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Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 26. (Read 15349 times)

hero member
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September 22, 2024, 08:25:34 AM
Harris again challenged him to a second debate in collaboration with CNN slated to happen in October which Trump blatantly rejected, he already knows his limit, despite too many lies.Cheesy The event continues to prove those who believed Harris was no match for Trump wrong and I already know who would win the popular vote even if she doesn't win the electoral college like Hillary Clinton.
Lol! Trump is still whining about Swift supporting Harris and losing his debate pretty convincingly which is why it makes sense as to why he rejected another debate. His desperation led to the whole fake assassination crap recently.

Anyway, as Pope Francis himself mentioned, voters should choose the lesser of both evils which is obviously Harris in my opinion.
hero member
Activity: 1064
Merit: 501
September 22, 2024, 07:37:07 AM
The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me. Debate made sure that republicans may not go out to vote like they normally would. It didn't made any Trump voter become Kamala voter or vice versa, that never happens, these debates help with candidates either get their voters turn out or not, and I think Kamala voters will come out and trump voters will not come out and that's the most important part.

I believe that we are going to see this change one way or another. I know that it is going to be something that will take a bit of a time and we will have to wait until the elections to be sure but I think Kamala will win. It will be a very close race I am sure of that, everything will be decided by a few states once again, and a very close margin in those states as well.


Link to how the polls result was gotten:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

From the national polling average conducted by BBC, Harris is leading Trump with few numbers, not as a big margin as you have stated. No doubt, it was the debate that was conducted that gave Harris the small lead.

In all the 50 states that made up the US, both the Republican and Democrat party candidates would come out and vote in mass for their choice candidates not because of who wins the debate but because of who they feel can make America great and take her to great heights of excellence. However, I believe that both candidates stand a chance of winning the November 5 presidential election
legendary
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September 22, 2024, 06:54:56 AM
You are confusing economic positioning and political positioning. Look at the Nolan or Eysenck model. The problem is that communists always come to power with "good" slogans and they promise the crowd what it wants (even if they don't believe it themselves), but after they consolidate their power, their rule turns into a dictatorship.

You're looking at 12 years out of 16 of democrat rule right now.
Does America look like anything communist to you?

Exactly yes. I don't know how old you are, but if you are old enough (and have a good memory), you should see the trend. The US is turning from a meritocracy and a free country into a dump where everyone is concerned with "equality of outcome" (which is fucking inconsistent with meritocracy), hatred of the rich, attempts to limit freedom of speech and gun ownership.

Let's make an experiment here and make a topic about corporations in the US you will see that instantly everyone who was calling the Democrats socialist and communist suddenly makes a 180 degree turn and says that corporations own everything in the US, we are all slaves, rich get richer and so on, that socialism is needed!  Grin
Wanna bet on it?

Don't you think that imaginary fantasies cannot be an argument?  Roll Eyes

Look at the history of Russia, when communists came to power, in some issues they were the most progressive in the world at that time - getting rid of religious oppression, removing sexual taboos, progressive attitude to the racial issue, etc.

What alternative history did you read?
When communists came to power (via a civil war) they nationalized everything, introduced the war communism economy movement, collectivization that ended with the famine of 1921, the genocide of Kulaks, and so on.
If you're thinking of the Declaration of Rights that was a joke, probably Lenin and Stalin were laughing their ass out while writing that, the first thing Lenin did was expropriate all churches and declare that religion is opium and destructive to society. Racial stuff, let's not even go there!

LMAO  Grin
The Holodomor and the destruction of the kulaks (normal peasants) was the beginning of the 30s. After the civil war, the communists, while maintaining political power, introduced the NEP - "new economic policy" (essentially old capitalism).
What don't you understand about the words "freedom from religious oppression"?
If you don't understand, then read the criminal code that was in place under the tsar who was overthrown by the communists and under which people were slaves of the church.
As for the racial issue - will you deny that in the USSR it was solved 50-60 years earlier than in the USA? Officially segregation in the USA was banned only in 1964, hahaha, I hate communists but here they were much more progressive.
Friend, I'm from Russia, so I just find it funny when you write about history that you don't know.

