2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 39.

ultrloa

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Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on August 28, 2024, 06:13:22 PM

Quote from: Sithara007 on August 28, 2024, 01:36:56 PM

Quote from: cabron on August 28, 2024, 12:21:43 PM

You can already tell they conspire to put Harris as the President as right now she even took over that seat already. RFK will likely be making campaigns also if he wants Trump to win.

I read that there will be no debate between the two Kamal vs Trump debate will never happen. This should have been a good platform for Trump to advance in the race. It would have been a big point if Trump pointed out that Kamala is the "border czar".

Kamala is leading in some of the polls and she feels that if she wants to keep the momentum ongoing, then she need to stay away from potential blunders. Trump has excellent communication skills and he will destroy Kamala if he is being given an even platform or a level playing field. And Kamala knows this. She will agree to debate Trump under extremely biased terms and conditions and this won't be acceptable for Trump. And then the mainstream media will accuse Trump of running away from the debate.

Well but it could be like that, although Trump stated that Kamala does not want to debate with him because she is not smart enough to Measure herself against him, so things are sometimes a little Strange , I think in this case Kamala wants to divert attention, and not go to confrontation, a debt has to be on equal terms, for me things should be done in the context of normal participation, with no Kind of Advantage for anyone , that they defend themselves as they Should and according to that , then people see who can be better prepared, but personally for me Trump wins.

Maybe they try to avoid those schedule set since they see that Harris is not ready yet to exchange of words against Trump on the date set. But Trump camps is still optimistic that this debate will happen and they have other schedule date set and it will happen in June.

Its provably so good to see those two camps will defend each other towards the topic raise in that debate and people provably could see on which of those two candidates is worth for their votes if they hear a good word coming from those two politicians.

Don Pedro Dinero

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Quote from: stompix on August 29, 2024, 02:21:35 AM

I don't get why bookies offer Texas, I understand offering the option of betting on Obama cause that is for sure a loss, but giving the chance on betting on Rep win in Texas even at 1.07? No way Texas will flip!

I heard during the 2022 midterm elections that in Texas the cities are becoming progressively more Democratic, while the rural areas remain Republican. I've looked it up and there seems to be something to that.

Why Democratic Gains In Texas’s Big Metro Areas Could Outweigh Republican Success In South Texas

It also seems that there would be, paradoxically, people who flee states like California because of high taxes, insecurity and other issues and upon arriving in Texas still vote Democrat.

stompix

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 28, 2024, 11:50:44 PM

If she's elected president, Kamala Harris pledges to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the wall along the southern border — a project she once opposed and called "un-American" during the Trump administration.

Source https://www.axios.com/2024/08/27/kamala-harris-flip-flops-border-wall

Why don't you quote the full thing?

Quote

In her speech to the Democratic National Convention last week, Harris said she would sign the recent bipartisan border security bill — which Trump had ordered his allies to kill, fearing it would help Democrats in the November elections

So Trump wanted to kill a bipartisan bill for border control because without it he would have no ammunition for the election? Like that guy who wants to stop the firetruck so his house can burn down so he can claim insurance? Grin

I would bet any time that if Biden would sign a bill banning abortion the next day you're going to see Trump with a t-shirt with my body my choice!

Anyhow we finally have some odds on state-level

Quote

Arizona
1.8 Republicans 2.0 Democrats
Florida
1.11 Republicans 6.0 Democrats
Georgia
1.5 Republicans 2.25 Democrats
Michigan
1.44 Democrats 2.63 Republicans
Nevada
1.73 Republicans 1.83 Republicans
North Carolina
1.53 Republicans 2.38 Democrats
Pennsylvania
1.83 Democrats 1.83 Republicans
Texas
1.07 Republicans 6.0 Democrats
Wisconsin
1.57 Democrats 2.25 Republicans

I don't get why bookies offer Texas, I understand offering the option of betting on Obama cause that is for sure a loss, but giving the chance on betting on Rep win in Texas even at 1.07? No way Texas will flip!

