Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 45. (Read 15349 times)

Are you sure you wanted to reply to this actual post? Because I'm afraid, it doesn't seem what you are saying has any direct link with what STT and I have discussed so far. Notwithstanding, with respect to what you narrated, regardless of what you feel, every country has their electoral law and it must be strictly adhered to. Also, haven't you heard about the Electoral College as part of the US electoral system? If you did, you would know that your point of one state having more population is not necessary as the electoral collection has addressed that. That is why a popular vote of a certain candidate doesn't translate to his/her victory.

If the latest surveys and polls are only fake news, I reckon that this might be a very good opportunity to bet on Trump while his odds are being offered generously by the oddsmakers and the prediction markets.

In any case, after the debate on September 10, we might witness the polls and surveys again change on Trumps side. This Kamala Harris has been shown that she is not a very intelligent person hehehe.



Former President Donald Trump says he has agreed to an offer from ABC News to debate Vice President Kamala Harris on Sept. 10.

Trump said so during a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago Club on Thursday.

"I look forward to the debates because I think we have to set the record straight," he said.

Source https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-agreed-offer-abc-news-debate-harris/story?id=112685962

I can believe it in raw votes that a democratic nominee is ahead in the polls.  Popular vote lying with the standing administration makes some sense, its why I always thought Biden had an advantage.  They just didnt believe in Biden and his cracked facade due to old age & passing the test of the overall population.

It does make some sense that the edges of that voting base who didnt want to vote for Biden, due to age or just a lack of clarity and verve perhaps and now they are again willing to say in a poll I will vote.   Out of sight both parties have their ways of testing with a selected crowd potential support for a candidate.

  If Trump chose Vance without checking numbers on that choice beforehand then he messed up because now you cant take it back.  The Dems definitely will have checked the numbers beforehand for Harris before awarding that job no contest to her.   The actual nomination at this stage is for show, its already a done deal and Biden stepping aside as a candidate this late has possibly not happened before, I think Johnson was in March or April he stood down.

It can still go wrong from here and swing to either party, the main point of analysis will be the debate of which I only expect 1 to occur.  Trump said also NBC and FOX but Im not thinking that occurs.
    The other jitter is markets, the shock and sell off that occurred recently in markets was a decades level high of fear though its dropped back already; we can take away from that markets can still crash before November.
  Possibly the economy is a determining factor still.

There was no hype, even without the assassination attempt, most voters would have chosen Trump. But now I see funny "news" that Harris is already ahead of Trump by 5% in the preference rating. Does anyone believe it? She has never won a primary or any election, she is literally zero in terms of popularity and charisma, but media propaganda convinces people that she is already ahead of Trump. Nonsense. But nevertheless, such brazen manipulations are reflected in the betting/prediction markets.

WHOAH! First time I see Kamala having lower odds than trump! It seems like really it'll be a battleground this year again. States that are undecided and could swing will be really important again.

Just the other day, Joe Rogan, known as the world's most successful podcaster, endorsed Robbert F. Kennedy for president. Amazingly, RFK also got the support of other podcasters that normally have right wing or "alternative" audiences. Tim Pool and even Russell Brand endorsed RFK!

Russel Brand is more left leaning so this shows that definetely RFK is a danger to both major parties. But surely mostly to Trump as most of his endorsements come from the right. Let alone the fact that left leaning voters have more options on the left also.

This surely will have an impact on Rogan's young male audience who were very likely to vote for Trump. And the fact that Trump didn't cut it for someone like Rogan is telling. Trump's campaign has been fumbling to find points to grap on to get people's attention and votes after Biden dropped out.

I am not quite certain on the latest polls and surveys, however, it appears that after the speculations and predictions that the assassination attack on Trump has given him a certainty to win the presidency, this is not true! The Trump hype is decreasing according to the predictors in Polymarket.

I have a prediction that the debate on September will give the advantage again to Trump. If this prediction is wrong, this will be headshaking for the Republicans hehehehehe.  



https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1723171447252

Whatever negatives that are there with Biden will be amplified manyfold in case Harris becomes the President of the United States. Under a possible Harris presidency, millions more of illegal aliens will cross over to the United States. Inflation will be higher, taxes will go up, and there will be more wasteful spending. On the other hand, Trump is someone who understands business and can keep things under his control. Anyway, nowadays elections in US are hardly being fought on the capabilities of candidates. It is now about the right vs left narrative.

I am not sure if it's that fair. Saying that "if we do that then some states will not have a voice" as a defense, means that bigger states do not have their population counted at all. That makes no sense, just because California and New York has a lot of people, does that mean only some of those people should be eligible and the rest is not?

A tiny state has half the votes that they have? When their population is ten times bigger? That makes no sense to me. Popular vote is the way to go, it makes sense and it allows that everyone gets an equal share.

There is no "state" when you are picking the president of the whole nation, that means every single human should be counted as one vote. If republicans trust themselves so much, let it be popular vote, they won't because they know that they will never win the election ever again, they will lose miserably every single time.

If you make it popular vote, it's clear that the nation prefers democrat candidate, republicans won the popular vote like twice or something in over 30 years, hence it should be clear that they are complaining about illegals and all that trying to grasp the last straws to have a possibility to win. They know that the nation doesn't want them by large majority.