As for corporations, they are anti-market by nature: they have won the competition and now want to secure their victory. They advocate regulation, licensing, quotas, and other things that raise the threshold for entering the market. Therefore, corporations try to merge with the state machine (against people). These are the basics.

You still haven't explained how an economy run by corporations is a communist one!  Cheesy
But let's go one further, if those corporations are bad as you say, why aren't you supporting democrats taxing them more and you're supporting Trump who wants tax cuts for them?  It's a bit hard for me to understand why you want to take the side of the ones who are agsint the people, this in your own words!  Grin

You asked a question, I gave you an answer.


And speaking of communism, why are corporations endorsing Kamala if she wants to turn the US a commie state?  Grin

The fact that you don’t understand the answer is a problem of understanding.
You yourself write that it is difficult for you to understand why corporations support additional taxes (which further increases the price of entry into the market and cements their position of dominance). I have already written about this, just reread it.
sr. member
Activity: 1022
Merit: 363
September 22, 2024, 04:45:52 AM
Meanwhile, if anyone is willing to bet there is a huge difference (at this scale) between bookies for this event
Normal odds for betting on the winner at stake:




And some odds that probably nobody wants at Betfair and PP:

These odds above speak volumes already and most importantly speak my mind on this presidential race, it will be keenly contested and no more like before when Trump had the undue advantage. The table is seriously turning in Harris's favour and the last debate is another turning point in the event. Although Trump never admitted to Harris winning, who cares, people already scored them fairly and I've never seen anyone say/write that Trump won.

Harris again challenged him to a second debate in collaboration with CNN slated to happen in October which Trump blatantly rejected, he already knows his limit, despite too many lies.Cheesy The event continues to prove those who believed Harris was no match for Trump wrong and I already know who would win the popular vote even if she doesn't win the electoral college like Hillary Clinton.

I guess people is more into equality which Harris is campaigning rather than thinking about adapting cryptocurrency which always been talk about by Trump, that's why it show up to the result that Harris is more dominant than Trump.

I like Trump to win to see if there's great changes that will happen towards the adaption of crypto in US. But if faith didn't let it happen and Harris will be declared as the winner then lead America then I guess the only thing can look forward is hopefully she will not became the same like Biden which he is so Anti Crypto. But also for sure my bet status will change since I like to bet on candidate that higher chance to win. So let see how everything goes especially each statistics shown.
hero member
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
September 22, 2024, 04:25:41 AM
Meanwhile, if anyone is willing to bet there is a huge difference (at this scale) between bookies for this event
Normal odds for betting on the winner at stake:




And some odds that probably nobody wants at Betfair and PP:

These odds above speak volumes already and most importantly speak my mind on this presidential race, it will be keenly contested and no more like before when Trump had the undue advantage. The table is seriously turning in Harris's favour and the last debate is another turning point in the event. Although Trump never admitted to Harris winning, who cares, people already scored them fairly and I've never seen anyone say/write that Trump won.

Harris again challenged him to a second debate in collaboration with CNN slated to happen in October which Trump blatantly rejected, he already knows his limit, despite too many lies.Cheesy The event continues to prove those who believed Harris was no match for Trump wrong and I already know who would win the popular vote even if she doesn't win the electoral college like Hillary Clinton.
hero member
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September 22, 2024, 03:04:34 AM
The Donkey dick heads will try to cheat and steal the election any way possible even if it means serving Trumps head on a silver platter which is exactly what they want so that America can continue going down the tubes and the world goes into chaos mode, especially China and Russia are going to push their boarders boundries and bank accounts to new all time and become the dominant force in this world. Power rules over the evil minds of men & unlimited money gets them to their destination.  
I don't want to take this seriously because it is already in the realm of politics and the purpose of the discussion may not be that far. Yes, maybe the US is the country that is in power now because it talks a lot about things that make this country stronger. Elections will continue to exist even if the winner is the person who cheated because constitutionally the office cannot be vacant. Whatever revolution is considered good only the US knows and they want what kind of leader they want because we are in another realm as connoisseurs or just discussing.
full member
Activity: 980
Merit: 237
September 22, 2024, 01:11:16 AM
The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me.
I agree.