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: stompix on August 28, 2024, 02:09:59 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 27, 2024, 11:31:43 PM

On betting, there is a Trumpcoin that might be a better bet because it can give a better prize after the pump than 50% in Polymarket hehehehehe.

Which one?
I doubt it's the first one that coinmarketcap says:

pretty rare to see 100% drop in value!

Maga is down 81%
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/maga/

And his other project is god knows what cause the only thing he does is change the name, Defiant Ones, World Liberty, I don't even know what's the current name. The only thing that is certain is that he has forgotten everything about Bitcoin. I can't wait for the launch of that stuff, I'm 1001% sure he will say something about creating a better coin than anything, something better than Bitcoin to make crypto great again!

It is Maga Trump. I speculate that this might not pump for another month and begin a new pump on October. I cannot be certain, however. But it is a similar argument, buying this token cheaply might give more profit than betting on 50-50 in Polymarket.

Also, there is also a new Harris token issued hheheeh. This might pump also on October.

In any case, it appears Kamala has also made a declaration that the southern border is very much needed in America hehehe. Is this declaration true or is this a tactic to gather more voters from Trump?

If she's elected president, Kamala Harris pledges to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the wall along the southern border — a project she once opposed and called "un-American" during the Trump administration.

Source https://www.axios.com/2024/08/27/kamala-harris-flip-flops-border-wall

passwordnow

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Quote from: cabron on August 28, 2024, 12:21:43 PM

You can already tell they conspire to put Harris as the President as right now she even took over that seat already. RFK will likely be making campaigns also if he wants Trump to win.

RFK will concede eventually will have to pass on those who would like to vote for him to Trump if that's what he wants.

Quote from: cabron on August 28, 2024, 12:21:43 PM

I read that there will be no debate between the two Kamal vs Trump debate will never happen. This should have been a good platform for Trump to advance in the race. It would have been a big point if Trump pointed out that Kamala is the "border czar".

That's a good strategy if they want to put Harris to be at the top. Because if there will be debates, Trump would likely to roast her with his answers. The date of election is coming and we've got 2 months left for this and a couple of days.

LUCKMCFLY

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 28, 2024, 01:36:56 PM

Quote from: cabron on August 28, 2024, 12:21:43 PM

You can already tell they conspire to put Harris as the President as right now she even took over that seat already. RFK will likely be making campaigns also if he wants Trump to win.

I read that there will be no debate between the two Kamal vs Trump debate will never happen. This should have been a good platform for Trump to advance in the race. It would have been a big point if Trump pointed out that Kamala is the "border czar".

Kamala is leading in some of the polls and she feels that if she wants to keep the momentum ongoing, then she need to stay away from potential blunders. Trump has excellent communication skills and he will destroy Kamala if he is being given an even platform or a level playing field. And Kamala knows this. She will agree to debate Trump under extremely biased terms and conditions and this won't be acceptable for Trump. And then the mainstream media will accuse Trump of running away from the debate.

Well but it could be like that, although Trump stated that Kamala does not want to debate with him because she is not smart enough to Measure herself against him, so things are sometimes a little Strange , I think in this case Kamala wants to divert attention, and not go to confrontation, a debt has to be on equal terms, for me things should be done in the context of normal participation, with no Kind of Advantage for anyone , that they defend themselves as they Should and according to that , then people see who can be better prepared, but personally for me Trump wins.

Hispo

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Quote from: cabron on August 28, 2024, 12:21:43 PM

I read that there will be no debate between the two Kamal vs Trump debate will never happen. This should have been a good platform for Trump to advance in the race. It would have been a big point if Trump pointed out that Kamala is the "border czar".

