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Topic: Analysis - page 270. (Read 941596 times)

sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
February 01, 2014, 05:06:00 PM

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.

Nope, this is common knowledge now (for almost a year) and if it happens won't have as much of an effect on a price as everyone is expecting. Everybody is aware of this thing, even newbies - meaning it is priced in.

I think you should be more worried about countries banning btc, lagging development of btc features and the fact that a few years went by and btc ecosystem is still full of idiots, speculators and scammers.

Ya this has been priced in since may of last year pretty much. Gox could die and very few people in the community would really care.
bolded to emphasize who else might care
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
February 01, 2014, 05:59:35 AM

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.

Nope, this is common knowledge now (for almost a year) and if it happens won't have as much of an effect on a price as everyone is expecting. Everybody is aware of this thing, even newbies - meaning it is priced in.

I think you should be more worried about countries banning btc, lagging development of btc features and the fact that a few years went by and btc ecosystem is still full of idiots, speculators and scammers.

Ya this has been priced in since may of last year pretty much. Gox could die and very few people in the community would really care.
hero member
Activity: 538
Merit: 500
February 01, 2014, 03:42:32 AM

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.

Nope, this is common knowledge now (for almost a year) and if it happens won't have as much of an effect on a price as everyone is expecting. Everybody is aware of this thing, even newbies - meaning it is priced in.

I think you should be more worried about countries banning btc, lagging development of btc features and the fact that a few years went by and btc ecosystem is still full of idiots, speculators and scammers.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
January 31, 2014, 09:18:31 PM

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

This is unfortunately a likely serious problem... And I know it's more fundamental than TA, but it is going to be a very powerful influence when Gox blows up.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
January 31, 2014, 07:57:39 PM
New thoughts.

So. Now I see three possible scenarios

1. Entering long bearish count.
2. Entering short bullish last wave (I still see it is missing) after completing some triangle,  or by starting bearish wedge to new ath
3. New. Entering long sideways range.

I see price failing leave daily bb borders for too long time. This makes me think that price may enter stagnation like it was jan-may 2012. But for a larger period of time. Probably till next reward halving like it was in 2012.

Now I watch for daily bb and taking decision to switch into range trading mode.

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

I thought you weren't going to be trading for another 3-4 years? Wink
full member
Activity: 239
Merit: 100
January 31, 2014, 06:45:24 AM
Noob question, but can't the bear triangle be seen as valid still if the whale dump is dismissed as overreaction/false breakout/artificial price movement? Or does this have to be taken into account regardless?



Because I still see the pattern of gradually lower highs approaching the static support line. Surely this is a bearish sign?
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
January 31, 2014, 05:45:06 AM
Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.

It looks like this is the case indeed.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
January 31, 2014, 05:38:38 AM
New thoughts.

So. Now I see three possible scenarios

1. Entering long bearish count.
2. Entering short bullish last wave (I still see it is missing) after completing some triangle,  or by starting bearish wedge to new ath
3. New. Entering long sideways range.

I see price failing leave daily bb borders for too long time. This makes me think that price may enter stagnation like it was jan-may 2012. But for a larger period of time. Probably till next reward halving like it was in 2012.

Now I watch for daily bb and taking decision to switch into range trading mode.

Also I removed mtgox from my graphs. It seems they trade with fake fiat they don't really have in backup which causes paradox price movements not confirmed with other exchanges.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
One Token to Move Anything Anywhere
January 26, 2014, 10:15:45 AM
Happy new year )

What I see? I see zig-zags, price in positive both daily and weekly BB. What could it mean? It could mean true ending diagonal, which never happened before. And also very fucking risky.






masterluc your E.W. analysis suggesting a significant upward break is mirrored by several other analysts. Can you add any more detail to your previous post?
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
January 25, 2014, 07:19:31 PM
Stocks are done

Bitcoin should eventually follow if the correlation is to continue

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LsIzu6Conxo/UuIDyll1kyI/AAAAAAAAAXU/SfTSPco2wKs/s1600/Dow_weekly_bearish_count_1-23-14.png
We've seen this call from you many times before. What makes this time more likely?
(Serious question, not sarcasm.  I am fan of EW analysis but have been burned on this call before many times)

the question is more serious will the market win ? or will the central planers win ? correction versus money pumping, sadly money pumping can go on for allot of time, so do like Peter Schiff bet on inflation bet on the FED side
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
January 25, 2014, 01:54:18 PM
We've seen this call from you many times before. What makes this time more likely?
(Serious question, not sarcasm.  I am fan of EW analysis but have been burned on this call before many times)