That debate really helped her a lot and that's why she's leading right now. Now, we see the polls are changing. When Trump was tempted with an assassination, he reached the ceiling with the polls.

It's interesting that we're seeing a change here and with less than 2 months left, what's more to come and see.

The thing with Trump's poll numbers and also the betting markets is it is seems Trump has already reached a ceiling or a maximum number/percentage of people who favours him as the winner. An assassination attempt is one of the craziest things which could happen during a presidential campaign and it would certainly make the politician the perpetual favorite for what it is left in the run for the presidency, but with Trump is different, he has already been gone through two assassinations attempts, he has fund-raised a lot of money and it is willing to even go along the cryptocurrency community to reach new levels of popularity, and yet he has not managed to do so beyond what we saw with the first attempt against his life. It speaks volume on the amount of people who blindly follows him and those who do not.
People will blindly follow anyone that seems to speak the kind of language they understand, and know how to fight for what is theirs and that is what i have seen with Trump's campaign so far, he has been more than able to do a lot in terms of convincing the American citizens, the outside world, the cryptocurrency world too, that he has got their back and would make way to allow the use of cryptocurrency as much as he would launch his own crypto currency and make policies to favor cryptocurrency markets.
Whatever be the bet that is making people shake their heads, it is nothing but a format to deceive onlookers and put the presidential ticket in the rightful hands of Trump.

Although I have a good feeling about crypto currency being a bullet point in his campaign, it still doesn't matter much if he wins or losses the election bets, mostly as the outcome could be responsible for Bitcoin or Etherum rise or drop in price as well as other crypto prices.
legendary
Activity: 1372
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September 21, 2024, 10:07:50 PM
As a guy who has lived in true communist dictatorship, please ELI5 me how progressive who are pro-abortion, pro- alphabet people and pro immigration, things that would have earned you 20 years of correctional hard labor back there are communist! You do know that most of Trumps politics are closer to being communist than what Democrats propose, right?

Come on, that's all we need. Earlier fellow alani123 saying Kamala is right wing and now you saying Trump's policies are closer to communism. The world turned upside down.

Do you know that the leftist movement has changed or have you stuck with what Lenin did?

Since the 70's and especially when the Berlin Wall fell, as the left could not defend the communist economic system because of the obvious economic disaster, they started focusing on gays, the climate, women's rights or immigrants.

And speaking of communism, why are corporations endorsing Kamala if she wants to turn the US a commie state?  Grin

They will have their reasons but you just look at what has happened to a lot of businesses in states like LA or NY, that make policies like those advocated by Kamala, namely, they have fled to states that make policies like those advocated by Trump, like Florida or Tennessee.






STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
September 21, 2024, 06:59:57 PM
The impossible thing to measure is the diversity of the support given, a broad range is required to tip the various swing states and thats all that matters.  Trump increasing his support with Republican voters or Harris increasing even more the popular vote in Cali and New York is not going to alter the balance.

 We knew 6 months ago or more that the big votes are there for both parties in their own back yard, alteration there is less important.   Really its capturing the middle ground that matters, did Trump getting shot really alter those in the middle.  Also those who never bother to vote, if they turn up then it can alter everything.

A point I think more important is Harris continuing to harass Trump for a 2nd debate.  He has reason enough to refuse, he has completed 2 debates just the prior was with Biden but thats enough excuse.  However the real reason Harris presses on especially is to send a message with the voters, same as everything they do in politics its for show. Harris wants to show Trump is backing off from the fight, he is on the run; she cant allow him to sell or profit from the narrative of fighting off armed assailants.

   It is exceptional that Trump won previous with no real public service in office, coming under fire slightly gains him that idea of fighting the good fight hence Democrats need to paint him as a coward fleeing the debate challenge etc.   They will continue on that way imo.
legendary
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September 21, 2024, 06:50:27 PM
I am not from the US either, but nevertheless it seems to me that the outcome of the elections will directly affect me. With all the shortcomings of the US, it is the most free and progressive (not in the sense of fucking liberals with their million genders, but in the old sense) country, if it falls into socialism/communism/Marxism, then the whole world will become worse. The Bitcoin issue is in tenth place in importance here.

