2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 20.

wheelz1200

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Quote from: alani123 on August 23, 2024, 05:12:01 PM

After RFK's endorsment it appears as though Kamala VS. Trump odds have come straight again.
There was a brief dip in Trump's chances that put Kamala first for a few days after Kamala's favorability in polls kept performing so well.
Still, in Trump vs. Kamala head to head polling Kamala seems to be performing better, but in many polls where RFK is included, Trump has much better chances interestingly.

Now RFK has announced that he'll be withdrawing from states that Trump needs to win, and endorsing Trump for president:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n15oCfLdmXI

This could be tremendous help to the Trump campaign in this tight race.

Another interesting development is that project 538 released their predictions today:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

This is a website that makes simulations to see who's more likely to win. They made a good prediction for 2020, not so much for 2016. This year maybe RFK could be the factor that flips the election for Trump in spite of Kamala seemingly having more paths to victory at present.

I don't know if I've ever seen 50/40 odds on a presidential campaign this close to election. Going to be a crazy last couple of months. I'm waiting until the debate and then will probably throw some money down after that ends and I can see what the sentiment is like around the country. All the other bets are just free money for the gambling house to rake in on. Sucker bets.

alani123

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After RFK's endorsment it appears as though Kamala VS. Trump odds have come straight again.
There was a brief dip in Trump's chances that put Kamala first for a few days after Kamala's favorability in polls kept performing so well.
Still, in Trump vs. Kamala head to head polling Kamala seems to be performing better, but in many polls where RFK is included, Trump has much better chances interestingly.

Now RFK has announced that he'll be withdrawing from states that Trump needs to win, and endorsing Trump for president:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n15oCfLdmXI

This could be tremendous help to the Trump campaign in this tight race.

Another interesting development is that project 538 released their predictions today:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

This is a website that makes simulations to see who's more likely to win. They made a good prediction for 2020, not so much for 2016. This year maybe RFK could be the factor that flips the election for Trump in spite of Kamala seemingly having more paths to victory at present.

Mr. Magkaisa

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 22, 2024, 12:19:29 PM

Quote from: Hirose UK on August 22, 2024, 08:07:29 AM

Yes you are right, we can all see it now that Kamala Harris is far more dominant in the majority of bookmakers and this is one of the things that really confuses some people.
It is not the first time something like this has happened but we still have to really look in detail and find all the information available regarding the superiority of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump towards the support of the US public.
But what is quite surprising and makes me quite impressed with Kamala Harris is the support given by the former US president Barack Obama, this could be an advantage for Kamala Harris to get more supporters in the upcoming election.
It just that I still believe that Trump will win even though it is only small difference with Kamala Harris vote count.

Not sure whether the support from Obama will do any good for Kamala. Obama was supposed to support the Democrat nominee, and Kamala is regarded as someone who is close to him. At this point, the "No Tossup" map from RealClearPolling shows Trump with 287 electoral college votes, and Kamala with 251. Margin is close and Trump is boosted by his lead in Pennsylvania. In case Kamala manages to take the lead in that state, then the situation will flip. It will be 270 for Kamala vs 268 for Trump.

- It looks like Kamala will be Trump's tough competitor this time. Does this mean there is now a good fight in this election campaign?

because it's possible that those who support Biden have fallen in support of Kamala, right? So Trump's victory is really not guaranteed when the US presidential election comes.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Dave1 on August 22, 2024, 10:24:13 PM

If we look at the odds, Kamala is leading, but it is not over yet for Trump, I mean he has history already of making a comeback in the last couple of weeks prior to the election. But Trump or at least his advisers should really focus on what their platform are, so that the Americans will have a clear understanding instead of Trump going on the public and just attacks Kamala.

Otherwise, we will have the first women President of the United States.

