2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 64.

Hispo

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on June 08, 2024, 01:13:46 AM

. Nevertheless, I just don't like arrogance, so regardless of losing my money, I must bet on Joe Biden and the election will be keenly contested like before.

I don't understand your point of view, to be honest. You as a gambler, should have on among your biggest interests (when comes to betting) the potential profit of the fact you can profit of your choices, otherwise, what would be the point on betting in favor of Biden and against Trump?
The market of betting is about making profits, actually, I am sure there are people out there in this market who does not like Trump as a person or leader and still they believe he has better chances than Biden, so they bet in his favor. Politics and betting should not get mixed between each other, because in the end of the day, we are here to profit from this political even, regardless on who is on the ballot.
If you are rather moved to support Biden, instead trying to get profit, then you should donate to his campaign of to his party, that is a more coherent way to show political support than betting.
Because even if he loses, the money you donated to the campaign helped him to try get as far as possible, on the other hand, If you bet for him and he loses, then you money just changes hands to someone who is likely opposing to your political views.

STT

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I think Biden takes the nomination of the Democratic party and likely wins despite those odds, he is the sitting president and thats historic precedent in the majority of outcomes. However politics is increasingly heading towards wild card outcomes, I very often hear voters say they arent happy voting for any party.

Polls dont seem to mirror the electoral college as well as they should. Trump has alot of support but its the range of state wins that counts in the end, he got the 2016 win by capturing middle america, the coasts have the numbers in people but also its the amount of land and states won.

Even though USA elections are relatively predictable still I wouldnt want to rule out that either candidate from age could fail to qualify for office, die even is quite possible. So maybe the vice president is the real value bet on either side if the odds are good, as its more likely to occur then expected. The bets for a specific person if this occurs before election day get cancelled or Im not sure really

EarnOnVictor

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Oh, I see, Donald Trump has an odd of 1.70 and Joe Biden has 2.55 on Stake, that's nice and the person(s) who prepared this table might have had some beliefs to have made them think that Trump will win. But for me, I choose Joe Biden to win, more money to my bag...

To be honest with you, I don't have a serious reason for that because Joe Biden has made a lot of mistakes this time, even as Trump continues to leverage on division preachings as usual. Nevertheless, I just don't like arrogance, so regardless of losing my money, I must bet on Joe Biden and the election will be keenly contested like before.

Hispo

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Quote from: cabron on June 07, 2024, 04:09:01 AM

Quote from: OgNasty on June 06, 2024, 03:10:07 PM

🍑.

If there is someone more qualified, he has to step up and get some sense of what is happening. It doesn't make sense to have a president inside a cell but if this is what it takes, I think people will just take that chance as we see on polls. The only adult in the room is Donald. He may always be trolling, but his judgment is still better than Joe's.

Quote

Trump 1.70
Biden 2.55

🍑

There is indeed more qualified people and more serious people within the world of American politics who would be a better job as president of the United States than Jode Biden or Donald Trump,.but unfortunately the current political system in that country is designed to be and to be kept as a duopoly, total dominance shared between the Republican party and the Democrat party. If there was a third option for the people to band together and go it, then it would be an option for that qualified person to step up and try to break the duopoly, however this current status quo is so stiff that even big corporate media and TV channels would ignore the third way and only focus on the Democrat and Republican options.

On a side note, it is quite remarkable how the odds have shifted in favor of Trump even after being declared to be guilty as a felon in the NY state... I would have expected to see a negative change in the odds for Trump after the end of his first criminal trial, and still, he is the preferred candidate by bettors... I am starting to believe he indeed has.a good chance to be the first president to govern the country from within a cell or house arrest...

cabron

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Quote from: OgNasty on June 06, 2024, 03:10:07 PM

I'm unsure if Biden will end up being the candidate. I think I'm more certain that Biden will not be the next President than I am that Trump will be. There's just no world where someone in Joe Biden's condition is the best candidate for President of the United States. I'm suffering from secondhand embarrassment for the democratic party. This current administration has to be one of the worst in the history of the world in my opinion. Sure, they will try to cheat the election again (confirmed again yesterday in Arizona), but at this point I think their support is so low, even with cheating I don't think they can win.

If there is someone more qualified, he has to step up and get some sense of what is happening. It doesn't make sense to have a president inside a cell but if this is what it takes, I think people will just take that chance as we see on polls. The only adult in the room is Donald. He may always be trolling, but his judgment is still better than Joe's.

