2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 19.

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Its dead 50/50 me also at this moment because of the great difference between the two candidates from every perspective. Not just the vast difference in politics and policy, but gender, age the attitude and hopes of either is very different.

It makes it interesting at least, Harris isnt even that young but the generation gap might as well be the grand canyon. Trump has the stance of a post ww2 president and Harris is on the total flip side doing Tik Tok dances trying to get the youth vote. The youngest voters just arent reliable as a voting base, Harris will need to win every demographic to get in; if I see her as too reliant on sub 30 voters I will expect a loss.

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the US is the last democratic country using this system,

This electoral college system is never going to change while USA remains the USA. Its done for the very important reason of unity across a country the size of a continent, its just too vast to have it as merely a popular vote and no other adjustment. To alter this system would lose the coherence of various fairly large states within the union and nobody is going to take that risk while either side can win it which is usually true.

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Quote from: Webetcoins on August 26, 2024, 01:14:03 PM

Quote from: stompix on August 26, 2024, 05:05:59 AM

~

I mean think about it, only once in the last 30+ years that they won, 32 or 33 years I believe, so we are talking about republican party literally gone. No congress, no senators, no presidents, while that may or may not be fair, it's clear that they would become a country that is ruled by democrats.

And so be it, if they are stupid to focus only on winning the election and are completely ignoring the entire country just to secure the middle and the southern voters, it's their fault. Since you mentioned 30+ years, who's fault for that is but their own?
The record in difference in the popular vote is held by Republicans, Nixon and Reagan, they won the votes by over 17 and 16 million votes, what changed? The stupidness of focusing on the wrong things and having the wrong candidate.
Put a man like Reagan in charge of the republican party now and he would swipe the floor with all the democrats put together.

Quote from: Webetcoins on August 26, 2024, 01:14:03 PM

I am not saying it's fair, I am just saying that they wanted equal chances, give the republicans a fighting chance, that's why they did it.

Neah, it's not about that, the system has been in place for a long time when there were no Democrats or Republicans, it's an old system that is pretty stupid, its time has passed and the US should drop it like other countries that had one France had this garbage, Argentina had it but they all realized it needs to change.
Unfortunately, I gave change as much chance as changing a race of 2 miles 7 furlongs and 58 yards to 4700 meters. Wink

Back to betting, money coming for Trump on polymarket

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There is a news update being shared in social media mentioning that Mark Zuckerburg who everyone know already is the CEO of Facebook has declared that he regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration in working with to censor information on the coronavirus in his social media platform.

It appears in this letter Zuckerburg has admitted that Facebook was pressured by the government to censor content and they also admitted to stop the circulation of the story about Biden's family and Burisma after it was proven not to be Russian disinformation.

JUST IN - Zuckerberg regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration to censor Covid era information online.

Source https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1828208501925257631?s=12&t=fx2RmsbaS0qNJTJTdpNu2w

Does this imply that Zuckerburg and Facebook has acknowledge this mistake to protect themselves because they speculate that Trump might win the election?

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Quote from: stompix on August 26, 2024, 05:05:59 AM

How is that fair?
It's manipulating the system so that the outcome might not actually reflect the will of the majority! There is nothing fair in it, it's turning voting into a reality show. As for the odds only a few bookies still offer the popular vote, William is at 1.20 for Kamala.

It's not, it's unfair, it was never designed to be fair, it was designed to be close. With this method, there is nearly equal chances that Kamala or Trump could win, if we make it popular vote, or just simply give EC votes based on population, which is basically the same thing, Kamala wins, it's over and there is no elections.

I mean think about it, only once in the last 30+ years that they won, 32 or 33 years I believe, so we are talking about republican party literally gone. No congress, no senators, no presidents, while that may or may not be fair, it's clear that they would become a country that is ruled by democrats.

