Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 46. (Read 15349 times)

I am pretty sure most of the people here who have bets on either Trump or Kamala Harris have heard about project 2025. Do you think there is a chance that project becoming a mainstream taking point could influence over the odds of Trump? So far I have not noticed anything, I was expecting the Odds of Trump to increase a bit.

It seems there are few topics which could influence in the odds and chances of Trump to win the elections, in the eyes of bettors.
Don't you think it is weird something like cognitive decline or cognitive ability has more weight on this election than some alledged plan by the right wing to take over the government of the United States?, as if people who bet did not even care about the existence of such alledged plans..

Rumors problem of significant market decline is not only about Kamala Harris actions but also what Biden did, but this is just problem that is not felt by everyone but only few people who are indeed related to the cryptocurrency industry.
Because basically Biden, who also supports Kamala Harris, has quite lot of loyal supporters who are always trying to get more support.
In terms of betting on both of them becoming candidates who can compete fiercely, Trump looks more superior with the predicted chance of victory that can be obtained absolutely, but no one knows what will happen next.
If Trump can start fixing everything and really provide solutions and also efforts to overcome problem about the US economic system that might happen, then I sure he will still get lot of sympathy from most US citizens and that is very beneficial for Trump.

Yeah, I do agree that refund should be the best recourse of action from gambling casinos as Biden is out already. And I saw that it had open up and listed Kamala already, and with that the bookies could have refunded by this time.

But not sure if those who beat on Biden might go the same with Kamala. Although Kamala might have closing the gap, Trump still leads so they might have to think twice again betting on Harris.

I hope so.

That's a money that's surely a lose already to them as they're not going to get any refund anymore. And I agree, everyone should take a closer look to their terms.

So, when things like things happens, they're aware whether it is going to be a favor to them or not.

I am aware arbitrage takes the control and keep the odds in equilibrium within the whole crypto ecosystem. There is always people with enough balance in their hands to take advantage even from the slightest differences between a market and another one.
By the way, people treat polls and the betting market differently, some will tell you there is more reality on the betting markets as there is no only people saying who they want or think is going to win the presidency, on the betting markets people need to put money where their mouth is to have a say, otherwise they do not participate. I don't know, but I personally give more credit to betting markets than opinion polls.


Those people who went for small casino which cannot refund the money probably betted using money they could afford to lose, hopefully.
That is why in the terms of service one is always supposed to take a look on what happens to money when the results are not resolved as initially thought, like this case of Biden dropping out, for example.

That's right, I can say that the best things that Trump can Show politically is that he has a big Advantage, now, the markets are going down a lot, it is rumored that it is because of Kamala Harris's action, so in this aspect things can take a different approach, I could see that it is because of that action, I have not followed much of the things she has said or stated, but there is a certain level of mistrust and the bad thing is that it could affect the economic system , it is said that there could be a crash of the US Economic system.

Some issues will arise if the US follow your advice on voting and I do not see anything wrong in conducting the needed biometrics for the benefit of a fair election in this technological age. If developing countries are conducting it for such an electoral process, how much more is the US which many countries are behind them in technology?

And for the record, the US electoral system is very fair and unique and I wonder why tax records should only be the requirement to be eligible to vote. If it is done that way, mentally ill people, underage citizens, non-US citizens, and even convicts of some dangerous felonies will be eligible to vote. This is against not only the US law but also international laws.

Sadly, that can happen for those small time casinos and they cannot do a full refund anymore. They'd for sure gonna pocket the money and that's a sure lose to those bettors that have believed on Biden's reelection.

You're right that they can easily play on the terms and conditions that they have and they have no control over their users bets if they have ever got it wrong on Biden.

That's just truly sad.

Odds on crypto sites are provided by the same book maker. Even if a site calculates its own odds then if there are big differences there would be arbitrage and the odds close the differences pretty fast.

So I don't know if these odds are indicative of anything. People think Trump is going to win regardless of polls. Because aggregates still show he is ahead on average across polling, although democrats improved their percentages with Kamala.

But let's keep in mind that also the result isn't just the percentage. Hilary lost the presidency even though she won the popular vote for instance.

In most of the gambling sites there were two bets, one was that you can bet on the president's name like Biden or Trump etc and the other one was you can bet on the party like the democratic party or republican party. This 2nd bet stays valid no matter who is representing the party but the bet made on the present name should be void and refunded.
If they want they can again place the bet on the new party leader or chose any other once they are refunded.
I place my bet on Donald Trump so that should remain valid  

Bets sliding


As for crypto users who cheer for Trump Bitcointalk users really need to get out of their bubble:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1eig7il/donald_trump_planning_to_make_a_national_shitcoin/

The amount of crypto users (who don't get paid for 4 lines of spam quota) calling Trump an imbecile who doesn't; know how crypto works at all is telling a different story about those millions of votes.

