2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 30.

Wonder Work

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on September 14, 2024, 07:41:53 AM

That's it, the election would be keenly contested and I think this will be an eye-opener to bigots who think Bitcoin will determine the next US president, how foolish is that? I wonder how many times they mentioned Bitcoin in the debate.

Currently, they are putting too much emphasis on Bitcoin, giving them an irrational view of the political future. Bitcoin cannot directly determine election results. I find intense competition and political maneuvering in elections much more difficult.

I know many factors play into election results, such as economic conditions, social issues, and the candidates' power and political standing. Bitcoin may have an effect but will not act as the sole cause.

The way they talked about Bitcoin in the Bitcoin 2024 debate is shocking. Their contention suggests that Bitcoin is a higher priority in their campaign. There won't be any hype about Bitcoin, it will stop after the election.

avp2306

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Quote from: Pokapoka124 on September 16, 2024, 02:00:27 PM

Quote from: davis196 on September 16, 2024, 01:42:21 AM

There was another "assassination attempt" against Trump in Florida. I'm not sure that this attempt is even real. It seems to me that the Republicans are just desperate at this point and they try to boost Trump's popularity by making him look like a victim of the "deep state".
I am 90% sure that Kamala Harris will win the election, unless she makes some stupid mistake until November. Vladimir Putin said that he supports Harris, because she is predictable(and maybe because he wants the USA to have a weak president). Maybe Putin will get what he wants. Grin

I don't support anyone of the candidates and I'm not a US citizen, but the future of the world is going to suck. Sad

The previous assassination attempt increased Trump’s popularity by a significant percentage. I believe a second assassination attempt will double the previous numbers. People who are not interested in the US elections are asking questions about why Trump is always getting shot at. And why is no one trying to shoot at Kamala Harris. The second assassination attempt is taking the attention from the debate and Trump is on everyone’s lips again. Whoever is trying to kill the man is doing him a favour by failing.

He provably get the sympathy of people when that incident happen, but people decision change that incident has been forgotten already and to many things happen especially the take over of Kamala Harris in the poll. Provably they create something unique that's right now its like Trump is losing with Harris. If he want to stay in the game and want to fight on polls maybe he should do more better job since right now Harris is dominating and provably this situations changes the mind of political bettors and they would go to Harris if until near election date she still get the lead against Trump.

Harris still winning on poll as latest survey says https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/09/15/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-leads-by-2-points-in-latest-survey/

She also seen as winner on last debate against Trump https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-debate-winner-maintaining-slight-lead-trump-poll/story?id=113673862

satscraper

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Quote from: Pokapoka124 on September 16, 2024, 02:00:27 PM

The previous assassination attempt increased Trump’s popularity by a significant percentage.

Sure, increased, especially among manufacturers of period pads after he used one of them to plug his ear.

Quote

I think those manufactures were behind that assassination the aim being the direct marketing of period pads.^{(It is rumored that realization of always product increased by 20 % in the first week after doof Trump's performance on public)}
As to his golf performance in Florida. He wend down with beep Grin

which went off far away from the place he was staying. What else will he fabricate?

fruktik

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Quote from: Pokapoka124 on September 16, 2024, 02:00:27 PM

The previous assassination attempt increased Trump’s popularity by a significant percentage. I believe a second assassination attempt will double the previous numbers. People who are not interested in the US elections are asking questions about why Trump is always getting shot at. And why is no one trying to shoot at Kamala Harris. The second assassination attempt is taking the attention from the debate and Trump is on everyone’s lips again. Whoever is trying to kill the man is doing him a favour by failing.

No, this number has already been worked out and will not be used again to increase Trump's popularity. Such methods are used once, not several times. Government agencies may suspect the former president of a setup and begin an investigation against him. Then he will clearly be in trouble and can forget about the elections once and for all.

And to everyone... What is my opinion about the "presidential" bets. I can say with great confidence that at the moment Harris has every chance of winning. Biden pulled off a simply wonderful trick against which Trump has practically no chance. No one expected such a turn of events and then this. Simply Bravo.