Interestingly enough, I believe Trump does not even want the debate between him and Kamala to ever happen, because it would be likely a disaster to him being confronted by someone who is more mentally agile and can actually fact check him live on national Television, unlike Joe Biden.
At this point I would be expecting Trump do make any excuse possible for him not to show up at the debate and continue the presidential campaign by addressing Kamala from far away, calling her names and belittle her, not know that each time he does that, he is pushing female voters away and making the race easier for Harris.
Venen Newsmax and Fox "News" have called out Trump's language on Harris and suggested him to tone down the name-calling.
Anyways, if a debate indeed takes place,.I will undoubtly take note at the change of the odds and prepare my budget to bet in favor of Kamala or Trump.

Sithara007

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Quote from: cabron on August 28, 2024, 12:21:43 PM

You can already tell they conspire to put Harris as the President as right now she even took over that seat already. RFK will likely be making campaigns also if he wants Trump to win.

I read that there will be no debate between the two Kamal vs Trump debate will never happen. This should have been a good platform for Trump to advance in the race. It would have been a big point if Trump pointed out that Kamala is the "border czar".

Kamala is leading in some of the polls and she feels that if she wants to keep the momentum ongoing, then she need to stay away from potential blunders. Trump has excellent communication skills and he will destroy Kamala if he is being given an even platform or a level playing field. And Kamala knows this. She will agree to debate Trump under extremely biased terms and conditions and this won't be acceptable for Trump. And then the mainstream media will accuse Trump of running away from the debate.

cabron

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Quote from: alani123 on August 28, 2024, 01:51:02 AM

Something crazy is happening. After RFK endorsing Trump, he had also said he would remove his name from ballots in states where the election would be a tossup so he could help Trump.

The issue at hand is that largely many election commissions are controlled by Democrat cronies, so now that RFK developed a strategy to help Trump, they will do anything they can to block him. Michigan and Wisconsin election commissions have already blocked RFK's demand to remove his name from the ballot. How fucking crazy is that!? A man can't even remove his name from the ballots at his own volition, they would only do it if it served Biden's interests I guess. I fail to see how that can be a thing in a functioning democracy.

You can already tell they conspire to put Harris as the President as right now she even took over that seat already. RFK will likely be making campaigns also if he wants Trump to win.

I read that there will be no debate between the two Kamal vs Trump debate will never happen. This should have been a good platform for Trump to advance in the race. It would have been a big point if Trump pointed out that Kamala is the "border czar".

stompix

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 27, 2024, 11:31:43 PM

On betting, there is a Trumpcoin that might be a better bet because it can give a better prize after the pump than 50% in Polymarket hehehehehe.

Which one?
I doubt it's the first one that coinmarketcap says:

pretty rare to see 100% drop in value!

Maga is down 81%
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/maga/

And his other project is god knows what cause the only thing he does is change the name, Defiant Ones, World Liberty, I don't even know what's the current name. The only thing that is certain is that he has forgotten everything about Bitcoin. I can't wait for the launch of that stuff, I'm 1001% sure he will say something about creating a better coin than anything, something better than Bitcoin to make crypto great again!

Quote from: STT on August 27, 2024, 12:09:01 PM

Its done for the very important reason of unity across a country the size of a continent, its just too vast to have it as merely a popular vote and no other adjustment. To alter this system would lose the coherence of various fairly large states within the union and nobody is going to take that risk while either side can win it which is usually true.

There are countries with just as huge a population as the US, far more diverse, spread over more different territories, with less national cohesion and they can still do it. If Indonesia with its thousands of islands, multiple autonomous regions, hundreds of ethnicities can then it would be no problem for the US either.

Quote from: alani123 on August 28, 2024, 01:51:02 AM

Michigan and Wisconsin election commissions have already blocked RFK's demand to remove his name from the ballot. How fucking crazy is that!?

