Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 27. (Read 10593 times)

As I know, in the USA. there are deep-red and deep-blue states that mean President nominees almost can not win at deeply supported states for a nominee of an opposite party, and the winner of President Election will be decided by swing states. At swing states, people tend to listen to nominees of both parties, think of their lives last four years and propaganda of both nominees if get elected as a next President in coming four years. These people will decide the winner in USA. President Election in November.

I see Trump takes a lead because people in the USA. are disappointed with their lives, societies and many things under Biden administration four latest years. They want change that won't be given by Kamala Harris who is a Vice President under Biden. If they want change, they have only one choice, Trump.

Almost all of the urban centers within the United States are deep-blue. Even in red states such as Texas and Ohio, the major cities are all controlled by Democrats. And this is especially true with swing states such as Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. BTW, it is true that illegal aliens don't have the right to vote. But then, Democrats recently blocked a measure that was brought in by the GOP to make identity cards mandatory for voting. And while voting, ideological preferences hardly matter for illegals. All that matter is whether they are allowed to stay or not.

As far as I know inmigrants cannot vote, not even in federal elections, it takes one to be a citizen in order to have a voice on who the next president is going to be, you know that.
Besides, even if immigrants could vote (not the case whatsoever) most of them move to liberal cities in already liberal states, it would not have much of an impact on the system of indirect democracy. It would be necessary for immigrants to become citizens and move to very red counties in red states like Texas or move to swing states like Arizona, into specific counties.
Besides all of that, are you aware many of the people who happen to illegally cross the south border are very religious? They are either Cristian and Catholic, the majority of them would not vote Democrat because of issues like abortion or the democrat support to LGBTQ community (all of it sinful in their eyes).
It is more complex than just assuming anyone crossing the Mexican border with the United States is a vote for the democrat party, it is false.

A big challenge for Kamala Harris is finding a running mate for her. At the moment, there is no worthy running mate, preferably someone who is not as far to the left as Kamala. Someone more aligned to the center would be ideal for Kamala to help her take the lead in the elections.

Perhaps no one is looking at Harris' campaign with such confidence.

This doesn’t seem real to me. Kamala Harris is very clearly not fit to be President. She’s as far left as one can be (according to her voting record) and her entire campaign seems like it’s pushing the exact opposite of what she did during her career. So is she a sellout now or did she not believe what she was doing then? If she wins, she’ll continue flooding the country with her voters and that will be the end of our representative democracy.

You should double check on that. Because I have some internet friends who happen to be artists, and they have personally told me how Twitter/X still shadow an their accounts because of the content they post on there.
I think initially Elon wanted the social media to be as free as possible, but something changed and now they have re-established their policy on shadow bans back in place, I ignore the reason.
It would be similar to what Elon said about Alex Jones, when he mentioned he would not lift his ban, because how he lied about children dying in schools, there was some change of heart, obviously, because Jones is back in Twitter/X .
Though, when comes to politics, I agree, he seems to have been neutral enough with people who believes in opposite ideas he has.

The US Congress is based on the number of states, and the number of representatives is awarded to each by population census, increasing the size of the Congress will backfire on anyone who proposes such a thing if any candidate would dare even utter this idea it will be the first to lose all states in the election.

1.67 Donald Trump
2.1Kamala Harris

Trump is going down in the betting, unsurprisingly
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-gaining-ground-trump-6-7-swing-states-bloomberg-poll-shows-2024-07-30/

Now he has nothing really to show while Harris still has a chance to grab some more voters with the VP pick, if she targets it specifically to Georgia and Pennsylvania or NC, we might see even odds.

Musk started supporting Trump quite recently. But Twitter has remained fiercely neutral in this battle, unlike Google or Facebook. Twitter has never blocked any of the Democrats from posting their tweets and unlike the case with Google they never shadow ban anyone whom they don't like. And this is exactly the reason why I like Musk. This man has restored freedom of speech in social media. When Vijaya Gadde and Parag Agrawal were in power, they were doing all they can to suppress free speech. And then the Democrats were cheering for them.

