Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 70. (Read 15310 times)

Actually, once you have studied the politics of the United States for a long enough time you can come to the conclusion much of the power of choice on the candidates for the presidency of the country does not actually reside within the will of the people, but rather much has to do with the will of both the Republican and Democrat party and their corporate associates.
There is a good reason why in all major new outlets you will never see a their party candidate to be fully covered, the hegemonic power of the Republican and Democrat party has chose to keep something like an status quo on the political climate of the country.
The objective is to keep the duopoly on politics in their hands, so they can funnel as much money as possible from donors. So while it is true in the end on the end each person is responsible for who they vote for. The situation in that country is specifically designed to erase third party competitors from the game.

I feel like the people who vote for Trump do not vote FOR trump but to vote against Biden, which is same for people who vote for Biden as well. People are trying to show why one candidate should be the president, but I believe honestly that showing why the other one shouldn't be the president seems like a better campaign method.

If you let me, I can write 10 page article on why neither should be president, which is sad for the USA but that is a trouble for the Americans. They are the ones who picked these candidates, not like these candidates came out of nowhere and forced on them, people of the USA hand picked these two old weird dudes as their future president, and both did their term as well. So they should pity their situation.

It is more about the way the Republican party has devolved since 2020 and the way of thinking of the current average Trump supporter has on the democratic process. Back in the day, Trump was seen as a joke within politics, before his candidacy was taken seriously, but know this time is different. There people who even believe Donald Trump to be some kind of political/religious messiah which is supposed to command a battle against corruption and wokeness, I can even tell how Trump himself feels kind of awkward when in events people approach them to pray around him, and ask God to protect him and give him a second term.
This whole movement kindd has started to develop cultist characteristics, which highly benefits Trump.
After all, Trump said during his first campaign back in 2016, that he could literally kill someone in bored daylight in a gun in the 5th avenue and he would not lose any support from his base. That is what he has been trying to achieve with his tight grab on the Republican party.

If not more support to Trump then it could be the case of Biden's declining popularity.

I also remember some people saying that he surprisingly won back then because the democrats only took him as a joke. They then made sure to come out and vote in the next election to put Biden in office. Could it be that the Republicans are thinking the same now - making sure they actually vote?

I am really amazed if Kennedy are indeed overlapping with biden voters. Considering what that guy is talking about it's really far from any democrat, but i guess i have to trust the analysis of people who have studied this. Personally i can't get my head wrapped around that.

And i would believe that voters of Biden would know why that student loan forgiveness fail wasn't really fault of Biden. I totally believe that could be still coming, if they find a waterproof way to deliver that.

With Gaza i totally agree with. I can't really defend his actions or lack of actions on that. At least he finally has said something how it should stop, but that was really bad call. But i don't have a clue that for how many people this is a key issue. But i am certain that they won't flip fully for trump either.

I doubt Trump has more broad support now then in 2016 when he was coming off his TV show fame and general idea of business man makes USA great etc.   The background picture now is not a cross country support based victory but more selective republican support.   Im not surprised his party cant field another candidate, he is the ex president after all but I dont assume others outside the party are switching to Trump.

If people are not switching to Trump, over to republicans as a vote and Trump has lost at least a bit of prior support from various negatives related to the court trials etc.   That doesnt add up to a win imo.

Trump cannot duplicate the surprise electoral college result.  Im going to be surprised if in an all vote count he has the majority and Biden is the minority, if I see that I will consider the idea again.   Trump isnt being elected but he is increasingly popular with some voters I get that.

Final point I have to remember myself, the bet and its odds especially in a pari-mutuel setup of betting has its own dynamics and trend to it.   Its a tricky one  I think the whole deal is interesting bet to do anyway, I try to stay neutral on the whole politics of it all of course.