It's state law, once you've been granted ballot access you will not be removed from it, unless you die!
https://casetext.com/statute/wisconsin-statutes/elections/chapter-8-nominations-primaries-elections/section-835-vacancies-after-nomination

Quote

(1) Any person who files nomination papers and qualifies to appear on the ballot may not decline nomination. The name of that person shall appear upon the ballot except in case of death of the person. A person who is appointed to fill a vacancy in nomination or who is nominated by write-in votes is deemed to decline nomination if he or she fails to file a declaration of candidacy within the time prescribed under sub. (2) (c) or s. 8.16(2).

Surprisingly everyone knew that for a century but RFK!

alani123

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Something crazy is happening. After RFK endorsing Trump, he had also said he would remove his name from ballots in states where the election would be a tossup so he could help Trump.

The issue at hand is that largely many election commissions are controlled by Democrat cronies, so now that RFK developed a strategy to help Trump, they will do anything they can to block him. Michigan and Wisconsin election commissions have already blocked RFK's demand to remove his name from the ballot. How fucking crazy is that!? A man can't even remove his name from the ballots at his own volition, they would only do it if it served Biden's interests I guess. I fail to see how that can be a thing in a functioning democracy.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 26, 2024, 10:29:05 PM

There is a news update being shared in social media mentioning that Mark Zuckerburg who everyone know already is the CEO of Facebook has declared that he regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration in working with to censor information on the coronavirus in his social media platform.

It appears in this letter Zuckerburg has admitted that Facebook was pressured by the government to censor content and they also admitted to stop the circulation of the story about Biden's family and Burisma after it was proven not to be Russian disinformation.

JUST IN - Zuckerberg regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration to censor Covid era information online.

Source https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1828208501925257631?s=12&t=fx2RmsbaS0qNJTJTdpNu2w

Does this imply that Zuckerburg and Facebook has acknowledge this mistake to protect themselves because they speculate that Trump might win the election?

Another additional argument on this speculation that Mark Zuckerburg might have some certainty that Trump might win the election is he is the owner of a big social media platform. He might be analysing the engagement behaviors of the people in Facebook and the company might be have discovered a revelation that there is more positive engagement on Trump than there is for Kamala Harris hehehe. I will certainly be not shocked if this is true.

Quote from: stompix on August 27, 2024, 05:11:30 AM

Back to betting, money coming for Trump on polymarket

On betting, there is a Trumpcoin that might be a better bet because it can give a better prize after the pump than 50% in Polymarket hehehehehe.

Hispo

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Quote from: STT on August 27, 2024, 12:09:01 PM

Its dead 50/50 me also at this moment because of the great difference between the two candidates from every perspective. Not just the vast difference in politics and policy, but gender, age the attitude and hopes of either is very different.

It makes it interesting at least, Harris isnt even that young but the generation gap might as well be the grand canyon. Trump has the stance of a post ww2 president and Harris is on the total flip side doing Tik Tok dances trying to get the youth vote. The youngest voters just arent reliable as a voting base, Harris will need to win every demographic to get in; if I see her as too reliant on sub 30 voters I will expect a loss.

Honestly, one of the reasons I think Trump managed to win the presidency back in 2016, was because how his political propaganda and future management of government was translated to memes and jokes which were all around the internet and appealed very young voters. I recall there was this meme about voting for Trump because he was going to be anime real, and algo having anime characters wearing the MAGA hat.

Source: https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Donald-Meme_MRZ5710-Mobile-Plastic-iPhone/dp/B08CHKQC6Q

So even if Trump could not easily relate to young voter by his own, there was people within his campaign who was intelligent enough to start spread those kinds of memes all over the internet and appealed to anime fans and young people who liked anime. It was obvious Trump was not capable of making anime real, but for them it was the first contact they had to Trump's policies and to him as a politician.

People is not supposed to underestimate the effectiveness of those kinds of campaigns which in the end, helped Trump to win over Hillary. If Kamalas team was clever enough, they would have already pulled something similar off for them to appeal the youngest voters, but with no cringe.