Recent polls have shown Trump in the lead, however a few of them have put Kamala ahead. The latest one from Rasmussen Reports shows Trump ahead by 3 points. Another poll from HarrisX also shows him ahead by 2 points. And I have said this many times. If Trump is leading the popular vote, it is going to be a landslide win for him at the electoral college. Kamala is still enjoying some sort of bum from the Democrat nomination. But that bump is not going to last too long.

Dave1

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Quote from: criptoevangelista on August 22, 2024, 12:26:16 PM

Quote from: Hirose UK on August 22, 2024, 08:07:29 AM

Quote from: Sithara007 on August 21, 2024, 11:19:16 AM

Quote from: avp2306 on August 21, 2024, 06:21:36 AM

Same with u I also put my money on Trump because what I think he have a good chance to win. I ignore the poll result since its like there's something wrong with those result they show to the public.

One of the reasons why I always go with Trump is that he is always underestimated by the bookmakers. This happened twice - first in 2016, and then again in 2020. I have checked odds for Trump in various online gambling sites, and the best I could get was around 1.60. Given the fact that he is leading in states such as Pennsylvania, I believe that the odds should be close to 1.3-1.4. On the other hand, Kamala's campaign is resembling that of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with each passing day. She is going to lose really bad.

Yes you are right, we can all see it now that Kamala Harris is far more dominant in the majority of bookmakers and this is one of the things that really confuses some people.
It is not the first time something like this has happened but we still have to really look in detail and find all the information available regarding the superiority of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump towards the support of the US public.
But what is quite surprising and makes me quite impressed with Kamala Harris is the support given by the former US president Barack Obama, this could be an advantage for Kamala Harris to get more supporters in the upcoming election.
It just that I still believe that Trump will win even though it is only small difference with Kamala Harris vote count.

I also believe that Trump will win, but the whole movement of the Obama family and the world media may confuse some voters thinking that Kamala Harris may be the favorite to win the presidential elections, this worries me a lot... Anyway, we will follow how things unfold over time... at first I am considering this Obama movement a kind of desperation on the left side of the force.

If we look at the odds, Kamala is leading, but it is not over yet for Trump, I mean he has history already of making a comeback in the last couple of weeks prior to the election. But Trump or at least his advisers should really focus on what their platform are, so that the Americans will have a clear understanding instead of Trump going on the public and just attacks Kamala.

Otherwise, we will have the first women President of the United States.

bbc.reporter

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@STT. I very much agree on your attitude on the government and on playing house with their money and their future money. However, this does not occur in America and in their government. This is an occurrence on all of these places where there is a government heheheheheh. But this is reality, wee need to pay taxes. My only issue with this is they take our money but they also use this money to step on our faces? Heheehh this is not right. Why can they not take only our money and play house and give the people their freedom?

STT

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Americans dont have a choice of whether to care, they are paying for the election and the entire government to play house with their money today and your future money every year till you die via debt & deficit budget spending. They'll also send you to war too, so add your life onto that bet.

The money discussion of the odds is purely a sidebet as we're already upto our necks in this game compadre. Arguably as the global reserve currency nation with dollars created then spent altering value elsewhere, you as a citizen anywhere are effected imo.

Shooting & USSS Stories:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13769873/Arizona-shoot-trump-ronald-lee-syrvud.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13767237/Rep-Mike-Waltz-says-isnt-convinced-Donald-Trump-shooter-Thomas-Crooks-acted-assassination-attempt.html

beerlover

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 21, 2024, 03:12:20 AM

I don't support anyone in this upcoming November election, but I am interested in the fate of cryptocurrencies, because now we can already see how the candidates treat cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. Trump has recently become almost a Bitcoin maximalist like Maul Saylor, but he is afraid of offending altcoin supporters as well. We know that his sons are involved in the creation of memecoins, or at least there is such information. How Kamala Harris feels about cryptocurrencies is still unknown. She can't say anything intelligible about it. Although we know that her husband is a crypto enthusiast, this is very little to understand Kamala's worldview.

