2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 3.

joker_josue

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Quote from: mikeywith on April 20, 2024, 06:27:19 AM

Fees are hight due to Bitcoin Runes protocol, created by the same guy who invented Ordinals, it went live with the halving which is the reason why this happened.

What protocol is this "Bitcoin Runes" and what does it do?
By the way, I had never heard of this protocol... But maybe I was the one who was distracted. Lips sealed

mikeywith

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Quote from: joker_josue on April 20, 2024, 03:23:22 AM

The crowd went completely crazy! This will only make the market stop. I refer to the market, where the money comes from, because it becomes practically impossible to sell/buy BTC. Well, it's not impossible, but it's not very viable for lower amounts.

Fees are hight due to Bitcoin Runes protocol, created by the same guy who invented Ordinals, it went live with the halving which is the reason why this happened.

Also, just like how things ended for Ordinals, I believe this hype will be short lived, when not enough people buy into it -- it will stop, greedy people are looking for ways to get rich overnight, some of them will, the majority will just lose money.

joker_josue

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Quote from: mikeywith on April 19, 2024, 08:38:49 PM

Let's see how we do going forward, the ordinals folks are jamming the blockchain with fees up to 2500sat/vbyte, antpool just mined a 27btc block, so rewards are even greater than before the halving, this would likely stop difficulty from going down until Ordinals folks decide which block number is not worth much.

The crowd went completely crazy! This will only make the market stop. I refer to the market, where the money comes from, because it becomes practically impossible to sell/buy BTC. Well, it's not impossible, but it's not very viable for lower amounts.

mikeywith

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So viabtc mined the last block, Braiins pool mined the first one in this halving.

The current numbers are as follows:

Quote

Latest Block:
840003 (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:
102.4057% (1348 / 1316.33 expected, 31.67 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:
83126997340024.61
Current Difficulty:
86388558925171.02
Next Difficulty:
between 88279043830965 and 88517950821431
Next Difficulty Change:
between +2.1884% and +2.4649%
Previous Retarget:
April 10, 2024 at 11:09 PM (+3.9236%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
Wednesday at 3:16 PM (in 4d 12h 43m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):
Wednesday at 4:08 PM (in 4d 13h 35m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 13d 16h 6m 23s and 13d 16h 58m 23s

Let's see how we do going forward, the ordinals folks are jamming the blockchain with fees up to 2500sat/vbyte, antpool just mined a 27btc block, so rewards are even greater than before the halving, this would likely stop difficulty from going down until Ordinals folks decide which block number is not worth much.

philipma1957

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Quote from: philipma1957 on April 18, 2024, 06:45:20 PM

Quote from: stompix on April 18, 2024, 10:04:47 AM

Quote from: NotATether on April 18, 2024, 07:39:22 AM

Quote from: stompix on April 17, 2024, 03:38:14 PM

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.
What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

Well my bad, sometimes I really forget that I need to add extra details when talking about something, In my mind I know I've said it before so I assume that everyone knows what I'm talking about!

I don't think ordinals will ever go away! EVER!
I think that as long as 1sat/vb will mean every guy in this universe with 4-5k to spare might want to inscribe his name to be there forever in one full block will be able to do it, and pretty cheaply considering the amount of people spend for shit around! So the spam will keep going at 1sat/vb, but I don't think it will manage to keep going for long at rates of 100sat/vb, since this will no longer imply some maniacs but an actual industry to support 1.5 mils and over a day.

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

Also, real life is full of surprises, back in September I opened this topic:
When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations?
most were saying never, a long time, bla bla..
It hit 1sat on October 03, 2023.

Dif is still at 1.7%, halving in a day and a bit, price back up a bit.
Time to get the popcorn ready, place a few bets, and enjoy the shitshow

we will get some low fees. the method i list for a big company means ordinal attacks are on and off.

and while we had 1 sat in oct 2023. we have over 3btc a block for most of dec and jan.

tick tock

Quote

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   839923 (37 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.1596% (1268 / 1241.20 expected, 26.8 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83126997340024.61
Current Difficulty:   86388558925171.02
Next Difficulty:   between 88038950002524 and 88308275794963
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.9104% and +2.2222%
Previous Retarget:   April 10, 2024 at 5:09 PM (+3.9236%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 10:03 AM (in 5d 2h 1m 52s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 11:02 AM (in 5d 3h 0m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 53m 49s and 13d 17h 52m 29s

we are 77 from the ½ ing. 840,000 - 839,923 = 77

ugh

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: stompix on April 18, 2024, 10:04:47 AM

Quote from: NotATether on April 18, 2024, 07:39:22 AM

Quote from: stompix on April 17, 2024, 03:38:14 PM

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.
What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

Well my bad, sometimes I really forget that I need to add extra details when talking about something, In my mind I know I've said it before so I assume that everyone knows what I'm talking about!