STT

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Its dead 50/50 me also at this moment because of the great difference between the two candidates from every perspective. Not just the vast difference in politics and policy, but gender, age the attitude and hopes of either is very different.

It makes it interesting at least, Harris isnt even that young but the generation gap might as well be the grand canyon. Trump has the stance of a post ww2 president and Harris is on the total flip side doing Tik Tok dances trying to get the youth vote. The youngest voters just arent reliable as a voting base, Harris will need to win every demographic to get in; if I see her as too reliant on sub 30 voters I will expect a loss.

Quote

the US is the last democratic country using this system,

This electoral college system is never going to change while USA remains the USA. Its done for the very important reason of unity across a country the size of a continent, its just too vast to have it as merely a popular vote and no other adjustment. To alter this system would lose the coherence of various fairly large states within the union and nobody is going to take that risk while either side can win it which is usually true.

stompix

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Quote from: Webetcoins on August 26, 2024, 12:14:03 PM

Quote from: stompix on August 26, 2024, 04:05:59 AM

~

I mean think about it, only once in the last 30+ years that they won, 32 or 33 years I believe, so we are talking about republican party literally gone. No congress, no senators, no presidents, while that may or may not be fair, it's clear that they would become a country that is ruled by democrats.

And so be it, if they are stupid to focus only on winning the election and are completely ignoring the entire country just to secure the middle and the southern voters, it's their fault. Since you mentioned 30+ years, who's fault for that is but their own?
The record in difference in the popular vote is held by Republicans, Nixon and Reagan, they won the votes by over 17 and 16 million votes, what changed? The stupidness of focusing on the wrong things and having the wrong candidate.
Put a man like Reagan in charge of the republican party now and he would swipe the floor with all the democrats put together.

Quote from: Webetcoins on August 26, 2024, 12:14:03 PM

I am not saying it's fair, I am just saying that they wanted equal chances, give the republicans a fighting chance, that's why they did it.

Neah, it's not about that, the system has been in place for a long time when there were no Democrats or Republicans, it's an old system that is pretty stupid, its time has passed and the US should drop it like other countries that had one France had this garbage, Argentina had it but they all realized it needs to change.
Unfortunately, I gave change as much chance as changing a race of 2 miles 7 furlongs and 58 yards to 4700 meters. Wink

Back to betting, money coming for Trump on polymarket

bbc.reporter

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There is a news update being shared in social media mentioning that Mark Zuckerburg who everyone know already is the CEO of Facebook has declared that he regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration in working with to censor information on the coronavirus in his social media platform.

It appears in this letter Zuckerburg has admitted that Facebook was pressured by the government to censor content and they also admitted to stop the circulation of the story about Biden's family and Burisma after it was proven not to be Russian disinformation.

JUST IN - Zuckerberg regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration to censor Covid era information online.

Source https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1828208501925257631?s=12&t=fx2RmsbaS0qNJTJTdpNu2w

Does this imply that Zuckerburg and Facebook has acknowledge this mistake to protect themselves because they speculate that Trump might win the election?

Webetcoins

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Quote from: stompix on August 26, 2024, 04:05:59 AM

How is that fair?
It's manipulating the system so that the outcome might not actually reflect the will of the majority! There is nothing fair in it, it's turning voting into a reality show. As for the odds only a few bookies still offer the popular vote, William is at 1.20 for Kamala.

It's not, it's unfair, it was never designed to be fair, it was designed to be close. With this method, there is nearly equal chances that Kamala or Trump could win, if we make it popular vote, or just simply give EC votes based on population, which is basically the same thing, Kamala wins, it's over and there is no elections.

I mean think about it, only once in the last 30+ years that they won, 32 or 33 years I believe, so we are talking about republican party literally gone. No congress, no senators, no presidents, while that may or may not be fair, it's clear that they would become a country that is ruled by democrats.