That's the thought process of almost all the non-Americans here. I mean it is not our nation so we do not really care all that much who wins, but we worry about crypto. I do not "support" Trump because why would I, I am not American and I do not give a damn about trump, and just because he supports crypto, doesn't mean I will start to care about him, and looking at Kamala, that is someone I heard for the very first time ever when she was the VP pick last election, so why would I care about her, and I hope she doesn't go mad on crypto if she wins, that's all I care about, nothing more. Election at USA is not something we care about, there are billions like me, we do not care, and there are millions who only care about what will happen to crypto.

criptoevangelista

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In ₿ we trust

Quote from: Hirose UK on August 22, 2024, 08:07:29 AM

Quote from: Sithara007 on August 21, 2024, 11:19:16 AM

Quote from: avp2306 on August 21, 2024, 06:21:36 AM

Same with u I also put my money on Trump because what I think he have a good chance to win. I ignore the poll result since its like there's something wrong with those result they show to the public.

One of the reasons why I always go with Trump is that he is always underestimated by the bookmakers. This happened twice - first in 2016, and then again in 2020. I have checked odds for Trump in various online gambling sites, and the best I could get was around 1.60. Given the fact that he is leading in states such as Pennsylvania, I believe that the odds should be close to 1.3-1.4. On the other hand, Kamala's campaign is resembling that of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with each passing day. She is going to lose really bad.

Yes you are right, we can all see it now that Kamala Harris is far more dominant in the majority of bookmakers and this is one of the things that really confuses some people.
It is not the first time something like this has happened but we still have to really look in detail and find all the information available regarding the superiority of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump towards the support of the US public.
But what is quite surprising and makes me quite impressed with Kamala Harris is the support given by the former US president Barack Obama, this could be an advantage for Kamala Harris to get more supporters in the upcoming election.
It just that I still believe that Trump will win even though it is only small difference with Kamala Harris vote count.

I also believe that Trump will win, but the whole movement of the Obama family and the world media may confuse some voters thinking that Kamala Harris may be the favorite to win the presidential elections, this worries me a lot... Anyway, we will follow how things unfold over time... at first I am considering this Obama movement a kind of desperation on the left side of the force.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Hirose UK on August 22, 2024, 08:07:29 AM

Yes you are right, we can all see it now that Kamala Harris is far more dominant in the majority of bookmakers and this is one of the things that really confuses some people.
It is not the first time something like this has happened but we still have to really look in detail and find all the information available regarding the superiority of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump towards the support of the US public.
But what is quite surprising and makes me quite impressed with Kamala Harris is the support given by the former US president Barack Obama, this could be an advantage for Kamala Harris to get more supporters in the upcoming election.
It just that I still believe that Trump will win even though it is only small difference with Kamala Harris vote count.

Not sure whether the support from Obama will do any good for Kamala. Obama was supposed to support the Democrat nominee, and Kamala is regarded as someone who is close to him. At this point, the "No Tossup" map from RealClearPolling shows Trump with 287 electoral college votes, and Kamala with 251. Margin is close and Trump is boosted by his lead in Pennsylvania. In case Kamala manages to take the lead in that state, then the situation will flip. It will be 270 for Kamala vs 268 for Trump.

Hirose UK

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 21, 2024, 11:19:16 AM

Quote from: avp2306 on August 21, 2024, 06:21:36 AM

Same with u I also put my money on Trump because what I think he have a good chance to win. I ignore the poll result since its like there's something wrong with those result they show to the public.

One of the reasons why I always go with Trump is that he is always underestimated by the bookmakers. This happened twice - first in 2016, and then again in 2020. I have checked odds for Trump in various online gambling sites, and the best I could get was around 1.60. Given the fact that he is leading in states such as Pennsylvania, I believe that the odds should be close to 1.3-1.4. On the other hand, Kamala's campaign is resembling that of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with each passing day. She is going to lose really bad.