Quote

Trump 1.70
Biden 2.55

Still, odds to bet. It could change still as Biden is about to snatch the votes of crypto users. I don't know if they believe who knows.

OgNasty

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I'm unsure if Biden will end up being the candidate. I think I'm more certain that Biden will not be the next President than I am that Trump will be. There's just no world where someone in Joe Biden's condition is the best candidate for President of the United States. I'm suffering from secondhand embarrassment for the democratic party. This current administration has to be one of the worst in the history of the world in my opinion. Sure, they will try to cheat the election again (confirmed again yesterday in Arizona), but at this point I think their support is so low, even with cheating I don't think they can win.

cabron

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Quote from: Hispo on June 06, 2024, 11:36:43 AM

Quote from: STT on June 03, 2024, 08:00:39 AM

🍑

He can certainly appeal and he is already working on it. But since I am not an expert on those kinds of things, and how the criminal law applies in the United States, it would be worth asking: does not he get the tag or get labeled as a convinced felon in the eyes of the American law system? or is it supposed to be waited after the appeal before he can get tagged as a felon.?
Because, to be honest, I believe there are many people within the country who identify themselves as Republicans and yet they have a high enough moral bar so they would not vote for a person who was found auikty of a felony in the State of New York (there are several other cases pending).

Being a felon could make Trump to lose the vote of the moderate Republicans, those who are not going to vote for a democrat in any situation, but still they could not find themselves to send a felon to the white house. I am expecting to see how this conviction and the appeal could change they odds on the betting markets in the end (assuming there will be even a reaction by the markets).

You mean the American people would rather endure another 4 years of Biden than voting someone who can stop the crazy policies in their country?
It's their last chance before the border crisis is going to invade them all. And when they can't feed them all, the hungry illegal migrants will intrude on every home just to find a jar of salt.

It's their last chance to say enough to Joe without actually saying it.

Sithara007

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According to RealClearPolitics, Trump is still leading Biden by an average of 0.5%. The spread has narrowed, but Trump has remained ahead more than 90% of the time in the last 12 months. And due to peculiarities in US election system, it is possible for the GOP candidate to win election, even if he trails the popular vote by 2-3%. Given this, +0.5% lead for Trump would mean an electoral landslide after 5 months, when the votes will be counted. Still, 5 months is a long time and a lot can happen by then.

Hispo

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Quote from: STT on June 03, 2024, 08:00:39 AM

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He can certainly appeal and he is already working on it. But since I am not an expert on those kinds of things, and how the criminal law applies in the United States, it would be worth asking: does not he get the tag or get labeled as a convinced felon in the eyes of the American law system? or is it supposed to be waited after the appeal before he can get tagged as a felon.?
Because, to be honest, I believe there are many people within the country who identify themselves as Republicans and yet they have a high enough moral bar so they would not vote for a person who was found auikty of a felony in the State of New York (there are several other cases pending).

Being a felon could make Trump to lose the vote of the moderate Republicans, those who are not going to vote for a democrat in any situation, but still they could not find themselves to send a felon to the white house. I am expecting to see how this conviction and the appeal could change they odds on the betting markets in the end (assuming there will be even a reaction by the markets).

bbc.reporter

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@STT. I very much agree which I speculate that the sportsbooks and prediction markets offers to not be the correct odds. The present odds of 1.70 is an overestimation of Trump's victory, I reckon. The news media outlets presently also appear to be overestimating Trumps odds on winning on November. This is certainly very head shaking. They reporting this with the assumption that the prediction market on Polymarket us a source of truth.

Trump Conviction Barely Dents His Odds of Winning Election: Prediction Markets

Plus: Polymarket traders doubt Trump will go to prison; Kalshi bettors are at odds with the CME FedWatch poll on rate cuts.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2024/06/03/trump-conviction-barely-dents-his-odds-of-winning-election-prediction-markets/

STT

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I dont think the trial makes a difference to Trump getting in at this point, no elaborate point is required as to the reason why either. Its simply that the trial is not over until you exhaust all appeals, so you have the first verdict but not the final verdict and nothing is going to happen conclusively before the election.

I dont even guess that he will win but I wouldn't say its any less likely because of this trial. I do think he had already lost as least some of the middle ground in the electoral college of voters which is what he needed for the overall win.