As a guy who has lived in true communist dictatorship, please ELI5 me how progressive who are pro-abortion, pro- alphabet people and pro immigration, things that would have earned you 20 years of correctional hard labor back there are communist! You do know that most of Trumps politics are closer to being communist than what Democrats propose, right?
 
And speaking of communism, why are corporations endorsing Kamala if she wants to turn the US a commie state?  Grin
~

You are confusing economic positioning and political positioning. Look at the Nolan or Eysenck model. The problem is that communists always come to power with "good" slogans and they promise the crowd what it wants (even if they don't believe it themselves), but after they consolidate their power, their rule turns into a dictatorship. Look at the history of Russia, when communists came to power, in some issues they were the most progressive in the world at that time - getting rid of religious oppression, removing sexual taboos, progressive attitude to the racial issue, etc. But in the end, for some fucking reason, the country ended up not in a fairy tale, but in a concentration camp.

As for corporations, they are anti-market by nature: they have won the competition and now want to secure their victory. They advocate regulation, licensing, quotas, and other things that raise the threshold for entering the market. Therefore, corporations try to merge with the state machine (against people). These are the basics.

You are confusing the actual political idea of communism and communism used in political rhetoric in hopes to swing voters who do not understand what communism is.

legendary
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September 21, 2024, 06:06:55 PM
The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me.
I agree.

That debate really helped her a lot and that's why she's leading right now. Now, we see the polls are changing. When Trump was tempted with an assassination, he reached the ceiling with the polls.

It's interesting that we're seeing a change here and with less than 2 months left, what's more to come and see.

The thing with Trump's poll numbers and also the betting markets is it is seems Trump has already reached a ceiling or a maximum number/percentage of people who favours him as the winner. An assassination attempt is one of the craziest things which could happen during a presidential campaign and it would certainly make the politician the perpetual favorite for what it is left in the run for the presidency, but with Trump is different, he has already been gone through two assassinations attempts, he has fund-raised a lot of money and it is willing to even go along the cryptocurrency community to reach new levels of popularity, and yet he has not managed to do so beyond what we saw with the first attempt against his life. It speaks volume on the amount of people who blindly follows him snd those who do not.
hero member
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September 21, 2024, 05:13:22 PM
The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me.
I agree.

That debate really helped her a lot and that's why she's leading right now. Now, we see the polls are changing. When Trump was tempted with an assassination, he reached the ceiling with the polls.

It's interesting that we're seeing a change here and with less than 2 months left, what's more to come and see.
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1300
September 21, 2024, 04:58:47 PM
The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me. Debate made sure that republicans may not go out to vote like they normally would. It didn't made any Trump voter become Kamala voter or vice versa, that never happens, these debates help with candidates either get their voters turn out or not, and I think Kamala voters will come out and trump voters will not come out and that's the most important part.
The debate 100% helped her chances regardless of whether anyone are willing to believe it or not, but I feel it was a small boost. She received a bigger boost thanks to Swift siding with her in my opinion.

A powerful female siding with another powerful female is a proper combo. Trump tweeting childish statements against Swift didn't exactly help him either.

There have been observations that have shown that there has been virtually no tipping after Taylor Swift endorsed her, on the contrary, this debate has boosted her chances and actually puts her sometimes ahead according to Polymarket stats. If the second debate does happen - and I don't think it's possible - then she could theoretically pull ahead definitively
full member
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September 21, 2024, 03:48:01 PM
It's funny how Trump calls Kamala a communist.

...

For most of the world, Kamala isn't even center left, she's right wing.

Of course, everybody knows that proposing price controls, which has not worked since the edict of Diocletian, is a typical right-wing idea. So is stifling the private sector by increasing regulations and taxes.

Another right-wing idea, advocated by the supporters of the Austrian school, is CBDCs, which allow total control by the state of every transaction of individuals.

Not to mention other ideas such as that children do not belong to the parents but “to the community”.

Think twice because you have bought into the overton window so much that you are talking garbage.
While I am not the person you responded to, I just wanted to point out that even right wing have price controls in place at Europe, I do not know much about Asian politics so I can't really talk about that part of the world, but in Europe there are some things that has price control, like medicine for example. Americans typically say stuff like "if healthcare becomes free then who will pay for it!" and think that their taxes will be a lot and they will pay 4 trillion dollars for medical bills.