In fact, there would be no need for elections and just whoever is the nominee for democrats would win, sort of like California marks elections. I am not saying it's fair, I am just saying that they wanted equal chances, give the republicans a fighting chance, that's why they did it. I am explaining the reason, I am not saying it's good, I am just saying "why", I am not even American, so it is not up to me, I just wanted to help clarify why they ignore the majority of the voters, because if they don't, there won't be any elections left.

stompix

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Quote from: Webetcoins on August 26, 2024, 03:33:26 AM

Quote from: stompix on August 24, 2024, 02:15:48 PM

~

This works very well for republicans, gives them a chance to win, because if it was popular vote then they would all lose every single time, the odds for Kamala winning popular vote could be as low as 1.50 or even lower, because it's clear that she will, if it was all popular vote then we would have no contest, no republican would ever win. This is why, to keep it interesting and "fair" they made up this, and keep not touching it.

How is that fair?
It's manipulating the system so that the outcome might not actually reflect the will of the majority! There is nothing fair in it, it's turning voting into a reality show. As for the odds only a few bookies still offer the popular vote, William is at 1.20 for Kamala.

Quote from: Webetcoins on August 26, 2024, 03:33:26 AM

If it was adjusted to the population, then we would have states having different points for EC, but it is not touched, while New York grew in size much more, it didn't get much more EC points, and all of that, all that "gerrymandering" and EC, allowed republicans to have a chance.

New York is experiencing the 4th consecutive year of decline in raw population and 9th on the percentage of population compared to the entire country. Anyhow, this whole thing is ridiculous, the US is the last democratic country using this system, and if someone is going to tell me it's more democratic then Switzerland and Norway might want to say something.

Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on August 25, 2024, 12:13:31 PM

because the American people have seen that Trump has given them everything,

Trump has been president for 4 years and the only thing that he gave everyone was the middle finger!
https://prospect.org/politics/trumps-40-biggest-broken-promises/

Webetcoins

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Quote from: stompix on August 24, 2024, 02:15:48 PM

More populated states get more voting power anyhow.
The biggest disadvantage of this system is that you can basically lose with not a single vote in the major states, so no votes out of 100 million voters and then win by just 51% in the rest, so in theory, you could win the election by getting less than one-third of the votes.

For example California, Texas and Florida last time:
California   11,110,639   6,006,518
Florida   5,297,045    5,668,731
Texas   5,259,126    5,890,347

Bides got 21,666,810 and 55 electoral votes, Trump 17,565,596 and 67 electoral votes.
Does it look normal?

This works very well for republicans, gives them a chance to win, because if it was popular vote then they would all lose every single time, the odds for Kamala winning popular vote could be as low as 1.50 or even lower, because it's clear that she will, if it was all popular vote then we would have no contest, no republican would ever win. This is why, to keep it interesting and "fair" they made up this, and keep not touching it.

If it was adjusted to the population, then we would have states having different points for EC, but it is not touched, while New York grew in size much more, it didn't get much more EC points, and all of that, all that "gerrymandering" and EC, allowed republicans to have a chance. Do you think that nearly half of the nation would allow something like "we will do this, so you will never win ever again"? Of course not, they know they are the minority, they know that they will lose, so they try to keep whatever they can keep from this system.

LUCKMCFLY

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Quote from: criptoevangelista on August 22, 2024, 11:26:16 AM

I also believe that Trump will win, but the whole movement of the Obama family and the world media may confuse some voters thinking that Kamala Harris may be the favorite to win the presidential elections, this worries me a lot... Anyway, we will follow how things unfold over time... at first I am considering this Obama movement a kind of desperation on the left side of the force.

This will become increasingly heated for the Democratic politicians, because when they do the polls and they go so badly , things will become increasingly uphill for them, because the American people have seen that Trump has given them everything, even almost getting killed, being at that famous rally is something that people see, and people are Filled with feelings, and it is through feelings and being emotional that an election can also be won, because the masses move.

Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 39. (Read 15310 times)