I don't think ordinals will ever go away! EVER!
I think that as long as 1sat/vb will mean every guy in this universe with 4-5k to spare might want to inscribe his name to be there forever in one full block will be able to do it, and pretty cheaply considering the amount of people spend for shit around! So the spam will keep going at 1sat/vb, but I don't think it will manage to keep going for long at rates of 100sat/vb, since this will no longer imply some maniacs but an actual industry to support 1.5 mils and over a day.

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

Also, real life is full of surprises, back in September I opened this topic:
When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations?
most were saying never, a long time, bla bla..
It hit 1sat on October 03, 2023.

Dif is still at 1.7%, halving in a day and a bit, price back up a bit.
Time to get the popcorn ready, place a few bets, and enjoy the shitshow

we will get some low fees. the method i list for a big company means ordinal attacks are on and off.

and while we had 1 sat in oct 2023. we have over 3btc a block for most of dec and jan.

joker_josue

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Quote from: stompix on April 18, 2024, 10:04:47 AM

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

A good comparison for fees. I agree that the fee will not always stay high, the market will come to a point when it can no longer support this.

But, for me, the worst thing about Ordinals, besides raising rates, is causing clogging in the mempool, damaging the entire ecosystem, no matter if the fee is high or low.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: NotATether on April 18, 2024, 07:39:22 AM

Quote from: stompix on April 17, 2024, 03:38:14 PM

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.
What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

Well my bad, sometimes I really forget that I need to add extra details when talking about something, In my mind I know I've said it before so I assume that everyone knows what I'm talking about!

I don't think ordinals will ever go away! EVER!
I think that as long as 1sat/vb will mean every guy in this universe with 4-5k to spare might want to inscribe his name to be there forever in one full block will be able to do it, and pretty cheaply considering the amount of people spend for shit around! So the spam will keep going at 1sat/vb, but I don't think it will manage to keep going for long at rates of 100sat/vb, since this will no longer imply some maniacs but an actual industry to support 1.5 mils and over a day.

Much like expensive wine, you do have a few clients for 50k bottles but no way Walmart is going to sell only bottles above 1000.

Also, real life is full of surprises, back in September I opened this topic:
When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations?
most were saying never, a long time, bla bla..
It hit 1sat on October 03, 2023.

Dif is still at 1.7%, halving in a day and a bit, price back up a bit.
Time to get the popcorn ready, place a few bets, and enjoy the shitshow

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on April 18, 2024, 07:54:22 AM

Quote from: NotATether on April 18, 2024, 07:39:22 AM

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.

What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

I so agree with this. I post a photo showing the last 7 years of the mempool over and over as it is clearly showing the spam is here to stay and slowly growing.

Looking at this graph, it can be seen that since the beginning of 2023, rates have risen significantly compared to other periods, and are not as low as before.

Perhaps it is an increase in transaction movements, and the coincidence with the emergence of Ordinals, is just that coincidence. But, I have my doubts.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: NotATether on April 18, 2024, 07:39:22 AM

Quote from: stompix on April 17, 2024, 03:38:14 PM

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.

What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

I so agree with this. I post a photo showing the last 7 years of the mempool over and over as it is clearly showing the spam is here to stay and slowly growing.

NotATether

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Quote from: stompix on April 17, 2024, 03:38:14 PM

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

I don't think Ordinals spam is going anywhere actually, even with Runes, because you know, BRC-20 still exists and a lot of weird exchanges for it are being made and their creators aren't going to just close shop like that.

What's more likely to happen is that the mempool will become more of a swamp. Double so now that the halving is literally happening in days and there will naturally be way more transactions by then.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: stompix on April 17, 2024, 03:38:14 PM

So we had a +3.9% and we're looking at +1.9% while the price is going right now at -13% on the week.

And this means income per th/s is down to 9.88, we get 4.94 cents after halving.
This is going to hurt a bit, but I still think it will be temporary, I'm still standing on my Q2 gamble, although that last almost 4% jump was a bit of an unexpected move.

