America's new debt ceiling - $19,600,000,000,000 - page 7.

d0om

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Quote from: Denker on October 24, 2015, 03:32:15 AM

Quote from: RustyNomad on October 23, 2015, 03:14:33 PM

Quote from: americanpegasus on October 23, 2015, 02:54:41 PM

Quote from: markj113 on October 23, 2015, 02:31:41 PM

America's new debt ceiling - $19,600,000,000,000 (thats in the trillions if you were not sure)

Thats $60,000 debt for every man, woman and child in the country.

Ticking timebomb waiting to blow, keeping the gold nicely polished waiting for the day

Can anyone extend this graph out? At this insane exponential (possibly exponential²) growth, when will we hit a debt ceiling of 1 quadrillion? I think it will happen much sooner than we expect, possibly as soon as 2030 at the current rate of growth.

Doubt it will go that high, its already way past the unsustainable point as is. Also seriously doubt whether most of that debt will ever be paid back. The central banks bargain on the economy growing itself out of the debt but cannot see that happening. Not sure how they are going to get it sorted out, all I know is that something big is on its way and it ain't going to be a picnic.

Also, don't forget about Europe, Draghi is trying his level best to catch up on his own chart, don't like being left behind.

Here a nice comparison between the two.

Shit, how did we spend so much in 2016? I mean, 2017 wasn't exactly a parade either.

DiamondCardz

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 07, 2015, 06:23:01 PM

Yes, deflation for me is monetary deflation: the supply of money shrinks. (in a keynesian system due to defaults, as the debt is the money itself)

In bitcoin we wont see that, we will see however price deflation, due to strenghtening: denominated things in bitcoin will shrink in price : both wages & expenditures.

We already see that: as bitcoin price went up, faucets pay out less, but advertising on faucets is also cheaper.

Uhh we almost definitely will see monetary deflation where the supply of money shrinks, Bitcoin being a deflationary currency is one of its critical foundations. Monetary deflation isn't as common in real life, if deflation does occur it is usually price deflation just due to a shrink of the economy and heavily reduced consumer spending.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: OROBTC on November 06, 2015, 12:24:15 AM

Deflation is not here yet. By my "working definition", deflation is a scarcity of money, where prices do indeed go down. Deflation may very well arrive if interest rates go up, banks accounts are seized or robbed (Bail-In), stock market crash, and/or other causes.

Wages can indeed go down in a deflation, see the 1930s in the USA. "Deflation" of another sort happened in the USA from about 1880 - 1910, as technology came along and LOWERED prices of consumer goods. In that case, "deflation" was a good thing.

Typically, inflation/hyperinflation happens AFTER a deflation, when the authorities get scared...

Deflation means different things to different people.

Yes, deflation for me is monetary deflation: the supply of money shrinks. (in a keynesian system due to defaults, as the debt is the money itself)

In bitcoin we wont see that, we will see however price deflation, due to strenghtening: denominated things in bitcoin will shrink in price : both wages & expenditures.

We already see that: as bitcoin price went up, faucets pay out less, but advertising on faucets is also cheaper.

RustyNomad

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Quote from: OrientA on November 07, 2015, 11:51:20 AM

Quote from: jubalix on November 05, 2015, 08:12:32 PM

sure the official interest rate looks low, but govs politically cannot move that up so much. They however are into QE and similar in a massive way which is hyper inflation.

Look at the house price increase in alot of countries, it has gone 100% in the last year or two. Where that's extra money coming from, well wages did not go up, so it through money printing via debt instruments such as loans. 99% of people simply do not understand the money printing part of the inflation equation.

Look at the costs of goods and services going up much much more than inflation of 2% or whatever it is.

The price of housing has risen a lot in many countries. But the inflation figure reported is very low. That is because house price is not included in the price index, only the maintenance cost is included. So the inflation figure is lower than we feel.

I read an interesting article the other day in regards to inflation and why the inflation figures that are reported are flawed and or not correct. The article specifically dealt with food inflation.

It essentially boiled down to the fact that many manufacturers changed the packaging of their products while at the same time decreasing the content of the item while the price stayed the same or only increased slightly. So [just an example] you might have been able to buy say a 750ml bottle of some kind of sauce for say $2 a year back. Today that same sauce is now in a 700ml bottle and the price is say $2.10.