Casdinyard

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Quote from: alani123 on March 11, 2024, 07:17:53 AM

Let's have a thread to discuss gambling on the 2024 United States Presidential election!
Remember: This is a thread about gambling, we go by the official results. For disputing past events you can go on the politics board.

Amazingly it looks like we're headed straight to yet another Biden vs. Trump race.

It's also a first for this year's race for how old both candidates are. Interestingly, bookmakers have added several other picks to the table other than Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The chances of either dying prior to the race aren't that unlikely it seems. Also in the case of Donald Trump, several cases are proceeding in the courts, which some are speculating might hinder his bid to the presidency.

Image source via Stake

Let's discuss the likelihood of each candidate winning the election, events, as well as which platforms offer this market for crypto-enabled bets.

Honestly can't wrap my head around the fact that the US is going to re-elect a convicted felon, and that his greatest electoral adversary is a senile clown who's getting puppeteered by the party he's in so they can abuse the hell out of the system. I think it's about time they choose someone else, and that they actually find a more capable candidate, preferably someone who's got his/her pulse in the current situation of the country and everything else, not someone with outdated visions and ideas about how the world works, and most definitely someone who's not senile and sleepy all the time.

Shit goes to the drain I'm gonna urge my naturalized relatives to vote Kanye West instead lol. No way in hell they are the two most prominent candidates in this electoral run, we got a shitshow in the Philippines ourselves but at the very least the contender is pretty much the most capable politician this country could ever have and offer.

If Trump wins this election we're all fucked, if Biden wins this we are kinda fucked, we have to choose among lesser evils here unfortunately which is kinda messed up if I do say so myself.

bbc.reporter

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What does everyone speculate on Trump's chance on being nominated as the official candidate for the Republicans after his conviction as a felon? Is it very much possible for them to support another candidate or is it late to make another choice? I reckon the other candidates are not as popular as him.

In any case, the prediction market Polymarket appears to imply that it will remain to be Trump vs. Biden. If you bet on this not being Trump vs. Biden, you will win 733%.

https://polymarket.com/event/trump-and-biden-both-win-nomination?tid=1717386669450

ChiBitCTy

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Quote from: alani123 on June 01, 2024, 06:59:17 PM

I see now media are trying to use Trump's conviction in the supposed hush money trial against him, even going as far as to use a poll where people where asked if they approve the conviction or not against him politically. Well, people might approve of the conviction and still vote for him, has anyone thought of that? There's tons of reasons to dislike Biden (I like doing genocide) Joe and using political donations wrongly isn't worse than the things he has done. So even if the conviction was based on such evidence I don't think people voting will care. If anything, it'll probably give Trump more leverage.

"Well, people might approve of the conviction and still vote for him, has anyone thought of that?" I mean yeah anyone whos not a complete moron. I mean from a betting standpoint this whole thing is kind of fun, as it's about as bizarre as it gets. From a real world and real consequence standpoint, it's insane that anyone would fully and truly support either of these fools.

As an Independent it's really hard for me to understand how anyone could be so far left or so far right. Both parties such ass. But again, this is one crazy bet lol. Insert deep breath/disbelief emoji.

OcTradism

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Quote from: dansus021 on June 02, 2024, 08:46:31 PM

Hahhaha Kinda agree with all of that I might have gone to far hahaha and watch a lot of conspiracy theory tho all of that is personal opinion and maybe some youtube words haha. I'm not a US citizen, and yes the Trump has a lot of legal problem but I don't he is going to jail hahah after all he is a businessman and ex-president he might have a lot of connections.

Trump did not make all things right but he is human like all of us. Investigation, counts against him are mostly pure personal political attacks from the Banana Republic.

I see all 34 guilty counts on him days ago are big changes for him toward the President Election in November. It can change a lot in his race against Biden and I believe Biden team and his party actually made big mistakes by abuse the law to attack Trump. Think why did they do that?

If they are not fearful about probability that Trump will beat Biden in the Election, they would have not went ahead with such awkward attacks on Trump.

I think days ago, we witnessed a big twist for this Election.

dansus021

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Quote from: boltz on May 31, 2024, 01:10:57 PM

Quote from: dansus021 on May 31, 2024, 10:02:44 AM

2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! Trump wins again, and Biden loses I believe this way Im not from the United States but the US president election is crucial to the world since US has biggest economy right now so the any president can direct the economy, war and etc.