In fact, there would be no need for elections and just whoever is the nominee for democrats would win, sort of like California marks elections. I am not saying it's fair, I am just saying that they wanted equal chances, give the republicans a fighting chance, that's why they did it. I am explaining the reason, I am not saying it's good, I am just saying "why", I am not even American, so it is not up to me, I just wanted to help clarify why they ignore the majority of the voters, because if they don't, there won't be any elections left.

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Quote from: Webetcoins on August 26, 2024, 04:33:26 AM

Quote from: stompix on August 24, 2024, 03:15:48 PM

~

This works very well for republicans, gives them a chance to win, because if it was popular vote then they would all lose every single time, the odds for Kamala winning popular vote could be as low as 1.50 or even lower, because it's clear that she will, if it was all popular vote then we would have no contest, no republican would ever win. This is why, to keep it interesting and "fair" they made up this, and keep not touching it.

How is that fair?
It's manipulating the system so that the outcome might not actually reflect the will of the majority! There is nothing fair in it, it's turning voting into a reality show. As for the odds only a few bookies still offer the popular vote, William is at 1.20 for Kamala.

Quote from: Webetcoins on August 26, 2024, 04:33:26 AM

If it was adjusted to the population, then we would have states having different points for EC, but it is not touched, while New York grew in size much more, it didn't get much more EC points, and all of that, all that "gerrymandering" and EC, allowed republicans to have a chance.

New York is experiencing the 4th consecutive year of decline in raw population and 9th on the percentage of population compared to the entire country. Anyhow, this whole thing is ridiculous, the US is the last democratic country using this system, and if someone is going to tell me it's more democratic then Switzerland and Norway might want to say something.

Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on August 25, 2024, 01:13:31 PM

because the American people have seen that Trump has given them everything,

Trump has been president for 4 years and the only thing that he gave everyone was the middle finger!
https://prospect.org/politics/trumps-40-biggest-broken-promises/

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Quote from: stompix on August 24, 2024, 03:15:48 PM

More populated states get more voting power anyhow.
The biggest disadvantage of this system is that you can basically lose with not a single vote in the major states, so no votes out of 100 million voters and then win by just 51% in the rest, so in theory, you could win the election by getting less than one-third of the votes.

For example California, Texas and Florida last time:
California   11,110,639   6,006,518
Florida   5,297,045    5,668,731
Texas   5,259,126    5,890,347

Bides got 21,666,810 and 55 electoral votes, Trump 17,565,596 and 67 electoral votes.
Does it look normal?

This works very well for republicans, gives them a chance to win, because if it was popular vote then they would all lose every single time, the odds for Kamala winning popular vote could be as low as 1.50 or even lower, because it's clear that she will, if it was all popular vote then we would have no contest, no republican would ever win. This is why, to keep it interesting and "fair" they made up this, and keep not touching it.

If it was adjusted to the population, then we would have states having different points for EC, but it is not touched, while New York grew in size much more, it didn't get much more EC points, and all of that, all that "gerrymandering" and EC, allowed republicans to have a chance. Do you think that nearly half of the nation would allow something like "we will do this, so you will never win ever again"? Of course not, they know they are the minority, they know that they will lose, so they try to keep whatever they can keep from this system.

LUCKMCFLY

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Quote from: criptoevangelista on August 22, 2024, 12:26:16 PM

I also believe that Trump will win, but the whole movement of the Obama family and the world media may confuse some voters thinking that Kamala Harris may be the favorite to win the presidential elections, this worries me a lot... Anyway, we will follow how things unfold over time... at first I am considering this Obama movement a kind of desperation on the left side of the force.

This will become increasingly heated for the Democratic politicians, because when they do the polls and they go so badly , things will become increasingly uphill for them, because the American people have seen that Trump has given them everything, even almost getting killed, being at that famous rally is something that people see, and people are Filled with feelings, and it is through feelings and being emotional that an election can also be won, because the masses move.

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Quote from: TheGreatPython on August 25, 2024, 12:23:14 PM

Kennedy family is vast and there are more than just Kennedy, most of which loyal to democratic party which Kennedy family was a big part of. However, one thing I can say that this dude was in the democratic party, and he was a nominee and he was disliked like any other nominee ever, imagine being part of a party that literally prefers other parties candidate than you, that's a very very rare situation.

