Topic: 280 BTC total bets between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?) - page 18. (Read 46371 times)

It doesn't scare me.  Josh isn't taking your bet on principle. You've been calling BFL a scam all this time, that they were just going to take everyone's money and never deliver anything.  And now, it appears you're changing your mind, and you believe BFL WILL deliver something, just that it might be delayed further.  Josh wants you to admit that you were wrong about BFL being a scam and that you now only want to bet on how soon they will deliver.

So, you're trying to call Josh out on the ship date.  Josh is trying to call you out on BFL not being a scam.  And neither side is willing to give.  You both have valid points that the other side isn't willing to take the bet, because, theoretically, either bet would match the beliefs of both of you.  But both of you want the other side to admit that they were wrong about their initial beliefs.

4)  Josh Zerlan has backed down from a 20 coin bet that is within his posted timeline.  This should scare most of you with pre-orders: that the man posting the timeline won't bet 20 coins on the timeline he posted.  Oh yeah, and the 2nd independent ASIC maker started mining.   Meaning even if BFL did ship on the fairytale timeline that Zerlan is telling, they would come to market 3rd.  and remember Josh won't bet on it. 

shipped here as well.  I sent 25.00042000 

thanks for being a gentleman on this wager MrTeal.  Whoever wins, I think you, me, mrb, and sgtspike have set a really good example how to approach and interact with someone to place a legitimate, escrow'ed bet. 

You are.  This is not about delivering in a certain timeframe.  This about about BFL being a scam.

100 BTC that BFL will deliver ASICs.  I only put the 2013 timeframe on there so there's a definitive endpoint to the bet, even though it will be over long before then.  YOU are the one that is unwilling to make a wager, you want to add caveats and escape clauses, not me.  I want a simple wager:

100 BTC says BFL will deliver ASICs in 2013.  Simple, easy and to the point.  The fact that you won't bet any significant amount to back up your claim is a giant sign above your head screaming that you are lying.  You won't make the bet though, because you know you will lose.  So your statements about BFL being a scam are a lie, which makes Bryan Micon a liar.

Here's a quick update:

We are expecting the chips on the 8th. The Fab is still maintaining that it will be the 8th, but it could be earlier than that. We are planning on the 8th though, we will have the chips sent via overnight express to our bumping and packaging facilities in California (We are not going with the North Carolina facility, as they could not meet our timeline). We are negotiating with the California bumping facility to get tooled up and ready to complete the bumping process as fast as possible. We are targeting them for being ready to bump the chips on the 14th, but it could be as late as the 18th. It should not take more than 24 hours to bump all our chips and get them to the packaging facility, where it will take another ~24 hours (probably less) to package them where I will likely be couriering them to our assembly facility.

At that point it will take less than a day to assemble some boards, where I'll send the boards to a couple test facilities to make sure everything is kosher. This step will probably take 1 - 2 days, but may take less as we tweak things. Assuming everything checks out (and we have no reason to believe it won't), we will give the assembly house the go ahead to mount the rest of the chips, which will take less than 24 hours, where I will carry them back and/or overnight express them to Kansas City and we will begin assembly and shipping operations.

So it's looking like the week of the 17th for shipping, probably a bit later in the week unless the bumping house really pulls it together, we might be able to ship as early at the 18th, but that is pretty optimistic, more likely is around the 22nd or so.

Sent on my end.
https://blockchain.info/tx/62f558262ac319e1e6da7767ae18b393cd0c1f934c65d0fcf83350a89f2af568

Sent on my end.

So, at this juncture I've gotten my invite, and generated a payment invitation (prescript einvp).

I would send this to Micon, along with the address for the bet. I would ensure that casacius does not have this payment invitation. Once the funds are there, they can be reclaimed with any two of three parties between myself, Micon and Casascius.

Invites sent to both MrTeal and micon via e-mail.

PGP not needed, but useful if you wanted me to PM you the code via the forum instead of e-mailing it.  This prevents mods from having the power to exercise escrow agent authority and force an outcome, a power they probably don't really want in the first place.

The more I do this, the more I feel I should offer some web service, where for 0.1 BTC, I automatically issue a pair of escrow invitation codes... PGP-encrypted and/or e-mailed to the parties of your choice.  They could pre-select some other parties to be prospective dispute resolution agents.  This would allow people to engage in do-it-yourself escrow transactions all day long, and then I (or others) could charge fees for dispute resolution services, but only if there was a dispute... no dispute, no fee (other than the 0.1 BTC).

Of course, I have already released a program to do this for free... the difference being that for 0.1 BTC, you'd have the assurance that only a third party has both of the escrow codes, and is willing and able to make sure they go to a properly selected arbitration provider when necessary.

MrTeal, if you can provide me your PGP key and/or your e-mail address, I can send you an escrow invite code.

Hmm... I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that. I thought pulling it forward to before April 1st from the July 1st of the previous bet (also, my mistake it was mrb, not SgtSpike) was already significant enough. Even if BFL isn't a scam and their chips do come back working I think it's a tossup whether anyone gets a unit by the middle of March. There's already a lot of risk from the fact they very well could be a scam, or even if they're not the very real chance that their kludge of trying to modify their existing QFN designed ASIC to be a flipchip midway through the design cycle might fail and they need to do a respin and no one sees anything for another 3 months. I don't want to cut it so tight that tiny things like we didn't make it to the post office tonight or we forgot to order the right boxes push it back a week and I lose based on that, at least not for a 1:1 bet. Especially not when the thrust of the bet is are the BFL ASICs real or not.

I'll have to read up a little more on the cassacius process since I've only done a cursory read through on it, but it seems like a good way to do escrow on the surface so I'm all for that.

Are you interested in taking a bet below 2000 BTC, or only interested in intimidating others?

Sorry, this real-bet post got lost in the Zerlan troll noise on my radar. 

I am interested in this bet, and I think we will come to terms very quickly and have an escrow'd block-chain visible wager in a few hours.    I will Pm Cassiusus to generate us 2 invite codes.  I'm fine with your efficiency measurement, for the date why don't we meet in the middle at end-of-business on March 22nd?