In reality, you just put price cap to medicine and also hospital bills, that way it's no longer 4 trillion dollars but just 500-800 billion dollars because the price is capped and that way everyone can afford it, it's nearly half of what they pay for military anyway, and more than what they pay yearly to insurance companies, that way they are actually paying less than what they are paying now, and not worry about any costs when they go to hospital. This is what price control is, and all of Europe does it and that is why I think that's not left wing at all.
hero member
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September 21, 2024, 11:56:33 AM
The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me. Debate made sure that republicans may not go out to vote like they normally would. It didn't made any Trump voter become Kamala voter or vice versa, that never happens, these debates help with candidates either get their voters turn out or not, and I think Kamala voters will come out and trump voters will not come out and that's the most important part.
The debate 100% helped her chances regardless of whether anyone are willing to believe it or not, but I feel it was a small boost. She received a bigger boost thanks to Swift siding with her in my opinion.

A powerful female siding with another powerful female is a proper combo. Trump tweeting childish statements against Swift didn't exactly help him either.
legendary
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Blackjack.fun
September 21, 2024, 10:52:19 AM
You are confusing economic positioning and political positioning. Look at the Nolan or Eysenck model. The problem is that communists always come to power with "good" slogans and they promise the crowd what it wants (even if they don't believe it themselves), but after they consolidate their power, their rule turns into a dictatorship.

You're looking at 12 years out of 16 of democrat rule right now.
Does America look like anything communist to you?

Let's make an experiment here and make a topic about corporations in the US you will see that instantly everyone who was calling the Democrats socialist and communist suddenly makes a 180 degree turn and says that corporations own everything in the US, we are all slaves, rich get richer and so on, that socialism is needed!  Grin
Wanna bet on it?
 
 
Look at the history of Russia, when communists came to power, in some issues they were the most progressive in the world at that time - getting rid of religious oppression, removing sexual taboos, progressive attitude to the racial issue, etc.

What alternative history did you read?
When communists came to power (via a civil war) they nationalized everything, introduced the war communism economy movement, collectivization that ended with the famine of 1921, the genocide of Kulaks, and so on.
If you're thinking of the Declaration of Rights that was a joke, probably Lenin and Stalin were laughing their ass out while writing that, the first thing Lenin did was expropriate all churches and declare that religion is opium and destructive to society. Racial stuff, let's not even go there!

As for corporations, they are anti-market by nature: they have won the competition and now want to secure their victory. They advocate regulation, licensing, quotas, and other things that raise the threshold for entering the market. Therefore, corporations try to merge with the state machine (against people). These are the basics.

You still haven't explained how an economy run by corporations is a communist one!  Cheesy
But let's go one further, if those corporations are bad as you say, why aren't you supporting democrats taxing them more and you're supporting Trump who wants tax cuts for them?  It's a bit hard for me to understand why you want to take the side of the ones who are agsint the people, this in your own words!  Grin
legendary
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September 21, 2024, 10:21:53 AM
I am not from the US either, but nevertheless it seems to me that the outcome of the elections will directly affect me. With all the shortcomings of the US, it is the most free and progressive (not in the sense of fucking liberals with their million genders, but in the old sense) country, if it falls into socialism/communism/Marxism, then the whole world will become worse. The Bitcoin issue is in tenth place in importance here.

As a guy who has lived in true communist dictatorship, please ELI5 me how progressive who are pro-abortion, pro- alphabet people and pro immigration, things that would have earned you 20 years of correctional hard labor back there are communist! You do know that most of Trumps politics are closer to being communist than what Democrats propose, right?
 
And speaking of communism, why are corporations endorsing Kamala if she wants to turn the US a commie state?  Grin
~

You are confusing economic positioning and political positioning. Look at the Nolan or Eysenck model. The problem is that communists always come to power with "good" slogans and they promise the crowd what it wants (even if they don't believe it themselves), but after they consolidate their power, their rule turns into a dictatorship. Look at the history of Russia, when communists came to power, in some issues they were the most progressive in the world at that time - getting rid of religious oppression, removing sexual taboos, progressive attitude to the racial issue, etc. But in the end, for some fucking reason, the country ended up not in a fairy tale, but in a concentration camp.