I also think that Trump is going to win, he is also taking a very idealistic position, of recovering what the USA was before, and that the USA has a lot of power, well since the end of the Second World War things have been very good for the USA, I know adopted the dollar as the world currency, it is a country that is militarily very strong, I think that many people in the world would like to be in the USA, to be American citizens, who have certain freedoms to live, all of that can be something gratifying for many people in the world , and for the common American, I think they want there to be a Donald Trump who can offer him that strength and security that he tried to give in his mandate, and also that if the majority of Congress supports his ideas, because he will still feel inhibited from making decisions that he has committed, but at a global level he is a very imposing figure, and that is what they want to recover in the USA.

i choose trump as the candidate who will win this election. because i see that most americans are fed up with what the democratic party is doing to their country, especially the biden government which is positioning america as a weak and defenseless country against threats or attacks carried out by other countries. with trump coming back, it increases people's enthusiasm to be able to make america great again (even though this dream is actually just a delusion) but i am sure that in this election trump will win.

It is understandable, actually, if you think a bit about it. Most of people log onto their preferred casinos and bookies to partake in gambling/betting as a way to distract themselves from the issues of their daily lives, and one does not need to be a genius to realize politics is a topic which is not as appealing as professional sport leagues can be. It is a topic which is actually actively avoided by many, on order not to get stressed.
The fact the elections of the United States have some markets to bet in is due to its importance and wide red of implications to the rest of the world, in terms of geopolitics, otherwise Casinos would not even mind to offer liquidity.

If you take a look at the betting markets, elections have never been favored for bettors as widely as sports. Still, I am pleased there are some open markets for people like me, who are passionate enough on geopolitics and economics so we can put some bucks on stake and capitalize on our knowledge and research on governments, specially the United States'.

There is no perfect bet accuracy just as much as there is no perfect polling, its all done in estimate.   The simple answer to this question is the bet is very popular.   Trump supporters are very forthright in expressing their views and the degree of support for their candidate.   Contrast that to Biden where half his votes are purely because he is the banner head for the Democrat administration, do they love the man not half as much but thats their reluctant vote in some cases.
  Those voters wont be bothering to bet, they are just on the band wagon to some extent or other.  I dont mind the guy but he aint that exciting to even his supporters, is he the oldest president not sure not far off the record surely.

The Trump supporters do bet hence its become biased and probably poor value as the bet is in demand but doesnt make it all perfectly correct; I think we do all already know that.

Yeah it's kinda weird, the U.S. election only has a single market for the outright winner and it's put in the same category as politics and entertainment. In that same page also you can find Eurovision.
I did put a direct link in the OP. But if you're US based then you need stake.us.

I wish there were more markets for politics. For example to see how third party candidates will rank etc.

Nobody wants their taxes flying to another nation while their Government are failing to provide services to its citizens so I think this is going to be the major factor on who wins the next POTUS election. Also the Democrats that keeps allowing illegal immigrants into their borders and stealing jobs from the American citizens.

Here you go https://stake.com/sports/politics-entertainment/politics/outrights

I really don’t get where you’re heading to, but I think I should quickly remind you that, these thread and discussion are sent intended for any form of direct or indirect form of support of any candidate but these was just some sort of try to get some clue as to know who to bet on if during the fourth coming election and since we’re  in the gambling industry to make money irrespective of what and who our favorite might be, we’ll always choose victory over fav.

With all these been said, I think if you have any candidate in mind and you want it bold and clear, then you can go ahead to state it and I think that’s one way to air you support and campaign for him.

The mental health state of Joe Biden must prejudice his campaign a lot, since it's undeniable he doesn't have cognitive conditions to remain on the leadership position of the country anymore. Besides that, it's really hard to predict what american citizens are thinking right now, because the media isn't so vocal about politics anymore like they used to be in Trump's era. If I could launch a guess, I would say the average citizen is hopeless about politics and doesn't care at all cheering for one side or another, because they already know both of them, and both of them proved to be ineffective, unable to meet expectations.

If I were to bet, I would say Trump is going to win this time, as his fans seem to be more engaged than the democracts and their branch office mainstream media, which I don't even know if I can consider to be mainstream anymore, since they are pretty decaying already, while the Trumpist media is already rising in influence and dominance on the national scenario. After all, I see a polarization of liars and manipulators in both sides, which are inevitably going to drive the country in direction to chaos, consequently affecting the whole world in a scenario of pre-world war.

