Tonight is debate night and I am getting a feeling it will be very interesting.
Kamala's campaign has built a lot upon the strategy of attacking Trump just like he did with Hillary in 2016. They kind of got really organized and keep frontrunning him, attacking on aspects he could orchestrate an attack before he does. So it'll be interesting to see who's going to outwit who.
I'm fairly certain there's going to be quite a few attacks and policy will be in the sidelines. Certainly Kamala has many attack angles, while it's hard to latch onto something to attack her with as she's quite new. Will she stoop that low? If she does Donald has a good chance to play it out as being more classy which would be a huge twist. I'm counting on this and if Donald plays it safe maybe he'll come out on top..
Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 34. (Read 15314 times)
Amazingly it looks like we're headed straight to yet another Biden vs. Trump race.
This is the first time I am coming to this thread and in the Op I saw Donald Trump and Joe Biden as the forthcoming US election contesters. Though I am not from there but I believed the race now is between Donald Trump and Kalama Harris. So if the latter is the correct data for the candidates then the Op should edit the thread to change the two challenging actos to the current two candidatures of the General Election in US. And as it was said by others, US is different from third world countries so woman is allow to rule the State then Donald Trump should not overlook Kalama Harris because if really the people like her then, he will still lose but because of the use of bitcoin in his campaign manifestos, the election might not favour her.
(...) I think Kamala will win the election. That doesn't mean I like her. I'm thinking in terms of a winning bet. Of course, not with 100% certainty, but with a probability of ~ 55%.. This is my kind of subjective conclusion, which does not pretend to be true.
Calm down. Nobody is accusing you of liking Kamala, we all know that she has close to zero "positive" support (meaning people who would vote for her because they like what she represents). It's all about pro-Trumpers Vs anti-Trumpers, there's no such thing as pro-Kamala.
I know right?. People in the United States are not stupid enough yet to fully and sincerely support Kamala Harris for what she could actually represent, it is all about not allowing Trump to step into the White House again. In my humble opinion, people from the USA deserves more in terms of leadership, but they are trapped in a political duopoly by both the Republican and Democrat party, so the elite within the party takes advantage of this duopoly to push whatever they want, in the case of the democratic party: Kamala Harris. On the other hand, Donald Trump has taken the GOP hostage and he does not plan to let it go.
Also, Media does not seem to help either on defining what Kamala actually is, centrists will say she is an out-of-control communist, while the left believes she is not leftist enough for society to actually change for good.
(...) I think Kamala will win the election. That doesn't mean I like her. I'm thinking in terms of a winning bet. Of course, not with 100% certainty, but with a probability of ~ 55%.. This is my kind of subjective conclusion, which does not pretend to be true.
Calm down. Nobody is accusing you of liking Kamala, we all know that she has close to zero "positive" support (meaning people who would vote for her because they like what she represents). It's all about pro-Trumpers Vs anti-Trumpers, there's no such thing as pro-Kamala.
I wouldn't be surprised if she gets the win either. If her handlers were to tell her to tone down with controversial opinions (i.e. unrealised gains tax) and focus on just looking normal and not unhinged, she could jump up in polls. Trump has a solid base of boomer voters but seems to be losing the votes of younger conservatives, who are disappointed by his first-term as well as being pro-Israel first, rather than pro-USA.
Also, he has almost no 2016 vibe left.
I was looking at the results from RealClearPolling. Once again, Trump has pulled ahead, and their no-tossup map now shows 281 electoral votes for Trump, compared to 257 for Kamala. That said, Kamala is still leading the popular vote (which can be expected as red states are turning less red, and blue states are becoming deep blue). Pennsylvania seems to be the most crucial state at this point. It is changing hands every week or so. North Carolina is another swing state which is an absolute tossup at this point.
Amazingly it looks like we're headed straight to yet another Biden vs. Trump race.
This is the first time I am coming to this thread and in the Op I saw Donald Trump and Joe Biden as the forthcoming US election contesters. Though I am not from there but I believed the race now is between Donald Trump and Kalama Harris. So if the latter is the correct data for the candidates then the Op should edit the thread to change the two challenging actos to the current two candidatures of the General Election in US. And as it was said by others, US is different from third world countries so woman is allow to rule the State then Donald Trump should not overlook Kalama Harris because if really the people like her then, he will still lose but because of the use of bitcoin in his campaign manifestos, the election might not favour her. 
