Topic: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! - page 72. (Read 15349 times)

Really, because the last time I checked. I swear I saw some news about the interest rates not interesting or actually going a little bit down, in the case of the United States at least.
To me, it would make sense the federal reserve under the presidency of Biden started to stabilize the interest rates, because of how inflation has deaccelerated lately. People are getting their money out their saving accounts and out the Treasury bonds, and pushing it all into stocks and other kinds of assets, like gold and cryptocurrency.
We could argue Biden administration has not been the greatest when comes to economics, but it is far from being the worst or even a bad one. In my opinion, the economical metrics do not lie.

Talking about the economic situation under both candidates makes no sense not because it favours one or the other but because it is bad in both of them. We have seen trump not put a stop to covid early on because he knew that his voters didn't want to be locked down and didn't want to wear masks and didn't want to get vaccinated, if he forced people to do that there would be a lot less dead people and yet he would lose and in the end he still lost and he still didn't do anything about it.

This is just the economical part and not the health part because he didn't do anything and that caused a lot of trouble economically for companies. Same goes for Biden in technical term, he didn't lowered the rates and right now nobody wants to grow, and just fine with interest earning.

It's true that the electoral system in the United States is such that doesn't mean someone with the absolute majority. Even Trump was elected in 2016 without a majority vote over Hillary Clinton who had more votes, but Donald Trump still won based on the electoral college system.

I think though Trump might have gotten a bit too comfortable because he didn't target the most important constituents after his first win. Especially he didn't do it as much as he should have to win again. Overall probably now though, Biden has disappointed too many people too. He didn't deliver on student loans, he didn't deliver on ending wars, he didn't deliver on better living standards for the working class... Nothing for the working man... Some people might end up voting for Trump out of spite.

Its impossible to count votes like that, the system is electoral college and not purely numbers like that.   This is the giant mess Press got wrong in 2016 in ignoring the complexities of the system and the division of votes in each region.   Its enough votes purely in a theoretical way but it its unlikely to work in any perfect case scenario to alter results just like that.   I would also argue alot of voters just stay away when they dont have their ideal candidate, think of all the people who wanted Bernie Sanders in a unique way quite a few wont find any reason to vote elsewhere just because a party orders them to.

I am not a political expert, but I have gotten the impression those people who chose to vote for Nikki instead Trump are more likely to stay at their homes rather than voting for Joe Biden. In the end, both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley were specially tough when they talked about the necessity of defeating Joe Biden this year in the presidential elections. It sounds rather difficult to me some of those voters will abandon the ideas of Defeating Joe Biden and go out to vote for him.
They could also end up voting in favor of some third party candidate instead of the usually Republican/Democrat political duopoly, though, but it is also unlikely.  If there is anything these lastest elections have shown to us, is how we are not supposed to trust on polls and predictions of the results, instead the most healthy thing to do is to wait for the results to come by their own.
Though, since we all are talking about betting on these elections, it is rather difficult not to draw conclusions from news and analysis like that one, one must resist the temptation however, for the sake of one's wager.

Well, at this level, the way things are happening, they're focusing on it like it's a media problem and this has really kept people guessing about what's going to happen, how they're going to be able to do things later on, so in view Of these things, I think that Trump wants to eliminate him whatever from the presidential race, I see that they are using what they have so that he cannot reach the presidency again, it is clear that this type of thing is a Warning , I don't know. how much force they exert in the Colleges, but when the Colleges cast their vote they are final and there is nothing to do there, the voters in the USA will always have the premise of choosing the candidate who offers them the most things so that they can fulfill them and the country will go in a better direction than the previous one.

I do not think Biden has as much power as Trump, and that is a very good story , because I have seen that most people are for Trump, but they feel an air of shame in saying that they support Trump, these things are the that make us be very critical when reviewing events, because in truth there is no definitive line on which candidate they want to support in the US.