So according to the inflation data where these products are monitored the price went up from $2.00 to $2.10 so an increase of 5%. But this is not a true reflection of the actual price increase. Before the sauce worked out at $0.0026 per ml while at the $2.10 price it's now $0.003 per ml which gives you an actual true price increase of 15% instead of 5%.

OrientA

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Quote from: jubalix on November 05, 2015, 08:12:32 PM

sure the official interest rate looks low, but govs politically cannot move that up so much. They however are into QE and similar in a massive way which is hyper inflation.

Look at the house price increase in alot of countries, it has gone 100% in the last year or two. Where that's extra money coming from, well wages did not go up, so it through money printing via debt instruments such as loans. 99% of people simply do not understand the money printing part of the inflation equation.

Look at the costs of goods and services going up much much more than inflation of 2% or whatever it is.

The price of housing has risen a lot in many countries. But the inflation figure reported is very low. That is because house price is not included in the price index, only the maintenance cost is included. So the inflation figure is lower than we feel.

OROBTC

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 04, 2015, 11:11:14 PM

Quote from: OROBTC on November 04, 2015, 10:37:38 PM

Or deflation FIRST, then hyperinflation after. That is a common pattern seen in economic history. And that scenario is my "working scenario", what I am trying to plan for.

And "they" get a chance to whack you both ways: your stuff is worth less in Round One (deflated), then when you start to hoard CA$H they whack your money in Round Two (hyperinflation).

It is important to remain vigilant and DIVERSIFIED! Because this will not end well....

Avoid debt too, it's a killer.

Well that is not deflation what you describe. Many economists dont know the definition of what deflation is and i see this in economy shows as well to be mistaken.

What you describe is a pump & dump scheme, deflation is not that.

Deflation is when everything costs less , in parrelel with everything else.

You cant just make wages go down, and then print money to pump up the stock market, you cannot call that deflation. That is more like theft.

Deflation is not here yet. By my "working definition", deflation is a scarcity of money, where prices do indeed go down. Deflation may very well arrive if interest rates go up, banks accounts are seized or robbed (Bail-In), stock market crash, and/or other causes.

Wages can indeed go down in a deflation, see the 1930s in the USA. "Deflation" of another sort happened in the USA from about 1880 - 1910, as technology came along and LOWERED prices of consumer goods. In that case, "deflation" was a good thing.

Typically, inflation/hyperinflation happens AFTER a deflation, when the authorities get scared...

Deflation means different things to different people.

jaysabi

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: DiamondCardz on November 04, 2015, 01:01:48 PM

Quote from: jubalix on November 03, 2015, 06:12:13 PM

we are already in hyper inflation, notice cost of living going up alot, exponentially.

Sigh...

I assure you, this is not the case.

"The latest inflation rate for the United States is 0.0% (unchanged) through the 12 months ended September 2015 as published by the US government on October 15, 2015."

Similar things in the UK too, we actually were in deflation for a short while. We are definitely nowhere near hyper inflation, we are infinitely closer to deflation itself.

I think those numbers are rigged.

The outpacing of robitics and automation caused deflation cannot be greater than the printed money that creates inflation.

So i think we are going to hyperinflation, not deflation.

If prices aren't hyper inflating, then we don't have hyperinflation. Does a gallon of milk cost the same today as it did yesterday? Then you don't have hyperinflation.

jubalix

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Quote from: DiamondCardz on November 04, 2015, 01:01:48 PM

Quote from: jubalix on November 03, 2015, 06:12:13 PM

we are already in hyper inflation, notice cost of living going up alot, exponentially.

Sigh...

I assure you, this is not the case.

"The latest inflation rate for the United States is 0.0% (unchanged) through the 12 months ended September 2015 as published by the US government on October 15, 2015."

Similar things in the UK too, we actually were in deflation for a short while. We are definitely nowhere near hyper inflation, we are infinitely closer to deflation itself.

sure the official interest rate looks low, but govs politically cannot move that up so much. They however are into QE and similar in a massive way which is hyper inflation.

