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Topic: Analysis - page 267. (Read 941596 times)

legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
February 14, 2014, 07:42:14 AM


shameless self quote and /bump

Yes, using weekly for bollinger makes the most sense in bitcoin  Roll Eyes


i think u have some problems, go to a medic your eyes deceive you
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
February 14, 2014, 07:40:54 AM

No. Your point is valid, but using mtgox data as your main reference for current btc price is beyond silly. Unless you trade on gox. In which case: good luck Smiley

this is a new extreme https://i.imgur.com/R3Us5pq.jpg  but nothing new
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
February 14, 2014, 07:19:16 AM


shameless self quote and /bump

Yes, using weekly for bollinger makes the most sense in bitcoin  Roll Eyes

Looking at daily, which do you think might be more relavent? http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg180zigDailyztgSzbgBza1gSMAzm1g200za2gSMAzm2g20zv
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
February 14, 2014, 06:13:04 AM

Mt Gox is no longer a good metric for bitcoin price IMHO.  That said it is not meaningless.  Gox still matters, and it might just drag us down with itself.
so complaining only on the down side ?

No. Your point is valid, but using mtgox data as your main reference for current btc price is beyond silly. Unless you trade on gox. In which case: good luck :)
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
February 14, 2014, 04:34:10 AM

Mt Gox is no longer a good metric for bitcoin price IMHO.  That said it is not meaningless.  Gox still matters, and it might just drag us down with itself.
so complaining only on the down side ?
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
February 14, 2014, 12:27:06 AM

Mt Gox is no longer a good metric for bitcoin price IMHO.  That said it is not meaningless.  Gox still matters, and it might just drag us down with itself.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Moderator
February 13, 2014, 08:14:44 PM
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
February 13, 2014, 08:12:31 PM
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
February 13, 2014, 07:27:28 PM
What a mess happening  Grin Full anarchy

It is glorious to behold.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
February 13, 2014, 05:00:27 PM
What a mess happening  Grin Full anarchy
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
February 13, 2014, 01:59:41 PM

I'll throw this in: the charts continue to look bearish as hell to me, I simply cannot find a sign of reversal in them. Volume analysis (CMF) and bid/ask, on the other hand look very good right now, textbook divergence unfolding there. Make of that what you want.



That's what a bottom or top look like. Full on chart trend marked by divergences.

Also, basic situation where we know that btc withdrawals open up people will start buying btc.

You're awfully optimistic, huh Cheesy

Like I said, make of it what you want. I'm not calling reversal before I see some corresponding price action.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
February 13, 2014, 01:46:39 PM

I'll throw this in: the charts continue to look bearish as hell to me, I simply cannot find a sign of reversal in them. Volume analysis (CMF) and bid/ask, on the other hand look very good right now, textbook divergence unfolding there. Make of that what you want.



That's what a bottom or top look like. Full on chart trend marked by divergences.

Also, basic situation where we know that btc withdrawals open up people will start buying btc.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
February 13, 2014, 09:39:32 AM
Clouded the future is...

This much is clear
On my hands I sit ...

Chart still looks bearish to me too (maybe not $3.6 bearish  Wink)
But you are right about the big volume on the bid side on stamp in particular ...
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
February 13, 2014, 09:35:28 AM

I'll throw this in: the charts continue to look bearish as hell to me, I simply cannot find a sign of reversal in them. Volume analysis (CMF) and bid/ask, on the other hand look very good right now, textbook divergence unfolding there. Make of that what you want.

legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
February 13, 2014, 09:27:22 AM
Based on this I have realised that my bid at $2.9 was probably a bit low and have moved it up to $3.6, just above the .5 retracement  Grin

 Huh

IMO the market is about to end the first 1 / 3 of wave C. But I'm not sure if the dumping has finished for now or not.
The inverted disparity between exchanges is confusing my analysis. Bitstamp seems to have not dropped enough yet,
for the rebound that will follow (the upward 2 sub-sub-waves of the middle 1 / 3 of wave C) to be large enough.
MtGox seems to have has dropped too much to take another large drop before the rebound, and any significant rebound
would require resuming BTC withdrawals, after fixing the wallet malleability vulnerability. A fix may be available sometimes next
week, but in the meantime the market may panic further. For now the attack itself has been halted, since it has reached it's
targets, but it may resume when the exchanges will allow BTC withdrawals. Clouded the future is...
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
February 13, 2014, 09:03:03 AM


shameless self quote and /bump

Thanks for the bump
Based on this I have realised that my bid at $2.9 was probably a bit low and have moved it up to $3.6, just above the .5 retracement  Grin
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
February 13, 2014, 08:54:42 AM
i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it



info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp


have a nice day Smiley


shameless self quote and /bump
full member
Activity: 239
Merit: 100
February 13, 2014, 08:34:54 AM
I am not thinking of particular events since Gox or whatever other "bad" news is just some pretext for the price to drop back from where it started. imho its more about the democratization of bitcoin. We had a little spotlight on bitcoin for the last couple of month which is clearly not enough for its price to be stable at even 1000$ range. I kinda "fear" this will take a long time and people tend to forget it when only considering the last bubble to 1200$.

edit: hence, that "see you in 2017 or 2016 (couldnt recall it exactly)" call from OP seemed quite rational and fair to me (when it didnt at first). just need to give Bitcoin some time Smiley
Or maybe this sentiment is a clear demonstration of capitulation and end of wave C?

Though I don't like how the charts are completely shitting in on themselves with a clear bear trend and no reversal patterns in sight. Then again I'm just another sheep and my feelings are probably shared by the hivemind Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
February 11, 2014, 03:03:47 PM
@masterluc: i am starting to think you were right calling a "see you in 2016-17". not a bright future near term. many challenges to be taken care of before a sustainable 1000k price

What kind of challenges have suddenly appeared then? The recent dip has shown us a few things;

- Mt.Gox are even more childish and unprofessional then we might have thought, as shown by their latest press-release.

- There are idiots selling several thousands of BTC on BTC-e which gave a lot of people extremely cheap coins.

What has really changed?  

I am not thinking of particular events since Gox or whatever other "bad" news is just some pretext for the price to drop back from where it started. imho its more about the democratization of bitcoin. We had a little spotlight on bitcoin for the last couple of month which is clearly not enough for its price to be stable at even 1000$ range. I kinda "fear" this will take a long time and people tend to forget it when only considering the last bubble to 1200$.

edit: hence, that "see you in 2017 or 2016 (couldnt recall it exactly)" call from OP seemed quite rational and fair to me (when it didnt at first). just need to give Bitcoin some time Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 353
Merit: 251
February 10, 2014, 07:49:12 PM
@masterluc: i am starting to think you were right calling a "see you in 2016-17". not a bright future near term. many challenges to be taken care of before a sustainable 1000k price

What kind of challenges have suddenly appeared then? The recent dip has shown us a few things;

- Mt.Gox are even more childish and unprofessional then we might have thought, as shown by their latest press-release.

- There are idiots selling several thousands of BTC on BTC-e which gave a lot of people extremely cheap coins.

What has really changed? 
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