If you ask the democratic party voters, would you prefer ANY candidate from democratic party or Trump, they would all say that any member of their party would be fine over trump, except this dude lol. In the end, we are seeing things picking up speed, which is lovely and I hope that it gets quicker by the day, there was a two week period where not much happened.

Since Robert F Kennedy Jr suspended his independent campaign for the White House and endorsed the candidate of Republican Party last week, a lot have been said by different reporters concerning the news and the effect it could have on the US or polls. Majority of the reports I've accessed suggests that the action isn't gonna stop Kamala Harris of the Democratic party from winning the presidential elections. Personally, I think some of these reports are just mere media wars to undermine the strength of Donald Trump ahead of the polls and if you ask me, I'll say I consider Trump a candidate that's more likely to win the election.

Hispo

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Quote from: OgNasty on August 25, 2024, 03:44:58 AM

^ It seems like everyone is so divided these days that polls are usually done in echo chambers by whoever is in charge of running them. Elon’s recent poll with 80% of people saying they were going to vote for Trump is a good example. I just hope people make the right decision come November. This seems like the most important election of my lifetime.

Division among the people of the United States is something which is specially convenient for some of the country's foes, just saying... Regardless of who wins in November there is still a very long path ahead to make people come together and work for their country shoulder to shoulder. Also, it is normal to believe this election is going to be the most important one in one's lifetime, because of how unprecedented it has shown to be. In the same way people thought the election of Obama was unprecedented in the first place.
I can also tell the betting markets on this election are showing an even higher volume and liquidity than previous elections, more people from abroad are more engaged than usual in this race.
People who would otherwise show no interest in USA politics are keeping an eye on this election...

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Kennedy family is vast and there are more than just Kennedy, most of which loyal to democratic party which Kennedy family was a big part of. However, one thing I can say that this dude was in the democratic party, and he was a nominee and he was disliked like any other nominee ever, imagine being part of a party that literally prefers other parties candidate than you, that's a very very rare situation.

If you ask the democratic party voters, would you prefer ANY candidate from democratic party or Trump, they would all say that any member of their party would be fine over trump, except this dude lol. In the end, we are seeing things picking up speed, which is lovely and I hope that it gets quicker by the day, there was a two week period where not much happened.

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^ It seems like everyone is so divided these days that polls are usually done in echo chambers by whoever is in charge of running them. Elon’s recent poll with 80% of people saying they were going to vote for Trump is a good example. I just hope people make the right decision come November. This seems like the most important election of my lifetime.

bitgolden

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All the polls showing different results, I have seen Harris leading five points, I have seen Trump leading five points, around the same time.

This goes to show you that polls are not to be trusted, odds for betting thankfully shows in most cases a lot better and clearer results but that does not exactly mean that they will be right, it just means what seems to be people actually think.

Saying you will vote for someone on the phone, and actually betting on who you think will win are different things, which is why it is not clear that we can make up who will win just yet but we can say that most recently for the past month or so a lot more people bet on Kamala than Trump, which shows a momentum. Does that means she is going to win?

Of course not, maybe she will say something moronic and lose, or maybe trump as usual will something stupid like he always does and he will lose, we really do not know.

Only thing we have right now is that Kamala has a momentum going for her and that's undeniable, it is clear and we know that it is true. We can see that on the news too, and on twitter and every other place political, she has the momentum, if she wants to win, she needs to build on that momentum to keep going.

stompix

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on August 24, 2024, 12:31:17 PM

The Electoral College is designed to average the voting power by considering the power of the voting population in high and low-populated states. This looks like the best plan to me and I wonder why people would condemn it because if not considered, it would have amounted to giving the more populated states more voting power over the less populated ones.

More populated states get more voting power anyhow.
The biggest disadvantage of this system is that you can basically lose with not a single vote in the major states, so no votes out of 100 million voters and then win by just 51% in the rest, so in theory, you could win the election by getting less than one-third of the votes.