I would simply play it by ear. If the price doesn't bottom at SPX ~1550 (previous 2000 & 2007 highs), then this EW count has merit. If it bottoms at ~1550 then you pretty much have to assume that it'll revisit the highs. Furthermore, keep in mind that there are some other running corrective EW alternatives that allow for one or two more highs before a major top so a total collapse now is far from certain (i.e. I definitely wouldn't bet the farm on it...just yet).
legendary
Activity: 1291
Merit: 1000
January 25, 2014, 08:15:09 AM
Stocks are done

Bitcoin should eventually follow if the correlation is to continue


We've seen this call from you many times before. What makes this time more likely?
(Serious question, not sarcasm.  I am fan of EW analysis but have been burned on this call before many times)
sr. member
Activity: 353
Merit: 251
January 25, 2014, 06:41:49 AM
Stocks are done

Bitcoin... Bitcoin also needs money, which are being tapered. Bitcoin wide acceptance and millions sales on overstock & co means only one: people buy goods, merchants sell bitcoins in their announced volume.

That doesn't need to be the case since bitpay offers the option to receive e percentage or the whole amount payed in BTC and not just in dollars. also many people who bought something at overstock with their BTC replenished them straight away by rebuying BTC at an exchange.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
January 25, 2014, 06:26:32 AM
Well there is some correlation, but certainly no causation.  Bitcoin has dwarfed the growth of the stock market. Some economic aspects that would hurt the stock market would also hurt bitcoin, but to say that it would stop bitcoins price ascent - well, there just isn't any data to predict that. The last great economic fallout was before bitcoin and actually spawned bitcoin. So, this is mere speculation at best. Although, I suppose, this is the perfect forum for it. Wink

Well in a credit crunch and a stock market crash we will see deflation all over the globe, so everyone will be pretty much running for cash. This will most likely also count for Bitcoin at this point, as it is not a real substitute for fiat just yet. So I would expect a big drop in bitcoin value if this happens, but it will be shortlived imo as QE will be going to the moon in reaction to this and the realization will settle in that fiat is done for.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
January 24, 2014, 11:30:08 PM
Stocks are done

Bitcoin should eventually follow if the correlation is to continue



Yep, because bitcoin is just a stock.

In the last 5 years Bitcoin has held pretty decent correlation to the S&P. I only boxed the bear markets and consolidations to make it easier to see. With an exception of the $7.22 top in January of 2012, every consolidation lasted nearly identical amounts of time.



Well there is some correlation, but certainly no causation.  Bitcoin has dwarfed the growth of the stock market. Some economic aspects that would hurt the stock market would also hurt bitcoin, but to say that it would stop bitcoins price ascent - well, there just isn't any data to predict that. The last great economic fallout was before bitcoin and actually spawned bitcoin. So, this is mere speculation at best. Although, I suppose, this is the perfect forum for it. Wink
hero member
Activity: 661
Merit: 500
January 24, 2014, 10:43:23 PM
Stocks are done?  Fed funds rate still at 0-.25% or something.  Stocks won't be done for a bit longer me thinks.  Good buy opportunities.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
January 24, 2014, 10:38:10 PM
Stocks are done
I'm worry too about this move. January nears to end as well as start of qe tapering. As I said, no money - no honey.

US treasuries rates are about to take off.

I don't like this.

Bitcoin... Bitcoin also needs money, which are being tapered. Bitcoin wide acceptance and millions sales on overstock & co means only one: people buy goods, merchants sell bitcoins in their announced volume.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
January 24, 2014, 10:36:49 PM
In the last 5 years Bitcoin has held pretty decent correlation to the S&P.

The correlation with QE & LTROs would be a lot better.  Then you'd be getting to the meat.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
January 24, 2014, 10:35:03 PM
[img]

That is a well-defined complex system.  Analysis of such systems is challenging, perhaps, but the possibility is very motivating.
full member
Activity: 143
Merit: 100
January 24, 2014, 08:57:37 PM
Stocks are done

Bitcoin should eventually follow if the correlation is to continue



Yep, because bitcoin is just a stock.

In the last 5 years Bitcoin has held pretty decent correlation to the S&P. I only boxed the bear markets and consolidations to make it easier to see. With an exception of the $7.22 top in January of 2012, every consolidation lasted nearly identical amounts of time.

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