yearly that is pretty good. not sure we can do this again but time will tell.

almost done

Latest Block:   876911  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.0667%  (1968 / 1947.23 expected, 20.77 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   103919634711492.2                           
Current Difficulty:   108522647629298.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 109761345727137 and 109762056359551
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.1414% and +1.1421%
Previous Retarget:   December 15, 2024 at 8:18 PM  (+4.4294%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 4:46 PM  (in 0d 7h 54m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 4:46 PM  (in 0d 7h 55m 3s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 27m 13s and 13d 20h 27m 20s

I am not that much younger than you both  , with tons of health issues and a big family to look after, I am a terrible candidate for the task, I am sure the forum could use some fresh blood when Phill decides he wants to stop the difficulty threads.

Anyway, 2026 is still a long way, you may never know what could happen till then, all I could hope for is that we all stay alive and healthy.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   876242  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   99.9974%  (1299 / 1299.03 expected, 0.03 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   103919634711492.2                            
Current Difficulty:   108522647629298.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 108626200145063 and 108641211655855
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0954% and +0.1093%
Previous Retarget:   December 15, 2024 at 8:18 PM  (+4.4294%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 8:19 PM  (in 4d 23h 30m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 8:19 PM  (in 4d 23h 30m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 0m 27s and 14d 0h 0m 31s


basically zero after 1300 blocks

we should do next jump on the 29th

I will over lap a few posts as the next jump/epoch will start in 2024 and go to 2025.

2025 should be a hell of a year.


just a bit under the pace of 100% 3 days and 5 hours left



Latest Block:   876486  (33 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.5521%  (1543 / 1549.94 expected, 6.94 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   103919634711492.2                           
Current Difficulty:   108522647629298.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 108137840443972 and 108158952303609
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.3546% and -0.3351%
Previous Retarget:   December 15, 2024 at 8:18 PM  (+4.4294%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 9:44 PM  (in 3d 7h 6m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 9:49 PM  (in 3d 7h 11m 16s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 25m 42s and 14d 1h 30m 42s

Ah yeah I will turn 68 next month.

I have the bro-in-law with dementia which really takes up time.


I kind of want to have some fun with my wife maybe go to Dollywood or maybe see her cousins in Australia.

Really posting here is like a job . My energy levels are decent, but it is not the same excitement that it was years ago.

At least I did pick one good thing in my life to put time and energy into it and get some returns.

I get where yer coming from. I'm 68 and in April finally retired after 48 years in the industrial laser biz. You'd think with the spare time I'd consider taking over after next year but no:
a. Can't say I'm as prolific a poster here as you or others
b. Frankly just don't have the energy to do it... (or just get to enjoy being lazy after working for so long...)

Wonder if Mikey would take over?  

even with the large price drop from 108k to about 93k the diff goes 🆙

I had to find a seller closer to home, to try to get on this path. The problem was the investment, which could have a very slow ROI, so I don't know if it's worth it.

One day maybe I will actually be able to have an ASIC to mine. 

every bull run we had 3 to 10 months of good retail mining .


So maybe it will happen again. we are short at 107k price the s21xp just barely makes it.

most usa miners retail are not looking to buy a 7500 usd loud hot machine to garage mine.

we are not there yet. but closer to where it makes some sense to mine in your home.

you can mine with the bitchimmny from altairtech.io
it can do 40th at 800 watts its a good garage miner.

but it costs 2000 usd.

fast math in my house 13 cents a kwatts in winter x 20 kwatts. my cost is $2.60. and 6.3 cents x 40 is $2.52

so mining for profit is just short

You think you will live again
I think it will be a little complicated, but it would be good.

well almost 100 blocks ahead.

It still looks like the big mines are trying to keep up with price.

we are at about 6.33 cents a th.

So a 200th miner earns 12.66 a day
it burns 85 kwatts

so my 16.6 cent winter rate  adjusted to 13 cents due to 'free' heat means  I pay 11.05 a day. 

So a net of 161 usd a day from now til May1 summer rate.

Not good enough for retail mining fomo We need to get to 10 cents a th

which would mean 20 a day which at my house would net $8.95 a day.

the problem is to go to 10 cents a th means price needs to be over 150k

Still looks like retail home mining is kind of dead.

However, taking stock of the year 2024, we had a year of significant changes in difficulty or not.
On an annual average, did the difficulty rise, fall or stay the same?


That other topic I was doing helped with that. But, I stopped updating it. 

Although intel is gone for now it does seem bitmain will build gear in the usa to beat the trump tax.

HaggsFIN posted about it on my other thread.

This makes me think, that the potential tariff's by Trump could really make mining hardware way more expensive. I haven't been paying attention much in the last year, but whatever happened to the Intel SHA256 chips? I assume that other major upheavals within Intel overshadowed their SHA256 efforts and it all just got discarded.

yeah I will do one more for trump's first year of his term.

I think it's mainly due to the fact there has not been any special change in the difficulty pace, you have your average two or three 2-4% ups, followed by 1-2% drop, rinse and repeat, this has been the case for the past six months, we had 3 drops vs 9 spikes, nothing was out of the ordinary given that BTC has increased massively form where we started the year, so the things that didn't make sense back then, do make a bit more sense today.


As we move on, I think difficulty changes would be more predictable, and thus difficulty discussions would be less interesting, but I think you should certainly make another one for 2025, you may never know!.

well this thread is dying off.



It has been done a long time but I think I may end this one and maybe do 1 more year.

I need to go back and check how many I did.

I mined in 2013 at home, with GPU.
There should have been more miners, but I didn't risk what I should. Or bought some asic miners. At least one, it would have been fun.

Well my home has 16.6 cent a kwatt power.  for the winter and 20.0 cent a kwatt at home for the summer.

My s21xp does 3600 watts or 86.4 kwatts a day at 13.0 cents as it is winter and I get heat savings it costs me $11.23 a day to run in house.

it does 273th not 270 (good chips by luck). so 273 x 0.061 =16.65 a day

 16.53
-11.23
  5.30 daily profit

on a retail home.


but of course come May 1 I do not need the heat.  and this is the best miner in existence  costs 7200 usd


So we are not there yet for retail home mining.

and I am not sure we will ever get there.


we did do it in
 2013
 2017
 2021

to be there we need to be at 12 cents a th earnings and we are at 6.1 cent earnings

so 180k price would be needed and quick enough to out strip the big mines growth ability.

With Bitcoin almost reaching 100k, is it becoming viable to connect more machines?
Or is it still only viable for those who have the 21 models?

about 8 days to go.

we are 30 blocks ahead.

time will tell if we back off a bit.