I think executive power was invented literally just for this, so presidents could use it.

Biden will be using it for Supreme Court next up, they are just waiting for Trump to say something about it, as soon as he does, the yare going to do that next.

Biden already talked about it, there will be some fairness to it, like meaning if SC ends up saying something about the president, that immunity is in question, or decisions president makes will be in question. I talked long ago how Biden could literally add in extra 2 seats to SC if he wants to, it is not impossible and doable and within the law, could be "looking" bad, but not illegal to do at all. That would put some trouble if they lose, meaning Trump could add some more, but it is a good idea.

Also, I highly suggest both candidates start talking about increasing the size of the congress and the senate as well, if they could end up adding in like at least twice the size of right now, they could actually make some good votes out of this.

Everyone agrees that there should be a bigger congress, so anyone who promises that on their campaign, that could actually make it very profitable and would definitely end up being something very nice, could earn them big amounts of votes.

Complete or not, what I know is that Trump is selling what people want to hear to them and they are falling for it pretty fast not considering that the power to do most of those things lies with the Congress and not Trump himself.

This is a serious allegation that I'm sure you can't prove, one of the misinformation we are preaching against on the internet. How could you even say that? Don't you know it's a huge indictment to any company doing that? Not to mention that so many of the owners of the most popular social media platforms are not in support of the Democratic party, especially Elon Musk who owns X and has unwavering support for Trump.

The left is the same everywhere in the world or wherever they go, always with progressive ideals of reducing individual and economic freedom aiming at increasing state control (socialism).

Despite having had a promising start as vice president, Harris faces a difficult challenge to establish herself as a replaceable figure for Biden and the worst part is that she only has a few days to achieve this, especially if she continues Biden's legacy and this is an electoral disadvantage, Harris could pay the price.

Well, without a doubt I would bet on Both options , both in a monetary bet and the final decision for which I believe that Trump will win the Elections, although lately with the World political Situation and especially the one I have experienced, I believe that any result is very possible , the only thing is that I fully trust the US electoral system and the suspicion of fraud is very far away, but I really see that what you say with your Analogy is very true , in the last finishing Stretch, they can leave Trump out.

With these lastest losses which the Republican party has suffered in the midterm elections, a couple of years ago, I would not trust polls so much. Do you remember those polls who talked about the imminent red wave which was about to conquer both the Senate and the house for the Republican party? All of it was actually fruitless...
At this point, it would be better for the mental health of the average person who has had too much of politics not to pay attention to polls and those results and just go out to vote for their candidate.
There are neutral polls out there, that is true, but even those cannot be completely trusted in, as their methodology could fail.

Regardless of what the polls say and how percentages behave, I am going to keep my bet for the last minute, this election has just become too unpredictable.

I think the oppisite, Biden still ranks as higher chances then Harris imo.   Like Obama said originally in summary at least, 'power must be taken it cannot be gifted' or at the least she must earn the win, earn the nomination.

Do people honestly want to say she earnt that nomination, at present the situation was gifted to her.   Congratulations, great luck like a lottery win but this is not how elections are won or should be.  

As such I think Harris is worse off in the election, not the polls which are purely an estimate.   Since I already figured Biden could scrape a win, maybe she will too but I dont see the Democrats have improved their position.    Maybe she proves her worth at some point, just as a women its an uphill struggle the whole way if USA is as naturally conservative as I think it is.

  A cross-section of ingrained beliefs and generational bias goes toward whatever victories might be possible in that particular state, no win can be simple when you are the first to attempt it.   At the same time Harris has to fight ongoing racism existing in some states, certainly a feature in people decisions in at least some proportion.