For example California, Texas and Florida last time:
California   11,110,639   6,006,518
Florida   5,297,045    5,668,731
Texas   5,259,126    5,890,347

Biden got 21,666,810 and 55 electoral votes, Trump 17,565,596 and 67 electoral votes.
Does it look normal?

Quote from: BlackBoss_ on August 23, 2024, 10:58:10 PM

I believe that Kennedy truly saw something happened shady and bad in Democratic Party that is a his family's favorite party for many decades.

Or maybe he is the exception, as not every single Kennedy out there is nuts enough to brag about getting a roadkill bear cub from the street and then dump it in Central Park because he thought it was funny.

Anyhow, Stake has 3 states for betting, wonder if they will add more, as long as you still can place bets on candidates with 1:100 you can easily toss there most states too, and some of them are quite interesting, like PA and MI

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Quote from: alani123 on August 24, 2024, 06:45:20 AM

. Still for RRK this is better than nothing.

Better than nothing and still, I will continue to view him as an opportunistic player within this race, he was never serious on having a path towards victory, he was just trying to profit and get whatever we could of his position, in which we could either hurt one or other candidate.
If Trump indeed wins on November and somehow RFK gets a job within his administration, it would be a confirmation for me that there was some.kindnof lead between his campaign and the campaign of Trump for both of them to unfavour the chances of Kamala Harris.

I don't know about you, but all this scenario has started to look like 2016 again, but with the difference of Trump now being a convicted felon and having less charisma than back then, almost a decade ago. If Kamala team is smart enough, they won't commit the same mistakes Hillary did during his presidencial campaign.

EarnOnVictor

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 22, 2024, 12:29:22 AM

The Democrats have always one much of the popular votes since a I began following US elections on Bush vs. Al Gore. However, the creation of the electoral college causes American presidential elections to have different maneuverings and tactics. This might appear to be unfair for some political commentators, however, this also makes the presidential elections much more exciting for the followers and for the people who bet on these candidates heheheh.

That's a thumbs up for the Democratic party, an indication that it is the party wanted by the majority, but I will not join those who would condemn the Electoral College whether it works for the Democratic party or not, besides, it has been used to produce the US president from both top parties.

The Electoral College is designed to average the voting power by considering the power of the voting population in high and low-populated states. This looks like the best plan to me and I wonder why people would condemn it because if not considered, it would have amounted to giving the more populated states more voting power over the less populated ones.

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Im not convinced Trump likes anyone that much, the two candidates will have done a deal. I dont believe it was money, RFK will get a job if Trump gets in maybe in environmental concerns which Trump wishes to cap anyway. Some agreement on policy is why RFK went that way but he is a Maverick anyway not a party man like his more famous relatives.

The Democrat party was never going to back RFK in any way shape or form, he is just too out there. Kayne is more a wild card I cant predict, I wonder if he'll make any run or has given up on this idea. Just fame alone he can get the votes and he also has the money, obviously I dont consider it a serious run. If the election and electoral college are close then factors like that could still matter, the swing states will win this election just like 2016.

There is a common theme in that parts of the Republican party have mentioned the Kennedy family and previous presidents alot in various talk. Kennedy family is definitely Democrat but Arnold Schwarzenegger was married into the family and thats the last big office (Republican California Governor '03-'11) I can remember but anyhow Trump says he will uncover documents think of that what you will but its a big story clearly:
https://news.sky.com/story/trump-promises-to-release-jfk-assassination-documents-after-robert-f-kennedy-jr-backs-him-for-president-13201993

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Quote from: Hispo on August 23, 2024, 07:25:17 PM

Quote from: alani123 on August 23, 2024, 05:12:01 PM

...