A lot of people are forgetting that Trump has a lot of pending cases in the US. Plus the fact that not a lot of Republicans are still that impressed of him. Even so, the huge guys in the Senate and House of Representatives are still fully supportive of the yellow guy and will do everything to make sure that their pet gets into the scene and run for presidency. I'm not comfortable with Biden taking the second term, much more Trump leading the helm of this nation again, but if I were given the choice to choose between the two, I'd take Biden and hope that Kamala takes the lead should Biden 'gets sick' due to his age.


Ahh, 3 million people is NOT ENOUGH to sway the election. Remember Hillary Clinton running against this guy and winning the popular votes yet losing the electorals? That can still pretty much happen so I'm not really confident about Haley's supporters.

Lets wait and see if that really happens. Both Trump and Biden are doing efforts to gain some of Haley supporters but Haley always mentioned that she will not support Trump so it could have an outcome on the elections. Still a long way to go and a lot can still happen.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/03/05/can-congress-disqualify-trump-what-to-know-after-supreme-court-keeps-him-on-ballot/

Wake up babe, new democrat shenanigans just dropped. So it seems as though democrats might be plotting to vote for a disqualification for Donald Trump for him to not be able to run in the presidential race. It's interesting to see this take place and be discussed as a realistic scenario. However the house of representatives is going to remain a republican majority as it is now throughout the presidential elections so such a vote is unlikely to pass when it would need somewhere around a dozen of republican votes to also pass.

Any Republican going against Trump right now would be dooming his career as well as his party. Trumpers got it their way, and nevertrumpers seem to have no other way other than to sit this one out waiting in silence.
The realistic scenarios where trump is barred from the presidency would require majority votes from both senate and house, which could even then be struck down. Especially after the recent supreme court ruling. So the potential outcomes where we'll see Trump being barred from the presidency have very slim chances at this point.

Something interesting came up. While Haley didn't have a particularly good run in the primaries, it seems as though more of her supporters (who are registered republicans) will be interested to vote for Biden other than Trump.
If we conclude that these supporters would get away from the party line and vote for a democratic candidate over Trump, then if Biden is alive by then (lol) it kinda shows that people might be underestimating his chances to win.

I get that there are many people very passionate about Trump but even among Republican circles he's been very divisive. Quite a few people like Mike Pence too, or any of the other candidates that appeared in the primaries, and we saw that they had quite a few select words for Trump. So it'll be interesting to see if these displeased voters would be enough to sway the vote towards Biden.

Right, that is something which I always immediately comes to mind when I see that graph. During the full catastrophe of the COVID-19 Donald Trump was the president of the United States, and the state of the economy because of the quarantine was going to lead to a decrease in the positions available within the job market sonnwr or later. It was outside of the reach of power of the presidency of the country the amount of jobs which were supposed to be created that year.
Regardless of whether who was the president during that period of time, the result would have been the same: a decrease of jobs.
Though, I do not completely agree on the remarks about the economy had it in the hands on the hands of Biden or a democrat administration, I believe the situations would be pretty similar to what we see nowadays.

Actually, Democrats blame Trump on a bad handling on the state of emergency during the pandemic, because how he initially refused to the quarantine measures.

LOL.. nothing can be more deceptive than this graph. Trump was the one who put economy back on track, but then the COVID pandemic hit the United States and a lot of people lost their jobs. And that is the reason why net job creation is negative for him. Biden took over during the recovery phase and benefitted from that. I would still tell one thing. If Biden was the president of the United States when COVID struck, then the American economy would have been in a horrible state by now.

The United States electoral system doesn't elect a president on an outright majority vote. As of gambling markets, I'd bet that gambling sites will close the market as soon TV channels and major news outlets call the winner of the election.

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On some other presidential news, the independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. says he's considering Aaron Rodgers for his running mate. I'm told those familiar with American football (not me) might find this funny...
https://www.businessinsider.com/robert-kennedy-jr-aaron-rodgers-vice-president-2024-2024-3

Mr. Kennedy is such an interesting candidate and it's uncertain from which major candidate he would draw most voters from. He's had interesting things to say on vaccines and the economy. But also holds quite the divisive stance on Palestine. It's likely that with his "anti-globalist" messaging he draws more right-wing minded voters, or at least some undecided center-left voters. Probably he'd do damage to both Biden and Trump if he was receiving more spotlight though.