Look at the house price increase in alot of countries, it has gone 100% in the last year or two. Where that's extra money coming from, well wages did not go up, so it through money printing via debt instruments such as loans. 99% of people simply do not understand the money printing part of the inflation equation.

Look at the costs of goods and services going up much much more than inflation of 2% or whatever it is.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: OROBTC on November 04, 2015, 10:37:38 PM

Or deflation FIRST, then hyperinflation after. That is a common pattern seen in economic history. And that scenario is my "working scenario", what I am trying to plan for.

And "they" get a chance to whack you both ways: your stuff is worth less in Round One (deflated), then when you start to hoard CA$H they whack your money in Round Two (hyperinflation).

It is important to remain vigilant and DIVERSIFIED! Because this will not end well....

Avoid debt too, it's a killer.

Well that is not deflation what you describe. Many economists dont know the definition of what deflation is and i see this in economy shows as well to be mistaken.

What you describe is a pump & dump scheme, deflation is not that.

Deflation is when everything costs less , in parrelel with everything else.

You cant just make wages go down, and then print money to pump up the stock market, you cannot call that deflation. That is more like theft.

OROBTC

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: DiamondCardz on November 04, 2015, 01:01:48 PM

Quote from: jubalix on November 03, 2015, 06:12:13 PM

we are already in hyper inflation, notice cost of living going up alot, exponentially.

Sigh...

I assure you, this is not the case.

"The latest inflation rate for the United States is 0.0% (unchanged) through the 12 months ended September 2015 as published by the US government on October 15, 2015."

Similar things in the UK too, we actually were in deflation for a short while. We are definitely nowhere near hyper inflation, we are infinitely closer to deflation itself.

I think those numbers are rigged.

The outpacing of robitics and automation caused deflation cannot be greater than the printed money that creates inflation.

So i think we are going to hyperinflation, not deflation.

Or deflation FIRST, then hyperinflation after. That is a common pattern seen in economic history. And that scenario is my "working scenario", what I am trying to plan for.

And "they" get a chance to whack you both ways: your stuff is worth less in Round One (deflated), then when you start to hoard CA$H they whack your money in Round Two (hyperinflation).

It is important to remain vigilant and DIVERSIFIED! Because this will not end well....

Avoid debt too, it's a killer.

uki

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 03, 2015, 12:12:44 PM

Quote from: uki on November 03, 2015, 06:33:34 AM

Quote from: markj113 on November 03, 2015, 06:13:55 AM

Doesnt that lead to hyper inflation eventually though?

As long as you have enough military force to back the status of your printed paper with the 'trust' of the creditors you are on the safe side.
That is, at least to my understanding, what the US have been performing so far with the US dollar.
At one stage, it may be very easy to get the things out of control, which may lead to hyperinflation among other problems.

Yes but they are losing ground in the middle east.

Plus the debt is going exponential, they cant afford another 1 trillion $ operation like the previous wars, so a civil war or some sort of civil unrest is more likely.

losing ground in one place, if that is really the case (really you think that the US is losing ground in the Middle East?) and it is not part of the deal, is not yet the sign of weakening. Once it is more like chain reaction it is time to get afraid. For now, everything seems under control, so to say, within the rules of the game that is played. I also wouldn't underestimate powers that be, they are very good economists and know how to bind the rules of the games to their advantage.
the debt (the celling) is still insignificant if the underlying assumption is: it won't ever be paid back.

OrientA

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Quote from: DiamondCardz on November 04, 2015, 01:01:48 PM

Quote from: jubalix on November 03, 2015, 06:12:13 PM

we are already in hyper inflation, notice cost of living going up alot, exponentially.

Sigh...

I assure you, this is not the case.

"The latest inflation rate for the United States is 0.0% (unchanged) through the 12 months ended September 2015 as published by the US government on October 15, 2015."

Similar things in the UK too, we actually were in deflation for a short while. We are definitely nowhere near hyper inflation, we are infinitely closer to deflation itself.

The house price inflation is very high in UK. The price of house is setting record quarter after quarter.

DiamondCardz

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Quote from: jubalix on November 03, 2015, 06:12:13 PM

we are already in hyper inflation, notice cost of living going up alot, exponentially.