How often does vice-presidents become presidents in general ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States actually quite often. There is a possibility, that next time Harris would become a president, but this time it is going to be Trump.
How often does a president who lost his reelection campaign get elected again ie., non-consecutive terms? Only one dude achieved that way back in the 19th century. Statistics aren't everything basically.Also you have the issue of people not going to vote, but I guess a lot of people will vote in this election.
Yeah. This is a bigger issue than we think. So many voters skip elections completely due to various reasons which is why luck matters a lot in these sort of elections. 
~snip~
How can you be so sure? If it's just an intuition, or a preference, then there's no question. Because based on the current state of affairs, it is impossible to confidently name a winner. Too many multidirectional factors can affect the outcome of an election. I think Kamala will win the election. That doesn't mean I like her. I'm thinking in terms of a winning bet. Of course, not with 100% certainty, but with a probability of ~ 55%.. This is my kind of subjective conclusion, which does not pretend to be true.
How can you be so sure? If it's just an intuition, or a preference, then there's no question. Because based on the current state of affairs, it is impossible to confidently name a winner. Too many multidirectional factors can affect the outcome of an election. I think Kamala will win the election. That doesn't mean I like her. I'm thinking in terms of a winning bet. Of course, not with 100% certainty, but with a probability of ~ 55%.. This is my kind of subjective conclusion, which does not pretend to be true.
Yeah, I think the US election is still a very close race.
It could go either way really, specially given how the US voting system works. Small differences in one state can be propagated into the electoral votes and then you have a winner with less than 50% of the total votes.
Also you have the issue of people not going to vote, but I guess a lot of people will vote in this election.
I guess we're going to have to wait and see what happens.
but this time it is going to be Trump.
How can you be so sure? If it's just an intuition, or a preference, then there's no question. Because based on the current state of affairs, it is impossible to confidently name a winner. Too many multidirectional factors can affect the outcome of an election. I think Kamala will win the election. That doesn't mean I like her. I'm thinking in terms of a winning bet. Of course, not with 100% certainty, but with a probability of ~ 55%.. This is my kind of subjective conclusion, which does not pretend to be true.
I dont want and like to turn into direct politics discussion, but from the moment it was decided to replace Joe Bined with Kamala Harris, I think it was clear that Trump is going to win this race. You cant just promote Biden all the time, and on the finish line replace him. Not an expert in US history, but I dont remember that a woman was ever a president of the US. Again a signal for Trump. I dont know if it is possible to cheat during election, but it is clear for me that it is going to be Trump. However, I am not going to bet on US or any president election. I dont want to "earn" or peoples future. Who know what Trump second presidentship would be. What if his first decree would be a war against everyone, and I have earned with winning bet selecting him. That is not for me.
There hasn't been a woman president in the US, so if Harris wins, it would be historic.
For the same reason I think it's quite difficult that a woman would become president in the US, but also Trump has a lot of people against him.
But also a lot of people support Trump.
It's going to be quite difficult to predict I think.
She is first female vice-president so far. That already a huge achievement. I think such thing might work well. First female vice-president turns first female president. But isnt it enough for a start to be first female vice-president? I like her presidential program - she promises to "improve financial situation of a country" or something like that. So her fellow democratic party creates problems, and she as a democrat promises to fix them
Should they start with not creating problem at all? How often does vice-presidents become presidents in general ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States actually quite often. There is a possibility, that next time Harris would become a president, but this time it is going to be Trump.
I dont want and like to turn into direct politics discussion, but from the moment it was decided to replace Joe Bined with Kamala Harris, I think it was clear that Trump is going to win this race.
You couldn't be more wrong. On the contrary, Trump and his camp went haywire when Biden was replaced with Harris since they were not prepared for it thanks to which Harris actually has a decent chance of winning.Democrats want to sell that since they know they are way behind Trumps influence and they want people think that if they going to vote for Harris then people will be part of historic changes in US.