As for corporations, they are anti-market by nature: they have won the competition and now want to secure their victory. They advocate regulation, licensing, quotas, and other things that raise the threshold for entering the market. Therefore, corporations try to merge with the state machine (against people). These are the basics.
sr. member
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September 21, 2024, 09:23:05 AM
The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me. Debate made sure that republicans may not go out to vote like they normally would.
It's hard to trust big or small margin from poll results because they only give us results, and we don't know how did they conduct their polls. If methodology is bad, data collection is bad, you know "Garbage in, garbage out" and results can be used to manipulate the crowd thinking and action in the election too.

Actually, debates like these ones usually are not aimed for the candidates to get their voting base ready to vote for them or not. Trump and Kamala core supporters are going to vote for them regardless of what happened in the debate, of you asked me.
It's true that strong and loyal supporters of Republic Party, Democrat Party and each nominee will vote for their party's nominee, not for the opposite nominee. It's super difficult to convince loyal supporters change their mind and vote for an opposite party and its nominee. Except if something is very seriously wrong in your party and with society, serious enough to make you using your vote in order to find change.

Quote
The real impact of this debates goes to those "undecided" voters who are not sure whether Trump or Harris are the correct person to lead the country for other four years.
This is main purpose of both nominees in the debate. Undecided voters and swing states are most important to decide a winner in this election because most of loyal states will continue to support their party in most elections. It's easier for two nominees finding a win in a swing state and they all are trying to have it at as many swing states as possible.
legendary
Activity: 2912
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Blackjack.fun
September 21, 2024, 08:57:52 AM
I am not from the US either, but nevertheless it seems to me that the outcome of the elections will directly affect me. With all the shortcomings of the US, it is the most free and progressive (not in the sense of fucking liberals with their million genders, but in the old sense) country, if it falls into socialism/communism/Marxism, then the whole world will become worse. The Bitcoin issue is in tenth place in importance here.

As a guy who has lived in true communist dictatorship, please ELI5 me how progressive who are pro-abortion, pro- alphabet people and pro immigration, things that would have earned you 20 years of correctional hard labor back there are communist! You do know that most of Trumps politics are closer to being communist than what Democrats propose, right?
 
And speaking of communism, why are corporations endorsing Kamala if she wants to turn the US a commie state?  Grin

In the USA, the final result of the elections is unknown, there is competition between the parties, there is intrigue. At the same time, the personalities of the candidates for the US presidency leave no doubt that everything will be bad in the world and we are moving towards a global catastrophe.

Herad that in 2020 heard that in 2016, oh wait in 2012 and 2008 too
You know when was the first time? In 1984 when the USSR propaganda was telling us that if Regan got re-elected the US economy would crumble and they will launch a nuclear war to save themselves, It's kind of weird if you know what happened afterward!
If there is one thing that died more times than Bitcoin it's the $ and the US economy!

Meanwhile, if anyone is willing to bet there is a huge difference (at this scale) between bookies for this event
Normal odds for betting on the winner at stake:




And some odds that probably nobody wants at Betfair and PP:



legendary
Activity: 1162
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September 21, 2024, 08:39:46 AM
The reason why Kamala is leading by a big margin right now is because of the debate if you ask me. Debate made sure that republicans may not go out to vote like they normally would. It didn't made any Trump voter become Kamala voter or vice versa, that never happens, these debates help with candidates either get their voters turn out or not, and I think Kamala voters will come out and trump voters will not come out and that's the most important part.

Actually, debates like these ones usually are not aimed for the candidates to get their voting base ready to vote for them or not. Trump and Kamala core supporters are going to vote for them regardless of what happened in the debate, of you asked me.
The real impact of this debates goes to those "undecided" voters who are not sure whether Trump or Harris are the correct person to lead the country for other four years.
If you see changes in the polls or changes in the betting market is because of those undecided people or so-called "swing voters", who have given their attention to the better performance of Kamala when compared to Trump.
Also, In my personal point of view, polls are not as trustworthy as the betting markets are.
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