Topic: 280 BTC total bets between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?) - page 17. (Read 46371 times)

Since Josh Zerlan of JoshZerlan.com decided to have bumping day #2 on what used to be a very civil betting thread until he devoted much time to trolling here, instead of doing whatever it is he is supposed to be doing to get millions of dollars of pre-ordered mining hardware shipping, I'm going to have to destroy his latest desperate denial-filled post line by line:



you literally say the opposite of what is true, and scream it over and over until you think you are right.  Since you started trolling, instead of backpeddling, I instead bet 25 more coins that you are a liar and running a scam company.  You are off the reservation bucko.  And again instead of backpeddling, I keep asking you personally to bet 20 coins on the statements you made here:  https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status.html  and you just keep refusing.  You can win a cool $500 from me (and from JoshZerlan.com, the official sponsor of this bet thread)

yes.  Painfully obvious BFL is legit.  They have collected millions, shipped no ASICs, and continue to take pre-orders, as many as who wants to order.  All day long.  Across all marketing channels.  Painfully obvious.  Anyone with half-a-brain.  I seriously don't think you are reading the same thread as the rest of us.





I think that's more than enough proof.  Case closed.


From:  Planet Earth
To:  Josh Zerlan
Subject:  Reality
Body:  you have not proved that you control 2000 coins in this thread yet.  Micon has offered you a 20 coin bet at terms from your words:  https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status.html and you refuse to take it.


He'll do 2000 or 100, but Josh Zerlan won't bet me 20 coins at my terms which are based on his statements.

this

He's basing it on the fact that Josh won't take Micon's bet that BFL will deliver to 5 people (who will provide proof of it) by March 15th. I think Josh won't take Micon's bet because he wants to prove that Micon no longer believes BFL to be a scam.

And how does that appear true?  What are you basing your statement on? The fact that the chips are here and in the bumping process. This does not seem so sure for me.

I am posting from a handheld so sorry for crappy typing. My point is that the only folks that will make any money from these products will be BFL. I have doubts they will bring any ASIC to market, but my interest is in the short term. Usually I would not care, but I think people are being manipulated out of their money.

BFL will not ship by march, that appears true at least.

I agree.  Mid-2013 seems reasonable to me (which is why I offered such a bet).  Regardless, Micon hasn't come out and said that that was a reason for avoiding Josh's bet yet.

OTOH, if Micon was still so sure that BFL was a scam, then he should be jumping at the chance to secure a 100% ROI of 2000 BTC 10 months from now.

One issue is the length of time coins are locked up. If you set end of 2013 as an end point, as long as BFL doesn't come right out and say it's a scam you end up having your coins out of reach for 10+months even if they don't ship anything and all the customers have abandoned them for other vendors. I understand Josh's reticence to accept March 15th given how badly BFL has done with deadlines in the past, but end of 2013 might be excessive.

It's obvious BS?  So you don't think BFL will ship before the end of 2013 either?  If that's the case, I'll take you up on that bet, any BTC amount you want (as long as I have that much).

Josh changed the terms of the bet because Micon has been stating that BFL is a scam from the start, saying that they'll never ship.  Micon doesn't believe that to be true anymore, and Josh is calling him out on it.  At this point, Micon is only willing to bet on WHEN BFL will deliver, not IF they will deliver, attempting to cover up the fact that he was wrong about them being an outright scam.

But Josh changed the terms of the bet quite a bit.  For one thing he changed the end date from this month or Mar 15th to December 31st 2013.

Also his device is transparent.  He is saying: "No, I will not take your carefully thought out 20BTC bet.  Instead I will counter with a different bet with different terms for 100x the amount you offered. And if you don't take it, then you are a liar.".

First of all this smells like a bluff.  But nonetheless noone is going to take a $50k bet with basically no terms in a couple of posts in a forum thread.  It's posturing.  It's obvious BS.

But I suppose it isn't obvious to everyone.

IC. I do not believe that engineers could be so grossly incompetent and you do. Fair enough. I can't accept the refraction problems, clock buffers, re-packaging and other missteps as actual events. If these are real engineering missteps and not lies then BFL should've fired a whole lot of people long ago, beginning with their COO.

Thank you SgtSpike.  You have summed up the entire problem with Bryan Micon's lying and scammy behavior in a simple post.  Of course he's back peddling and changing his tune now that it's painfully obvious to anyone with half a brain that BFL is no scam.  He's trying to astroturf his earlier stupidity by covering up the fact that he's claimed BFL is a scam and that we are going to run off with everyones money.  Bryan Micon is a liar and a scammer, end of story.  If he really believed what he was saying, as you say, he would jump at the chance to win nearly $60,000 US from me, since I am willing and able to escrow 2000 BTC.  Hell, I'm even willing to do 100 BTC but he won't take that bet, either, because he knows it's a losing bet and everything he's said is a lie.

It doesn't bother me because it wasn't malicious.  He gave his best estimate based on the information he had available.  That the engineers took much longer than expected to complete the switch to BGA packaging wasn't his fault or something he could have predicted with certainty, at least as far as I can tell.

...so when Josh says in early December that they still may ship in late December, then they still have nothing by mid February that doesn't bother you? Why are they still taking orders and advertising all over the place?

I find BFL's behavior and Josh's in particular very disturbing and untrustworthy, but I understand YMMV.

You know, I kind of felt the same way at first, but I actually appreciate someone who is willing to stand up for their company without worrying about any political-correctness or public-relations garbage...

To counter:

1) Based on your own accusations of BFL being a scam who will never ship, you should easily win the bet he offered.

2) If you believe your own statements that BFL is a scam, you would likely jump at the chance to win 2000 coins.  Why wouldn't you just take his monies?

Like I said, it goes both ways...

I just have to testify...

I've been lurking along with this thread because I find the technology, software, drama, and bets interesting.

But this Josh guy who is a COO of BFL?

He comes of as a giant tool.  If I was a person who had spent money on one of these boxes in advance it would make me very uncomfortable seeing him prance around acting like this.

just my B.02

this is a very good question, and will help solidify my beliefs about BFL:

1)  they totally used pre-order money as R&D monies.  The first whatever didn't work, so they gambled again.

2) http://news.yahoo.com/butterfly-labs-announces-next-generation-asic-lineup-054626776.html    This is a troubling press release.  Vague about who invested.  

3)  Sonny was convicted of Mail order fraud in 2010.  this doesn't mean the company is not gambling hard to try and make ASICs - I believe they are - but I also believe they are inept and doomed to fail.  

4)  the massive, and I mean massive advertising buys scare me the most - you haven't produced a product yet, but are taking in as much $$$ as you can.  that always smells scammy to me.

Either way I think it's a fraudulent product offering while taking pre-order money. One way or another the ROI will not be realized by anyone touching BFL.