Analysis - page 269. | Bitcointalksearch.org

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

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Quote from: Dragonkiller on February 07, 2014, 07:07:58 AM

Quote from: N12 on February 07, 2014, 06:46:37 AM

Quote from: masterluc on February 07, 2014, 04:27:18 AM

Time to buy (short term) Grin

Indeed time to begin, but probably not only short term for me. Cheesy

So, "good news" guys, how do you explain all of this despite the "good news"? Learn to realize it, markets are made up of people and people make up their decisions according to their emotions which in turn is the lense for EVERYTHING external!

I'm starting to believe you.

Do you know any good books etc on this topic?

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator definitely helped me. You could also read the shorter "How to trade in Stocks" where Livermore puts forward his actual method explained at the end. Right now I'm reading Fooled by Randomness.

Goomboo has a nice reading list.

If it doesn't have to be a book, I like http://www.babypips.com/school for learning technical analysis.

Dragonkiller

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 250

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Available Now!

Quote from: N12 on February 07, 2014, 06:46:37 AM

Quote from: masterluc on February 07, 2014, 04:27:18 AM

Time to buy (short term) Grin

Indeed time to begin, but probably not only short term for me. Cheesy

So, "good news" guys, how do you explain all of this despite the "good news"? Learn to realize it, markets are made up of people and people make up their decisions according to their emotions which in turn is the lense for EVERYTHING external!

I'm starting to believe you.

Do you know any good books etc on this topic?

BlackHayate

newbie

Activity: 336

Merit: 0

http://trekannoyances.com/worfs_half-klingon_teeth/worfs_teeth.jpg
IT IS A GOOD DAY TO BUY!

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1094

Quote from: N12 on February 07, 2014, 06:46:37 AM

So, "good news" guys, how do you explain all of this despite the "good news"?

The bubble is deflating, news can only trigger moves, but when the influx of new fiat into the exchanges stalls
and there are fewer greater fools willing to buy high, what happens is a normal market movement.

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1010

Quote from: masterluc on February 07, 2014, 04:27:18 AM

Time to buy (short term) Grin

Indeed time to begin, but probably not only short term for me. Cheesy

So, "good news" guys, how do you explain all of this despite the "good news"? Learn to realize it, markets are made up of people and people make up their decisions according to their emotions which in turn is the lense for EVERYTHING external!

lebing

legendary

Activity: 1288

Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: hdbuck on February 07, 2014, 04:58:32 AM

Quote from: masterluc on February 07, 2014, 04:27:18 AM

Time to buy (short term) Grin

short term? As if it can drop lower mid term?

yes.

hdbuck

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1002

Quote from: masterluc on February 07, 2014, 04:27:18 AM

Time to buy (short term) Grin

short term? As if it can drop lower mid term?

RHCwebhosting

newbie

Activity: 51

Merit: 0

Quote from: masterluc on February 07, 2014, 04:27:18 AM

Time to buy (short term) Grin

I agree, price dropped 30% in 3 days.

All indicators agree to buy. In all historical instances price retraces at least 60% of this type of drop

Like a Bungee Jump Tongue

http://images.clipartof.com/thumbnails/1208163-Cartoon-Of-A-Happy-Man-Falling-During-A-Bungee-Jump-Royalty-Free-Vector-Clipart.jpg

Was gleefully buying around $640 on Bitstamp Grin

masterluc

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Time to buy (short term) Grin

windjc

legendary

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Quote from: hdbuck on February 04, 2014, 08:53:33 PM

Quote from: windjc on February 04, 2014, 08:50:31 PM

Quote from: BrightAnarchist on February 04, 2014, 08:34:34 PM

1st impulse to the downside in stocks is complete. So we should continue to rally for a little while (a couple weeks maybe); if we don't immediately rally, then we will soon enough. Regardless, then comes wave 3 down, which should be significantly larger than the first decline - and taking the S&P into the 1600s or lower

Not sure when Bitcoin will follow. If not during this next decline, then it may be a few more months before Bitcoin follows (when a decline begins in the S&P that's yet another one degree larger).

I'm hoping that some of my favorite indicators will provide a bearish signal near the top of the rally so I can get some leverage in place before the next fall.

Yes because there is a case history study of how bitcoin goes down when the market crashes. Except, there's not and what your are hoping for is pure speculation.

It's funny. People act like money is created or destroyed when stock markets go down. Buts it's not. The money just leaves and goes somewhere else.

Assuming stock markets are based on money supply and not just meaningless numbers.

Right. Assuming that stock numbers are not just made up by some supreme being and because they are bought and sold with money. Roll Eyes

BrightAnarchist

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Activity: 853

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Quote from: windjc on February 04, 2014, 08:50:31 PM

Yes because there is a case history study of how bitcoin goes down when the market crashes. Except, there's not and what your are hoping for is pure speculation.

Yerp. And what forum section are we in, again? Grin

hdbuck

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1002

Quote from: windjc on February 04, 2014, 08:50:31 PM

Quote from: BrightAnarchist on February 04, 2014, 08:34:34 PM

1st impulse to the downside in stocks is complete. So we should continue to rally for a little while (a couple weeks maybe); if we don't immediately rally, then we will soon enough. Regardless, then comes wave 3 down, which should be significantly larger than the first decline - and taking the S&P into the 1600s or lower

Not sure when Bitcoin will follow. If not during this next decline, then it may be a few more months before Bitcoin follows (when a decline begins in the S&P that's yet another one degree larger).