When you look the bigger picture in a global scale, the bet on this particular event or the money you could make from this event become meaningless...

Every country today is experiencing crazy elections that usually happen in 3rd world countries, we don't see this happen in US but since the start of Trump vs Biden last election, it's becoming the usual in the US.

That wildfire started by laser satellite is also rumored even today especially what happened in Lahaina, Maui in Hawaii where all the houses in the town burned and the stuff that is colored Blue wasn't burned lol  It was rumored that Blue isn't affected by this laser.

Also, the attack on the Capitol was already debunked, there were videos about what really happened in the Capitol. The horned guy was even escorted by the guards while touring around.

I have to qoute the entire discussion so I don’t get people from or poke nosing because it seems we’re already hijacking the thread 😂
But I was curious to know what your choice for the vote might be and your reasons for it but I think it wouldn’t be nice we discuss such here as I think your choice for a bet like this,  should be private and very personal.
I think a lot is happening in politics and previously, I thought it was just my country that was sick and infested with this political fraud but it seems it’s a global issue and rather than argue over the problems which we already know, i think we should ponder and start seeking ways to solve them.

I’m right in your pm senior and I hope we get a better relationship outside of the forum.

Actually, you are talking about the attack on the Washington capitol, which happened back in January of 2021. Trump was in the White House during the attack and no violence happened in the WH, only in the capitol gardens and within the offices of lawmakers.  Though, I don't blame you from withdrawing from politics, specially American politics, it can be truly a mixture of disappointment, lies, conspiracies, conspiracy theories and a lot of people brain washed for stupid ideas of one party of the other one.
I am planning not to get as involved as I am know, once Trump politically expires and he becomes irrelevant for the future of the Republican party.

Nonetheless, since we are here for the money, he ate only supposed to pay attention to news and events which could change the odds of those candidates, so we can make our sound choices on where to bet and how much to bet.

My Private messages are always open to anyone who wants to chat, so if you ever feel like talking something in specific, feel free to do so. Sorry for the delay in my reply by the way.  

I haven’t seen this on the Stake site. Where are you clicking to get these types of betting options? I guess I need to go search around the site more because I didn’t know there was a political section. I wouldn’t mind tossing some money on old Trump to save us from the woke mind virus if I’m able to.

I'm not from the states but I feel like, Whoever puts America first before any other thing would definitely win.

Whoever makes United States of America a great place for it's citizens. Not to engage in unnecessary wars that are not the core objectives of the country is bloody bullshit.

I read Donald Trump tried to do this and that and most people innit the states don't want him anymore. I've also seen folks who thinks that his relationship with Vladimir Putin is not as cool as it should be.
Also, for the sake of Bitcoin to thrive, we would need a president who can impose in good conditions that would enable Bitcoin thrive. Kennedy seem like a better option amongst the three major candidates for the office though but Donald Trump I feel like has got to still be the right man.

One major reason is that RF Kennedy running as independent steals many votes from Biden according to the polls. So there's once again going to be fierce competition in swing states for each candidate to grab electors.
And there's also many working class left-wing voters that feel as if Biden has completely failed them and their families with his promises.
Biden underdelivered on promises of healthcare and student loans which was a huge disappointment to many left wing Americans especially after the Biden campaign had shot Berlie's presidential bid on the foot.
And then there's also issues that are important for many people. For instance Biden underdelivered on environmental issues.
And also Biden grossly underdelivered on humanitarian issues where he continued to allow and promote a genocide to take place in Gaza... This especially has angered people so much that people heckle Biden about it everywhere he goes, in all of his rallies.

So really while Trump got overwhelming support from his Party's members, Biden seems to be losing people from his traditionally left-wing base all around, which is never a good sign. Many people will be voting third party or not be turning up to vote at all. So this is a situation that favors Trump who still maintains a strong base.