That statement regarding to be possible the first female candidate give some statement that she could bring something new to US that's why she's still relevant as big opponent of Trump in their presidential bid.

But aside from that I guess there's no other thing make here stronger so I guess all has been hyped with current issues has been discussed by Trump and many people look forward that everything would really happen under his term. Right now if we look at the current situation we could able to see that Trump is really dominating. But let see on upcoming months if there's changes and candidates should do more better since they really need to have good convincing power to get those votes.

Right now I go with current strongest since I  also thin that Trump has more higher chance to win among the other candidates.

Illegals do vote in American elections. No matter how much the Democrats try to shout you down when you raise this topic, it happens on industrial scale. I don't think that in any other nation in the world, people are allowed to vote without the requirement of a government ID. Here in India, we have a list of 4-5 ID documents that can be used to verify your identity before voting. If you can't present them, then you will not be allowed to vote. As simple as that. But no such mechanism exists in the US, thanks to the Dems.

I'm surprised to see the odds on Trump so high.  2.1:1 at the moment which is quite a bit higher than they were pre-Kamala.  I'm taking advantage and stacking a bet with Team USA to win the gold medal.  This makes quite a few bets I have on old Donald come November.  Hopefully the country doesn't do something monumentally stupid.  Can't put it passed large groups of people to do the worst possible thing, but I remain hopeful.  I'll admit though, seeing the lines of illegals waiting for licenses so they can vote (yes, illegals vote and democrats oppose actual checks to keep it from happening) does make me worry a bit.

The situation is simple; Republicans will try to make gerrymandering an issue, and try to make sure that they can make voting as hard as possible for people who would be willing to vote, and I mean legal voters, I do not believe in the fairy tales of republicans that illegals vote, there has been 4 cases found in total of 150+ million voters last time, but they keep telling the same lie.

So the outcome is this; if republicans can make voting very hard, democrats will not have a choice but not to vote because they have to go to work and have other stuff so voting for democrats will be lesser.

BUT if democrats all go out to vote? They are so much more than republicans that Kamala would get 300+ electoral votes, she will win easily and by a huge margin as well, it would not be close. So it is al about who will go out to vote, we all know republicans will vote, it's in their DNA, they vote for even the smallest things, but dems do not go out to vote for even presidency, if they do, trump has no chance.

There is always a lot of drama with elections in the United States, there are 2 sides that use everything to achieve their objectives, and in that sense, rumor is something that the media uses to excess, but in that idea, "the collapse" is something that the Americans really know how to handle well, and they do it because whoever is in the control room always gets the money to keep the economy afloat, either by adding more debt or printing greenbacks.

No. I don't agree with this argument. Harris is too far to the left and that makes her a worse candidate when compared to Joe Biden. The only advantage for her at the moment is that the argument for the first female president of the United States is going to help her. But in swing states, the popularity of Harris is much lower when compared to that of Trump. Unless Harris can find a way to increase her support levels in states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, she doesn't stand a chance to win the elections.

It's gonna be a hard work for her to win on this upcoming election. However, Harris will make a good contender to fight Trump rather than Biden. She has the health to continue doing political activities. Let us see how the pulse of people will change in the next couple of months.

Well, I am a person who can be critical from the point of view that some governments like in the USA do control many things, and only their effect or influence can make the markets fall or even rise, it is a fact that a crash in the markets is expected, but this should have happened in 2020-2021 but everything was diverted thanks to the covid 19 effect, which left everyone speechless, somehow things are delayed, but it is a fact that the world economy is in a silent recession, and whoever has not seen it only has to look at the charts and analyze the volume and degree of fear of investors, I would blame 75% on the effects of the US government, the rest on "several".

That is the problem for Harris now, we know she is going to win the popular vote but on the swing states Trump has a chance, and it is obvious that her choice for VP was based on what was best to increase her chances to win those states, but I am not so sure if it is going to be enough to tip the scales on her favor, especially since so little time remains, as there are states in which some early voting will take place in September and October, so she needs results and she needs them fast, and the current drop on the stock market is not playing on her favor at all.

These polls in my opinion don't mean much, it's perhaps some ploy by the media sector to get people to vote for Kamala Harris, after all, a person with leftist ideals is all the mainstream media wants. I still think that Donald Trump will be the big winner of this election, unless there is some kind of fraud in the elections.

With 3 months to go, the polls are suddenly showing Kamala Harris in the lead. I am not sure how reliable these are. During the last few days, polls from Marquette, Economist/YouGov, NPR/PBS/Marist, I&I/TIPP, SurveyUSA and Morning Consult have put Harris ahead. The last one to have Trump leading was published many days back, by Rasmussen Reports. Anyway, Trump is still going strong in most of the swing states, which means that the bump for Harris might have occurred in deep-blue states such as California. 

This is considered a conspiracy theory as well. I heard of that project 2025 but surprisingly people are not up to believe what the government or the media is saying anymore conspiracy or not. One conspiracy theory to believe in is that whether Trump or Kamala will win, the people know it's not them who will decide what is good for the people.  We saw what happened to Joe who are not aware of where he is but is still considered the POTUS. Who decides what is to be decided since his dementia got worse? I'm sure it's not him.  The cognitive ability doesn't matter whether far right or left is the one sitting on the Whitehouse.