Silly reasoning. If Trump's influence was as good as you stated, he would have won the 2nd term instead of losing to Biden. The dude is only back in contention thanks to Biden messing up badly.It's clear that Kamala got ahead at the polls and still ahead right now, which goes to show you that she is a better candidate than Biden, but that is not because people love Kamala, we do not care, no democrat ever cares, it's not about that at all, if other side had someone like Mitt Romney or whatever, democrats wouldn't even go out to vote that much, at least ten million voters would stay at home, only reason why they would vote now, is not kamala, it is to make sure trump doesn't win.
That's an important difference and if they can do what they achieve, then Trump will never be candidate again, and then republicans can pick someone decent and they can win the next one much easier. If they pick some conservative traditional republican, in 2028 I can sense that we can actually break over 310 barrier in electoral voting, and we could see Republicans beat democrats in popular voting for the first time in over twenty years too. Just need someone decent and not trump.
It's interesting how much is at stake here for Trump and the republican party if he loses the election.
Much of his property has been devalued, seized or under receivership in indictments or in events relating to his presidency and the aftermath.
Yeah. It's all or nothing for him and his supporters at this stage. The dude also has to worry about the pending cases against him which could dent his chances of becoming the next president even more. Harris has way more funds in comparison.Much of his property has been devalued, seized or under receivership in indictments or in events relating to his presidency and the aftermath.
Trump is leading against Kamala with only 8% on Polymarket.
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1725946334167
These surveys, market polls etc are just useful for reference and never tell the complete story which is why depending on them completely is downright silly. https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1725946334167
I dont want and like to turn into direct politics discussion, but from the moment it was decided to replace Joe Bined with Kamala Harris, I think it was clear that Trump is going to win this race. You cant just promote Biden all the time, and on the finish line replace him. Not an expert in US history, but I dont remember that a woman was ever a president of the US. Again a signal for Trump. I dont know if it is possible to cheat during election, but it is clear for me that it is going to be Trump. However, I am not going to bet on US or any president election. I dont want to "earn" or peoples future. Who know what Trump second presidentship would be. What if his first decree would be a war against everyone, and I have earned with winning bet selecting him. That is not for me.
It appears to be very clear that Trump will win the presidential election on November after the assassination attempt on him by someone's Manchurian Candidate. However, after Biden was replaced by Kamala, the ratings of Trump has lowered to 50%. I was a very headshaking change and it would not be shocking if this is a manipulation, trending tactic by the administration. They have and control the machinery to make something like this very much possible.
Trump is leading against Kamala with only 8% on Polymarket.
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1725946334167
It's interesting how much is at stake here for Trump and the republican party if he loses the election.
Much of his property has been devalued, seized or under receivership in indictments or in events relating to his presidency and the aftermath.
And his new company, Truth Social, will likely go bankrupt shortly after Trump loses, of he loses, because all of its momentum is based on Trump's potential to become president. It's actually losing a lot of money and if it can't issue bonds it won't be able to rebound.
The republican party will have a very hard time getting rid of MAGA no matter how trump-centeic it was as a movement. Plus the wave of radicalization makes it look like there's no turning back for them.
Much of his property has been devalued, seized or under receivership in indictments or in events relating to his presidency and the aftermath.
And his new company, Truth Social, will likely go bankrupt shortly after Trump loses, of he loses, because all of its momentum is based on Trump's potential to become president. It's actually losing a lot of money and if it can't issue bonds it won't be able to rebound.
The republican party will have a very hard time getting rid of MAGA no matter how trump-centeic it was as a movement. Plus the wave of radicalization makes it look like there's no turning back for them.
That was before but long time ago Joe Biden has already conceded this race and gave up his candidacy already.
He has shown his support to Kamala Harris. So, this presidential election is now about Kamala Harris and Donald Trump although there are still a lot of names in there.
More precisely, during Joe Biden's term, he seemed to have failed to gain the trust of the people and the benefits behind him, his support was only at a relative level, instead of fiercely competing with strong opponents, he chose the wise strategy of supporting someone with the ability. And of course with two names Trump and Kamala Harris, it is difficult for him to side with his old opponent. Another problem is that Donald Trump will often be very strong in supporting and attracting voters, but the results in return are often not favorable, which makes us doubt that the presidential seat may belong to Kamala Harris.He has shown his support to Kamala Harris. So, this presidential election is now about Kamala Harris and Donald Trump although there are still a lot of names in there.
