Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 31. (Read 15353 times)

What happens is that Obama was a person who uncovered many things, or rather, he was a person who allowed many things to be uncovered , secrets and everything they could do , from zeroanonymity to being able to do what Snowden did, so in this order of ideas it does not surprise me to bring these things to reality where the political Currents want to protect secrets and such things from humanity , and for the first time in life in the USA they had the feeling of having Attacked a system where they hate privacy and anonymity, something that we always disagree with, now the interests fly , for the events now, who could be hiding things? Secrets ? On one hand a former president who wants to declassify many things, and another who does not want anything to be known , when will the Americans take off the blindfold?

When you are from a nation that has a potential to be impacted/attacked, or at least a neighbour country could and impact you as well, then yeah you should care, that's obvious, but I won't because they won't do anything near me at all, only one impacted me was Iraq, and ever since that moment, nothing mattered on whatever president at all.

And talking about PETS, it's clear that Haiti could actually have a culture where they did something like that back in their nation, but STEALING PETS FROM HOMES? We know that is not a common thing at all, even if it happened once or twice, it is not a common thing at all, certainly not something you would like to repeat and be mocked on a presidential debate. Trump has the biggest weakness where people who "love" him could tell him a lie and he will believe, he doesn't fact check at all.

With the help of the ABC mods, the people are not sure what to believe anymore in the country especially when the reality is being pronounced fake news by authorities.  If they lie about the simplest crimes, you can be assured they lie about the biggest crimes.

When they asked, "Do you want Ukraine to win this war?"  Trump said he wants no one dead anymore but it seems the mods see it like Trump lost it with such an answer. 

Nothing is impossible in this prediction, when you are someone who is skeptical about Harris's chances of winning, Harris is completely capable of turning everything that seems to be disadvantageous for her into her biggest strength, currently this election is extremely hot and fierce but because of the balance as well as the side information posted every day, the possibility of winning is not too much. And this is the joy of the places that accept bets for this election, if it is too easy to predict, it will be a difficult problem in terms of profit, but with the constant rotation, this is also an opportunity to reap a profit on one side.

The question of what Trump had to offer is a very important one.
Right now Trump needs people from outside his main base to be able to win. So in my view, he has to go back to the basics.

How did he win in 2016? He exposed Hillary Clinton for the crazed warmongering lunatic that she is. Taking advice from the war criminal Kissinger to bomb other nations and destabilize entire regions, endangering the lives of the thousands of American troops stationed abroad.

This is something Trump could repeat with great success with two simple issues.

Set a timeframe for a transition to peace in Ukraine by promoting a deal and promoting new elections in the country after they were halted by Zelensky. Ukraine needs to go back to being a peaceful democracy, its people have become tired of the war the US ushered onto them. They should be given the opportunity to express that in a vote. The Biden administration is promoting a war that can not be won at a great expense to the American and European people.

Secondly, Trump must set a clear deadline for a peace deal Israel has to accept. If they continue massacring babies the us should accept international law and focus on stopping to supply arms to them.

If Trump does these two things he could win in a landslide. But I highly doubt he'll do it. He's actually digging himself in a hole now by saying increasingly unpopular things.

BTC is a side issue, perhaps if one party was dead against it but neither are so its not especially pivotal.


Thats a strength and a weakness, no doubt question and answers were practised a hundred times over.  Also that can result in sounding like a robot and disingenuous, too afraid to leave the script.   An actor but not a great one.  

Somehow Trump has this as a strength, in the midst of his slight chaos and near fantasy accuracy on details such as missing pets; you still dont doubt he means it.   Genuine answers count for so much more then reading off a script of what the spin doctors told you would trigger positive responses, people can tell when you are holding up a facade.

   I dont think Harris is as bad as Clinton was on this, but its a disease in politics to be fake and even worse if your acting lacks spirit.   People spit out what they are being fed like its poison, Harris needs work on being more genuine & is definitely a learner on the job.

I didn't expect less here, it's all clear, Trump has nothing to offer other than his headstrong and lies as usual. I know him as the kind of man who would see white but call it black and still stand by it. I wonder why he even has a high base of supporters if not that people are insane, division everywhere. He thought it would be as easy as Biden's time.

Lol...That truly speaks of Trump, he likes to spit all the jargon out effectively.

That's it, the election would be keenly contested and I think this will be an eye-opener to bigots who think Bitcoin will determine the next US president, how foolish is that? I wonder how many times they mentioned Bitcoin in the debate.

Kamala just agreed to the same debate that was originally scheduled between Biden and Trump, same time, same network, same rules.  I think the only thing she tried to change was to keep Trumps mic on the whole time.  And the debate happened less than two months after her campaign even existed....so wherever you're getting all your 'flow of their debate organization' from....don't get stuff from there anymore.

The flow of their debate organization is as follows:

Trump asked for debates. Kamala refused or ignored many times.
Trump asked for debates with first on Kamala-supported media like ACB news, then two more debates with one in a Republic-supporrted news.

At the end, at least so far, Kamala agreed to do only one debate which was hosted by ABCnews and we saw how ABCnews did their severe election interference days ago.

So after refusing to do two other debates, why shortly after a first debate, Kamala wanted more?

Think about it, analyze the flow, something can be retrieved.

I thought that it was Trump who is asking for a second debate as they know that they have been defeated on the first one? So if the consensus is that Kamala did better, then why ask for a rematch when she won already?

Yeah, he can shift but not this time, against a experience debater in Kamala that's why we feel that Trump did lose in the debate, thus his winning percentage dropping and Kamala is back on the top. Trump failed though to include his geo-policy, and that's why we see him losing here. Maybe if there is a second debate, Trump might improved with his usual personal attacks and rhetoric.