STT

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Putin wouldnt have answered the question in any sensible way, he would take it as a joke and answered as such. USA and Russia are as hostile as they've been since the era of the bay of pigs etc. It was a stupid question and returned with a stupid answer. Trump says he'll alter the Ukraine war & since Putin has had nothing but pain from that mistake its obvious he would like a change in policy. I dont doubt he will wait for the outcome of the election to decide the war in some way, its that pivotal most likely. There is no gain but he wishes to reduce losses surely and loss of face.

Quote

I thought the security agents would get paranoid and significantly increase the former president's security

For the money they cant cover every angle. This time they did their job and stopped it well in advance, he didnt get a shot off. I wonder if he can even be charged with any attempt but it should not matter as I think filing the serial off a gun is a sentence of more then a decade perhaps, they have enough anyway.

Pokapoka124

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Quote from: davis196 on September 16, 2024, 01:42:21 AM

There was another "assassination attempt" against Trump in Florida. I'm not sure that this attempt is even real. It seems to me that the Republicans are just desperate at this point and they try to boost Trump's popularity by making him look like a victim of the "deep state".
I am 90% sure that Kamala Harris will win the election, unless she makes some stupid mistake until November. Vladimir Putin said that he supports Harris, because she is predictable(and maybe because he wants the USA to have a weak president). Maybe Putin will get what he wants. Grin

I don't support anyone of the candidates and I'm not a US citizen, but the future of the world is going to suck. Sad

The previous assassination attempt increased Trump’s popularity by a significant percentage. I believe a second assassination attempt will double the previous numbers. People who are not interested in the US elections are asking questions about why Trump is always getting shot at. And why is no one trying to shoot at Kamala Harris. The second assassination attempt is taking the attention from the debate and Trump is on everyone’s lips again. Whoever is trying to kill the man is doing him a favour by failing.

alani123

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It's funny that the person who went on to attack Trump was a very big proponent of supporting the war in Ukraine, even flying to Ukraine supposedly to recruit volunteers.

So it's clear his motivation must've been Trump's anti-war policy. Who knows who was funding the attacker? But I wouldn't be surprised if it was a state sponsored attempt on Trump. It'll be really funny to see revelations like this hit the mainstream. Just more reason to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible if they're now making attempts on US presidential candidates.

criptoevangelista

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Quote from: nullama on September 16, 2024, 04:22:51 AM

Quote from: davis196 on September 16, 2024, 01:42:21 AM

There was another "assassination attempt" against Trump in Florida. I'm not sure that this attempt is even real. It seems to me that the Republicans are just desperate at this point and they try to boost Trump's popularity by making him look like a victim of the "deep state".
I am 90% sure that Kamala Harris will win the election, unless she makes some stupid mistake until November. Vladimir Putin said that he supports Harris, because she is predictable(and maybe because he wants the USA to have a weak president). Maybe Putin will get what he wants. Grin

I don't support anyone of the candidates and I'm not a US citizen, but the future of the world is going to suck. Sad

Yeah, I read it too. It seems that the perpetrator simply flew there and jumped into a gun shop to buy the gun and an armor, then went to try to shoot Trump.

It seems so easy to do it that I'm surprised we haven't seen more of these things happening.

I guess they just stopped talking about the "small shootings" and they only cover the big ones.

The strangest thing is that the agents only find out later. Isn't there some kind of intelligence service to prevent attacks? Because in the incident where the bullet hit the ear, I thought the security agents would get paranoid and significantly increase the former president's security. Or is there someone undercover and wants to eliminate Trump by passing information and sabotaging security? Strange.

nullama

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Quote from: davis196 on September 16, 2024, 01:42:21 AM

There was another "assassination attempt" against Trump in Florida. I'm not sure that this attempt is even real. It seems to me that the Republicans are just desperate at this point and they try to boost Trump's popularity by making him look like a victim of the "deep state".
I am 90% sure that Kamala Harris will win the election, unless she makes some stupid mistake until November. Vladimir Putin said that he supports Harris, because she is predictable(and maybe because he wants the USA to have a weak president). Maybe Putin will get what he wants. Grin

I don't support anyone of the candidates and I'm not a US citizen, but the future of the world is going to suck. Sad

Yeah, I read it too. It seems that the perpetrator simply flew there and jumped into a gun shop to buy the gun and an armor, then went to try to shoot Trump.