I heard he indeed withdrew from the race, which is kind of interesting to me, of I had to guess what happened, he probably ended up having some money from Trump for his endorsement. It makes seem if you think of Trump growing increasingly desperate as the Democratic convention is going on in the USA, as Kamala starts to take over the polls and the discourse of Trump appears to weaken, Trump probably accepted to pay Kennedy a good amount for him dropping out and explicitly endorse him...
Who knows, both Kennedy and Trump were aware that the former going third party was more likely to spoil the chances of Trump than those of Kamala.
Odds betting straight again is a sign Joe Biden did the right thing when he decided to drop out of the race, had he stayed around and keep his campaign, he would have shown to have less chances to win than Kamala, no doubt about it ...

In his speech yesterday, Trump invited RFK to speak live towards his audience at the rally and announced they will be working together once Trump becomes president.
Kennedy is apparently very passionate about chronic disease and peace in Ukraine so he conceded going against trump to achieve these goals.

Some people say ti was obvious that this is what was going to happen from the start given that RFK's campaign was largely promoted by previously pro-trump super PACs. While the ads in the PAC's promotions weren't necessarily in RFK's control, this was telling of his leaning towards the overall Trump campaign. To be honest even though Trump let him speak, he gave him very little time and spoke against Kennedy's move to run as independent even while applauding him. So Trump doesn't seem to like RFK that much but maybe will give him a position out of necessity. Still for RRK this is better than nothing.

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Quote from: BlackBoss_ on August 23, 2024, 10:58:10 PM

His press conference today in which he told that the Democratic Party turned to be corrupted, censored and more.

If a member of the Kennedy family feels this way, then I wonder how the ordinary Americans are feeling. The way mainstream media is manipulating news to favor Kamala, in an ideal situation she should win by a landslide. Somewhere I read that 90% of the media coverage for Kamala is positive, while the same amount of media coverage for Trump is negative. That is a massive advantage for the Democrats. And the irony is that, despite all that Trump is still favored to win by a good margin.

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Quote from: Hispo on August 23, 2024, 07:25:17 PM

I heard he indeed withdrew from the race, which is kind of interesting to me, of I had to guess what happened, he probably ended up having some money from Trump for his endorsement. It makes seem if you think of Trump growing increasingly desperate as the Democratic convention is going on in the USA, as Kamala starts to take over the polls and the discourse of Trump appears to weaken, Trump probably accepted to pay Kennedy a good amount for him dropping out and explicitly endorse him...

It is a big twist in very last months before the President Election but it began with a moment Kennedy decided to leave the Democratic Party and did his rally as an independent presidential nominee. His support for Trump and Republic Party in very decisive months, as he said, is to make sure that Republic Party and Trump will win against Democratic Party and Harris.

Quote

Who knows, both Kennedy and Trump were aware that the former going third party was more likely to spoil the chances of Trump than those of Kamala.
Odds betting straight again is a sign Joe Biden did the right thing when he decided to drop out of the race, had he stayed around and keep his campaign, he would have shown to have less chances to win than Kamala, no doubt about it ...

I believe that Kennedy truly saw something happened shady and bad in Democratic Party that is a his family's favorite party for many decades. His decisions months ago to leave them is a big moment but today event and his announcement to support Trump is a bigger moment. It's time for them to work together for beating Democratic Party and Harris to bring better borders and other things for the Americans.

His press conference today in which he told that the Democratic Party turned to be corrupted, censored and more.

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Quote from: alani123 on August 23, 2024, 05:12:01 PM

...

I heard he indeed withdrew from the race, which is kind of interesting to me, of I had to guess what happened, he probably ended up having some money from Trump for his endorsement. It makes seem if you think of Trump growing increasingly desperate as the Democratic convention is going on in the USA, as Kamala starts to take over the polls and the discourse of Trump appears to weaken, Trump probably accepted to pay Kennedy a good amount for him dropping out and explicitly endorse him...
Who knows, both Kennedy and Trump were aware that the former going third party was more likely to spoil the chances of Trump than those of Kamala.
Odds betting straight again is a sign Joe Biden did the right thing when he decided to drop out of the race, had he stayed around and keep his campaign, he would have shown to have less chances to win than Kamala, no doubt about it ...

Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 19. (Read 10550 times)