The estimate isn't per 24 hours, it's per-block; right now, Europe should find a block on average every 21 hours, which works out to 0.41 BTC every 24. You should see your estimate creep up (possibly slowly) toward the point where it reaches the full .56 BTC per 24 hours (which would be .49 BTC per 21).
sorry to keep bringing up the same topic again, I just want to make sure I understand what's going on.
it's now exactly 72 hours of nonstop 240mh/s going to the eu-eligius pool. hashrate shows up in the pool statistics just fine, with the expected variations but pretty close on average.
now my total earnings for these 3 days are 0.8 BTC, whereas the calculator estimates 1.68 for this time.
Is this just bad luck with the pool? would switching to a larger pool (us eligius or one of the other bigger ones) help me getting (much) closer to the estimated rewards? less than half is kinda depressing