It seems so easy to do it that I'm surprised we haven't seen more of these things happening.

I guess they just stopped talking about the "small shootings" and they only cover the big ones.

3kpk3

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Quote from: uneng on September 15, 2024, 08:39:23 PM

What is the point in developing political strategies after all? It's just a disservice to the nation, since all these promises and strategies are based in lies and propaganda.

Well said. USA is filled with plenty of great presidential candidates, but the only options were Trump and Biden which was embarassing to say the least. Harris is slightly better than them, but is still not a great presidential candidate.

Am only choosing to support Harris over Trump because she is younger and less inhumane than him. Nothing more, nothing less.

davis196

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There was another "assassination attempt" against Trump in Florida. I'm not sure that this attempt is even real. It seems to me that the Republicans are just desperate at this point and they try to boost Trump's popularity by making him look like a victim of the "deep state".
I am 90% sure that Kamala Harris will win the election, unless she makes some stupid mistake until November. Vladimir Putin said that he supports Harris, because she is predictable(and maybe because he wants the USA to have a weak president). Maybe Putin will get what he wants. Grin

I don't support anyone of the candidates and I'm not a US citizen, but the future of the world is going to suck. Sad

viljy

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Quote from: FinneysTrueVision on September 15, 2024, 10:08:57 PM

The fact that the race is still a toss up speaks to Harris' failure as a candidate. Rather than condemning Israel’s war crimes to try and win voters in heavily Muslim swing states, she promises to send them more bombs and has lawyers trying to kick Jill Stein off the ballots. Third parties are polling well enough that this alienating of crucial demographics might cost her the election. Her embrace of the establishment and upholding the status quo make her campaign broadly unappealing. She is counting on people seeing her as less awful than Trump will be enough to get her in the White House.

If we take into account the past debates, where Trump looked much weaker than Kamala, the killers who will regularly shoot Trump until they shoot him, then it turns out with a high probability that Kamala will become president. If her opponent is just dead... I have no sympathy for any candidate. I'm just reasoning based on real factors.

FinneysTrueVision

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Quote from: STT on September 15, 2024, 06:39:17 PM

Anyway I guess some other idiot has continued to help Trump with his figures, I dont see how it could hurt his chances at all. Its bad all round if this is the issue that turns out to be the pivotal part that gets him into office rather then actual policy differences between the two candidates.

People keep trying to assassinate Trump because he is such a detestable and loathsome person. I don’t think he will get as much of a bump from this attempt as he did the last time. It’s hard to feel sympathy for somebody propagating the most insane conspiracies demonizing entire ethnic groups. Trump has found an audience for which this rhetoric is appealing or not a deal breaker, but there is a limit to how many people you can attract with that strategy.

The fact that the race is still a toss up speaks to Harris' failure as a candidate. Rather than condemning Israel’s war crimes to try and win voters in heavily Muslim swing states, she promises to send them more bombs and has lawyers trying to kick Jill Stein off the ballots. Third parties are polling well enough that this alienating of crucial demographics might cost her the election. Her embrace of the establishment and upholding the status quo make her campaign broadly unappealing. She is counting on people seeing her as less awful than Trump will be enough to get her in the White House.

uneng

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Quote from: alani123 on September 14, 2024, 08:50:50 AM

The question of what Trump had to offer is a very important one.
Right now Trump needs people from outside his main base to be able to win. So in my view, he has to go back to the basics.

How did he win in 2016? He exposed Hillary Clinton for the crazed warmongering lunatic that she is. Taking advice from the war criminal Kissinger to bomb other nations and destabilize entire regions, endangering the lives of the thousands of American troops stationed abroad.

In 2016 Trump had a very clear advantage: he was an outsider, an inedit figure running for presidency who made big promises to the country. He won and did nothing different from past governments. He created high expectations as a "crazy" man, but at same time a man who would fight the establishment. In the end he showed to be just more of the same (with a populist empty speech).