I have mentioned before that I believe it is highly dependant on the terms and conditions of each casino or book we decide to stake out money on, to be honest. There will be casinos with enough liquidity and reputation so they will refund the money, since Joe Biden decided he is not suitable to seek for a re-election this year, while on the other hand, casinod with less liquidity and those who are shady could take advantage of this situation and try to pocket the money for their own, pointing out at their terms of service and saying those bettors who had s stake on Joe Biden that a candidate giving up their candidacy is considered to be a loss of their bet by default.
I did not have a stake on Joe, (I almost did, though) so I am not sure how casinos are dealing with the situation..

Why not do it like all the other nations in the world and just give ID when someone is born? It's that simple, you are born, your parent takes your birth certificate that the hospital gives them, and they go to a government agency, show the paper, and get an ID for you, the moment you are born.

It's literally the simplest thing in the entire world, that way, if someone illegally comes to your nation, they can't possibly have that ID, because they weren't born there, and if they are legally there but not allowed to vote, they still don't have an ID, it's literally only two kinds of people, one is the people who are born there and the other is the people who become citizens there legally. That's it, literally the whole entire world does this, in Europe this has been established for like 100 years now.

To think that social security number or drivers license or whatever the hell they think would be good enough is the stupid part. That's what USA is basically all about, let's use pounds instead of kilo, let's use yards instead of meter, let's use social security number instead of a normal ID, they keep trying to make things more and more complicated, for absolutely no gain at all, and just downside. If they do it the way I am saying, they would not have any issues at all, plus add in a voting vacation on the vote day, which should be Sunday anyway, and make everyone have free holiday that day, then everyone would vote too, it's that simple.

No idea but it's fair for the casino to do a refund. Those that have bet for it might look at their casino accounts and check if the casino returned it to them.

They all have the powers to do it so, I guess that switching candidate should be the bettors discretion after they refund it and shouldn't happen automatically.

The last President to step down from a 2nd attempt at re-election to President was Lyndon Johnson apparently.  I dont think the bookies were taking bets back then with any detail about refunds, we are lacking precedent in that possibility.

  It is very unlikely an outcome, ideally people would get their money back or be transferred onto a bet on the actual Democratic nomination which is now Harris.   It depends on how specific was that bet on the outcome, they may say zero till Election day results possibly.


Never read that before, he had alot of stress no doubt.

I guess I'd have to do a little more digging. I thought by now some bookies might have resolved the bets but seems that's not the case (yet). Refund should be the optimal case forward and just open new markets for Kamala. And yes, I second your opinion about setting the presidential race markets on parties rather than candidates since we can have multiple candidates for a single party over the course of presidential race / campaign period.

No clue but I'd have to think that any bet on biden shoukd be refunded.  If you bet on the democratic party to win then I can see why they would not refund people because it insinuated that no matter who it is you are betting on the party rather than the person.  If you bet on biden specifically I'd be surprised as to what happens in terms of tlrefunds because there are tons of bets on him already.  Same with Trump, if the democratic party withdraws and changes then do.ypu thing that the betting houses will void the trump bets?  His withdraw definitely screwd things up.

Guys, now that Joe Biden is out of the presidential race, do we have any confirmed info on what happens to already placed bets on Biden? I'd expect those to be refunded. I'm asking this in advance incase we get to see any more surprises with the current line up of candidates because Democrats can just switch candidate again if they feel like Kamala Harris won't generate enough traction to win it.

What is your source of information to say Democrats have already registered illegal inmigrants to vote in the United States in the coming election? because of anyone has any information about it and actual proof of such a thing happening, it would be enough for get several people in the democrat party arrested and tried for breaking federal laws within the country. Needless to say having illegal aliens to vote in a presidential election is completely illegal and it would imply other crimes, like usupation of identity and forgery of official documents.
Besides, the United States economy does not seem to be going so bad, at least in the stock market, during the presidency of Joe Biden we continue to see records of the prices of the main blue chip stocks in that country, if there was a recession, aren't stock supposed to go down for a long period of time ?

This is not nice, you should not make assumptions like that without showing your support, and not even from being USA to make that assumption and not living in those states. As someone who had a friend move from New York to Miami, I can tell you that they are moving to states that are republican, but to the cities that are still democrat. Texas has Austin, and Florida has Miami. The "main" reason (while I agree crime is of course high) is economy, because trump gave tax brakes to his buddies who are billionaires, and free money when he printed TRILLIONS, whereas poor people got shifted.

The extra moving in the last 4 years all have to do with the fact that Trump ruined middle class and made rich richer and covid made middle class have hard time finding a job. So it felt simpler to move from expensive states like New York and Cali, to poor states like Texas and Florida, it's that simple.

In Democrat run states, you can see people making insane amount of money, California is top 10 in GDP if it was a nation, and we all know how rich New Yorkers can be, not all but pretty rich at the top. So people who are not rich, couldn't handle it and went to republican run states because republican run states are just simply poor, exclude energy and taxes is a third world nation levels of income.