Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 2. (Read 7243 times)

solo mining is meh.

and large home mining is done.

but there are spots for a guy with a decent unit or 2 that needs winter heat.

also a few people have very limited cheap power.

say 3 -7kwatts but yeah mining is now industrial level

Merged mining doesn't do that good I'm afraid. I wasnt seeing a good ratio on F2pool, I dont recall the exact value but it was nothing like 2:1 it was a busted flush to be honest.

I think you're probably correct the home mining ship has sailed, the only chance home miners have now is solo/lottery mining.

Even with 100's TH/s available to home mining, you would only benefit if you had completely free electricty.

The total hashrate for Fractal as of right now is about 220EH, that's like 30% of the entire SHA256 hash power that we know exists, that much can't be coming from home miners, and quite honestly anyone who mines Fractal Bitcoin on permissionless mode is just a gambler, they are hopping for the price to spike, otherwise, just Megrge mine it and still make the same BTC + whatever you get from Fractal, it's 2:1 ratio so it isn't all that bad.

As for home miners, they are done for the most part regardless of which coin they mine, the game has changed, and the ship has sailed but some people don't want to see the truth.

Fractal is a dud for the home miner, just not profitable. The only way it would work for the home miner is if there were solo pools for it. Spiderpool suggests they have one in operation but it looks like invite only, so again pointless.

Home miners pushed aside yet again by big farms.

Actually here is an interesting page to watch hashrate estimates for Fractal https://explorer.unisat.io/fractal-mainnet/mining

We should ignore the "Merged Mining" numbers since those mine BTC as well, but look at "Permissionless Mining", we now have 20EH mining Fractal only, and were as high as 34EH, so that's 3% to 4% of the total available hashrate, with the current pace being -6% it could be 3-4% "Fractal" and the rest is just "luck", so it's possible that there is no actually hashrate drop, or maybe it's just a tiny 1% or so.

We shall find out when FB hype is done with.

maybe some relief for mining coming up 🆙

price is up to 63k and we are down 6%

mining will gain

I actually thought about configuring NH so that it can use my GPU to mine, when it would eventually be minimally profitable, to take advantage of these peaks. But, my mining power is very low, I ended up concluding that I wouldn't have much use for it.

Payment swings are pretty normal on Nicehash since the hash rent is used for all sorts of purposes, I still remember not too long ago when they were paying like 7x IIRC for a few days, someone was performing a 51% attack on some Sha256 coin and wanted all the hashrate they could get, and then you get student spikes value in some altcoins where people want to mine that coin and are willing to pay more.

Also, sometimes you get stupid people outbidding each other for exactly no reason, so overall, it's pretty normal, it's also not uncommon for NH to pay less than directly mining to a pool, so anyone wanting to make profit from NH should always monitor the current status and even better, do it with a script that would automatically switch since these swings happen really fast.

It was pre mining of fractal btc. The overpayments have ended.

So, but suddenly they started paying double for hash?
What motivates this type of action? It's not normal, much less something that makes sense at this time.

Is someone trying to lose money or am I not understanding these numbers at all...

But wait a minute, Fractal Bitcoin is supposed to be Merged-Mined & permissionlessly-mined with a ratio of 1:2, that means, there is likely no "hashrate moving", it just pools activating the merged coin or choosing not to, for example, Antpool active that by default but only for PPLNS payment mode, I think that 77% pace was just the result of variance given the small sample of 58 blocks, obviously, if Fractal earns some serious value then mining BTC does too.

I'd also imagine some people might be mining fractal permissionlessly but that won't be anywhere near 200EH that's for sure or else the affect on the current pace would have been great, i'd say it's no more than 50EH maximum, the rest is all just merged-mined with mother BTC.