Sigh...

I assure you, this is not the case.

"The latest inflation rate for the United States is 0.0% (unchanged) through the 12 months ended September 2015 as published by the US government on October 15, 2015."

Similar things in the UK too, we actually were in deflation for a short while. We are definitely nowhere near hyper inflation, we are infinitely closer to deflation itself.

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: Possum577 on November 04, 2015, 01:17:28 AM

Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 02, 2015, 07:44:54 PM

Quote from: Harry Hood on November 02, 2015, 06:24:54 PM

Not to worry!

The US Gov is hodling the bitcoin confiscated from Dread Pirate Roberts so a few more months of price appreciation and the debt should be easy to payoff, debt snowball style!

They already auctioned that, but who knows maybe they will introduce tax payments with bitcoin.

Then they will HODL that, and as the US debt grows, so does the bitcoin price, they will use that as a hedging mechanism to cancel the debt Cheesy

You think they didn't auction some of it to themselves or keep some of it?

Individual people? Maybe.

Collectively keeping? Not really.

I mean even a bureocrat, when he is not in office can do whatever he wants with this money.

Possum577

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Quote from: RealBitcoin on November 02, 2015, 07:44:54 PM

Quote from: Harry Hood on November 02, 2015, 06:24:54 PM

Not to worry!

The US Gov is hodling the bitcoin confiscated from Dread Pirate Roberts so a few more months of price appreciation and the debt should be easy to payoff, debt snowball style!

They already auctioned that, but who knows maybe they will introduce tax payments with bitcoin.

Then they will HODL that, and as the US debt grows, so does the bitcoin price, they will use that as a hedging mechanism to cancel the debt Cheesy

You think they didn't auction some of it to themselves or keep some of it?

RealBitcoin

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Quote from: jubalix on November 03, 2015, 05:59:18 AM

I dont quite grok the politcs of it,

however, debt is sort of immaterial in a fiat system as 0's are free to add.

eg 100

1000
10000000

10000000000000000000000000

etc.

The US can print its way out of anything. (by print I also me issue debt instruments etc)

Yea but the fiat money is representative of the economy (although not 100% correlation), but it still affects it very much.

The derivative bubble and other ponzi instruments, if the fail, no big deal. But if they start taking the collaterals: confiscate houses, cars, land, etc..

That will mess up the economy + a treasury bond default = no pensions & no welfare.

You underestimate the enormous damage it can cause when it gets defaulted.

OROBTC

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Quote from: OrientA on November 03, 2015, 02:59:04 PM

Quote from: Hamuki on November 03, 2015, 01:52:27 PM

The debt the US is in will never be repayed.

They dont understand basic economy.

Problem is just if they fall they take everyone with them.

They understand very part of the economy. They just do not want to pay back debt. That is the human nature. Unfortunately, the US has enough millitary power to make sure it does not pay back debt.

The debt was never meant to be paid back. The debt has been used as a tool by the politicians to buy votes (although that is very short-term thinking).

They cannot pay it back, so they will not pay it back. *

It may take a long time, but the US$ will fail, as ALL CURRENCIES in history have.

Gold and BTC are part of a good defense...

* $19.6 trillion / 320 million = $61,250 owed per citizen, that would be over $125,000 per taxpayer.

jubalix

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Quote from: markj113 on November 03, 2015, 06:13:55 AM

Doesnt that lead to hyper inflation eventually though?

we are already in hyper inflation, notice cost of living going up alot, exponentially.

But to answer you point, no, you just settle you debts with debtors, here you go here is 10000000 Trilion.

Thats' a FIat currency for you, the gov says its that amount by FIat, and the advantage to the US to being the reserve currency, it can print its way out of anything.

OrientA

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Quote from: Hamuki on November 03, 2015, 01:52:27 PM

The debt the US is in will never be repayed.

They dont understand basic economy.

Problem is just if they fall they take everyone with them.

They understand very part of the economy. They just do not want to pay back debt. That is the human nature. Unfortunately, the US has enough millitary power to make sure it does not pay back debt.

Hamuki

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The debt the US is in will never be repayed.

They dont understand basic economy.

Problem is just if they fall they take everyone with them.

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