I think he's one of the more realistic "third-party" candidates so if I could find a market on which third party candidate would get the most votes my money would certainly be on him.

I'm unsure about this discussion:
Many sites already offer the possibility of betting on a winner, but what is a winner?
Is it the candidate who received the most votes during the elections or is it the one who will actually be sworn in as President of the United States?

Recently, the judges, with a conservative majority, authorized former President Donald Trump to continue running for the Republican Party and will probably also be able to run for president.

If he can actually run for president, I believe he will beat Biden, but I also believe he will be blocked later for the crimes he faces.
In this case, what is the "correct" result of bets made in casinos and gambling sites?

Number one factor will be the economy, check this graph out for jobs creation:

While this might be some positive spin for Biden the reality is not something not always believed by workers on the ground.  I dont doubt the data is there as indicated in that specific layout,  if only because Biden came in after a pandemic and there has been some revival from that backdrop no doubt.   I personally feel many western economies are suffering and the effects are quite unfair because inflation benefits a few who can make debts work in their favor while being able to renew that debt at rates below inflation hence its a subsidy to their business usually.

Workers who are struggling to match bills with pay unevenly matched to inflation may not find this graph accurate to their own personal situation.  If that is true and enough people feel the economy is bad then Biden being upset in his reelection remains quite possible, its probably the most powerful simple factor there is to deciding success or not.

The issue with Kamala Harris is that she got very little spotlight during her vice presidency. I don't know if it's why Democrats chose to do so deliberately or if she was just not interested but the media didn't give her any spotlight. It's been all these years since Obama was president, but his wife is still more popular than the current female vice president, which is crazy.

So I kinda understand the rumors. If democrats lost Biden, then they would have to pick someone widely popular to replace him. The Michelle Obama pick kinda makes sense, although very unrealistic. Sometimes rumors make sense, simply because the alternative would be even more absurd. Can you imagine a world with Kamala Harris as president? Me neither, because it just seems like she was picked as a token black woman vice president and served absolutely no utility through her term.

I think its going to be the opposite. I think both are complete morons, but at least Trump is interesting. I don't think that people realize that no matter who is made president, they do not hold all the power. Their party gains a little more control and some agendas for the party are pushed, but the person themselves are not making all the laws or whatnot.

I think the USA was in better shape with the republicans in control.

I don't know the yardstick for given Donald Trump 1.7 odd and Joe Biden 2.55 odd, considering that the later is the sitting president and with the instrumentality of the states at his disposal in a democratic setting. I don't know the chances of Donald Trump at that election when they will unleash the media and the big techs against him like they did the last time. If Trump could be defeated as a sitting president, I wonder how possible it will be for him to win in the midst of the persecution he is facing. I will rather avoid this bet than take risk that is not too clear to me.

All the attempts to take out Trump from ballots and filing all the law suits but he still remains the strongest candidate to oppose Biden's campaign for another term. He may be guilty to some of the charges but the Americans may just want someone to focus on America first before the wars in Europe and Middle East. Not to mention the continues bickering with China and funding Taiwan.

It must be because the attention Michelle Obama has received in this presidencial campaign compared to the attention Kamala Harris has. If you pay some attention to the media on the United States, it would not take much time for you to realize Kamala Harris is the kind of politician who is easier to ignore than the average person in Washington. The media give even more attention to Nancy Pelosi, and she is not even the speaker of the house of representatives anymore, you know. The right wing media used to attack her, but she has become to irrelevant that, in the event Biden shows himself to be unable to continue with the campaign, the democrat party would never opt to push Harris into the White House, they would lose.
In that context, Michelle Obama is better recalled as the wife of the President Obama, and has showed to have more charisma when facing the general electorate, that is why she is preferred by bettors over Harris. They know the Democrat party are more likely to favor Obama than her, even though Harris is already into politics and being the second on command after the president.

It would be safe to say Harris is sort like the DeSantis of the Democrat party. You know she exists, but nobody pays much attention to her anyways. A very low profile.