I very much agree. This is also certainly similar for prediction markets. If the total amount of bets is small, this would not give a very accurate reference on what is the reality of each of the candidates' ratings. However, it appears that the total amount of bets are reaching a size that might give everyone a very close reference on each of the candidate's ratings?



Polymarket approaches $1 billion in bets for 2024 presidential election winner

The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket accumulated a nearly $900 million bet for the winner of the United States 2024 presidential election.

U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leads the way with an estimated 50% chance of winning and a bet surpassing $127 million, according to the platform. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump comes in a close second at 49% winning odds and a nearly $144 million bet.

Read in full https://www.theblock.co/post/316455/polymarket-approaches-1-billion-in-bets-for-2024-presidential-election-winner

I watched the debate and I don't think Harris actually win Donald Trump I'm the debate. The debate was quite interesting although I couldn't watch it to the end but I think Donald Trump has higher chances of winning this election. This election could be manipulated, and if that happens then Trump might not get enough votes to win this election. What ever happens after this election, I'll over look it because we could see more females voting for Harris because she's a woman of lies being used by the president. I would rather go for a thousand dollars bet on Trump multiple times than Harris with intention to create unbearable inflation in the future.

I am not from the United States, but I have some friends over there. The understanding I have on this topic is debates generally dominate over poll numbers, polls numbers are a reflection on what the general public is supposed to be thinking (in theory) and that perception can be changed more or less depending on what the candidate has to say during a debate.
Also, if I was you I would not give much credit to poll numbers whatsoever, remember back several months ago, when polls showed there was supposed to be a red wave in those elections and it turns out it did not happen, republicans did not take over the house of representative and the Senate as polls pointed it was going to happen.
So, to me polls numbers are mostly meaningless in this unprecedented period on time in the United States.

Even as polls seems to have turn in favor of Kamala, in the same manner betting markets have, we should not consider those signals to be definitive.
I am expecting the very last week before placing my bet and see whether will have an October surprise this year, as people in the USA call it.

Tylor Swift is worth 1.3 billion, even if she would bet 1 million right now on Kmala she would earn $900 000, she makes 14 million on average per show after expenses and taxes, if her fans find out she bets or that she is into gambling she would lose more than this by order of magnitude, what would be the point of it? Ruining her career for pennies?


I said it a few times, the only way Trump is winning would be for the Democrats to have the worst candidate they could think of, and luckily for Trump Kmala is not that far, Shapiro or Pete Buttigieg would have made this a no competition while Nikki Haley would have moped the floor with Kmala in this debate.

But well, one way or another stupidity wins sometimes.

Kamala has eased to 1.83

the debate alongside a poll in PA with her taking the lead might see Trump drop to 2.25, so if anyone takes a bet now it's the time, if it goes further it will be because his chances are dwindling even more on more bad news, so this would be the sweet spot.

Kamala is an experienced debater thus her win in this debate is not surprised me. More noticeable is that  Taylor Swift urged her fans ^{(BTW, almost 300 millions followers on Instagram)} to vote for Kamala, thus  the Trump's  chances  dropped  to an all-time low. I wonder whether she made a bet,  like me,  gambling  on Kamala with $1000. I think that Taylor Swift  could risk more, even $ 1000 000 is not a money for her.

Trump and Kamala had a debate recently. Kamala's team asked Trump for a second debate after the debate, but he refused. The general consensus is that Kamala did better, but I don't think she can sway the undecided voters. To be honest, I haven't watched the debate yet, but I know that Trump has the ability to shift the ground of the debate with populist rhetoric. It's hard for me to know who will win, but I want Trump to win because maybe then US foreign policy will be less expansionist...

I have actually seen a lot of different opinions from a lot of people , some say that Trump won the debate, others say that Kamala won, there are things that I don't understand very well about Americans, what is more effective, a debate or polls? Will Americans be more convinced by the arguments that politicians give there or not ? Immigrants obviously didn't like what Trump said , and well I have no idea if they do such a thing, but even so , Americans are the ones who decide, and with which candidate they can identify.

Not only that, he seems to have pooped his pants, as big and cocky as he is, and now says he won't debate Kamala again.

As much as he is claiming to have won the debate, if he does not want to debate again it is because he knows he has more to lose than to win in that debate. He probably now regrets smashing Biden in the first one.

RCP average for odds became 51-48 for the bet, I guess that small difference is some third candidate or something if there is one, I am not sure but there could be some libertarian candidate or green candidate whatever, all those could be just one point. In the end, Kamala Harris looks like 3 points ahead, and I think it is getting to a point where Trump is now afraid to go against Kamala on a debate. She wanted another one, and he feared and backed out.

One thing I will say negative about Kamala, she is afraid to do it on Fox News because she knows it will be unfair, and we all know it will be unfair, thinking Fox would have a fair debate is so silly that it's like believing tooth fairy exists when you are 40 years old. But that doesn't mean ABC was fair, ABC wasn't fair neither and Trump knew it and he still did it, while Kamala is wildly, immeasurably better candidate than Trump, she still doesn't have the courage that Trump has on platform picking, it's that much clear.

This is a baseless accusation that Republicans have not proved to be correct. This is not the first time such a thing has been said about immigrants to make them look bad in society.
https://apnews.com/article/haitians-food-pets-false-stereotypes-e857fcc1ca18c77d1c890ec5e41f4f65

I also thought that the US elections weren't my business until Obama attacked and destabilized Libya. This caused an inflow of armed militias into my country causing a rise in criminal activities. I felt the impact of US foreign policy when the price of bread skyrocketed because of the handling of Russia Ukraine war. The attack of Libya, Iraq, and Gaza destabilized oil and gas supply, leading to an increase in the price of goods and services.