While his Vice President, Kamala Harris, she's more known and might be able to break the votes of the Trump voters and could trust her. At first she doesn't seen to be able to do that but right now, looks like she's on the right track.
I wonder where you are getting your information from, Harris is doing well in her campaign and the automatic endorsement by Biden, Obama, Clinton and others has helped her to be almost unanimously nominated by the Democratic party
Don't forget Putin's support
Frankly speaking, being endorsed by a president who was removed from the campaign because he wasn't doing well and another that was impeached isn't something she should brag about.
Also, the way she did not participate in the primaries, but still got to participate in the general election is a bit shady.
So you have either been trolled by Putin or you are trolling others on Putins behalf.
Think about that.
Is it in response to half of the "very best people" that worked in Trumps White House have actually endorsed Kamala?
The debate will be the one that changes the odds and the polls a lot. It's in 10th I think, not entirely sure but an article I just saw says 10th so I assume it's then. This time, mics will be turned off, and that means people can't interrupt each other, which we know Trump likes to do.
That's the reason why the mics will be turned off when it is not their turn, think about how much of a dick you have to be that they would have to turn your mic off when it is not your turn, this is a dude who can't even comprehend "wait your turn" and would have to be stopped technically just to make him shut up, and people are still willing to vote for him. In any case, I think Kamala will eat him up, but Trump still has a chance to win because he does apply to more rural areas and rural areas wins elections.
Some of the conditions that's been reported to be adopted in the debate have NEVER been used before in any US presidential debate and that's why I think the organizers of the debate are trying their best to favour Kamala Harris as well as help him win the heart of the American electorates through the debate. The good thing for the Republicans about the whole thing is that Donald Trump is one man that's very vocal to express himself anytime, any day and that's why I'm very confident that he'll still come out top at the end of the debate. That's the reason why the mics will be turned off when it is not their turn, think about how much of a dick you have to be that they would have to turn your mic off when it is not your turn, this is a dude who can't even comprehend "wait your turn" and would have to be stopped technically just to make him shut up, and people are still willing to vote for him. In any case, I think Kamala will eat him up, but Trump still has a chance to win because he does apply to more rural areas and rural areas wins elections.
I wonder where you are getting your information from, Harris is doing well in her campaign and the automatic endorsement by Biden, Obama, Clinton and others has helped her to be almost unanimously nominated by the Democratic party
Don't forget Putin's support
Frankly speaking, being endorsed by a president who was removed from the campaign because he wasn't doing well and another that was impeached isn't something she should brag about.
Also, the way she did not participate in the primaries, but still got to participate in the general election is a bit shady.
Some of the conditions that's been reported to be adopted in the debate have NEVER been used before in any US presidential debate and that's why I think the organizers of the debate are trying their best to favour Kamala Harris as well as help him win the heart of the American electorates through the debate. The good thing for the Republicans about the whole thing is that Donald Trump is one man that's very vocal to express himself anytime, any day and that's why I'm very confident that he'll still come out top at the end of the debate.
Isn't it better if we just tell ourselves the truth? Donald is against LGBTq,... I mean, if he becomes the president, he could pass whatever law he wants -- just like he did the last time and that's fine. The good thing is how intensional Donald was in his first sitting; let's look at the rate of insurgencies in the US today. Is it comparable to the last 5 years ? What does the chart look like??
Some of the conditions that's been reported to be adopted in the debate have NEVER been used before in any US presidential debate and that's why I think the organizers of the debate are trying their best to favour Kamala Harris as well as help him win the heart of the American electorates through the debate. The good thing for the Republicans about the whole thing is that Donald Trump is one man that's very vocal to express himself anytime, any day and that's why I'm very confident that he'll still come out top at the end of the debate.
Isn't it better if we just tell ourselves the truth? Donald is against LGBTq,... I mean, if he becomes the president, he could pass whatever law he wants -- just like he did the last time and that's fine. The good thing is how intensional Donald was in his first sitting; let's look at the rate of insurgencies in the US today. Is it comparable to the last 5 years ? What does the chart look like?? Jump to: