Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 24. (Read 10593 times)

I am not creating the surveys and the odds of the leading candidates in the prediction markets and sportsbooks hehehe. If Kamala Harris has less personality than a mannequin for you, there are certainly more people who think that you are mistaken hehe.

In any case, it appears that Kamala Harris has increased her small lead on Trump in Polymarket. She is presently predicted to have 52% chance to have the victory and Trump has decreased to 52%.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1723350657000

On who will win the popular vote, the predictors reckon that Kamala has 72% chance to win much of the votes.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024?tid=1723350787269

If these percentages are not manipulated, it appears that Trump must work very much hard to increase his ratings in the polls.

The effect of both candidates is very noticeable, I personally consider that Trump was the first to speak and accept the value of bitcoin, and this alone makes him gain much more leadership, because it is known that he will be supported, and I think he could improve many policies regarding bitcoin in the country and regarding regulations, what I like about Trump is that he has been a millionaire by birth, he has become rich, and he knows what it is to have money, he will not be tempted to take money from the government, and that is good, because the primary reason for corruption in a person in power is money, I think Trump focuses on power and since he is a different person than any politician that is what many like.

If this were sports or any more or less fair competition, it would be the easiest bet on Trump. The problem is that elections can be rigged just like polls. In previous elections, we already saw how mail-in voting suddenly turned the situation around where Trump was leading, something similar could happen this time. To be honest, seeing how dirty the deep state is playing, it begins to seem to me that betting on Harris is easy money (even taking into account that she is crap and I don’t like literally everything about her).

Lots of Pikachu faces from users who don't even know to name more than 5 states in the US or where they are placed that thought Trump screaming Bitcoin would have the same effect as bounty hunting, tweet this and the project is successful!

Meanwhile, ignoring the media because yeah, everything that Trump doesn't like is fake, let's look at crypto markets:
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1723312371420

There may be many other people too who may dislike Trump and his policies and may vote against him.
Also, I think those who do not live in the US, they will want Trump to be the next president and of course in the crypto community Trump is very popular because of his crypto-friendly approach.

However, the outside world have no option to vote for the US presidential elections so their option will not matter in the actual voting in the elections. That is the reason we should not conclude who is the winner of the elections until the voting is done and the results are announced.

LOL While this could be true. The bets we have for Trump seem hanging by a thread already. Damn, how much did this lady got for her campaign funds?
I imagine Billions. Because from what we know this lady has no chance of winning against Trump, not even a chance but money talks.

I can only imagine how troublesome the result would be when fanatics are going to come to put their candidates on the seat. They are going to fight for it regardless of who won the election. The election is going to trigger a lot of normal people to act abnormally. 

I think in that regard you are completely right, therefore when one thinks of Harris one can say that she is an exact copy of the government model that Biden has at the moment, the path with Trump is another, I think it will be to recover certain economic and political aspects of the USA, which is why many people enter and leave the USA however it may be, by land, air, however it may be, but I could say that those policies will be eliminated if Trump comes in as president, and I am sure that Trump will kick out all those who have entered as they have been doing.

I believe it is quite normal for opinion polls to show some important change in the case of Kamala Harris being slightly ahead of Donald Trump, we are talking about the nominee of the Democrat party (Joe Biden) to drop out in favor for their party to have more chances to prevent Donald Trump of becoming the next president of the country, they went to Kamala, a fairly energetic and young person from Joe Biden who was glitching at events and not being as talkative has used to be, it is normal polls start to move on her favor I believe.
On the other hand, polls also not completely represent what is going to happen in the convincing election in November, they have been proven in the past how flawed they are when comes to forcasting reality, if they were right then republicans would have been victorious in the past midterm election (they did not), so in spite of this slight advantage Harris had gotten in the polls, it is very possible for Trump to still defeat her.

I personally do not like Trump, neither as a politician nor as a person, but I cannot deny he still holds a very good chance.

Actually I'm also got surprised about the latest result where it shows that Kamala Harris is now ahead on Trump. Source of this news https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html

Its like their statement regarding the first female president has caught up much emotion that's why maybe there's a change of feeling to the voters in some areas.

But I do hope this is temporary only and Trump will win since provably that in Kamala Harris term we cannot see any growth on crypto since their party is so against with this coin.

Don't know if there's certain like paying those survey firms happening to make create some expression that Harris is winning. But I'm still positive that Trump will win this upcoming election.

Kamala in charge of Trump? Please. That person has less personality than a mannequin.

Polls change all the time, but lets be honest: Kamala hasn't exactly made the world a better place. People who are smart know that the discussions are where the real action starts.

That's where Trump shines. Watch how those odds change when TRump do. Now, everyone can laugh as much as they want. But in September, we'll know who really won. Not the news stories, but the results are what matter.

Are you sure you wanted to reply to this actual post? Because I'm afraid, it doesn't seem what you are saying has any direct link with what STT and I have discussed so far. Notwithstanding, with respect to what you narrated, regardless of what you feel, every country has their electoral law and it must be strictly adhered to. Also, haven't you heard about the Electoral College as part of the US electoral system? If you did, you would know that your point of one state having more population is not necessary as the electoral collection has addressed that. That is why a popular vote of a certain candidate doesn't translate to his/her victory.

If the latest surveys and polls are only fake news, I reckon that this might be a very good opportunity to bet on Trump while his odds are being offered generously by the oddsmakers and the prediction markets.

In any case, after the debate on September 10, we might witness the polls and surveys again change on Trumps side. This Kamala Harris has been shown that she is not a very intelligent person hehehe.



Former President Donald Trump says he has agreed to an offer from ABC News to debate Vice President Kamala Harris on Sept. 10.

Trump said so during a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago Club on Thursday.

"I look forward to the debates because I think we have to set the record straight," he said.

Source https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-agreed-offer-abc-news-debate-harris/story?id=112685962

I can believe it in raw votes that a democratic nominee is ahead in the polls.  Popular vote lying with the standing administration makes some sense, its why I always thought Biden had an advantage.  They just didnt believe in Biden and his cracked facade due to old age & passing the test of the overall population.

It does make some sense that the edges of that voting base who didnt want to vote for Biden, due to age or just a lack of clarity and verve perhaps and now they are again willing to say in a poll I will vote.   Out of sight both parties have their ways of testing with a selected crowd potential support for a candidate.

  If Trump chose Vance without checking numbers on that choice beforehand then he messed up because now you cant take it back.  The Dems definitely will have checked the numbers beforehand for Harris before awarding that job no contest to her.   The actual nomination at this stage is for show, its already a done deal and Biden stepping aside as a candidate this late has possibly not happened before, I think Johnson was in March or April he stood down.

It can still go wrong from here and swing to either party, the main point of analysis will be the debate of which I only expect 1 to occur.  Trump said also NBC and FOX but Im not thinking that occurs.
    The other jitter is markets, the shock and sell off that occurred recently in markets was a decades level high of fear though its dropped back already; we can take away from that markets can still crash before November.
  Possibly the economy is a determining factor still.

There was no hype, even without the assassination attempt, most voters would have chosen Trump. But now I see funny "news" that Harris is already ahead of Trump by 5% in the preference rating. Does anyone believe it? She has never won a primary or any election, she is literally zero in terms of popularity and charisma, but media propaganda convinces people that she is already ahead of Trump. Nonsense. But nevertheless, such brazen manipulations are reflected in the betting/prediction markets.

WHOAH! First time I see Kamala having lower odds than trump! It seems like really it'll be a battleground this year again. States that are undecided and could swing will be really important again.

Just the other day, Joe Rogan, known as the world's most successful podcaster, endorsed Robbert F. Kennedy for president. Amazingly, RFK also got the support of other podcasters that normally have right wing or "alternative" audiences. Tim Pool and even Russell Brand endorsed RFK!

Russel Brand is more left leaning so this shows that definetely RFK is a danger to both major parties. But surely mostly to Trump as most of his endorsements come from the right. Let alone the fact that left leaning voters have more options on the left also.

This surely will have an impact on Rogan's young male audience who were very likely to vote for Trump. And the fact that Trump didn't cut it for someone like Rogan is telling. Trump's campaign has been fumbling to find points to grap on to get people's attention and votes after Biden dropped out.

I am not quite certain on the latest polls and surveys, however, it appears that after the speculations and predictions that the assassination attack on Trump has given him a certainty to win the presidency, this is not true! The Trump hype is decreasing according to the predictors in Polymarket.

I have a prediction that the debate on September will give the advantage again to Trump. If this prediction is wrong, this will be headshaking for the Republicans hehehehehe.  



https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1723171447252

Whatever negatives that are there with Biden will be amplified manyfold in case Harris becomes the President of the United States. Under a possible Harris presidency, millions more of illegal aliens will cross over to the United States. Inflation will be higher, taxes will go up, and there will be more wasteful spending. On the other hand, Trump is someone who understands business and can keep things under his control. Anyway, nowadays elections in US are hardly being fought on the capabilities of candidates. It is now about the right vs left narrative.

I am not sure if it's that fair. Saying that "if we do that then some states will not have a voice" as a defense, means that bigger states do not have their population counted at all. That makes no sense, just because California and New York has a lot of people, does that mean only some of those people should be eligible and the rest is not?

A tiny state has half the votes that they have? When their population is ten times bigger? That makes no sense to me. Popular vote is the way to go, it makes sense and it allows that everyone gets an equal share.

There is no "state" when you are picking the president of the whole nation, that means every single human should be counted as one vote. If republicans trust themselves so much, let it be popular vote, they won't because they know that they will never win the election ever again, they will lose miserably every single time.

If you make it popular vote, it's clear that the nation prefers democrat candidate, republicans won the popular vote like twice or something in over 30 years, hence it should be clear that they are complaining about illegals and all that trying to grasp the last straws to have a possibility to win. They know that the nation doesn't want them by large majority.

That statement regarding to be possible the first female candidate give some statement that she could bring something new to US that's why she's still relevant as big opponent of Trump in their presidential bid.

But aside from that I guess there's no other thing make here stronger so I guess all has been hyped with current issues has been discussed by Trump and many people look forward that everything would really happen under his term. Right now if we look at the current situation we could able to see that Trump is really dominating. But let see on upcoming months if there's changes and candidates should do more better since they really need to have good convincing power to get those votes.

Right now I go with current strongest since I  also thin that Trump has more higher chance to win among the other candidates.

Illegals do vote in American elections. No matter how much the Democrats try to shout you down when you raise this topic, it happens on industrial scale. I don't think that in any other nation in the world, people are allowed to vote without the requirement of a government ID. Here in India, we have a list of 4-5 ID documents that can be used to verify your identity before voting. If you can't present them, then you will not be allowed to vote. As simple as that. But no such mechanism exists in the US, thanks to the Dems.