Yes you are right, we can all see it now that Kamala Harris is far more dominant in the majority of bookmakers and this is one of the things that really confuses some people.
It is not the first time something like this has happened but we still have to really look in detail and find all the information available regarding the superiority of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump towards the support of the US public.
But what is quite surprising and makes me quite impressed with Kamala Harris is the support given by the former US president Barack Obama, this could be an advantage for Kamala Harris to get more supporters in the upcoming election.
It just that I still believe that Trump will win even though it is only small difference with Kamala Harris vote count.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: STT on August 21, 2024, 02:41:11 PM

Republicans didnt choose Trump especially, unlike the Democrat party who told their voters who they will be nominating and voting for it was the other way round with the Republican party. The cart is leading the donkey or is it the elephant I forget but either way they have become polar opposites now.

I agree before it was just two old white men sabre rattling but thats been the race almost every time for hundreds of years, now we need to witness does USA once again want to break those chains and vote differently. The bias has to favor Trump for now.

Quote

Kamala's campaign is resembling that of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with each passing day. She is going to lose really bad.

That is the contrast Im looking at but is the campaign itself able to self examine and alter course to avoid wrecking on the same rocks that caught Clintons attempt. On the night 2016 of the election count they declared early Clinton had won, nobody had a clue; dont take the polls as gospel.
[She did win the popular count but not the college]

The Democrats have always one much of the popular votes since a I began following US elections on Bush vs. Al Gore. However, the creation of the electoral college causes American presidential elections to have different maneuverings and tactics. This might appear to be unfair for some political commentators, however, this also makes the presidential elections much more exciting for the followers and for the people who bet on these candidates heheheh.

Trump has again increased his lead with 1% on Polymarket.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1724300978485

Also, the vice presidential candidate of Robert F. Kennedy has declared that they might support the Donald Trump.

Speculation that Kennedy could abandon his presidential bid intensified after his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, revealed on a podcast on Tuesday he was considering that option – and considering endorsing Trump, the Republican nominee.

Source https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/21/rfk-jr-dropping-out-report

LUCKMCFLY

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Quote from: wheelz1200 on August 17, 2024, 12:20:10 AM

Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on August 16, 2024, 11:40:18 PM

Quote from: STT on August 15, 2024, 01:25:52 PM

The way it was described to me was a Harris win so long as she does not wear out her new comer advantage, even though she has been VP for these past years to be a serious contender is new I guess. Like anyone in politics she has her enemies and just generally anyone famous will have bad things written about them sooner or later, can she last as the 'new girl' till November.

However I think its more about Trump and his near death experience. That is a definite advantage and swings votes towards him as literally a leader under fire who needs support, some especially on the right will respond to that and vote for him no doubt. So can that advantage last till November or will any post assassin gains be zero by then.

At least in the middle ground votes, some will decay to neutral or swap sides thats why they are the swing voters after all.
If theres an hour glass on either on either, its probably mostly Trump. I do think his odds now as are peaked & favorable as they can be, he must win that debate to have a chance; if they were to live fact check everything he says and on live TV then he is cooked Tongue

It's just that Trump has been through more extreme things than Kamala, Kamala is just a replacement option for Biden, and Biden was doing badly, he was losing against Trump, I understand all the analysis that can be done within the leadership of the Democrats and the Republicans, but what is visible does not need glasses, there is reality, and as you say, Trump's experience having been so close to death is something that makes Americans believe that he is a committed guy and that he only cares about his nation, plus the majority are disappointed with Biden and his management, that does not help at all.

Unfortunately I think you are right when talking about trump being so close to death. But talk about recency biased. This was a man making a speech. John McCain while serving his country was a POW for over 5 years, with a lot of that time in solitary confinement. He didn't end up winning but somehow the American people think this is different. I'm not saying right wrong or indifferent but those 2 events don't remotely come close together so why would trump get in just because of that?

I think that McCain's thing is something that is very appropriate to bring up so that most people have to recognize it and well, they are people who have to be recognized, but I think that now what stays most in people's minds and psyches is the most recent, and the most recent is what is most in people's minds, it is the most viral and since social networks make any event fly, this influences a lot, and even more in politics because I consider that on a global level it has a unique significance.