I'm being a little ironic.
But it will be a crisis for many miners who will be forced to disconnect from the machines

Now we are seeing what the impact will be, of mining being concentrated in super large miners.

well fractal mining has caused a huge hashrate move

https://explorer.unisat.io/fractal-mainnet/mining

200 eh shift at the moment


https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   860876  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   77.0473%  (45 / 58.41 expected, 13.41 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   89471664776970.77                           
Current Difficulty:   92671576265161.06                           
Next Difficulty:   between 75278346923313 and 91735896679906
Next Difficulty Change:   between -18.7687% and -1.0097%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 10:55 PM  (+3.5765%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 25, 2024 at 3:20 AM  (in 13d 18h 41m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 29, 2024 at 3:01 AM  (in 17d 18h 21m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 25m 7s and 18d 4h 5m 44s


and huge spike in nicehash payouts if you are point hash there

https://www.nicehash.com/my/marketplace/SHA256ASICBOOST


1.3 is going rate and it should be 0.69


now this shit has happened before in btc land

and lasts a while so lets see how long this while is.


I was earning 25 usd a day  on nicehash. I was in the red say a 2 dollar loss each day

I am earning 45 usd a day today on nicehash I am in the black say an 18 day profit each day.

By major crisis, what do you mean exactly?

As they say, the bubble is about to burst

Are we close to seeing the first major crisis in the bitcoin world?

12 to go looks like we will be over 92.5t for the diff which is a new record.

the old record was 90.6t

that was a few jumps back.

we will take a hit in earnings and go to about 3.95 cents a th

that is about $7.90 for a s21 which does around 90 kwatts a day  so a 10 cent miner is

$7.90 - $9.00 = $1.10 in the hole 10 cent miner
$7.90 - $8.10 = $0.20 in the hole 9 cent miner

$7.90 - $7.20 = $0.70 plus for a 8 cent miner
$7.90 - $6.30 = $1.60 plus for a 7 cent miner
$7.90 - $5.40 = $2.50 plus for  a 6 cent miner you would have about 1500 days to pay the gear off which is terrible
$7.90 - $4.50 = $3.40 plus for a 5 cent miner you would have about  1100 days to pay the gear off which is poor
$7.90 - $3.60 = $4.30 plus for a 4 cent miner you would have about    860 days to pay the gear off which is meh at best. this is  the worst number I have even seen for 4 cent power roi
$7.90 - $2.70 = $5.20 plus for a 3 cent miner you would pay off in       711 days to pay off the gear. this approaches tolerable




Now I can tell you  3 cent miner includes the mine the infrastructure all gear repairs and all labor.  So miners are pushed really really really hard right now

How about a 2 cent guy

$7.90 - $1.80 = $6.10 plus or a 606 day pay off.

There are not a lot places with 2 cent power including:

the cooling
the labor
the property
the repair to gear.

So we are low enough that mines should contract.

I have to think more places are at 3 cost  then 2 cost. once you add in all other costs.

So uppity needs to happen

84 blocks ahead

+4.6%

I have the same opinion.
Regrettably, I have the feeling there is little debate about it, and people seem to be unworthy about that situation.




I really hadn't thought about it yet. Exchanges also enter that "game" that will become a battle, which may not be very possible.

The community ended up giving much power to those two sides of the barricade, and now it can be hard to take that power out.

I just hope the end result, be something positive for Bitcoin, not negative how to seem to be.

it is how you can or may kill btc.

big exchanges vs big mining groups.

a show down between them is developing.

coinbase used LN on the back end to move btc.

they now use  ai.


follow this path blockchains big fees will have to keep btc alive when blocks are under 0.2 coins

LN still needs the main blockchain so LN will eventually save the day.
nope cause now ai allows no mainchain no ln yet coins move.

so big exchanges are looking to take all coins fully off chain and off ln.

thus almost no fees. hmm kills off btc mining bigly.  so big mining groups are trying to get bigger to fight big exchanges.

this is all going to shake out in a decade or two 2️⃣

Generally, it's a bad thing for BTC, when only a few large entities can afford to mine BTC then

1- Censorship can be more effective:

Since they mine most of the blocks, if they blacklist your address and you want to make a transaction, it could be stuck for days, eventually, even stuck for months depending on the percentage they own

2- Regulation will be easily imposed, large firms can't just ignore the authorities, if the government tells them to do this or that with BTC, they will have to do it.


When people talk about mining pool centralization, I have always said that pool decentralization is far less dangerous than the centralization of hash power ownership, just take a scenario where 80% of the hash rate is owned by 3 U.S firms, they can do anything they want, besides, all it takes to damage the network would be some stupid regulation from the U.S administration.