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

so in 2-3 days we go to 4.7 cents

an s21 does 200th or $9.40 earnings

burns 87 kwatts make it 90kwatts

the is 9.90 dollars with 11 cent power
this is 9.00 dollars with 10 cent power
this is 8.10 dollars with 9 cent power
this is 7.20 dollars with 8 cent power

so the s21 will be okay for low power miners.
the t21 is $8.93 EARNED

SO IT IS OKAY at 8 cents
even 9 cents

but all s19's are hurting like mad.

s19 xp earns 6.58 burns 80kwatts it will work with 7 cent power.

so far things are shaky

stompix

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So we had a +3.9% and we're looking at +1.9% while the price is going right now at -13% on the week.

And this means income per th/s is down to 9.88, we get 4.94 cents after halving.
This is going to hurt a bit, but I still think it will be temporary, I'm still standing on my Q2 gamble, although that last almost 4% jump was a bit of an unexpected move.

Oh, and almost forgot, if the ordinal spam goes away, then there is an extra 8% off from the fees earned, so make that let's say...9.40 cents?

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on April 12, 2024, 07:16:51 PM

Best of all the difficulty stays fairly flat each jump by the time you are done.

Well... that's what I think too.
The best for miners outside of these large pools. Because for the network, everything ends up getting messed up.

Why maybe they don't do this in every cycle? In recent cycles, the network has not been clogged.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: NeuroticFish on April 12, 2024, 03:05:17 PM

Quote from: joker_josue on April 12, 2024, 02:35:58 PM

They who?
It's difficult to find out who is really clogging up the mempool. Whether the Ordinals crowd or the pools crowd.

I'll guess that he's referring to big miners. The Ordinals crowd has no benefit from clogged mempool nor the tools for doing this systematically.

the miners have enough power to toy with the diff.

the foundry pool has a minimum 20ph amount for miners 200 s19j pros or 100 s21 units

they run 190eh as a pool.

They can simply back off hash rate like this adjustment so far. Then clog the pool with your own transactions, make lots of txs at 8 sats and white list them.
then on the back end of the jump mine the fat blocks like mad.

Best of all the difficulty stays fairly flat each jump by the time you are done.

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: joker_josue on April 12, 2024, 02:35:58 PM

They who?
It's difficult to find out who is really clogging up the mempool. Whether the Ordinals crowd or the pools crowd.

I'll guess that he's referring to big miners. The Ordinals crowd has no benefit from clogged mempool nor the tools for doing this systematically.

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on April 12, 2024, 07:32:12 AM

evidence shows they know how to clog the mempool and that 2023 to now has been the most clogged ever

They who?
It's difficult to find out who is really clogging up the mempool. Whether the Ordinals crowd or the pools crowd.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

fees have run at about 1 btc for the last 100 blocks.

So the new ½ ing would mean 3.125 + 1 = 4.125 which is not exactly a ½ ing

evidence shows they know how to clog the mempool and that 2023 to now has been the most clogged ever

joker_josue

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Quote from: mikeywith on April 12, 2024, 12:00:44 AM

Seems like everyone is trying to outsmart everyone else..

So with this Ordenals trend, everyone wants to record the first block after the halving.

This can be advantageous for miners, as they end up making more money before the cut. Perhaps this allows some miners to obtain a financial cushion that allows them to bear the brunt of the reward reduction.

One thing is certain, the network is getting clogged, and we already have a negative forecast of almost 10% in the next difficulty adjustment.

Quote from: https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   838835 (35 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   89.1477% (180 / 201.91 expected, 21.91 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   83126997340024.61
Current Difficulty:   86388558925171.02
Next Difficulty:   between 77304402617038 and 84690729823373
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.5155% and -1.9653%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 10:09 PM (+3.9236%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 25, 2024 at 5:08 AM (in 12d 21h 19m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 26, 2024 at 3:04 PM (in 14d 7h 15m 1s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 58m 40s and 15d 16h 54m 9s

mikeywith

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So the current difficulty is 86388558925171.02 (86.1T), it's the week before the halving, so for @stompix to be correct in his double down bid, we need to be at > 86.1T by the end of June, I think that was a bit too far stretched for stompy and he is going be to be wrong yet again Cheesy

.

Anyway, this epoch is going to drag a little longer than average, the halving takes place at block 840,000, we are at block 838,822 so 1,178 blocks away from halving and 1,849 blocks away from diff change, the remaining 671 blocks are probably going to take at least 20% more time to finish, in other words, 12 minutes on average, so far the pace is -10%, we are roughly 8 days away from the fireworks.

I believe fees are picking up because

1- the current pace is slow
2- people expect it will keep getting worse as we move further to the halving
3- diff change is going to drag and the remaining days post-halving before diff drops would make the block intervals even higher which would bring fees to higher levels.

Seems like everyone is trying to outsmart everyone else..

Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 3. (Read 3832 times)