STT

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Republicans didnt choose Trump especially, unlike the Democrat party who told their voters who they will be nominating and voting for it was the other way round with the Republican party. The cart is leading the donkey or is it the elephant I forget but either way they have become polar opposites now.

I agree before it was just two old white men sabre rattling but thats been the race almost every time for hundreds of years, now we need to witness does USA once again want to break those chains and vote differently. The bias has to favor Trump for now.

Quote

Kamala's campaign is resembling that of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with each passing day. She is going to lose really bad.

That is the contrast Im looking at but is the campaign itself able to self examine and alter course to avoid wrecking on the same rocks that caught Clintons attempt. On the night 2016 of the election count they declared early Clinton had won, nobody had a clue; dont take the polls as gospel.
[She did win the popular count but not the college]

Silberman

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Quote from: SquallLeonhart on August 21, 2024, 12:23:45 PM

Quote from: Poker Player on August 19, 2024, 01:35:35 AM

I've heard a conspiracy theory on the subject, but since I don't quite believe it, I'll spare you. The normal thing is that there are people who hate Trump and vote for any Democratic candidate instead of him but that many millions are there?

Also, to me Kamala doesn't seem very articulate speaking.

I would still put my money on Trump but I expect any outcome, more so when the election is decided in a few swing states.

That's literally the reason. I mean you can search all the heavy democrat places, like for example Reddit has a ton of democrats, just check the politics subreddit and you will see them and why they are voting.

Number one reason is because they hate Trump and they would vote for anyone, over 70+ million people would have voted for even Biden when he wasn't able to walk properly or talk properly, Biden wasn't like very down, he was still competing, and that's with a dude who can't even rule over a cheeseburger.

Now that they have someone who is at least a bit decent? A judge nevertheless? Against the criminal nominee on the other side that they hate? That alone is good enough and I think she is going to win not because they like her, but because they hate him. This was the case in 2020 too, nobody cared it was Biden, it could have been Pete, Kamala, Bernie, anyone really and they would have still voted for them and still win them the election, same here.

I really think that both the democrats and republicans made a mistake when they picked Biden and Trump respectively for this election, now the democrats realized their mistake and picked Harris, but the republicans are stuck with Trump, and I say this because there are a lot of people out there that do not agree with the policies of Harris but they hate Trump, so they will vote for her anyway, however if the republicans had picked anyone other than Trump I think they would have a comfortable lead by now, since the economic policies being pushed forward by them make more sense than what the democrats are proposing.

SquallLeonhart

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Quote from: Poker Player on August 19, 2024, 01:35:35 AM

I've heard a conspiracy theory on the subject, but since I don't quite believe it, I'll spare you. The normal thing is that there are people who hate Trump and vote for any Democratic candidate instead of him but that many millions are there?

Also, to me Kamala doesn't seem very articulate speaking.

I would still put my money on Trump but I expect any outcome, more so when the election is decided in a few swing states.

That's literally the reason. I mean you can search all the heavy democrat places, like for example Reddit has a ton of democrats, just check the politics subreddit and you will see them and why they are voting.

Number one reason is because they hate Trump and they would vote for anyone, over 70+ million people would have voted for even Biden when he wasn't able to walk properly or talk properly, Biden wasn't like very down, he was still competing, and that's with a dude who can't even rule over a cheeseburger.

Now that they have someone who is at least a bit decent? A judge nevertheless? Against the criminal nominee on the other side that they hate? That alone is good enough and I think she is going to win not because they like her, but because they hate him. This was the case in 2020 too, nobody cared it was Biden, it could have been Pete, Kamala, Bernie, anyone really and they would have still voted for them and still win them the election, same here.

Sithara007

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Quote from: avp2306 on August 21, 2024, 06:21:36 AM

Same with u I also put my money on Trump because what I think he have a good chance to win. I ignore the poll result since its like there's something wrong with those result they show to the public.