When biden get elected so many wars is happening and geopolitics is boiling hot and when trump takes the seat trump only hate china because he doesn't want china to be number one in my opinion

I think you went to far with your assumption but it's really hard to predict who will win especially with Trump having legal problems so even if he wins , he cannot pardon himself from jail as far as I know ( in case he goes to jail ).

I don't think the war from ukraine or what is currently going on in Israel and Gaza has something to do with Biden but as always USA has a very big influence across the world but saying that Biden is a war guy is kinda too much. I would say that Obama and Bush were true war presidents but things were so much simple back then and it's really hard to compare those times with the current times we are living.

The best option is to simply skip the USA election and just watch them because each party will say to the other one that elections are rigged...

Hahhaha Kinda agree with all of that I might have gone to far hahaha and watch a lot of conspiracy theory tho all of that is personal opinion and maybe some youtube words haha. I'm not a US citizen, and yes the Trump has a lot of legal problem but I don't he is going to jail hahah after all he is a businessman and ex-president he might have a lot of connections.

Wars perspective hmmm I don't know frenn but when trump in seat he seems talk with russia a lot and only hates china.

After all this thread for Presidential Election Bets! so feel free to watch or doing bets

Quote from: Hispo on May 31, 2024, 11:24:56 AM

There both good things and bad things about Biden and Trump, but if you analysis is that simple, I would personally advice you to read and sereach further into politics before putting money onto the table and bet for Trump

Agree with you it is oversimplified Grin

and I am aware of that tho. since I'm not a US Citizen Im might only do watch and see and take your advice

BlackBoss_

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Quote from: GxSTxV on June 02, 2024, 08:40:26 PM

The other hand, Trump is a good president when it comes to managing serious stuff, working only for his country knowing that he is already rich and not trying only to gain power.

I would bet on Trump even when the odds are low, but he has more chances against all other participants.

Trump lost the last President Election because of his approach and solution for public health during pandemic time even several months before that Election, Trump got massive advantage to win that Election.

Using the last President Election as an example, I want to say the importance of several months ahead before the Election in November this year. 5 more months and many things can happen which can change the support of USA. citizens for two President nominees. Trump or Biden can have advantage according to surveys at the moment but it does not mean they will continue to have it before and on the Election day.

It is too soon to predict anything about the Election and latest surveys show that two nominees are quite balance so votes received for nominees beyond two biggest parties in the country can decide the Election winner.

GxSTxV

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Even that Iam not an American to judge or have enough information about the presidential elections, though, I keep watching the television and News about America, but I think most population are taking Trump’s side this time after the terrible managing from the current and last elected president Joe Biden who didn’t offer much to America except his cold humor and transparent preseason in politics.
The other hand, Trump is a good president when it comes to managing serious stuff, working only for his country knowing that he is already rich and not trying only to gain power.

I would bet on Trump even when the odds are low, but he has more chances against all other participants.

Hispo

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Quote from: OgNasty on June 02, 2024, 08:09:03 PM

I’m still feeling good about my bet on the Donald. I should probably be betting against him as insurance though because if he loses our country is going to fall apart. I don’t think we’ve ever been at such a crossroads before. I’ll stick with Trump and stay optimistic. It’s going to be a wild six months ahead.

I would have waited at least until August if I were you to place those bets, but to each their own, I guess. I am not from the United States but traditionally there is what people there call the "October surprise",which usually can turn the scale in favor of one candidate and benefit the other one. Don't you think it would be wiser to place your bets after the October surprise of this year takes place? (Assuming there will be one, that is).
If the October surprise of this year is big enough to turn the tide against Biden, then I would definitely try to pocket a buck from Trumps expected victory. Otherwise, I will keep my money off the table.
I don't see the future and as close the election is, it becomes clearer to me who the likely winner could be for the next four years of administration of the United States.

I dont even understand the reasoning if people who betting on either Trump of Biden back in January or worse: in the last year. It sounds almost reckless or over-confidence on their pick..

OgNasty

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I’m still feeling good about my bet on the Donald. I should probably be betting against him as insurance though because if he loses our country is going to fall apart. I don’t think we’ve ever been at such a crossroads before. I’ll stick with Trump and stay optimistic. It’s going to be a wild six months ahead.

Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 64. (Read 15349 times)