Now doesn't matter what he says or promises, he isn't an inedit candidate anymore. Everyone already knows the politician Donald Trump. Not that it excites people to vote for Harris too. With the exception of the verbose ideological fools, the average citizen must be feeling hopeless and annoyed by what politics have finally turned. It has never been good, but right now everything is just too absurdly mediocre.

What is the point in developing political strategies after all? It's just a disservice to the nation, since all these promises and strategies are based in lies and propaganda.

STT

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Trump gets another attempt on his life apparently, they caught the shooter alive this time a 58 year old white man. Trump was playing golf in the open but luckily he nor anyone next to the former president received fatal shots and Ive not heard of any causalities over the incident. A semi automatic rifle maybe some design near to AK47 + scope, which would explain why it was luckily not accurate perhaps.
Shots were fired but USSS appear to have been more proactive in this case, Im not sure outside is safe at all for Trump at this point.

Anyway I guess some other idiot has continued to help Trump with his figures, I dont see how it could hurt his chances at all. Its bad all round if this is the issue that turns out to be the pivotal part that gets him into office rather then actual policy differences between the two candidates.

jossiel

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Quote from: wheelz1200 on September 15, 2024, 04:31:52 PM

I still haven't laid a bet down on the US elections and the more and more that time goes on I don't think I'm going to. I usually habe a good grasp on what is happening and what shoukd likely happen but this is the biggest unknown I think we've ever seen in terms of an election. Kamala can win, trump can win it's a coin flip. Amd I think will be really surprising come election night to see how the state voting goes. Will be watching but likely will sit out of this bet.

It's good to hear it from someone that does really know what's happening. Both sides think that they're winning but on a perspective of someone neutral, it's actually a good point.

For people like me that just started to follow what's going on with the campaigns and upcoming elections there, it's starting to become the same thing as well but before, it's mostly about Trump because of the assassination attempt.

wheelz1200

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I still haven't laid a bet down on the US elections and the more and more that time goes on I don't think I'm going to. I usually habe a good grasp on what is happening and what shoukd likely happen but this is the biggest unknown I think we've ever seen in terms of an election. Kamala can win, trump can win it's a coin flip. Amd I think will be really surprising come election night to see how the state voting goes. Will be watching but likely will sit out of this bet.

Hispo

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Quote from: stompix on September 15, 2024, 04:09:25 PM

...

Did she actually share that in his bootleg version of Twitter/X, that is weird, as if that is going to help him at all, it makes him look desperate, almost as if expected Taylor to have a change of heart about endorsing the democrat party and endorse him instead Kamala Harris. Anyways, I don't blame him for throwing a temper tantrum, though; he is pathological narcissist and he probably watched the debate again in private and realized he did not do good enough when faced Kamala Harris, if you also add the fact he could be imprisoned for life (or at least, for a couple of years) if he does not win the race, then I am not surprised at all for all this behavior he is showing.
As it stands now, Kamala is the favorite in the eyes of the bettors, but that could easily change with October surprise.

If nothing meaningful happens by the end of October, then I will be placing my bet by the beginning of November.

Also, If I was Trump I would have never picked Vance as running mate, he does not add anything of worth to his campaign, I would have choaen a republican woman to equilibrate the gender gap there is currently screwing up Trump's chances to win, specially in swing states.

stompix

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Well, you have to be a special kind to think this will get you any votes

Seems like he has lost his marbles after he saw a new candidate, failed to deliver anything in the debate he was so sure of he is now throwing a tantrum over a pop singer about which he was posting fake AI pics of her endorsing him, I can easily see Kamala easing to 1.75 with the bookies tonight, already on a downside to 1.8

Meanwhile in swing states:

And more than crypto, Americans really care about gas prices
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-gasoline-prices-set-fall-under-3gallon-election-nears-2024-09-12/

alani123

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I revamped the OP a little bit so it can be more topical to the current candidates and more recent events.
Not that much time till the election now, hopefully I won't have to change it again.

Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 30. (Read 15310 times)