I'm hoping that some of my favorite indicators will provide a bearish signal near the top of the rally so I can get some leverage in place before the next fall.

Yes because there is a case history study of how bitcoin goes down when the market crashes. Except, there's not and what your are hoping for is pure speculation.

It's funny. People act like money is created or destroyed when stock markets go down. Buts it's not. The money just leaves and goes somewhere else.

Assuming stock markets are based on money supply and not just meaningless numbers.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: BrightAnarchist on February 04, 2014, 08:34:34 PM

1st impulse to the downside in stocks is complete. So we should continue to rally for a little while (a couple weeks maybe); if we don't immediately rally, then we will soon enough. Regardless, then comes wave 3 down, which should be significantly larger than the first decline - and taking the S&P into the 1600s or lower

Not sure when Bitcoin will follow. If not during this next decline, then it may be a few more months before Bitcoin follows (when a decline begins in the S&P that's yet another one degree larger).

I'm hoping that some of my favorite indicators will provide a bearish signal near the top of the rally so I can get some leverage in place before the next fall.

Yes because there is a case history study of how bitcoin goes down when the market crashes. Except, there's not and what your are hoping for is pure speculation.

It's funny. People act like money is created or destroyed when stock markets go down. Buts it's not. The money just leaves and goes somewhere else.

BrightAnarchist

donator

Activity: 853

Merit: 1000

1st impulse to the downside in stocks is complete. So we should continue to rally for a little while (a couple weeks maybe); if we don't immediately rally, then we will soon enough. Regardless, then comes wave 3 down, which should be significantly larger than the first decline - and taking the S&P into the 1600s or lower

Not sure when Bitcoin will follow. If not during this next decline, then it may be a few more months before Bitcoin follows (when a decline begins in the S&P that's yet another one degree larger).

I'm hoping that some of my favorite indicators will provide a bearish signal near the top of the rally so I can get some leverage in place before the next fall.

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

@ElectricMucus
I think triangles.wegdes,flags and pennants are quite good forecasting possible breakouts. Most breakouts follow the previous underlying and dominating trenddirection.
Since 2011 we have a very bullish uptrend and even SR and China could not endanger this trend.

And the breakout we were discussing was the Charly Shrem-case. Those extraordinary events can be ignored or called false breakouts.
Particularly as they are corrected in few hours.

Now we have many midterm-or short-term TA which are very difficult due to the unbelievable dynamic of the BTC-Pricemovements.
And ,additionaly aggravating is the fact, we are in a lateral movement which is difficult to trade and to forecast the outcome.

So,as I think we keep this lateral movement perhaps for the next 2-4 month I do not very much TA but wait for more bullish times.

In tradingview.com I will do some Charts just for fun not for publishing.

segeln

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Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: ElectricMucus on February 01, 2014, 06:58:03 PM

Keep in mind that even so that is only true in hindsight, and the wedge has been broken already on both sides even with the moving average before. You can redraw it ad infinitum until the support/resistance level. That's why I think drawing triangles doesn't help in determining breakouts.

perhaps tomorrow more. I am tired , but thanks anyway

ElectricMucus

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Marketing manager - GO MP

Keep in mind that even so that is only true in hindsight, and the wedge has been broken already on both sides even with the moving average before. You can redraw it ad infinitum until the support/resistance level. That's why I think drawing triangles doesn't help in determining breakouts.

here is the "completely right" version which shows a breakout of a bearish wedge.

As you see it did "break out" a portion of the now larger wedge before, that's why I don't see them as helpful.

ElectricMucus

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Marketing manager - GO MP

That's only true if you aren't drawing it from the candlewicks (price extrema). And in that case you should use some sort of volume averaging, weighted moving average for example.

Here is how that would look like, suddenly this flat wedge becomes a falling wedge however...

But it's more straight forward to use trading channels instead, tradingview even provides an automated linear regression tool for them.

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: ElectricMucus on February 01, 2014, 06:24:30 PM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 31, 2014, 07:45:24 AM

Noob question, but can't the bear triangle be seen as valid still if the whale dump is dismissed as overreaction/false breakout/artificial price movement? Or does this have to be taken into account regardless?

Because I still see the pattern of gradually lower highs approaching the static support line. Surely this is a bearish sign?

I would stop using that triangle to look for a upwards breakout after it dipped below the lower bound. At this point it becomes utterly useless.

not mandarory if the dip was very short (< 1 day)

ElectricMucus

legendary

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Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 31, 2014, 07:45:24 AM

Noob question, but can't the bear triangle be seen as valid still if the whale dump is dismissed as overreaction/false breakout/artificial price movement? Or does this have to be taken into account regardless?

Because I still see the pattern of gradually lower highs approaching the static support line. Surely this is a bearish sign?

I would stop using that triangle to look for a upwards breakout after it dipped below the lower bound. At this point it becomes utterly useless.

Topic: Analysis - page 269. (Read 941563 times)