One of the reasons why I always go with Trump is that he is always underestimated by the bookmakers. This happened twice - first in 2016, and then again in 2020. I have checked odds for Trump in various online gambling sites, and the best I could get was around 1.60. Given the fact that he is leading in states such as Pennsylvania, I believe that the odds should be close to 1.3-1.4. On the other hand, Kamala's campaign is resembling that of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with each passing day. She is going to lose really bad.

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Quote from: Poker Player on August 19, 2024, 01:35:35 AM

Quote from: pawel7777 on August 17, 2024, 06:04:03 PM

OK, what went wrong for Trump since the failed assassination attempt, when he was said to be guaranteed a win?
I just checked the odds and he's an underdog again with odds at x2.10 compared to Kamala's x1.73.
I don't expect Kamala to have any organic support and all of her voting base would be hard democrats electorate (who would vote for any Democratic nominee) and negative Trump voters.
Do you think polls are wrong, or has Trump lost the momentum that badly?

I've heard a conspiracy theory on the subject, but since I don't quite believe it, I'll spare you. The normal thing is that there are people who hate Trump and vote for any Democratic candidate instead of him but that many millions are there?

Also, to me Kamala doesn't seem very articulate speaking.

I would still put my money on Trump but I expect any outcome, more so when the election is decided in a few swing states.

Surprising to see that one, although there would be a changes and Kamala did something great to take a lead against Trump. But don't see any mind blowing actions done by Democrats.

I try to search to know more about Harris https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris_2024_presidential_campaign she have good portfolio brought in his candicy.

Maybe for now that catch the heart of some people. But I guess later on maybe they realize that they need a dominant President and I think Trump is really fit for that seat.

Same with u I also put my money on Trump because what I think he have a good chance to win. I ignore the poll result since its like there's something wrong with those result they show to the public.

Julien_Olynpic

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I don't support anyone in this upcoming November election, but I am interested in the fate of cryptocurrencies, because now we can already see how the candidates treat cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. Trump has recently become almost a Bitcoin maximalist like Maul Saylor, but he is afraid of offending altcoin supporters as well. We know that his sons are involved in the creation of memecoins, or at least there is such information. How Kamala Harris feels about cryptocurrencies is still unknown. She can't say anything intelligible about it. Although we know that her husband is a crypto enthusiast, this is very little to understand Kamala's worldview.

BlackBoss_

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Quote from: Poker Player on August 19, 2024, 01:35:35 AM

I would still put my money on Trump but I expect any outcome, more so when the election is decided in a few swing states.

Trump might win or lose this election but my belief and support goes to him, not Kamala Harris. I feel that Trump can win in most of swing states because with latest revealing truth on hidden things in last four years, about Biden, his administration and Kamala Harris as well as what happened recent months and latest days around DNC, people who live in swing states have more source of information to feel danger of Kamala Harris and her policy.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 20, 2024, 09:18:28 PM

@Poker Player. She appears to be drunk on alcohol when she speaks hehehe. There are also different videos and articles criticizing her for using different accents in her speeches. If she is in the deep south, she uses deep southern accent. If she is in the midwest, she uses midwestern accent. I very much want to listen to her speech in New Jersey to witness her New Jersey accent hehehehe.

I did not know too much about her but latest weeks, since the torch pass from Biden to Harris, I watched more videos on Kamala Harris and my feeling is I can not trust her. Her speech is not convincing with me and I know both Harris and Trump don't say truth, my belief still goes to Trump, not Harris. The way she speeches is very hard to trust and what happened in the USA recent years with its border policy is very bad. What her party did recent years to censor information and centralized control citizens very arbitrarily. These things make me feel that Harris is not a better choice for a next President position in the USA.

Quote

Also, this is good news for the supporters of the Donald Trump. He has the lead again after the opening hype on Kamala.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1724203015124

There are enough time for Trump and Harris to make changes in their rallies and coming election but for now, it's good news for Donald Trump and his supporters.

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