  Also theres gender, again strong bias to say this is not ever going to be an easy win not when trying to win every state in an electoral college.    When people complain its all about old white men, I dont disagree thats the bias and it doesnt disappear now.   When people even her own team try to ignore or pretend this isnt a cliff to climb in terms of altering perceptions, I think they are worse off and I think they easily fail if unrealistic in their aim.

People are ignoring the challenge of being the first ever woman elected to Presidential office & its at least equal to any difficulties Biden had.

Can't put it any better than this. I am not an US citizen. But from what I can see, there are no bigger hypocrites than the Democrats. They are the ones who always try to block free speech. And then without any shame they accuse others of voter interference. It really surprises me that 45% of the US population are registered as voters belonging to this party. But at the same time, it is encouraging to see the fightback from the right. Guys like Elon are now posing serious challenge to the far-left cabal.

Not sure about that, it worked so far and I think they do have a good future ahead of them as well, and debate won't be that easy for Trump neither, this isn't Biden, this is Kamala, a judge, and Trump is officially a criminal too, so that would play a big role, and Kamala will not be like Biden and swallow half of the words, she will go out to beat him, there is even talks that Trump is too afraid to do a debate against her, which would work for her even better to be fair but would be quicker story, maybe a week max.

I think if Kamala keeps this pace up, and keeps the media attention (even social media) on her, then there is no way Trump could win this.

The fact that she took the light AFTER trump got shot, that shows you that she knows what she is doing and there is a big possibility she can keep this up. Maybe we aren't hearing anything big coming out of her camp yet, but I think they are just waiting for Trump to do something, to get the attention and then Kamala may do something, until then she just lets the time pass and all the talk is about her anyway. That's why I think it should be fine, I do not think that it will be too bad, I think it will be fine for Kamala, at least has higher chance than Biden.

There is no perfection and the magic from bi-party scheme is it allows people to vote for change, if they want. The votes from citizens force companies, politicians and parties have to change themselves. If not, they will lose their temporary power in the country and they have no other way than changing themselves, philosophy and strategies to serve their people.

What happened with Twitter in the past, Facebook, Google now can be explained but we see how Twitter changed to X, from censorship to less censorship and kind of more support for freedom of speech. If not Elon, other people can do it in a free nation.

It's easy to be a communist in a free country, but try being free in a communist country. It says all.

Imho, it's about people not knowing her, and for now, because VP's role has traditionally been more in the background, people haven't really paid attention, and everything can change if she makes a good impression now. Polls aren't affected yet, because people want to know what she is all about before giving an opinion.

And speaking about talking points, republicans need to invent completely new ones fast, as old ones are in whole another context now, and are backfiring on their own candinate. I would be amazed if the polls and odds wouldn't change soon. But then again, those have been misleading in the past.

Oh seems election became more interesting many thought that Trump will get an easy victory this year, but it seems that Kamala Harris also gaining a momentum.

Harris seems to have a good support on some states https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/31/harris-narrows-gap-with-trump-in-us-national-battleground-state-polls

I guess Trump should not take everything easy since If he let those things happen then there's huge chance that Harris will take over the seat.

But I still believe Trump will win this election.

Bro, cool down a bit, hyping will not change anything, let's be practical and constructive, after all, I am also a fan of cryptocurrency, but what I will not do is deceive myself like many of you. No one is saying cryptocurrency is not popular or not a voice to reckon with, but I will always maintain that the percentage of its adopters in the US will still not be a deciding factor in the US election.

If Trump becomes the president today, it's certainly not the crypto mantra that delivered that to me as many factors contribute to the US president winning. These factors include cryptocurrency but the importance of it will always be lower than many other pressing factors. You can't say that 21% (the percentage of the US crypto adopters) of the US population will win the election simply because they adopt cryptocurrency.

Even among the 21%, many of them will be ineligible to vote and among those who are eligible, many may not be crypto bigots as you believed. If you do the arithmetic, you might realise that less than 10% may vote for Trump because of cryptocurrency, which is still very low to win an election.

Let's admit a constructive fact and not noise!